Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Other Petroleum Products Consumption Model
November 30, 2011
Overview
Most discussion of petroleum product consumption focuses on the five major petroleum products used: motor gasoline, jet fuel, distillate fuel, residual fuel, and liquefied petroleum gas. However, the third largest category of product consumption is ʺotherʺ petroleum products, which represented about 11 percent of total petroleum product consumption in 2010.
The "otherʺ petroleum product consumption module of the Short‐Term Energy Outlook (STEO) model provides petroleum product consumption forecasts for the United States for 6 petroleum product categories. The frequency of the STEO model is monthly and the model equations are used to produce monthly forecasts over a 13‐to‐24 month horizon (every January the STEO forecast is extended through December of the following year).
The STEO model contains over 2,000 equations, of which about 450 are estimated regression equations. The regression equations are estimated and the forecast models are solved using EViews Econometric Software (Quantitative Micro Software, LLC).
The other petroleum products consumption module, which is documented in this report, contains 7 equations, of which 6 are estimated regression equations. Some input variables to the other petroleum products consumption module are exogenous, coming from other modules in the STEO model or forecasts produced by other organizations (e.g., weather forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)