Petroleum & Other Liquids


This Week in Petroleum

Data and analysis of recent events affecting the petroleum industry and markets. (archived versions)

Heating Oil and Propane Update

Weekly residential, wholesale, and spot prices; and production, demand, and stocks of heating fuels. (Weekly heating oil and propane prices are only collected during the heating season which extends from October through March.)

Weekly Petroleum Status Report

The petroleum supply situation in the context of historical information and selected prices. (archived versions)

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

Gasoline and diesel fuel prices released weekly.

Market Prices and Uncertainty Report

Released: September 9, 2014

A regular monthly supplement to the Short-Term Energy Outlook with analysis of crude oil, petroleum products, natural gas, and propane prices. (archived versions)

Short-Term Energy Outlook - Petroleum Section

Released: September 9, 2014

Short-term petroleum supply, demand, and price projections.

Petroleum Marketing Monthly

Released: September 2, 2014

Provides information and statistical data on a variety of crude oils and refined petroleum products, including statistics on crude oil costs and refined petroleum products sales. (archived versions)

Availability and Price of Petroleum and Petroleum Products Produced in Countries Other Than Iran, The

Released: August 28, 2014

This report was prepared in fulfillment of Section 1245(d)(4)(A) of the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for Fiscal Year 2012, which requires that, not later than 60 days from enactment and every 60 days thereafter, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) "submit to Congress a report on the availability and price of petroleum and petroleum products produced in countries other than Iran in the 60-day period preceding the submission of the report." (archived versions)

Winter Fuels Outlook 2013

Released: October 8, 2013

Heating costs for most households are forecast to rise from last winter’s level.

International Energy Outlook - Petroleum Section

Released: July 25, 2013

International petroleum projections through 2040.

Annual Energy Outlook - Petroleum Section

Released: May 2, 2013

Petroleum projections to 2040.

Supplemental Tables to the Annual Energy Outlook

Released: May 1, 2013

The Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) Supplemental tables were generated for the reference case of the AEO using the National Energy Modeling System, a computer-based model which produces annual projections of energy markets. Most of the tables were not published in the AEO, but contain regional and other more detailed projections underlying the AEO projections.

Comparison of Selected EIA-782 Data With Other Data Sources

Released: December 12, 2012

This article compares annual average prices reported from the EIA-782 survey series for residential No. 2 distillate, on-highway diesel fuel, retail regular motor gasoline, refiner No. 2 fuel oil for resale, refiner No. 2 diesel fuel for resale, refiner regular motor gasoline for resale, and refiner kerosene-type jet fuel for resale with annual average prices reported by other sources. In terms of volume, it compares EIA-782C Prime Supplier annual volumes for motor gasoline (all grades), distillate fuel oil, kerosene-type jet fuel and residual fuel oil with annual volumes from other sources. (archived versions)

Explaining EIA Crude Oil and Petroleum Product Price Data and Comparing with Other U.S. Government Data Sources, 2001 to 2010

Released: November 30, 2012

This article describes the sampling frames and basic data collection methods for petroleum price data reported by Energy Information Administration (EIA) and other Government agencies. In addition, it compares and contrasts annual average prices reported by EIA with comparable prices from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) CPI (Consumer Price Indexes) for the retail prices of residential No. 2 distillate, on-highway diesel fuel and motor gasoline (all grades.) Further, it compares refiner wholesale/resale prices for No. 2 fuel oil, No. 2 diesel fuel, motor gasoline (all grades,) kerosene-type jet fuel and residual fuel oil reported by EIA with comparable prices from the BLS PPI (Producer Price Index.) A discussion of the various crude oil prices and spot/futures prices published by EIA and other Government agencies is also included in the article.

Biofuels Issues and Trends

Released: October 15, 2012

This report presents data on biofuels consumption, production, imports and exports, including data collected by others than the U.S. Energy Information Administration. It also discusses important developments in biofuels markets.

Fuel Competition in Power Generation and Elasticities of Substitution

Released: June 21, 2012

This report analyzes the competition between coal, natural gas and petroleum used for electricity generation by estimating what is referred to by economists as the elasticity of substitution among the fuels.

