U.S. Energy Information Administration - EIA - Independent Statistics and Analysis
Short-Term Energy Outlook
U.S. Petroleum and Other Liquids
Despite relatively stable crude oil prices over the winter months, consistently cold temperatures east of the Rocky Mountains have tightened fuel supplies for both propane and heating. Propane stocks began the winter heating season at low levels because of heavy demand for drying an unusually wet fall corn crop harvest and have since fallen further. PADD 2 (Midwest) propane stocks started the winter heating season (end of September) at 24.4 million barrels, 3.5 million barrels lower than the same time the previous year and 2.5 million barrels lower than the previous 5-year average. The region's propane stocks were 8.8 million barrels the week ending January 24, which was 8.4 million barrels lower than the same week last year and the lowest recorded by EIA for January. By January 31 Midwest stocks had increased to 9.6 million barrels. These low propane inventories combined with consistently cold temperatures contributed to significant price increases for many consumers in the region. As of January 27, residential propane prices in PADD 2 increased to an average of $4.20/gal, which was an increase of 65% in just one week's time and the highest nominal price ever recorded for the region. By February 3, regional prices had fallen to an average of $3.83/gal.
Less-severe, but still considerable, tightness in Northeast heating oil supplies has similarly driven up heating oil prices in recent weeks as a result of cold winter temperatures and high residential heating demand. Distillate inventories in the Northeast (PADDs 1A and 1B) declined by 7.0 million barrels between January 3 through January 31, which is significantly greater than the average stock draw of 2.6 million barrels during the four weeks of January over the previous five years. Distillate stocks in the Northeast ended January at 18.2 million barrels, more than 10 million barrels lower than the same time last year. Residential heating oil prices in New England, which began 2014 at an average of $4.01/gal, increased to $4.17/gal on February 3.
U.S. Liquid Fuels Consumption
Total U.S. liquid fuels consumption rose by an estimated 380,000 bbl/d (2.1%) in 2013. Consumption of hydrocarbon gas liquids registered the largest gain, increasing by 140,000 bbl/d (6.2%). Motor gasoline consumption grew by 100,000 bbl/d (1.1%), the largest increase since 2004. Stronger-than-expected growth in highway travel during the second half of 2013 contributed to that increase. Distillate fuel consumption increased 80,000 bbl/d (2.0%), reflecting colder weather and domestic economic growth.
Projected total liquid fuels consumption increases 30,000 bbl/d (0.2%) in 2014. Motor gasoline consumption remains unchanged as the recent strong growth in highway travel slows and continued improvements in new-vehicle fuel economy boost overall fuel efficiency growth. Distillate fuel oil consumption rises 60,000 bbl/d (1.5%). Growing distillate demands from the transportation and industrial sectors as well as increased heating oil use in the current quarter contribute to that growth. Ethane consumption increases by an average of 50,000 bbl/d (5.4%), as ethylene plant capacity expansions contribute to an increase in ethane cracking capacity. In 2015, total liquid fuels consumption increases by 60,000 bbl/d (0.3%), driven primarily by increasing transportation demand for distillate fuel oil and industrial demand for hydrocarbon gas liquids.
U.S. Liquid Fuels Supply
EIA expects strong crude oil production growth, primarily concentrated in the Bakken, Eagle Ford, and Permian regions, continuing through 2015. Forecast production increases from an estimated 7.4 million bbl/d in 2013 to 8.4 million bbl/d in 2014 and 9.2 million bbl/d in 2015. The U.S. crude oil production forecast for both 2014 and 2015 was revised downward by 0.1 million bbl/d from last month's STEO because of indications that severe weather this winter has caused temporary slowdowns in completing new wells. The highest historical annual average U.S. production level was 9.6 million bbl/d in 1970. Crude oil production from the Bakken formation in North Dakota and Montana averaged 0.88 million bbl/d in 2013, and surpassed 1 million bbl/d in December 2013. Production in the Eagle Ford formation in South Texas surpassed 1 million bbl/d in May 2013, reaching an estimated 1.22 million bbl/d in December 2013.
