World Energy Projection System Plus Model Documentation: Coal Module
December 9, 2018
Introduction
Purpose of This Report
The Coal Model of the World Energy Projection System Plus (WEPS+) is a computer-based energy supply modeling system that is primarily used to estimate the retail and wholesale price of coal regionally. This report describes the version of the Coal Model that was used to produce the projections published in the International Energy Outlook 2017 (IEO2017). The Coal Model is one of 13 components of the WEPS+ energy modeling system, but it can also be run as a separate, individual model. The WEPS+ is a modular system, consisting of a number of separate energy models that are joined together through the overall system model in order to communicate and work with each other. These models are each developed independently, but are designed with well-defined protocols for system communication and interactivity. The WEPS+ modeling system uses a common and shared database (the “restart” file) that allows all the models to communicate with each other when they are run in sequence over a number of iterations. The overall WEPS+ system uses an iterative solution technique that allows for convergence of consumption and price to a simultaneous equilibrium solution.
This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the WEPS+ Coal Model. It also catalogues and describes critical assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and model source code. This document serves three purposes. First, it is a reference document providing a detailed description for model analysts, users, and the public. Second, it meets the legal requirement of the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) to provide adequate documentation in support of its models (Public Law 93-275, section 57.b.1). Third, it facilitates continuity in model development by providing documentation from which energy analysts can undertake and analyze their own model enhancements, data updates, and parameter refinements for future projects.
Model Summary
The WEPS+ Coal Model projects the retail price of coal, by region and end use sector, for use in the demand, supply, and transformation models of the WEPS+ system. In addition, wholesale coal prices are also estimated by region. The Coal Model projects coal prices for each of the 16 WEPS+ regions, annually through 2040, for six end uses (residential, commercial, industrial, transportation, electric power, and district heat). Inputs for the model include quantities of coal consumed in each of the end use sectors. The retail coal prices generated by the Coal Model are exported to the shared restart file for use by the other WEPS+ models
Model Archival CitationThis documentation refers to the WEPS+ Coal Model, as archived for the International Energy Outlook 2017 (IEO2017).
Model Contact
Brian Murphy
U.S. Energy Information Administration
Renewable Electricity Analysis Team
EI-81/Forrestal Building
United States Department of Energy
1000 Independence Avenue, SW
Washington, D.C. 20585
Telephone: (202) 586-1398
E-mail: Brian.Murphy@eia.gov