What Were the Key Energy Commodity Price Trends in 2011?

Released: February 14, 2012

Energy commodity price trends varied widely during 2011. Crude oil and petroleum products prices increased during 2011, while natural gas, coal, and electricity prices declined. This article provides an overview of key energy commodity price trends in 2011 based on prices seen in futures markets.

Energy & Financial Markets: What Drives Crude Oil Prices?

Released: December 14, 2011

An assessment of the various factors that may influence oil prices - physical market factors as well as those related to trading and financial markets. The analysis describes seven key factors that could influence oil markets and explores possible linkages between each factor and oil prices, and includes regularly updated graphs that depict aspects of those relationships.

World Oil Prices and Production Trends in AEO2010 (released in AEO2010)

Released: May 11, 2010

In Annual Energy Outlook 2010, the price of light, low-sulfur (or "sweet") crude oil delivered at Cushing, Oklahoma, is tracked to represent movements in world oil prices. The Energy Information Administration makes projections of future supply and demand for "total liquids,"" which includes conventional petroleum liquids -- such as conventional crude oil, natural gas plant liquids, and refinery gain -- in addition to unconventional liquids, which include biofuels, bitumen, coal-to-liquids (CTL), gas-to-liquids (GTL), extra-heavy oils, and shale oil.

Factors Affecting the Relationship between Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices (released in AEO2010)

Released: May 11, 2010

Over the 1995-2005 period, crude oil prices and U.S. natural gas prices tended to move together, which supported the conclusion that the markets for the two commodities were connected. Figure 26 illustrates the fairly stable ratio over that period between the price of low-sulfur light crude oil at Cushing, Oklahoma, and the price of natural gas at the Henry Hub on an energy-equivalent basis.

Probabilities of Possible Future Prices (Released in the STEO April 2010)

Released: April 1, 2010

The Energy Information Administration introduced a monthly analysis of energy price volatility and forecast uncertainty in the October 2009 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Included in the analysis were charts portraying confidence intervals around the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) futures prices of West Texas Intermediate (equivalent to light sweet crude oil) and Henry Hub natural gas contracts.

Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty (Released in the STEO October 2009)

Released: October 6, 2009

The Energy Information Administration measures price uncertainty in oil and natural gas markets.

Natural Gas and Crude Oil Prices in AEO (released in AEO2009)

Released: March 31, 2009

If oil and natural gas were perfect substitutes in all markets where they are used, market forces would be expected to drive their delivered prices to near equality on an energy-equivalent basis. The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil generally is denominated in terms of barrels, where 1 barrel has an energy content of approximately 5.8 million Btu. The price of natural gas (at the Henry Hub), in contrast, generally is denominated in million Btu. Thus, if the market prices of the two fuels were equal on the basis of their energy contents, the ratio of the crude oil price (the spot price for WTI, or low-sulfur light, crude oil) to the natural gas price (the Henry Hub spot price) would be approximately 6.0. From 1990 through 2007, however, the ratio of natural gas prices to crude oil prices averaged 8.6; and in the Annual Energy Outlook 2009 projections from 2008 through 2030, it averages 7.7 in the low oil price case, 14.6 in the reference case, and 20.2 in the high oil price case.

World Oil Prices and Production Trends in AEO2009 (released in AEO2009)

Released: March 31, 2009

The oil prices reported in Annual Energy Outlook 2009 (AEO) represent the price of light, low-sulfur crude oil in 2007 dollars. Projections of future supply and demand are made for "liquids," a term used to refer to those liquids that after processing and refining can be used interchangeably with petroleum products. In AEO2009, liquids include conventional petroleum liquids -- such as conventional crude oil and natural gas plant liquids -- in addition to unconventional liquids, such as biofuels, bitumen, coal-to-liquids (CTL), gas-to-liquids (GTL), extra-heavy oils, and shale oil.

Hurricane Impacts on the U.S. Oil and Natural Gas Markets

Released: September 26, 2008

Report on hurricane impacts on the U.S. oil and natural gas markets.

