U.S. Energy Information Administration - EIA - Independent Statistics and Analysis
Short-Term Energy and Summer Fuels Outlook
U.S. Petroleum and Other Liquids
U.S. Liquid Fuels Consumption
Total U.S. liquid fuels consumption rose by an estimated 400,000 bbl/d (2.1%) in 2013. Consumption of hydrocarbon gas liquids (HGL) registered the largest gain, increasing by 150,000 bbl/d (6.4%). Motor gasoline consumption grew by 90,000 bbl/d (1.1%), the largest increase since 2006. Stronger-than-expected growth in highway travel during the second half of 2013 contributed to that increase. Distillate fuel consumption increased by 90,000 bbl/d (2.5%), reflecting colder weather and domestic economic growth.
Projected total liquid fuels consumption remains flat in 2014. Motor gasoline consumption remains largely unchanged as the recent strong growth in highway travel slows and continued improvements in new-vehicle fuel economy boost overall fuel efficiency growth. Distillate fuel oil consumption rises 20,000 bbl/d (0.4%). In 2015, total liquid fuels consumption increases by 90,000 bbl/d (0.5%), driven primarily by increasing transportation demand for distillate fuel oil and industrial demand for HGL.
U.S. Liquid Fuels Supply
Weather conditions in the Lower 48 states during December 2013 and January 2014 caused operational issues in key producing regions. While a temporary slowdown in well completion activity resulted in flat crude oil production during those months, much of the production slowdown is expected to be made up by accelerated completion activity over the next few months.
Aside from seasonal issues, EIA expects strong crude oil production growth, primarily concentrated in the Bakken, Eagle Ford, and Permian regions, continuing through 2015. Forecast production increases from an estimated 7.4 million bbl/d in 2013 to 8.4 million bbl/d in 2014 and 9.1 million bbl/d in 2015. The highest historical annual average U.S. production level was 9.6 million bbl/d in 1970.
Crude oil production from the Bakken formation in North Dakota and Montana averaged 0.9 million bbl/d in 2013. Production in the Eagle Ford formation in South Texas averaged 1.1 million bbl/d in 2013, reaching an estimated 1.2 million bbl/d in December 2013.
|U.S. Petroleum and Other Liquids|
|2012||2013||2014 projected||2015 projected|
|Crude Oil prices||(dollars per barrel)|
|WTI Spot Average||94.12||97.91||95.60||89.75|
|Brent Spot Average||111.65||108.64||104.88||100.92|
|Refiner Average Acquisition Cost||100.83||100.46||99.52||94.26|
|Retail prices including taxes||(dollars per gallon)|
|Production||(million barrels per day)|
|Natural Gas Plant Liquids||2.41||2.56||2.70||2.78|
|Consumption||(million barrels per day)|
|Distillate Fuel Oil||3.74||3.84||3.85||3.94|
|Primary Assumptions||(percent change from previous year)|
|U.S. Real GDP Growth||2.8||1.9||2.5||3.2|
|Heating Degree Days||-12.6||18.5||0.6||-7.5|
|Distillate-weighted Industrial Production||2.7||2.5||3.2||5.9|
Interactive Data Viewers
|Today In Energy||Daily|
|This Week in Petroleum||Weekly|
|2014 Summer Fuels Outlook Slideshow||Apr-2014|
|Energy-weighted industrial production indices||Mar-2014|
|2013-2014 Winter Fuels Outlook Slideshow||Oct-2013|
|2013 Outlook for Gulf of Mexico Hurricane-Related Production Outages||Jun-2013|
|Key drivers for EIA's short-term U.S. crude oil production outlook||Feb-2013|
|Change in STEO Regional and U.S. Degree Day Calculations||Sep-2012|
|Brent Crude Oil Spot Price Forecast||Jul-2012|
|2012 Outlook for Hurricane-Related Production Outages in the Gulf of Mexico||Jun-2012|
|STEO Notice: Suspension of Regional Residential Heating Oil and Propane Price Forecast||Jun-2011|
|Probabilities of Possible Future Prices||Apr-2010|
|Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty||Oct-2009|