Analysis & Projections

Short-Term Outlook Related

Market Prices and Uncertainty Report

Released: August 12, 2014

A regular monthly supplement to the Short-Term Energy Outlook with analysis of crude oil, petroleum products, natural gas, and propane prices. (archived versions)

Short-Term Energy Outlook

Released: August 12, 2014

Short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections through 2015 for the United States and international oil forecasts. (archived versions)

U.S. Crude Oil Production Forecast-Analysis of Crude Types

Released: May 29, 2014

This paper provides a short-term forecast of domestic production by crude type, supplementing the overall production forecast provided in STEO. Forecasts of production by crude type matter for several reasons. First, U.S. crude streams vary widely in quality. Second, the economics surrounding various options for the domestic use of additional domestic oil production are directly dependent on crude quality characteristics. Third, actual or potential export values also vary significantly with quality characteristics.

Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Electricity Generation and Fuel Consumption Models

Released: January 9, 2014

The electricity generation and fuel consumption models of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) model provide forecasts of electricity generation from various types of energy sources and forecasts of the quantities of fossil fuels consumed for power generation. The structure of the electricity industry and the behavior of power generators varies between different areas of the United States. In order to capture these differences, the STEO electricity supply and fuel consumption models are designed to provide forecasts for the four primary Census regions.

Winter Fuels Outlook 2013

Released: October 8, 2013

Heating costs for most households are forecast to rise from last winter’s level.

EIA Estimates of Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Supply Disruptions

Released: September 10, 2013

Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement: Energy Information Administration estimates of crude oil and liquid fuels supply disruptions

Status of Libyan Loading Ports and Oil and Natural Gas Fields

Released: September 10, 2013

Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement: Status of Libyan Loading Ports and Oil and Natural Gas Fields

Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Petroleum Products Supply Module

Released: May 1, 2013

The Petroleum Products Supply Module of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) model provides forecasts of petroleum refinery inputs (crude oil, unfinished oils, pentanes plus, liquefied petroleum gas, motor gasoline blending components, and aviation gasoline blending components) and refinery outputs (motor gasoline, jet fuel, distillate fuel, residual fuel, liquefied petroleum gas, and other petroleum products).

Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement: Key drivers for EIA's short-term U.S. crude oil production outlook

Released: February 14, 2013

Crude oil production increased by 790,000 barrels per day (bbl/d) between 2011 and 2012, the largest increase in annual output since the beginning of U.S. commercial crude oil production in 1859. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects U.S. crude oil production to continue rising over the next two years represented in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO).

Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement: Constraints in New England likely to affect regional energy prices this winter

Released: January 18, 2013

Since November, New England has had the highest average spot natural gas prices in the nation. Average prices at the Algonquin Citygate trading point, a widely used index for New England natural gas buyers, have been $3 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) higher than natural gas prices at the Henry Hub, and more than $2 per MMBtu higher than average spot price at Transco Zone 6 NY, which serves New York City and has historically traded at prices similar to those in New England.

Energy & Financial Markets: What Drives Crude Oil Prices?

Released: December 14, 2011

An assessment of the various factors that may influence oil prices - physical market factors as well as those related to trading and financial markets. The analysis describes seven key factors that could influence oil markets and explores possible linkages between each factor and oil prices, and includes regularly updated graphs that depict aspects of those relationships.

Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Motor Gasoline Consumption Model

Released: November 30, 2011

The motor gasoline consumption module of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) model is designed to provide forecasts of total U.S. consumption of motor gasolien based on estimates of vehicle miles traveled and average vehicle fuel economy.

Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Other Petroleum Products Consumption Model

Released: November 30, 2011

The other petroleum product consumption module of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) model is designed to provide U.S. consumption forecasts for 6 petroleum product categories: asphalt and road oil, petrochemical feedstocks, petroleum coke, refinery still gas, unfinished oils, and other miscvellaneous products

Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Macro Bridge Procedure to Update Regional Macroeconomic Forecasts with National Macroeconomic Forecasts

Released: June 1, 2010

The Regional Short-Term Energy Model (RSTEM) uses macroeconomic variables such as income, employment, industrial production and consumer prices at both the national and regional1 levels as explanatory variables in the generation of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). This documentation explains how national macroeconomic forecasts are used to update regional macroeconomic forecasts through the RSTEM Macro Bridge procedure.

2010 Outlook for Hurricane-Related Production Outages in the Gulf of Mexico - Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement:

Released: June 1, 2010

Projected impacts to Gulf of Mexico crude oil and natural gas production for the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season.

Probabilities of Possible Future Prices (Released in the STEO April 2010)

Released: April 1, 2010

The Energy Information Administration introduced a monthly analysis of energy price volatility and forecast uncertainty in the October 2009 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Included in the analysis were charts portraying confidence intervals around the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) futures prices of West Texas Intermediate (equivalent to light sweet crude oil) and Henry Hub natural gas contracts.

