U.S. Energy Information Administration - EIA - Independent Statistics and Analysis
Short-Term Energy Outlook
Renewables and Carbon Dioxide Emissions
Electricity and Heat Generation from Renewables
EIA expects total renewables used in the electric power sector to increase by 13.0% in 2016 and by 3.3% in 2017. Forecast hydropower generation in the electric power sector increases by 11.2% in 2016 and then falls by 3.4% in 2017. Generation from renewables other than hydropower is forecast to grow by 14.5% in 2016 and by 8.9% in 2017.
EIA expects that from 2015 to 2017, utility-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity will grow by about 14 gigawatts (GW). States leading in utility-scale solar capacity additions are California, Nevada, North Carolina, Texas, and Georgia. According to EIA's Electric Power Monthly, electricity generation from utility-scale PV in 2015 exceeded generation from wind in California for the first time. Forecast utility-scale solar power generation averages 1.2% of total U.S. electricity generation in 2017.
Wind capacity, which starts from a significantly larger installed capacity base than solar, grew by 13% in 2015, and it is forecast to increase by 10% in both 2016 and 2017. In 2017, wind generation accounts for almost 6% of total electricity generation.
On November 30, 2015, EPA finalized a rule setting Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) volumes for 2014 through 2016, and on May 18, 2016, EPA released the proposed RFS volumes for 2017 along with finalized biomass-based diesel volumes for 2017. EIA used both the final and proposed volumes to develop the current STEO forecast through 2017. Ethanol production averaged almost 970,000 b/d in 2015, and it is forecast to average about 980,000 b/d in 2016 and 2017. Ethanol consumption averaged about 910,000 b/d in 2015, and it is forecast to average about 930,000 b/d in both 2016 and 2017. This level of consumption results in the ethanol share of the total gasoline pool averaging 10.0% in both 2016 and 2017. EIA does not expect significant increases in E15 or E85 consumption over the forecast period.
EIA expects the largest effect of the RFS targets will be on biomass-based diesel consumption, which includes both biodiesel and renewable diesel and helps to meet the RFS targets for use of biomass-based diesel, advanced biofuel, and total renewable fuel. Biodiesel production averaged 82,000 b/d in 2015 and is forecast to average 100,000 b/d in 2016 and 106,000 b/d in 2017. Net imports of biomass-based diesel are expected to rise from 29,000 b/d in 2015 to 41,000 b/d in 2016 and to 47,000 b/d in 2017. EIA assumes 10,000 b/d of domestic renewable diesel consumption will be used to help meet the biomass-based diesel and advanced biofuels RFS targets in both 2016 and 2017.
Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions
EIA estimates that energy-related emissions of carbon dioxide decreased by 2.8% in 2015. Emissions are forecast to decrease by 1.7% in 2016 and then to increase by 1.4% in 2017. These forecasts are sensitive to assumptions about weather and economic growth.
|U.S. Renewables & CO2 Emissions Summary|
|2014||2015||2016 projected||2017 projected|
a Conventional hydroelectric power only. Hydroelectricity generated by pumped storage is not included in renewable energy.
b Includes electricity and heat generation
c Other renewables includes biofuels production losses and co-products
d Includes electric power sector use of geothermal energy and non-biomass waste
|U.S. Renewables Consumption||(quadrillion Btu)|
|Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Fuel||(million metric tons)|
|Petroleum and Other Liquid Fuels||2252||2284||2281||2296|
Interactive Data Viewers
|U.S. Renewable Energy Supply||XLSX||PNG|
|U.S. Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions Growth||XLSX||PNG|
|U.S. Total Industrial Production Index||XLSX||PNG|
|U.S. Disposable Income||XLSX||PNG|
|Today In Energy||Daily|
|U.S. Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions||Annual|
|State-Level Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions||Annual|
|Changes to Electricity and Renewables Tables||Aug-2012|
|Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in the United States||31-Mar-2011|
|Understanding the Decline in CO2 Emissions in 2009||Oct-2009|
|Biodiesel Supply and Consumption||Apr-2009|