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Energy & Financial Markets

WHAT DRIVES CRUDE OIL PRICES?

An analysis of 7 factors that influence oil markets, with chart data updated monthly and quarterly

What drives crude oil prices: Overview

We assess the various factors that may influence crude oil prices — physical market factors as well as those related to trading and financial markets. We describe the seven key factors that could influence oil markets and explore possible links between each factor and crude oil prices. We include regularly updated graphs that depict aspects of those relationships.

Several graphs include projections from our Short-Term Energy Outlook. Graphs are updated with new data on a monthly, quarterly, and annual basis according to the schedule below. Analytical text will be updated as needed.

All graphs
Graph update schedule by section     Update frequency Last update
Supply: Non-OPEC    
Production & WTI crude prices Monthly 03/12/2024
Changes in production capacity & GDP, price of WTI crude Monthly 03/12/2024
Projected supply, annual average Monthly 03/12/2024
OPEC and Non-opec Supply disruption Monthly 03/12/2024
 
Supply: OPEC    
Changes in Saudi Production & WTI crude prices Monthly 03/12/2024
Spare production capacity & WTI crude prices Monthly 03/12/2024
Changes in production capacity & GDP, price of WTI crude Monthly 03/12/2024
OPEC and Non-opec Supply disruption Monthly 03/12/2024
 
Balance    
OECD inventories & WTI futures spread Monthly 03/12/2024
 
Spot Prices    
World crude oil prices Monthly 02/29/2024
U.S. retail gasoline price, refiner acquisition cost of crude oil Monthly 03/12/2024
Crude price reaction to events Quarterly 12/31/2023
 
Financial Markets    
Average daily open interest in crude oil futures Quarterly 12/31/2023
Futures positions by producers, merchants, processors, & end users Monthly 12/31/2023
Futures positions by money managers Monthly 12/31/2023
Correlations between daily prices changes of crude & other commodities Quarterly 12/31/2023

Commodity index assets under management & Dow Jones UBS price index

Quarterly 12/31/2023
Composition of the Dow Jones UBS commodity index Annual 2022
Correlations between daily returns on crude oil & financial investments Quarterly 12/31/2023
 
Demand: Non-OECD    
Consumption & GDP Monthly 03/12/2024
World oil consumption, world GDP & WTI crude oil prices Monthly 03/12/2024
Projected non-OECD production, annual average Monthly 03/12/2024
 
Demand: OECD    
Crude oil consumption & WTI crude oil price Monthly 03/12/2024
World oil consumption, world GDP & WTI crude oil prices Monthly 03/12/2024