World Energy Projection System Plus(WEPS+): Global Activity Module
October, 2017
Introduction
The World Energy Projection System Plus (WEPS+) is a comprehensive, mid-term energy forecasting and policy analysis tool used by EIA. WEPS+ projects energy supply, demand, and prices by country or region, given assumptions about the state of various economies, international energy markets, and energy policies. The Global Activity Module (GLAM) provides projections of economic driver variables for use by the supply, demand, and conversion modules of WEPS+. GLAM’s baseline economic projection contains the economic assumptions used in WEPS+ to help determine energy demand and supply. GLAM can also provide WEPS+ with alternative economic assumptions representing a range of uncertainty about economic growth. The resulting economic impacts of such assumptions are inputs to the remaining supply and demand modules of WEPS+.
This report documents the analytical approach of GLAM that is used to develop the International Energy Outlook for 2016 (IEO2016). It serves as a reference document providing a description of GLAM used for the IEO2016 production runs for model analysts, users, and the public. It also facilitates continuity in model development by providing documentation from which energy analysts can undertake model enhancement and modifications. This documentation report is divided into two separate components.
Section 2 presents the structural models that make up the GLAM. These include
- Oxford Economics Global Economic Model (GEM); and
- Oxford Economics Global Industrial Model (GIM).
Section 3 focuses on GLAM’s interface with WEPS+. This section identifies the set of model levers and simulation rules used to operate the system. This section also views GLAM from the perspective of a programmer focusing on the ties that link the various models together to form GLAM and how GLAM communicates with WEPS+. It concludes with technical detail on the transfer system between GLAM and WEPS+.
Model archival citation
This documentation refers to the WEPS+ Macroeconomic Model, as archived for the International
Energy Outlook 2016 (IEO2016).
Model contact
Vipin Arora
U.S. Energy Information Administration
United States Department of Energy
1000 Independence Avenue, SW
Washington, D.C. 20585
Telephone: (202) 586-1048
Email: vipin.arora@eia.gov