U.S. Energy Information Administration - EIA - Independent Statistics and Analysis
Short-Term Energy Outlook
Renewables and Carbon Dioxide Emissions
Electricity and Heat Generation from Renewables
EIA expects total renewables used in the electric power sector to increase by 11.2% in 2016 and by 3.9% in 2017. Forecast hydropower generation in the electric power sector increases by 8.7% in 2016 and then falls by 2.6% in 2017. Generation from renewables other than hydropower is forecast to grow by 13.4% in 2016 and by 9.3% in 2017.
EIA expects that from 2015 to 2017, utility-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity will grow by about 13 gigawatts. States leading in utility-scale solar capacity additions are California, Nevada, North Carolina, Texas, and Georgia. According to EIA's Electric Power Monthly, electricity generation from utility-scale PV in 2015 exceeded generation from wind in California for the first time. Forecast utility-scale solar power generation averages 1.1% of total U.S. electricity generation in 2017.
Wind capacity, which starts from a significantly larger installed capacity base than solar, grew by 12% in 2015, and it is forecast to increase by 10% in 2016 and by 11% in 2017. In 2017, forecast wind generation accounts for almost 6% of total electricity generation.
On November 30, 2015, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) finalized a rule setting Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) volumes for 2014 through 2016. On May 18, 2016, EPA released the proposed RFS volumes for 2017 along with finalized biomass-based diesel volumes for 2017. EIA used both the final and proposed volumes to develop the current STEO forecast through 2017. Ethanol production averaged almost 970,000 b/d in 2015, and it is forecast to average about 980,000 b/d in 2016 and 2017. Ethanol consumption averaged about 910,000 b/d in 2015, and it is forecast to average about 930,000 b/d in both 2016 and 2017. This level of consumption results in the ethanol share of the total gasoline pool averaging 10.0% in both 2016 and 2017.
EIA expects the largest effect of the RFS targets will be on biomass-based diesel consumption, which includes both biodiesel and renewable diesel and helps to meet the RFS targets for use of biomass-based diesel, advanced biofuel, and total renewable fuel. Biodiesel production averaged 82,000 b/d in 2015, and it is forecast to average 99,000 b/d in 2016 and 106,000 b/d in 2017. Net imports of biomass-based diesel are expected to rise from 29,000 b/d in 2015 to 41,000 b/d in 2016 and to 47,000 b/d in 2017. EIA assumes about 10,000 b/d of domestic renewable diesel consumption will be used to help meet the biomass-based diesel and advanced biofuels RFS targets in both 2016 and 2017.
Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions
EIA estimates that energy-related emissions of carbon dioxide decreased by 2.8% in 2015. Emissions are forecast to decrease by 1.6% in 2016 and then increase by 1.1% in 2017. These forecasts are sensitive to assumptions about weather and economic growth.
|U.S. Renewables & CO2 Emissions Summary|
|2014||2015||2016 projected||2017 projected|
a Conventional hydroelectric power only. Hydroelectricity generated by pumped storage is not included in renewable energy.
b Includes electricity and heat generation
c Other renewables includes biofuels production losses and co-products
d Includes electric power sector use of geothermal energy and non-biomass waste
|U.S. Renewables Consumption||(quadrillion Btu)|
|Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Fuel||(million metric tons)|
|Petroleum and Other Liquid Fuels||2252||2284||2292||2297|
Interactive Data Viewers
|U.S. Renewable Energy Supply||XLSX||PNG|
|U.S. Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions Growth||XLSX||PNG|
|U.S. Total Industrial Production Index||XLSX||PNG|
|U.S. Disposable Income||XLSX||PNG|
|Today In Energy||Daily|
|U.S. Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions||Annual|
|State-Level Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions||Annual|
|Changes to Electricity and Renewables Tables||Aug-2012|
|Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in the United States||31-Mar-2011|
|Understanding the Decline in CO2 Emissions in 2009||Oct-2009|
|Biodiesel Supply and Consumption||Apr-2009|