Energy Use and Carbon Emissions: Non-OECD Countries
December 1, 1994
Introduction
This report examines international energy use patterns, trends, and energy-related carbon emissions since 1970. The main focus of this study is on the countries outside the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and on commercial1 (oil, gas, coal, electricity) energy.
Background: Economic Growth, Energy Consumption and the Environment
In recent years, there has been a growing level of concern that anthropogenic (i.e., caused by human activities) emissions of carbon dioxide and other "greenhouse gases" are contributing to global warming. (Greenhouse gases also include: methane; nitrous oxide; chlorofluorocarbons and related compounds; non-methane volatile organic compounds; and water vapor.) As a result of this concern, interest has risen regarding possible costeffective options to help reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Interest has focused primarily on limiting the burning of fossil fuels, which releases carbon (mainly in the form of carbon dioxide) into the atmosphere. One of the most frequently mentioned options in this regard has been reducing the amount of energy needed to produce a given unit of economic output. This option is seen by many as offering the potential for stabilizing (or even reducing) carbon emissions without sacrificing economic growth. A similar consequence could be achieved by substituting low carbon fuels (such as natural gas) for high carbon fuels (coal, for example), or noncarbon-emitting fuels (such as hydroelectric, nuclear, or solar) for fossil fuels.
Energy use and economic welfare are closely intertwined. More developed economies use more energy per capita than those which are relatively less developed. The process of economic development entails increasing levels of consumption of commercially-produced energy. However, historical experience demonstrates that the relationship between economic growth and energy use is not fixed. Nations experiencing similar paths of economic expansion may exhibit significant differences in energy use growth rates. Moreover, nations with similar levels of economic output per capita vary widely in per capita energy consumption. Additionally, nations with similar levels of energy consumption may have significantly different rates of carbon emissions. Examining historical variations in energy use growth rates and differences in international energy use patterns indicates that there is long run flexibility in the relationship between energy consumption, economic activity, and carbon emissions.
Energy Use and Carbon Emissions
The first part of this study, Energy Use and Carbon Emissions: Some International Comparisons (DOE/EIA- 0579), compared energy use patterns between OECD3 and non-OECD countries. The study found large differences between the two groups in growth rates for energy usage, carbon emissions, GDP and population. For example, non-OECD energy demand grew far faster than OECD demand between 1970 and 1992, more than doubling over the period. As a result, the non-OECD share of world energy demand grew rapidly, and would have surpassed the OECD share were it not for the disintegration of the Soviet Union and the resulting downturns in economic output and energy consumption in those countries during the late 1980’s and early 1990’s.
Similarly, Energy Use and Carbon Emissions: Some International Comparisons found that carbon emissions grew fastest in the non-OECD countries between 1970 and 1992. Non-OECD carbon emissions grew nearly 100 percent during the period---about four times as fast as in the OECD countries. As a result, non-OECD carbon emissions increased from 39 percent of world emissions in 1970 to 51 percent, in 1992.
Economic expansion and population growth in the non-OECD countries were the two key factors fueling this rapid growth in energy consumption and carbon emissions. Between 1970 and 1992, non-OECD energy consumption grew slightly faster than GDP, and about twice as fast as population. This contrasts sharply with the experience of the OECD countries, where GDP grew much faster than energy consumption and population. In both groups, carbon emissions grew more slowly than either energy consumption or GDP, although growth rates varied by country.
These findings in Energy Use and Carbon Emissions: Some International Comparisons highlighted the critical importance of the non-OECD countries. This report, Energy Use and Carbon Emissions: NonOECD Countries, builds on the earlier study and more closely examines trends within individual nonOECD regions. This is not meant to diminish the continued importance of the OECD in the continuing effort to reach consensus on a path for sustainable development.