‹ Analysis & Projections

Annual Energy Outlook 2014

Release Dates: April 7 - 30, 2014   |  Next Early Release Date: December 2014   |  See schedule

NEMS overview and brief description of cases

Table E1. Summary of the AEO2013 cases
Case name Description
Reference Real GDP grows at an average annual rate of 2.5 percent from 2011 to 2040. Crude oil prices rise to about $163 per barrel (2011 dollars) in 2040. Complete projection tables in Appendix A.
Low Economic Growth Real GDP grows at an average annual rate of 1.9 percent from 2011 to 2040. Other energy market assumptions are the same as in the Reference case. Partial projection tables in Appendix B.
High Economic Growth Real GDP grows at an average annual rate of 2.9 percent from 2011 to 2040. Other energy market assumptions are the same as in the Reference case. Partial projection tables in Appendix B.
Low Oil Price Low prices result from a combination of low demand for petroleum and other liquids in the non-OECD nations and higher global supply. Lower demand is measured by lower economic growth relative to the Reference case. On the supply side, OPEC increases its market share to 49 percent, and the costs of other liquids production technologies are lower than in the Reference case.Light, sweet crude oil prices fall to $75 per barrel in 2040. Partial projection tables in Appendix C.
High Oil Price High prices result from a combination of higher demand for petroleum and other liquids in the non-OECD nations and lower global supply. Higher demand is measured by higher economic growth relative to the Reference case. Non- OPEC petroleum production expands more slowly in the short to middle term relative to the Reference case. Crude oil prices rise to $237 per barrel (2011 dollars) in 2040. Partial projection tables in Appendix C.
No sunset Begins with the Reference case and assumes extension of all existing energy policies and legislation that contain sunset provisions, except those requiring additional funding (e.g., loan guarantee programs) and those that involve extensive regulatory analysis, such as CAFE improvements and periodic updates of efficiency standards. Partial projection tables in Appendix D.
Extended Policies Begins with the No Sunset case and assumes an increase in the capacity limitations on the ITC and extension of the program. The case includes additional rounds of efficiency standards for residential and commercial products, as well as new standards for products not yet covered; adds multiple rounds of national building codes by 2026; and increases LDV fuel economy standards in the transportation sector to 57.7 miles per gallon in 2040. Partial projection tables in Appendix D.
Electricity: Low Nuclear Assumes that all nuclear plants are limited to a 60-year life (45 gigawatts of retirements), uprates are limited to the 1.3 gigawatts that have been reported to EIA, and planned additions are the same as in the Reference case. Partial projection tables in Appendix D.
Electricity: High Nuclear Assumes that all nuclear plants are life-extended beyond 60 years (except for one announced retirement), and uprates are the same as in the Reference case. New plants include those under construction and plants that have a scheduled U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) or Atomic Safety and Licensing Board hearing. Partial projection tables in Appendix D.
Electricity: Small Modular Reactor Assumes that the characteristics of the new advanced nuclear technology are based on a small modular design rather than the AP1000. Partial projection tables in Appendix D.
Renewable Fuels: Low Renewable Technology Cost Costs for new nonhydropower renewable generating technologies are 20 percent lower than Reference case levels through 2040. Capital costs for new BTL technologies and biodiesel production technologies are reduced by 20 percent relative to the Reference case through 2040. Partial projection tables in Appendix D.
Oil and Gas: Low Oil and Gas Resource Estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) per shale gas, tight gas, and tight oil well is 50 percent lower than in the Reference case. Partial projection tables in Appendix D.
Oil and Gas: High Oil and Gas Resource Shale gas, tight gas, and tight oil well EURs are 100 percent higher than in the Reference case, and the maximum well spacing is assumed to be 40 acres. Also includes kerogen development, tight oil resources in Alaska, and 50 percent higher undiscovered resources in lower 48 offshore and Alaska than in the Reference case. Partial projection tables in Appendix D.
Liquids Market: Low/No Net Imports Uses AEO2013 Reference case oil price, with assumed greater improvement in vehicle efficiency and lower vehicle technology costs; post-2025 increase in CAFE standards by 1.4 percent through 2040; lower vehicle miles traveled (VMT); expanded market availability of LNG/CNG in heavy-duty trucks, rail, and marine; higher GTL market penetration; optimistic battery case (AEO2012) assumptions for electric drivetrain vehicle costs; and greater availability of domestic petroleum supply (consistent with the High Oil and Gas Resource case). Also assumes increased market penetration of biomass pyrolysis oils, CTL, and BTL production. Also, initial assumptions associated with E85 availability and maximum penetration of E15 are set to be more optimistic. Partial projection tables in Appendix D.
