World Energy Projection System Plus Model Documentation: Industrial Module

January 16, 2018

Introduction

Purpose of this report

The World Industrial Model of the World Energy Projection System Plus (WEPS+) is an energy demand modeling system that projects industrial end‐use sector energy consumption for 16 international regions. This report describes the version of the World Industrial Model (WIM) that was used to produce the industrial sector projections published in the International Energy Outlook 2017 (IEO2017). WIM is one of 13 components of WEPS+ energy modeling system, but the industrial model can also be run as a separate, individual model. The WEPS+ is a modular system, consisting of separate energy models that communicate and work together through the overall system model. These models are each developed independently, but are designed with well‐defined protocols for system communication and interactivity. The WEPS+ modeling system uses a shared database (the “restart” file) that allows all the models to communicate with each other when they are run in sequence over a number of iterations. The overall WEPS+ system uses an iterative solution technique that allows for simultaneous convergence of consumption and price to simulate market equilibrium.  

This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the WIM. The report catalogues and describes critical assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and model source code. This document serves three purposes. First, it is a reference document providing a detailed description for model analysts, users, and the public. Second, it meets the legal requirement of the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) to provide adequate documentation in support of its models (Public Law 93‐275, section 57.b.1). Third, it facilitates continuity in model development by providing documentation from which energy analysts can undertake and analyze their own model enhancements, data updates, and parameter refinements for future projects.

Model summary

The World Industrial Model of the World Energy Projection System Plus (WEPS+) projects energy use in the manufacturing, agricultural, construction and mining sectors for 18 energy sources in each of the 16 WEPS+ regions on an annual basis to 2040. The model primarily employs a stock‐flow accounting framework that uses exogenously‐specified output of specific industries as a proxy for productive capacity. In WIM, old capacity is assumed to be retired over time to make way for new capacity. This framework allows for the modeling of changes in energy efficiency over time. Exogenously‐specified energy prices impact both the mechanisms of the stock‐flow process and fuel switching projections over time.  

Model archival citation

This documentation refers to the WEPS+ Industrial Model, as archived for the International Energy Outlook 2017 (IEO2017).

Model contact

Kelly Perl - Telephone: (202) 586‐1743 
Paul Otis - Telephone: (202) 586‐2306
E‐mail (common): EIA‐OECEAIndustrialTeam@eia.gov
U.S. Energy Information Administration
United States Department of Energy
1000 Independence Avenue, SW
Washington, D.C. 20585

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