What drives crude oil prices: Overview

Understanding what moves crude oil prices is vital for informed decision-making across government, industry, and the public. Crude oil prices are shaped by a dynamic interplay of global forces, and have impacts on energy security, the economy, and consumers.

Here, we present an analysis of the seven key factors that influence crude oil markets, including both physical market dynamics and influences from trading and finance, and examine their connection to crude oil prices.

This resource serves as a guide for those seeking a deeper understanding of crude markets and the major drivers of crude prices.

Key factors influencing crude oil prices:

• Spot prices
• Supply from non-OPEC countries
• Supply from OPEC countries
• The supply demand balance: inventories
• Financial markets
• Demand in non-OECD countries
• Demand in OECD countries

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  The value of energy trade between the United States and Canada fell by 11% in 2025 to an estimated $137 billion, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau. Energy trade value is the total value of energy imports and exports between two countries and is driven by commodity volumes and prices. Most of the U.S.-Canada trade value is U.S. energy imports from Canada—$111 billion in 2025—rather than from U.S. energy exports to Canada, which totaled $26 billion last year. Crude oil accounts for the largest component of U.S.-Canada energy trade, making up 69% of the total value traded in 2025.

  Lower crude oil prices reduced U.S.-Canada energy trade value in 2025
  July 29, 2026

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  July 22, 2026

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Contact

• Petroleum and liquid fuels markets team
• eiainfopetroleum@eia.gov