World Energy Projection System Plus Model Documentation: Main Module
November 3, 2016
Introduction
Purpose of this report
The Main Model of the World Energy Projection System Plus (WEPS+) is a computer-based model that
evaluates and facilitates convergence of the model system. This report describes the version of the Main
Model that was used in production of the world energy projections published in the International Energy
Outlook 2016 (IEO2016). The WEPS+ is a modular system, consisting of 13 separate energy models that
are joined together through the overall system model in order to communicate and work with each
other. These models are each developed independently, but are designed with well-defined protocols
for system communication and interactivity. The WEPS+ modeling system uses a common and shared
database (the “restart” file) that allows all the models to communicate with each other when they are
run in sequence over multiple iterations. The overall WEPS+ system uses an iterative solution technique
that allows for convergence of consumption and price to a simultaneous equilibrium solution.
This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the WEPS+ Main Model. It also catalogues and describes critical assumptions, computational methodology, and model source code. This document serves three purposes. First, it is a reference document providing a detailed description for model analysts, users, and the public. Second, it meets the legal requirement of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to provide adequate documentation in support of its models (Public Law 93-275, section 57.b.1). Third, it facilitates continuity in model development by providing documentation from which energy analysts can undertake and analyze their own model enhancements, data updates, and parameter refinements for future projects.
Model summary
The WEPS+ Main Model is used to evaluate and facilitate the convergence of the system at the end of a
model run. This process is enabled by the communication mechanism associated with each of the
demand, supply, and transformation models to achieve an overall equilibrium solution. The economic
theory of dynamic markets underlies the methodology that modifies projected demand and supply until
they reach equilibrium. A second function of the Main Model is to calibrate WEPS+ projections to the
Energy Information Administration’s Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) world liquids consumption
projections by proportionally distributing aggregated STEO petroleum consumption to the relevant
WEPS+ regions and end-use sectors.
Model archival citation
This documentation refers to the WEPS+ Main Model, as archived for the International Energy
Outlook 2016 (IEO2016).
Model contact
Michael Cole
U.S. Energy Information Administration
United States Department of Energy
1000 Independence Avenue, SW
Washington, D.C. 20585
Telephone: (202) 586-7209
E-mail: Michael.Cole@eia.gov