Outlook for Non-OPEC Oil Supply in 2010-2011
January 2, 2010
Summary
Two large categories define the world’s producing countries of crude oil and other liquid fuels (hereafter ?liquids"): those that are members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and those that are outside that group (non‐OPEC). This article takes a closer look at the latter category. After growing by 630,000 barrels per day (bbl/d) in 2009, EIA expects non‐OPEC liquids supply growth of 420,000 bbl/d in 2010, followed by decline in non‐OPEC liquids supply of 140,000 bbl/d in 2011 (the end of the current forecast period). In contrast, EIA expects world liquids demand to grow by 2.55 million bbl/d between 2009 and 2011. Based on past experience, the forecast slowdown in non‐OPEC production growth in 2010 and the projected decline in 2011 could have important implications for world oil markets.
Overview of Non‐OPEC Supply in 2009
Non‐OPEC liquids supply averaged 50.29 million bb/d in 2009, representing about 60 percent of total world supply. Non‐OPEC production is concentrated in a relatively small number of countries; just ten non‐OPEC producers represent about three‐quarters of total non‐OPEC supply. The largest non‐OPEC producer is Russia, which produced about 9.93 million bbl/d in 2009. Due to production cuts in Saudi Arabia, Russia was the largest liquids producer in the world in 2009. Other large non‐OPEC liquids producers include the United States, China, Canada, and Mexico.
Non‐OPEC liquids supply grew by 630,000 bbl/d in 2009, after declining by 350,000 bbl/d in 2008. U.S. total liquids production grew by 490,000 bbl/d in 2009, or about three‐quarters of the overall growth. The growth in 2009 reflects, in part, a large increase from a depressed baseline: hurricanes and pipeline outages in 2008 reduced crude oil production in the United States and Central Asia, respectively, exaggerating the year‐over‐year change.