System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets - Vol. I, Model Documentation
August 1, 2003
Introduction
Purpose of this Report
Volume 1 of the SAGE documentation report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the System for the Analysis of Global Energy markets (SAGE). It lists and describes the model’s data assumptions, computational methodology, parameter definitions and source code. Volume 2 of the SAGE documentation report details the technology, process, and technology naming conventions used in SAGE
This document serves three purposes. First, it is a reference document providing a detailed description for model analysts, users, and the public. Second, this report meets the legal requirements of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to provide adequate documentation in support of its models (Public Law 93-275, section 57.b.1). Third, it facilitates continuity in model development by providing documentation from which energy analysts can undertake model enhancements, data updates, and parameter refinements as future projects.
Model Summary
SAGE is an integrated set of regional models that provides a technology-rich basis for estimating regional energy supply and demand. For each region, reference case estimates of end-use energy service demands (e.g., car, commercial truck, and heavy truck road travel; residential lighting; steam heat requirements in the paper industry) are developed on the basis of economic and demographic projections. Projections of energy consumption to meet energy demands are estimated on the basis of each region’s existing energy use patterns, the existing stock of energy-using equipment, and the characteristics of available new technologies, as well as new sources of primary energy supply.
Period-by-period, market simulations aim to provide each region’s energy services at least cost by simultaneously making equipment investment and operating decisions and primary energy supply decisions. For example, in SAGE, if there is an increase in residential lighting energy service (perhaps due to a decline in the cost of residential lighting), either existing generation equipment must be used more intensively or new equipment must be installed. The choice of generation equipment (type and fuel) incorporates analysis of both the characteristics of alternative generation technologies and the economics of primary energy supply.
Archival Media
Archived on a CD-R, July, 2003.