World Oil Prices and Production Trends in AEO2008 (released in AEO2008)

Released: June 26, 2008

Annual Energy Outlook 2008 (AEO) defines the world oil price as the price of light, low-sulfur crude oil delivered in Cushing, Oklahoma. Since 2003, both "above ground" and "below ground" factors have contributed to a sustained rise in nominal world oil prices, from $31 per barrel in 2003 to $69 per barrel in 2007. The AEO2008 reference case outlook for world oil prices is higher than in the AEO2007 reference case. The main reasons for the adoption of a higher reference case price outlook include continued significant expansion of world demand for liquids, particularly in non-OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) countries, which include China and India; the rising costs of conventional non-OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) supply and unconventional liquids production; limited growth in non-OPEC supplies despite higher oil prices; and the inability or unwillingness of OPEC member countries to increase conventional crude oil production to levels that would be required for maintaining price stability. The Energy Information Administration will continue to monitor world oil price trends and may need to make further adjustments in future AEOs.

Motor Gasoline Market Spring 2007 and Implications for Spring 2008

Released: April 8, 2008

This report focuses on the major factors that drove the widening difference between wholesale gasoline and crude oil prices in 2007 and explores how those factors might impact gasoline prices in 2008.

Motor Gasoline Consumption 2008 - Historical Perspective and Short-Term Projections

Released: April 8, 2008

This report reviews how gasoline markets relate to population, income, prices, and the growing role of ethanol. It also analyzes the structural shift in motor gasoline markets that took place in the late 1990s.

Insights into Spring 2008 Gasoline Prices

Released: April 4, 2008

Gasoline prices rose rapidly in spring 2007 due a variety of factors, including refinery outages and lower than expected imports. This report explores those factors and looks at the implications for 2008.

Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement: Why Are Oil Prices So High?

Released: November 6, 2007

Feature article on the reasons for high oil prices.

Refinery Outages: Description and Potential Impact on Petroleum Product Prices

Released: March 27, 2007

This report responds to a July 13, 2006 request from Chairman Jeff Bingaman of the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources requested that the Energy Information Administration conduct a study of the impact that refinery shutdowns have had on the price of oil and gasoline.

World Oil Prices in AEO2007 (released in AEO2007)

Released: February 22, 2007

Over the long term, the Annual Energy Outlook 2007 (AEO) projection for world oil prices -- defined as the average price of imported low-sulfur, light crude oil to U.S. refiners -- is similar to the AEO2006 projection. In the near term, however, AEO2007 projects prices that are $8 to $10 higher than those in AEO2006.

Relationship Between Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices, The

Released: October 2, 2006

This paper examines the time series econometric relationship between the Henry Hub natural gas price and the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price.

Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement: Why Are Oil Prices So High?

Released: August 6, 2006

Feature article on the reasons for high oil prices.

Summer 2006 Motor Gasoline Prices (Released in the STEO July 2006)

Released: July 1, 2006

This supplement to the July 2006 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) examines the various factors that have contributed to this summer's high gasoline prices and discusses how they may continue to impact markets over the next several months.

Economic Effects of High Oil Prices (released in AEO2006)

Released: February 1, 2006

The Annual Energy Outlook 2006 projections of future energy market conditions reflect the effects of oil prices on the macroeconomic variables that affect oil demand, in particular, and energy demand in general. The variables include real gross domestic product (GDP) growth, inflation, employment, exports and imports, and interest rates.

World Oil Prices in AEO2006 (released in AEO2006)

Released: February 1, 2006

World oil prices in the Annual Energy Outlook 2006 (AEO) reference case are substantially higher than those in the AEO2005 reference case. In the AEO2006 reference case, world crude oil prices, in terms of the average price of imported low-sulfur, light crude oil to U.S. refiners, decline from current levels to about $47 per barrel (2004 dollars) in 2014, then rise to $54 per barrel in 2025 and $57 per barrel in 2030. The price in 2025 is approximately $21 per barrel higher than the corresponding price projection in the AEO2005 reference case.

