‹ Analysis & Projections

Short-Term Energy and Summer Fuels Outlook

Release Date: April 8, 2014  |  Next Release Date: May 6, 2014  |  Full Report    |   Text Only   |   All Tables   |   All Figures

U.S. Petroleum and Other Liquids

U.S. Liquid Fuels Consumption

Total U.S. liquid fuels consumption rose by an estimated 400,000 bbl/d (2.1%) in 2013. Consumption of hydrocarbon gas liquids (HGL) registered the largest gain, increasing by 150,000 bbl/d (6.4%). Motor gasoline consumption grew by 90,000 bbl/d (1.1%), the largest increase since 2006. Stronger-than-expected growth in highway travel during the second half of 2013 contributed to that increase. Distillate fuel consumption increased by 90,000 bbl/d (2.5%), reflecting colder weather and domestic economic growth.

Projected total liquid fuels consumption remains flat in 2014. Motor gasoline consumption remains largely unchanged as the recent strong growth in highway travel slows and continued improvements in new-vehicle fuel economy boost overall fuel efficiency growth. Distillate fuel oil consumption rises 20,000 bbl/d (0.4%). In 2015, total liquid fuels consumption increases by 90,000 bbl/d (0.5%), driven primarily by increasing transportation demand for distillate fuel oil and industrial demand for HGL.

Figure 15: U.S. Liquid Fuels Consumption Growth

U.S. Liquid Fuels Supply

Weather conditions in the Lower 48 states during December 2013 and January 2014 caused operational issues in key producing regions. While a temporary slowdown in well completion activity resulted in flat crude oil production during those months, much of the production slowdown is expected to be made up by accelerated completion activity over the next few months.

Aside from seasonal issues, EIA expects strong crude oil production growth, primarily concentrated in the Bakken, Eagle Ford, and Permian regions, continuing through 2015. Forecast production increases from an estimated 7.4 million bbl/d in 2013 to 8.4 million bbl/d in 2014 and 9.1 million bbl/d in 2015. The highest historical annual average U.S. production level was 9.6 million bbl/d in 1970.

Crude oil production from the Bakken formation in North Dakota and Montana averaged 0.9 million bbl/d in 2013. Production in the Eagle Ford formation in South Texas averaged 1.1 million bbl/d in 2013, reaching an estimated 1.2 million bbl/d in December 2013.

U.S. Petroleum and Other Liquids
  2012 2013 2014 2015
Crude Oil prices (dollars per barrel)
WTI Spot Average 94.12 97.91 95.60 89.75
Brent Spot Average 111.65 108.64 104.88 100.92
Imported Average 101.09 98.12 99.77 93.77
Refiner Average Acquisition Cost 100.83 100.46 99.52 94.26
Retail prices including taxes (dollars per gallon)
Regular Gasoline 3.63 3.51 3.45 3.37
Diesel Fuel 3.97 3.92 3.85 3.76
Heating Oil 3.79 3.78 3.81 3.62
Production (million barrels per day)
Crude Oil 6.48 7.44 8.37 9.13
Natural Gas Plant Liquids 2.41 2.56 2.70 2.78
Fuel Ethanol 0.86 0.87 0.91 0.92
Biodiesel 0.064 0.087 0.075 0.077
Consumption (million barrels per day)
Motor Gasoline 8.68 8.77 8.79 8.79
Distillate Fuel Oil 3.74 3.84 3.85 3.94
Jet Fuel 1.40 1.42 1.43 1.42
Total Consumption 18.49 18.89 18.90 18.99
Primary Assumptions (percent change from previous year)
U.S. Real GDP Growth 2.8 1.9 2.5 3.2
Heating Degree Days -12.6 18.5 0.6 -7.5
Distillate-weighted Industrial Production 2.7 2.5 3.2 5.9

Interactive Data Viewers

Provides custom data views of historical and forecast data

STEO Custom Table Builder ›
Real Prices Viewer ›

Related Articles    
Today In Energy Daily
This Week in Petroleum Weekly
2014 Summer Fuels Outlook Slideshow Apr-2014 PDF
Energy-weighted industrial production indices Mar-2014 PDF
2013-2014 Winter Fuels Outlook Slideshow Oct-2013 PDF
2013 Outlook for Gulf of Mexico Hurricane-Related Production Outages Jun-2013 PDF
Key drivers for EIA's short-term U.S. crude oil production outlook Feb-2013 PDF
Change in STEO Regional and U.S. Degree Day Calculations Sep-2012 PDF
Brent Crude Oil Spot Price Forecast Jul-2012 PDF
2012 Outlook for Hurricane-Related Production Outages in the Gulf of Mexico Jun-2012 PDF
STEO Notice: Suspension of Regional Residential Heating Oil and Propane Price Forecast Jun-2011 PDF
Probabilities of Possible Future Prices Apr-2010 PDF
Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty Oct-2009 PDF