Energy & Financial Markets

WHAT DRIVES CRUDE OIL PRICES?

An analysis of 7 factors that influence oil markets, with chart data updated monthly and quarterly

What drives crude oil prices: Overview

EIA assesses the various factors that may influence crude oil prices — physical market factors as well as those related to trading and financial markets. We describe the seven key factors that could influence oil markets and explore possible linkages between each factor and crude oil prices. We include regularly-updated graphs that depict aspects of those relationships.

Several graphs include projections from EIA's Short Term Energy Outlook. Graphs are updated with new data on a monthly, quarterly, and annual basis according to the schedule below. Analytical text will be updated as needed.

All graphs
Graph update schedule by section     Update frequency Last update
Supply: Non-OPEC    
Production & WTI crude prices Monthly 01/09/2018
Changes in production capacity & GDP, price of WTI crude Monthly 01/09/2018
Projected supply, annual average Monthly 01/09/2018
OPEC and Non-opec Supply disruption Monthly 01/09/2018
 
Supply: OPEC    
Changes in Saudi Production & WTI crude prices Monthly 01/09/2018
Spare production capacity & WTI crude prices Monthly 01/09/2018
Changes in production capacity & GDP, price of WTI crude Monthly 01/09/2018
OPEC and Non-opec Supply disruption Monthly 01/09/2018
 
Balance    
OECD inventories & WTI futures spread Quarterly 12/31/2017
 
Spot Prices    
World crude oil prices Monthly 12/31/2017
U.S. retail gasoline price, refiner acquisition cost of crude oil Monthly 01/09/2018
Crude price reaction to events Quarterly 09/30/2017
 
Financial Markets    
Average daily open interest in crude oil futures Quarterly 12/31/2017
Futures positions by producers, merchants, processors, & end users Monthly 12/31/2017
Futures positions by money managers Monthly 12/31/2017
Correlations between daily prices changes of crude & other commodities Quarterly 12/31/2017

Commodity index assets under management & Dow Jones UBS price index

Quarterly 12/31/2017
Composition of the Dow Jones UBS commodity index Annual 2018
Correlations between daily returns on crude oil & financial investments Quarterly 12/31/2017
 
Demand: Non-OECD    
Consumption & GDP Monthly 01/09/2018
World oil consumption, world GDP & WTI crude oil prices Monthly 01/09/2018
Projected non-OECD production, annual average Monthly 01/09/2018
 
Demand: OECD    
Crude oil consumption & WTI crude oil price Monthly 01/09/2018
World oil consumption, world GDP & WTI crude oil prices Monthly 01/09/2018