Renewables and CO₂ Emissions

U.S. Electricity and Heat Generation from Renewables

EIA projects renewable energy consumption for power and heat generation to increase by 3.3 percent in 2013. While hydropower declines by 2.2 percent, nonhydropower renewables grow by an average of 7.1 percent in 2013. In 2014, the growth in renewables consumption for power and heat generation is projected to continue at a rate of 4.4 percent, as a 1.8-percent increase in hydropower is combined with a 6.0-percent increase in nonhydropower renewables.

EIA currently estimates that wind capacity will increase by 7 percent this year to nearly 63,000 megawatts, and reach almost 73,000 megawatts in 2014. However, electricity generation from wind is projected to increase by 19 percent in 2013, as capacity that came on line at the end of 2012 is available for the entire year in 2013. Wind-powered generation is projected to grow by 8 percent in 2014.

EIA expects continued robust growth in the generation of solar energy, both from central-station and distributed capacity, although the total amount remains a small share of total U.S. generation. Central-station capacity, which until recently experienced little growth compared with distributed capacity, is projected to more than double between 2012 and 2014. Photovoltaics (PV) accounted for all central-station solar growth in 2012, but EIA expects that several large solar thermal generation projects will enter service in 2013 and 2014. However, PV is still expected to account for the majority of central station and distributed capacity additions in 2013 and 2014.

U.S. Liquid Biofuels

Smaller corn harvests due to widespread drought resulted in U.S. fuel ethanol production falling from an average of approximately 900,000 bbl/d (13.8 billion gallons per year) in the first half of 2012 to 820,000 bbl/d (12.6 billion gallons per year) from July 2012 through March 2013. Ethanol production recovered somewhat in April, averaging about 840,000 bbl/d, driven largely by increasing Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) targets and strong demand for Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs) used. EIA expects ethanol production to remain near current levels of about 840,000 bbl/d through mid-2013 before recovering to pre-drought production levels, averaging 860,000 bbl/d for the year. Ethanol production is expected to rise in 2014, averaging 930,000 bbl/d. Biodiesel production, which averaged 63,000 bbl/d (1.0 billion gallons per year) in 2012, is forecast to average about 74,000 bbl/d in 2013 and 82,000 bbl/d in 2014 (1.3 billion gallons per year). This forecast assumes that the 2014 renewable fuel volume obligations for biodiesel and advanced biofuel are identical to those in 2013.

In 2013, the RFS requires refiners and importers of gasoline and diesel fuel to deliver RINs to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency equivalent to 9.63 percent of the gasoline or diesel fuel they sell domestically (not counting the biofuels blended into it). The market price of ethanol RINs increased dramatically during the first quarter of 2013, from $0.05 per gallon at the start of the year to as high as $1.05 per gallon on March 11, and has averaged about $0.70 per gallon during April 2013. The increase in the ethanol RIN price provides an economic incentive for two changes in the market. First, a higher ethanol RIN price should lower the market price of E85 gasoline relative to E10 gasoline, thereby stimulating E85 sales. Second, an ethanol RIN price equal to or near the biodiesel RIN price may motivate increased blending of biodiesel.

At the retail level, EIA expects diesel fuel prices to be most affected by higher RIN prices as biodiesel blending yields only about one-third of the RINs required and diesel fuel refiners and blenders must make up for the shortfall by purchasing the now higher-priced RINs.

U.S. Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions

EIA estimates that carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels declined by 4 percent in 2012, and projects increases of 2.6 percent in 2013 and 0.6 percent in 2014. The increase in emissions over the forecast period primarily reflects the projected increase in coal use for electricity generation, especially in 2013 as it rebounds from the 2012 decline.