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ProjectionsAvailable formats

PDF Short-Term Energy Outlook

Released: April 8, 2014

Short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections through 2015 for the United States and international oil forecasts. (archived versions)

Annual Energy Outlook

Released: December 16, 2013

The Annual Energy Outlook 2014 (AEO2014) Reference case presents updated projections for U.S. energy markets through 2040. The Reference case projetions include only the effects of policies that have been implemented in law or final regulations. (archived versions)

PDF International Energy Outlook

Released: July 25, 2013

This report presents international energy projections through 2040, prepared by the Energy Information Administration, including outlooks for major energy fuels and associated carbon dioxide emissions. (archived versions)

PDF Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook

Released: May 14, 2013

This report presents the major assumptions of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) used to generate the projections in the Annual Energy Outlook, including general features of the model structure, assumptions concerning energy markets, and the key input data and parameters that are the most significant in formulating the model results.

Supplemental Tables to the Annual Energy Outlook

Released: May 1, 2013

The Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) Supplemental tables were generated for the reference case of the AEO using the National Energy Modeling System, a computer-based model which produces annual projections of energy markets. Most of the tables were not published in the AEO, but contain regional and other more detailed projections underlying the AEO projections.

PDF Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Macro Bridge Procedure to Update Regional Macroeconomic Forecasts with National Macroeconomic Forecasts

Released: June 1, 2010

The Regional Short-Term Energy Model (RSTEM) uses macroeconomic variables such as income, employment, industrial production and consumer prices at both the national and regional1 levels as explanatory variables in the generation of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). This documentation explains how national macroeconomic forecasts are used to update regional macroeconomic forecasts through the RSTEM Macro Bridge procedure.

PDF Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement: Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty

Released: October 1, 2009

It is often noted that energy prices are quite volatile, reflecting market participants' adjustments to new information from physical energy markets and/or markets in energy-related financial derivatives. Price volatility is an indication of the level of uncertainty, or risk, in the market. This paper describes how markets price risk and how the marketclearing process for risk transfer can be used to generate "price bands" around observed futures prices for crude oil, natural gas, and other commodities.

PDF Regional Short-Term Energy Model (RSTEM) Overview

Released: April 16, 2009

The Regional Short-Term Energy Model (RSTEM) utilizes estimated econometric relationships for demand, inventories and prices to forecast energy market outcomes across key sectors and selected regions throughout the United States.

Energy Demand: Limits on the Response to Higher Energy Prices in the End-Use Sectors (released in AEO2007)

Released: March 11, 2007

Energy consumption in the end-use demand sectorsresidential, commercial, industrial, and transportationgenerally shows only limited change when energy prices increase. Several factors that limit the sensitivity of end-use energy demand to price signals are common across the end-use sectors. For example, because energy generally is consumed in long-lived capital equipment, short-run consumer responses to changes in energy prices are limited to reductions in the use of energy services or, in a few cases, fuel switching; and because energy services affect such critical lifestyle areas as personal comfort, medical services, and travel, end-use consumers often are willing to absorb price increases rather than cut back on energy use, especially when they are uncertain whether price increases will be long-lasting. Manufacturers, on the other hand, often are able to pass along higher energy costs, especially in cases where energy inputs are a relatively minor component of production costs. In economic terms, short-run energy demand typically is inelastic, and long-run energy demand is less inelastic or moderately elastic at best.

PDF Impacts of Modeled Recommendations of the National Commission on Energy Policy

Released: April 1, 2005

This report provides the Energy Information Administration's analysis of those National Commission on Energy Policy (NCEP) energy policy recommendations that could be simulated using the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS).