World Energy Use and Carbon Emissions: 1980-2001
May 1, 2004
Highlights
Key conclusions of this report include:
The relationship between economic development and energy use varies significantly across country groups. In the OECD countries, real gross domestic product (GDP) grew faster than energy use between 1980 and 2001, indicating the developed economies’ increasing reliance upon comparatively non-energy-intensive sectors. In the majority of non-OECD countries outside Developing Asia, development and energy use remain closely correlated.
In the OECD, the ratios of energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions to GDP fell more rapidly prior to the oil price decline of 1985 – 1986 than they did thereafter. Between 1980 and 1985, the OECD’s energy and carbon dioxide intensities declined an average of 2.3% and 3.2% per year, respectively. The pace of decline from 1986 to 2001 was just under half as rapid for both ratios.
Declines in the developing countries’ energy and carbon dioxide intensities mostly took place during the late 1980s and the 1990s. The non-OECD’s energy and carbon dioxide intensities actually rose until 1985, after which they declined an average of 1.8% and 2.3% per year, respectively. Both ratios fell even more rapidly during the 1990s. It should be noted that these aggregate rates conceal the heterogeneity of experience between and within regions of the non-OECD. See below for details
Developing Asia grew rapidly between 1980 and 2001. During this period, Developing Asia experienced tremendous growth in energy consumption, real GDP, carbon dioxide emissions, and electricity consumption. Much of this growth came from China and, to a lesser extent, India.
Energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions grew fastest in the developing world in the 1980s and 1990s. Most of the growth in worldwide energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions over the past two decades took place in large, developing countries such as China, Brazil, India, and South Korea. A key factor in this growth has been the rapid growth in motor vehicle ownership.
The share of energy sources that do not emit carbon dioxide in the world’s energy portfolio increased over the past two decades. The share of non-fossil energy sources grew rapidly in the developed countries -- from 12% in 1980 to 18% in 2001. Most of this increase was due to growth in nuclear power generation. In the developing countries, non-fossil energy sources grew from 7% in 1980 to 11% of total energy supply in 2001. This reflects the development of nuclear sectors and expanded exploitation of hydroelectric resources. Fuel-use patterns in the developing countries were generally more carbon-intensive than in the developed countries over the past two decades. In large part, this reflects the larger share of energy consumption accounted for by fossil energy sources in the nonOECD. It also indicates the more carbon-intensive nature of the fossil fuels used in the developing world. Because of its reliance upon coal, China’s carbon dioxide emissions per unit of energy consumption were twice those of Canada, which possesses large hydropower resources.
Partly as a result of increasing non-fossil energy consumption and structural economic shifts in the OECD, the developed countries’ share of world carbon dioxide emissions declined between 1980 and 2001, falling below developing countries’ share. During the period, OECD emissions increased 15%, while non-OECD emissions grew 47%. Per capita carbon dioxide emissions in the developed world (12.2 metric tons per person) remain significantly higher than in the developing world (2.4 metric tons per person).
Natural gas is becoming an increasingly important part of the energy portfolios of both developed and developing countries. In the developed world, natural gas’ share of energy consumption increased from 19% to 22% between 1980 and 2001. During the same period, its share of energy consumption in the developing world grew from 18% to 24%. Natural gas is the least carbon-intensive fossil fuel.
Electricity use worldwide increased significantly faster than overall energy use, particularly in the developing countries. In the non-OECD countries, the rapid growth in consumption (an average of 3.8% per year) stems from population growth, rapid economic development, and rural electrification. The relatively modest growth in demand (2.5% per year) in the OECD in part reflects increasing use of computers and other office equipment. Even with the surge in usage, office equipment only accounts for a small fraction of total electricity demand. For example, it comprises between 2% and 4% of total electricity consumption in the U.S.1 Increases in electricity consumption in the economically developed world were somewhat offset by gains in efficiency.
Per capita electricity demand grew very rapidly in both the Middle East and North Africa region and Developing Asia between 1980 and 2001, rising 177% and 232%, respectively. In the MENA region, this growth took place despite falling per capita incomes. Despite their rapid growth, Developing Asia’s and the MENA region’s citizens still consume electricity at less than a tenth and a quarter of the OECD rate, respectively.
The role of non-fossil energy in electricity generation rose in both developed and developing countries. The change in the OECD’s “electricity mix” was more pronounced. Between 1980 and 2001, the share of electricity generated in thermal power plants fell from 68% to 60%. In the non-OECD, the reduction was more modest, from 73% to 70%. Most of the shift towards non-thermal electricity is accounted for by nuclear power.
The world’s electricity intensity changed relatively little between 1980 and 2001. The non-OECD’s electricity intensity increased modestly, while the OECD fell slightly over the period.