World Energy Projection System Plus Model Documentation: Residential Module
November 20, 2017
Introduction
Purpose of this report
The Residential Model of the World Energy Projection System Plus (WEPS+) is an energy demand
modeling system of the world residential end-use sector at a regional level. This report describes the
version of the Residential Model that was used to produce the residential sector projections published
in the International Energy Outlook 2016 (IEO2016). The Residential Model is one of 13 components of
the WEPS+ system and can also be run as a separate, individual model. The WEPS+ is a modular system,
consisting of a number of separate energy models that communicate and work with each other through
an integrated system model. The model components are each developed independently, but are
designed with well-defined protocols for system communication and interactivity. The WEPS+ modeling
system uses a shared database (the “restart” file) that allows all the models to communicate with each
other when they are run in sequence over a number of iterations. The overall WEPS+ system uses an
iterative solution technique that forces convergence of consumption and supply pressures to solve for
an equilibrium price.
This report documents the objectives, analytical approach, and development of the WEPS+ Residential Model. It also catalogues and describes critical assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and model source code. This document serves three purposes. First, it is a reference document providing a detailed description for model analysts, users, and the public. Second, it meets the legal requirement of the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) to provide adequate documentation in support of its models (Public Law 93-275, section 57.b.1). Third, it facilitates continuity in model development by providing documentation from which energy analysts can undertake and analyze their own model enhancements, data updates, and parameter refinements for future projects.
Model summary
The WEPS+ Residential Model for the IEO2016 projects the amount of energy that is consumed by
households. It does not include the energy consumed in household on-road transportation, which is
covered by the WEPS+ Transportation Model. The Residential Model projects annual residential
consumption for nine energy sources in each of the 16 WEPS+ regions. The model primarily uses a
dynamic econometric equation for the key energy sources, basing the projection on assumptions about
future growth in gross domestic product (GDP), residential retail energy prices for seven fuels (although
the model includes nine energy sources, the renewable energy sources—solar and biomass—do not
have associated price paths), and a trend factor. The dynamic equation uses a lagged dependent
variable to imperfectly represent stock accumulation. The GDP and price projections are available to the
Residential Model from the WEPS+ Macroeconomic Model and the supply models through the restart
file, which is shared by all WEPS+ models. The trend factor is meant to represent continuing impacts on
energy use not directly represented in GDP and price. These impacts may include a variety of behavioral,
structural, and policy-induced activities. The consumption projections generated by the Residential
Model are in turn put into the restart file for use by other models.
Model archival citation
This documentation refers to the WEPS+ Residential Model, as archived for the International Energy
Outlook 2016 (IEO2016).
Model contact
Behjat Hojjati
U.S. Energy Information Administration
United States Department of Energy
1000 Independence Avenue, SW
Washington, D.C. 20585
Telephone: (202) 586-1068
E-mail: Behjat.Hojjati@eia.gov