Outlook for Non-OPEC Oil Supply in 2010-2011 (Released in the STEO January 2010)

Released: January 2, 2010

Two large categories define the world's producing countries of crude oil and other liquid fuels (hereafter liquids): those that are members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and those that are outside that group (non-OPEC). This article takes a closer look at the latter category.

Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty (Released in the STEO October 2009)

Released: October 6, 2009

The Energy Information Administration measures price uncertainty in oil and natural gas markets.

Understanding the Decline in Carbon Dioxide Emissions in 2009 (Released in the STEO October 2009)

Released: October 6, 2009

The Energy Information Administration forecasts 5.9% decline in U.S. carbon dioxide emissions in 2009.

Short-Term Energy Carbon Dioxide Emissions Forecasts August 2009

Released: August 11, 2009

Supplement to the Short-Term Energy Outlook. Short-term projections for U.S. carbon dioxide emissions of the three fossil fuels: coal, natural gas, and petroleum.

2009 Outlook for Hurricane Production Outages in the Gulf of Mexico, The (Released in the STEO June 2009)

Released: June 1, 2009

Projected impacts to Gulf of Mexico crude oil and natural gas production for the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season.

Implications of Lower Natural Gas Prices for Electric Generators in the Southeast, The

Released: May 12, 2009

This supplement to the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) May 2009 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) focuses on changes in the utilization of coal- and natural-gas-fired generation capacity in the electric utility sector as the differential between delivered fuel prices narrows.

Biodiesel Supply and Consumption in the Short-Term Energy Outlook

Released: April 1, 2009

The historical biodiesel consumption data published in the Energy Information Administration's Monthly Energy Review March 2009 edition were revised to account for imports and exports. Table 10.4 of the Monthly Energy Review was expanded to display biodiesel imports, exports, stocks, stock change, and consumption. Similar revisions were made in the April 2009 edition of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO).

2008 Outlook for Hurricane Production Outages in the Gulf of Mexico - Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement

Released: June 10, 2008

The Energy Information Administration estimates of expected production shut-ins of crude oil and natural gas in the U.S. Gulf Coast during the upcoming hurricane season (June through November).

Motor Gasoline Consumption 2008 - Historical Perspective and Short-Term Projections

Released: April 8, 2008

This report reviews how gasoline markets relate to population, income, prices, and the growing role of ethanol. It also analyzes the structural shift in motor gasoline markets that took place in the late 1990s.

Motor Gasoline Market Spring 2007 and Implications for Spring 2008

Released: April 8, 2008

This report focuses on the major factors that drove the widening difference between wholesale gasoline and crude oil prices in 2007 and explores how those factors might impact gasoline prices in 2008.

Outlook for Non-OPEC Oil Supply Growth in 2008-2009 (Released in the STEO February 2008)

Released: February 1, 2008

In 2008-2009, the Energy Information Administration expects that non-OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) petroleum supply growth will surpass that in recent years because of the large number of new oil projects scheduled to come online during the forecast period.

Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement: Why Are Oil Prices So High?

Released: November 6, 2007

Feature article on the reasons for high oil prices.

Natural Gas in the Rocky Mountains: Developing Infrastructure

Released: September 20, 2007

This Supplement to the Energy Information Administration's Short-Term Energy Outlook analyzes current natural gas production, pipeline and storage infrastructure in the Rocky Mountains, as well as prospective pipeline projects in these states. The influence of these factors on regional prices and price volatility is examined.

2007 Outlook for Hurricane Impacts on Gulf of Mexico Crude Oil & Natural Gas Production, The

Released: June 13, 2007

Projected impacts to Gulf of Mexico crude oil and natural gas production for the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season.

U.S. LNG Imports - The Next Wave

Released: January 11, 2007

U.S. LNG imports - The Next Wave, is now available as a special supplement to the January 2007 issue of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Although liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports still account for less than 3% of total U.S. natural gas supplies, the global market is growing and the Energy Information Administration (EIA) foresees another wave of U.S. LNG import growth over the next two years. The supplement focuses on recent trends in global and U.S. LNG trade, and presents factors expected to influence LNG imports through 2008. EIA expects year-over-year increases in LNG imports of 34.5% and 38.5% in 2007 and 2008, respectively.

Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement: U.S. LNG Imports - The Next Wave

Released: January 11, 2007

This report was prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), in response to a September 27, 2006, request from Senators Bingaman, Landrieu, Murkowski, Specter, Salazar, and Lugar. The Senators requested that EIA assess the impacts of a proposal that would regulate emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) through an allowance cap-and-trade system.

Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement: Why Are Oil Prices So High?

Released: August 6, 2006

Feature article on the reasons for high oil prices.

Summer 2006 Motor Gasoline Prices (Released in the STEO July 2006)

Released: July 1, 2006

This supplement to the July 2006 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) examines the various factors that have contributed to this summer's high gasoline prices and discusses how they may continue to impact markets over the next several months.