U.S. Federal Gulf of Mexico (GOM) crude oil production averaged 1.25 million bbl/d in 2013, down slightly from 2012. EIA forecasts 1.38 million bbl/d of GOM crude oil production in 2014 and 1.59 million bbl/d in 2015. Production growth in 2014 comes from eight projects expected to come online: Jack, St. Malo, Entrada, Big Foot, Tubular Bells, Atlantis Phase 2, Hadrian South, and Lucius. Further production growth in 2015 comes from an additional 10 projects: Axe, Cardamom Deep, Dalmatian, Deimos South, Kodiak, Pony, Samurai, West Boreas, Winter, and Mars B.
The growth in domestic production has contributed to a significant decline in petroleum imports. The share of total U.S. liquid fuels consumption met by net imports peaked at more than 60% in 2005 and fell to an average of 33% in 2013. EIA expects the net import share to decline to 25% in 2015, which would be the lowest level since 1971.
U.S. Petroleum Product Prices
Led by falling crude oil prices, the projected U.S. annual average regular gasoline retail price, which fell from $3.63/gal in 2012 to an average of $3.51/gal in 2013, will continue to fall to $3.44/gal in 2014 and $3.37 in 2015. Diesel fuel prices, which averaged $3.92/gal in 2013, are projected to average $3.83/gal in 2014 and $3.73/gal in 2015.
|U.S. Petroleum and Other Liquids|
|2012||2013||2014 projected||2015 projected|
|Crude Oil prices||(dollars per barrel)|
|WTI Spot Average||94.12||97.91||93.22||89.58|
|Brent Spot Average||111.65||108.64||104.68||100.92|
|Refiner Average Acquisition Cost||100.83||101.15||97.71||94.10|
|Retail prices including taxes||(dollars per gallon)|
|Production||(million barrels per day)|
|Natural Gas Plant Liquids||2.41||2.54||2.59||2.68|
|Consumption||(million barrels per day)|
|Distillate Fuel Oil||3.74||3.82||3.87||3.95|
|Primary Assumptions||(percent change from previous year)|
|U.S. Real GDP Growth||2.8||1.9||2.6||3.2|
|Heating Degree Days||-12.8||19.0||-4.0||-1.7|
|Distillate-weighted Industrial Production||2.7||2.5||4.5||6.5|
Interactive Data Viewers
|Table WF01. Average Consumer Prices and Expenditures for Heating Fuels During the Winter|
|Table 1. U.S. Energy Markets Summary|
|Table 2. U.S. Energy Prices|
|Table 4a. U.S. Petroleum and Other Liquids Supply, Consumption, and Inventories|
|Table 4b. U.S. Petroleum Refinery Balance|
|Table 4c. U.S. Regional Motor Gasoline Prices and Inventories|
|Table 9a. U.S. Macroeconomic Indicators and CO2 Emissions|
|Table 9b. U.S. Regional Macroeconomic Data|
|Table 9c. U.S. Regional Weather Data|
|Today In Energy||Daily|
|This Week in Petroleum||Weekly|
|2013-2014 Winter Fuels Outlook Slideshow||Oct-2013|
|2013 Outlook for Gulf of Mexico Hurricane-Related Production Outages||Jun-2013|
|2013 Summer Transportation Fuels Outlook Slideshow||Apr-2013|
|Key drivers for EIA's short-term U.S. crude oil production outlook||Feb-2013|
|Change in STEO Regional and U.S. Degree Day Calculations||Sep-2012|
|Brent Crude Oil Spot Price Forecast||Jul-2012|
|2012 Outlook for Hurricane-Related Production Outages in the Gulf of Mexico||Jun-2012|
|STEO Notice: Suspension of Regional Residential Heating Oil and Propane Price Forecast||Jun-2011|
|Probabilities of Possible Future Prices||Apr-2010|
|Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty||Oct-2009|