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National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Documentation Archive

International Energy Module - NEMS Documentation

March 30, 2020

Introduction

Purpose of the report

This report documents the objectives, analytical approach, and development of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) International Energy Module (IEM). It catalogues and describes the model assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and model source code that are used to generate projections in the reference case and side cases, as well as other scenarios.

The document serves three purposes. First, it is a reference document that provides a detailed description for model analysts, users, and the public. Second, it meets the legal requirement for the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) to provide adequate documentation in support of its models (Public Law 93-275, section 57.b.1). Third, it helps to ensure that model development is consistent by providing documentation from which energy analysts can undertake model enhancements, data updates, and parameter refinements for future projects.

Model summary

The International Energy Module (IEM), working in conjunction with the Liquid Fuels Marketing Module (LFMM), simulates the interaction between U.S. and global petroleum markets. It uses assumptions of economic growth and expectations of future U.S. and world crude-like liquids production and consumption to estimate the effects of changes in U.S. liquid fuels markets on the international petroleum market. For each year of the projection period, the IEM

  • Projects the Brent crude oil price
  • Provides supply curves for world crude-like liquids and each foreign-imported crude oil type
  • Includes exogenous assumptions on U.S. crude oil exports
  • Provides petroleum products demand curves for refinery region 9 (Maritime Canada and Caribbean region, see Figure 1)
  • Provides petroleum products import supply curves and export demand curves
  • Generates a worldwide oil supply-demand balance with regional detail

Model archival citation

This documentation refers to the NEMS International Energy Module as archived for the Annual Energy Outlook 2020 (AEO2020).

Model contact

Adrian Geagla
Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, and Biofuels Analysis
Phone: (202) 586-2873
Email: adrian.geagla@eia.gov

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