Liquids Market: High Net Imports Uses AEO2013 Reference case oil price, with assumed lower improvement in vehicle efficiency (driven by limits on technology improvement and nonenforcement of CAFE standards), higher VMT, no change in LNG/CNG market availability, no change in GTL penetration, no change in biofuel market penetration from the Reference case, and lower availability of domestic petroleum supply (consistent with the Low Oil and Gas Resource case). Partial projection tables in Appendix D.
Coal: Low Coal Cost Regional productivity growth rates for coal mining are approximately 2.5 percent per year higher than in the Reference case, and coal mining wages, mine equipment, and coal transportation rates are lower than in the Reference case, falling to about 25 percent below the Reference case in 2040. Partial projection tables in Appendix D.
Coal: High Coal Cost Regional productivity growth rates for coal mining are approximately 2.5 percent per year lower than in the Reference case, and coal mining wages, mine equipment, and coal transportation rates are higher than in the Reference case, ranging between 25 and 32 percent above the Reference case in 2040. Partial projection tables in Appendix D.
Integrated 2012 Demand Technology Referred to in the text as "2012 Demand Technology." Assumes that future equipment purchases in the residential and commercial sectors are based only on the range of equipment available in 2012. Building shell efficiency is held constant at 2012 levels. Energy efficiency of new industrial plant and equipment is held constant at the 2013 level over the projection period. Partial projection tables in Appendix D.
Integrated Best Available Demand Technology Referred to in the text as "Best Available Demand Technology." Assumes that all future equipment purchases in the residential and commercial sectors are made from a menu of technologies that includes only the most efficient models available in a particular year, regardless of cost. Residential building shells for new construction are built to the most efficient specifications after 2012, and existing residential shells have twice the improvement of the Reference case. New and existing commercial building shell efficiencies improve 50 percent more than in the Reference case by 2040. Industrial and transportation sector assumptions are the same as in the Reference case. Partial projection tables in Appendix D.
Integrated High Demand Technology Referred to in the text as High Demand Technology. Assumes earlier availability, lower costs, and higher efficiencies for more advanced residential and commercial equipment. For new residential construction, building shell efficiencies are assumed to meet ENERGY STAR requirements after 2016. Existing residential shell exhibits 50 percent more improvement than in the Reference case after 2012. New and existing commercial building shells are assumed to improve 25 percent more than in the Reference case by 2040. For the industrial sector, assumes earlier availability, lower costs, and higher efficiency for more advanced equipment and a more rapid rate of improvement in the recovery of biomass byproducts from industrial processes. In the transportation sector, the characteristics of conventional and alternative-fuel LDVs reflect more optimistic assumptions about incremental improvements in fuel economy and costs. Freight trucks are assumed to see more rapid improvement in fuel efficiency for engine and emissions control technologies. More optimistic assumptions for fuel efficiency improvements are also made for the air, rail, and shipping sectors. Partial projection tables in Appendix D.
No GHG Concern No GHG emissions reduction policy is enacted, and market investment decisions are not altered in anticipation of such a policy. Partial projection tables in Appendix D.
GHG10 Applies a price for CO2 emissions throughout the economy, starting at $10 per metric ton in 2014 and rising by 5 percent per year through 2040. Partial projection tables in Appendix D.
GHG15 Applies a price for CO2 emissions throughout the economy, starting at $15 per metric ton in 2014 and rising by 5 percent per year through 2040. Partial projection tables in Appendix D.
GHG25 Applies a price for CO2 emissions throughout the economy, starting at $25 per metric ton in 2014 and rising by 5 percent per year through 2040. Partial projection tables in Appendix D.
GHG10 and Low Gas Prices Combines GHG10 and High Oil and Gas Resource cases. Partial projection tables in Appendix D.
GHG15 and Low Gas Prices Combines GHG15 and High Oil and Gas Resource cases. Partial projection tables in Appendix D.
GHG25 and Low Gas Prices Combines GHG25 and High Oil and Gas Resource cases. Partial projection tables in Appendix D.