Motor Gasoline Outlook and State MTBE Bans

Released: April 1, 2003

The U.S. is beginning the summer 2003 driving season with lower gasoline inventories and higher prices than last year. Recovery from this tight gasoline market could be made more difficult by impending state bans on the blending of methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) into gasoline that are scheduled to begin later this year.

Electricity Shortage in California: Issues for Petroleum and Natural Gas Supply

Released: June 1, 2001

This report addresses the potential impact of rotating electrical outages on petroleum product and natural gas supply in California.

MTBE Production Economics (Released in the STEO April 2001)

Released: April 1, 2001

The purpose of this analysis is to evaluate the causes of methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) price increases in 2000.

Natural Gas Winter Outlook 2000-2001

Released: October 1, 2000

This article is based on the Winter Fuels Outlook published in the 4th Quarter Short-Term Energy Outlook and discusses the supply and demand outlook from October 2000 through March 2001.

MTBE, Oxygenates, and Motor Gasoline (Released in the STEO October 1999)

Released: October 1, 1999

The blending of methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) into motor gasoline has increased dramatically since it was first produced 20 years ago. MTBE usage grew in the early 1980's in response to octane demand resulting initially from the phaseout of lead from gasoline and later from rising demand for premium gasoline. The oxygenated gasoline program stimulated an increase in MTBE production between 1990 and 1994. MTBE demand increased from 83,000 in 1990 to 161,000 barrels per day in 1994. The reformulated gasoline (RFG) program provided a further boost to oxygenate blending. The MTBE contained in motor gasoline increased to 269,000 barrels per day by 1997.

Impact of Temperature Trends on Short-Term Energy Demand, The (Released in the STEO September 1999)

Released: September 1, 1999

The past few years have witnessed unusually warm weather, as evidenced by both mild winters and hot summers. The analysis shows that the 30-year norms--the basis of weather-related energy demand projections--do not reflect the warming trend or its regional and seasonal patterns.

Areas Participating in the Oxygenated Gasoline Program (Released in the STEO July 1999)

Released: July 1, 1999

Section 211(m) of the Clean Air Act (42 U.S.C. 7401-7671q) requires that gasoline containing at least 2.7% oxygen by weight is to be used in the wintertime in those areas of the county that exceed the carbon monoxide National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS). The winter oxygenated gasoline program applies to all gasoline sold in the larger of the Consolidated Metropolitan Statistical Area (CMSA) or Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) in which the nonattainment area is located.

Areas Participating in the Reformulated Gasoline Program (Released in the STEO June 1999)

Released: June 1, 1999

Section 107(d) of the Clean Air Act, as amended in 1990 (the Act), required states to identify all areas that do not meet the national ambient air quality standards (NAAQS) for ozone, and directed the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to designate these areas as ozone nonattainment areas. Section 181 of the Act required EPA to classify each area as a marginal, moderate, serious, severe or extreme ozone nonattainment area. EPA classified all areas that were designated as in nonattainment for ozone at the time of the enactment of the 1990 Amendments, except for certain "nonclassifiable" areas (56 FR 56694, November 6, 1991).

Environmental Regulations and Changes in Petroleum Refining Operations (Released in the STEO June 1998)

Released: June 1, 1998

Changes in domestic refining operations are identified and related to the summer Reid vapor pressure (RVP) restrictions and oxygenate blending requirements. This analysis uses published Energy Information Administration survey data and linear regression equations from the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS). The STIFS model is used for producing forecasts appearing in the Short-Term Energy Outlook.

Refiners Switch to RFG Complex Model

Released: January 2, 1998

On January 1, 1998, domestic and foreign refineries and importers must stop using the "simple" model and begin using the "complex" model to calculate emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOC), toxic air pollutants (TAP), and nitrogen oxides (NOx) from motor gasoline. The primary differences between application of the two models is that some refineries may have to meet stricter standards for the sulfur and olefin content of the reformulated gasoline (RFG) they produce and all refineries will now be held accountable for NOx emissions. Requirements for calculating emissions from conventional gasoline under the anti-dumping rule similarly change for exhaust TAP and NOx. However, the change to the complex model is not expected to result in an increase in the price premium for RFG or constrain supplies.

Reformulated Gasoline Foreign Refinery Rules (Released in the STEO January 1998)

Released: January 2, 1998

On August 27, 1997, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) promulgated revised the rules that allow foreign refiners to establish and use individual baselines, but it would not be mandatory (the optional use of an individual refinery baseline is not available to domestic refiners.) If a foreign refiner did not establish and use an individual baseline, the gasoline they export to the United States would be regulated through the importer, and subject to the importer's baseline (most likely the statutory baseline). Specific regulatory provisions are implemented to ensure that the option to use an individual baseline would not lead to adverse environmental impacts. This involves monitoring the average quality of imported gasoline, and if a specified benchmark is exceeded, remedial action would be taken by adjusting the requirements applicable to imported gasoline.

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