U.S. Energy Information Administration - EIA - Independent Statistics and Analysis
Short-Term Energy and Summer Fuels Outlook
Renewables and CO2 Emissions
Electricity and Heat Generation from Renewables
EIA projects that total renewables used for electricity and heat generation will grow by 3.4% in 2015. Conventional hydropower generation increases by 6.3%, while nonhydropower renewables generation increases by 1.9%. In 2016, total renewables consumption for electric power and heat generation increases by 2.6% as a result of a 2.5% decline in hydropower and a 5.2% increase in nonhydropower renewables.
EIA expects continued growth in utility-scale solar power generation, which is projected to average 80 gigawatthours (GWh) per day in 2016. Despite this growth, utility-scale solar power averages only 0.7% of total U.S. electricity generation in 2016. Although solar growth has historically been concentrated in customer-sited distributed generation installations, EIA expects that utility-scale solar capacity will increase by 75% between the end of 2014 and the end of 2016, with about half of this new capacity being built in California. Other leading states include North Carolina, Nevada, Texas, and Utah, which combined with California, account for about 90% of the projected utility-scale capacity additions for 2015 and 2016. Utility-scale solar capacity additions during 2016 are about 1 GW (26%) higher than in last month's STEO, as EIA continues to receive new information about upcoming generation capacity builds. According to current law, projects coming online after the end of next year will see a significantly reduced federal investment tax credit of 10%, well below the 30% investment tax credit available for projects that come online before the end of 2016. This provides a strong incentive for projects to enter service before the end of 2016.
Wind capacity, which grew by 8.1% in 2014, is forecast to increase by 13.1% in 2015 and by another 10.9% in 2016. Because wind is starting from a much larger base than solar, even though the growth rate is lower, the absolute amount of the increase in capacity is more than twice that of solar: 17 GW of wind compared with 8 GW of utility-scale solar between 2014 and 2016.
After ethanol production in December 2014 topped 1.0 million bbl/d for the first time, it is estimated to have fallen to an average of 944,000 bbl/d in March 2015. Ethanol production averaged 935,000 bbl/d in 2014, and EIA expects it to average 944,000 bbl/d in 2015 and 937,000 bbl/d in 2016. Biodiesel production averaged an estimated 83,000 bbl/d in 2014 and is forecast to average 82,000 bbl/d in 2015 and 84,000 bbl/d in 2016.
Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions
EIA estimates that emissions grew 0.7% in 2014. Emissions are forecast to increase by 0.1% in 2015 and by 0.4% in 2016. These forecasts are sensitive to both weather and economic assumptions.
|U.S. Renewables & CO2 Emissions Summary|
|2013||2014||2015 projected||2016 projected|
a Conventional hydroelectric power only. Hydroelectricity generated by pumped storage is not included in renewable energy.
|U.S. Renewables Consumption||(quadrillion Btu)|
|Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Fuel||(million metric tons)|
|Petroleum and Other Liquid Fuels||2231||2249||2279||2285|
|Total Fossil Fuels||5353||5392||5399||5419|
Interactive Data Viewers
|U.S. Renewable Energy Supply||XLSX||PNG|
|U.S. Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions Growth||XLSX||PNG|
|U.S. Total Industrial Production Index||XLSX||PNG|
|U.S. Disposable Income||XLSX||PNG|
|Today In Energy||Daily|
|U.S. Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions||Annual|
|State-Level Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions||Annual|
|Changes to Electricity and Renewables Tables||Aug-2012|
|Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in the United States||31-Mar-2011|
|Understanding the Decline in CO2 Emissions in 2009||Oct-2009|
|Biodiesel Supply and Consumption||Apr-2009|