Comparisons of Independent Petroleum Supply Statistics

Released: October 24, 2005

Compares final petroleum data published in the Petroleum Supply Annual with similar petroleum data obtained from other sources. Data comparisons are presented for 1994 through 2003. (archived versions)

Regional Comparisons, Spatial Aggregation, and Asymmetry of Price Pass-Through

Released: August 3, 2005

Spot to retail price pass-through behavior of the U.S. gasoline market was investigated at the national and regional levels, using weekly wholesale and retail motor gasoline prices from January 2000 to the present.

World Oil Price Cases (released in AEO2005)

Released: February 1, 2005

World oil prices in Annual Energy Outlook 2005 are set in an environment where the members of OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) are assumed to act as the dominant producers, with lower production costs than other supply regions or countries. Non-OPEC oil producers are assumed to behave competitively, producing as much oil as they can profitability extract at the market price for oil. As a result, the OPEC member countries will be able effectively to set the price of oil when they can act in concert by varying their aggregate production. Alternatively, OPEC members could target a fixed level of production and let the world market determine the price.

Analysis of Senate Amendment 2028, the Climate Stewardship Act of 2003

Released: May 1, 2004

On May 11, 2004, Senator Landrieu asked the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to evaluate SA 2028. This paper responds to that request, relying on the modeling methodology, data sources, and assumptions used to analyze the original bill, as extensively documented in EIA's June 2003 report.

Inquiry into August 2003 Gasoline Price Spike

Released: December 1, 2003

U.S. Secretary of Energy Spencer Abraham requested that the Energy Information Administration conduct an inquiry into the causes of the price increases of gasoline in July and August of 2003.

California Gasoline Price Study, 2003 Preliminary Findings

Released: May 1, 2003

This is the preliminary report to Congressman Ose describing the factors driving California's spring 2003 gasoline price spike and the subsequent price increases in June and August.

California Gasoline Price Study, 2003

Released: May 1, 2003

This is the final report to Congressman Ose describing the factors driving California's spring 2003 gasoline price spike and the subsequent price increases in June and August.

Forecasting Crude Oil Spot Price Using OECD Petroleum Inventory Levels

Released: March 1, 2003

This paper presents a short-term monthly forecasting model of West Texas Intermediate crude oil spot price using Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) petroleum inventory levels.

Gasoline Price Pass-through

Released: January 1, 2003

Over the past several years, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) has extensively studied the relationships between wholesale and retail markets for transportation fuels. This article represents a return to gasoline markets, where EIA first performed this type of analysis and modeling in 1997. The current effort takes advantage of improvements and enhancements to our approach over the intervening years, resulting in more detailed and accurate results.

Derivatives and Risk Management in the Petroleum, Natural Gas, and Electricity Industries

Released: October 1, 2002

In February 2002 the Secretary of Energy directed the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to prepare a report on the nature and use of derivative contracts in the petroleum, natural gas, and electricity industries. Derivatives are contracts ('financial instruments') that are used to manage risk, especially price risk.

Gasoline Type Proliferation and Price Volatility

Released: September 1, 2002

This paper focuses on the potential effect/role of implementation of a national menu of fuels to address the proliferation of boutique fuels.

Methodology for the Assessment of the Macroeconomic Impacts of Stricter CAFE Standards - Addendum

Released: March 1, 2002

This assessment of the economic impacts of Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFÉ) standards marks the first time the Energy Information Administration has used the new direct linkage of the DRI-WEFA Macroeconomic Model to the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) in a policy setting. This methodology assures an internally consistent solution between the energy market concepts forecast by NEMS and the aggregate economy as forecast by the DRI-WEFA Macroeconomic Model of the U.S. Economy.

Restructuring: The Changing Face of Motor Gasoline Marketing

Released: November 1, 2001

This report reviews the U.S. motor gasoline marketing industry during the period 1990 to 1999, focusing on changes that occurred during the period. The report incorporates financial and operating data from the Energy Information Administration's Financial Reporting System (FRS), motor gasoline outlet counts collected by the National Petroleum News from the states, and U.S. Census Bureau salary and employment data published in County Business Patterns.

