International Natural Gas Model 2011, Model Documentation Report
August 6, 2013
Purpose of this report
This report documents the mathematical formulation, database description, and programming guide for the International Natural Gas Model (INGM). The documentation conforms to EIA standards manual 2002-26. The report lists and describes the modeling assumptions, computational methodology, and source code. This document serves multiple purposes. First, it is a reference document providing a detailed description for model analysts, users, and the public. Second, this report meets the legal requirement of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to provide adequate documentation in support of its models (Public Law 93-275, section 57.b.1). Third, it facilitates continuity in model development by providing documentation from which energy analysts can undertake model enhancements, data updates, and parameter refinements as future projects.
Model summary
The INGM is a tool that estimates natural gas production, demand, and international trade for 61 regions covering the globe. It combines estimates of natural gas reserves, natural gas resources and resource extraction costs, energy demand, and processing and transportation costs and capacity, and it uses these data to estimate future production, consumption, and prices of natural gas.
Model archival citation
This documentation refers to the International Natural Gas Model as archived for the International Energy Outlook 2011 (IEO 2011).
Model contact
Justine Barden
Office of Energy Analysis
Phone: (202) 586-3508
Email: justine.barden@eia.gov
Organization of this report
This document provides the mathematical formulation, database description, and programming guide for the International Natural Gas Model (INGM). The documentation conforms to EIA standards manual 2002-26.
The report is organized into this introduction, three additional chapters and five appendicies. Chapter 2 focuses on the model purpose including key objectives and model inputs and outputs. Chapter 3 discusses the model rationale including the theoretical approach and the fundamental assumptions used for the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 2011 and IEO 2011 model runs. Chapter 4 provides more detail into the model structure including the mathematical formulation of the linear program (LP) used to solve for the market equilibrium and key algorithms used to determine the model coefficients.
Appendix A provides the model cost and efficiency assumptions and Appendix B provides assumptions used for asset capacities including near term and longer term capacity constraints. Appendix C contains a description of the database used to store the input assumptions and output results including names of variables used in the mathematical descriptions. Appendix D provides a programmer’s guide for the Visual Basic for Applications (VBA) code used to implement the model in Microsoft Access. Appendix E provides the list of references used in this documentation.