World Energy Projection System Plus Model Documentation: District Heat Module
January 17, 2017
Introduction
Purpose of this report
The District Heat Model of the World Energy Projection System Plus (WEPS+) is a regional‐level energy
transformation modeling system. This report describes the version of the District Heat Model that was
used to produce the energy projections published in the International Energy Outlook 2016 (IEO2016). It
documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the model and describes critical
assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and model source code.
This document serves three purposes. First, it is a reference document providing a detailed description for model analysts, users, and the public. Second, it meets the legal requirement of the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) to provide adequate documentation in support of its models (Public Law 93‐275, section 57.b.1). Third, it facilitates continuity in model development by providing documentation from which energy analysts can undertake and analyze their own model enhancements, data updates, and parameter refinements for future projects.
Model summary
The WEPS+ District Heat Model projects the amount of heat generated, by region, to satisfy the heat
demand projected by the WEPS+ Residential Model, the Commercial Model, and the Industrial Model.
The District Heat Model also calculates the total and by‐fuel energy consumed for the purpose of heat
generation. In addition, the model projects regional end‐use prices of heat for the residential,
commercial, and industrial sectors. The District Heat Model makes these annual projections for each of
the 16 WEPS+ regions, addressing nine energy sources: distillate, residual fuel, crude oil, natural gas,
coal, waste, biomass, geothermal, and nuclear power. Nuclear power is currently a placeholder,
however, and was not used in the IEO2016. Inputs for the model include distillate and residual fuel
prices from the Petroleum Model, natural gas prices from the Natural Gas Model, and coal prices from
the Coal Model.
The District Heat model, in turn, exports its fuel consumption and district heat price projections to the shared restart file for use by other WEPS+ models. Fuel consumption data serves as an input to the Petroleum Model, Refinery Model, Natural Gas Model, and Coal Model, while retail district heat prices serve as an input to the Residential Model, Commercial Model, and Industrial Model.
Model archival citation
This documentation refers to the WEPS+ District Heat Model, as archived for the International Energy
Outlook 2016 (IEO2016).
Model contact
Erin Boedecker
U.S. Energy Information Administration
United States Department of Energy
1000 Independence Avenue, SW
Washington, D.C. 20585