Why Are Gasoline Prices Falling So Rapidly?

Released: September 1, 2001

Brief analysis of falling gasoline prices in the fall of 2001.

Analysis of Strategies for Reducing Multiple Emissions from Electric Power Plants: SO2, Nox, CO2

Released: July 1, 2001

This report responds to a request received from Senator David McIntosh on June 29, 2000 to analyze the impacts on energy consumers and producers of coordinated strategies to reduce emissions of sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and carbon dioxide at U.S. power plants.

Transition to Ultra-Low-Sulfur Diesel Fuel: Effects on Prices and Supply, The

Released: May 1, 2001

This report discusses the implications of the new regulations for vehicle fuel efficiency and examines the technology, production, distribution, and cost implications of supplying diesel fuel to meet the new standards.

Accelerated Depletion: Assessing Its Impacts on Domestic Oil and Natural Gas Prices and Production

Released: July 1, 2000

Analysis of the potential impacts of accelerated depletion on domestic oil and natural gas prices and production.

Northeast Heating Fuel Market The, Assessment and Options

Released: May 1, 2000

In response to the President's request, this study examines how the distillate fuel oil market (and related energy markets) in the Northeast behaved in the winter of 1999-2000, explains the role played by residential, commercial, industrial, and electricity generation sector consumers in distillate fuel oil markets and describes how that role is influenced by the structure of the energy markets in the Northeast

Petroleum: An Energy Profile 1999

Released: July 1, 1999

Explains in layman's terms the major components and operations of the U.S. petroleum industry that include: petroleum products, resources and reserves, drilling and exploration, refining, storage and transportation, imports, exports, and petroleum marketing.

Demand and Price Outlook for Phase 2 Reformulated Gasoline, 2000

Released: May 19, 1999

Phase 2 of the U.S. reformulated gasoline program begins at the end of this year. This article, published in the Petroleum Supply Monthly, April 1999, provides a forecast and analysis of the demand and price for Phase 2 reformulated gasoline for the year 2000.

Price Changes in the Gasoline Market - Are Midwestern Gasoline Prices Downward Sticky?

Released: February 1, 1999

The report concentrates on regional gasoline prices in the Midwest from October 1992 through June 1998.

What Does the Kyoto Protocol Mean to U.S. Energy Markets and the U.S. Economy?

Released: October 1, 1998

A briefing paper on the Energy Information Administration's analysis and report prepared for the Committee on Science, U.S. House of Representatives.

Why Do Motor Gasoline Prices Vary Regionally? California Case Study

Released: July 15, 1998

Analysis of the difference between the retail gasoline prices in California and the average U.S. retail prices.

Assessment of Summer 1997 Motor Gasoline Price Increase

Released: May 1, 1998

Assesses the 1997 late summer gasoline market and some of the important issues surrounding that event.

Petroleum 1996: Issues and Trends

Released: September 1, 1997

Examines historical trends and focuses on major petroleum issues and the events they represent. It analyzes different dimensions of the petroleum industry and related markets in terms of how they relate to the volatility in petroleum markets.

Motor Gasoline Assessment, Spring 1997

Released: July 1, 1997

Analyzes the factors causing the run up of motor gasoline prices during spring 1996 and the different market conditions during spring 1997 that caused prices to decline.

Analysis of Gasoline Markets Spring 1996, An

Released: June 1, 1996

The factors causing the run up of motor gasoline prices during spring 1996.

Demand, Supply, and Price Outlook for Reformulated Motor Gasoline 1995

Released: July 1, 1994

Provisions of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 designed to reduce ground-level ozone will increase the demand for reformulated motor gasoline in a number of U.S. metropolitan areas. This article discusses the effects of the new regulations on the motor gasoline market and the refining industry.

Demand, Supply, and Price Outlook for Low-Sulfur Diesel Fuel

Released: August 1, 1993

The Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 established a new, sharply lower standard for the maximum sulfur content of on-highway diesel fuel, to take effect October 1, 1993.


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