‹ Analysis & Projections

Annual Energy Outlook 2014

Release Date: May 7, 2014   |  Next Early Release Date: December 2014   |  See schedule  |  full report

Comparison with other projections

Table 13. Comparisons of liquids projections, 2025, 2035, and 2040
(million barrels per day, except where noted)
      Other projections
Projection 2011 AEO2013
Reference case
EVA INFORUMa IEAb,c ExxonMobila IHSGIa
        2025      
Average U.S. imported RAC
(2011 dollars per barrel)
102.65 113.48 -- 126.18 -- -- 91.38
Brent spot price (2011 dollars per barrel) 111.26 117.36 78.18 136.77 135.70c -- --
U.S. WTI crude oil price (2011 dollars per barrel) 94.86 115.36 -- -- -- -- 93.05
Domestic production 7.88 9.96 12.08 -- -- -- 9.52
Crude oil 5.67 6.79 8.44 8.57 -- -- 6.86
Alaska 0.57 0.35 0.36 -- -- -- --
Natural gas liquids 2.22 3.17 3.64 -- -- -- 2.66
Total net imports 8.58 7.01 -- 7.08 -- -- 5.98
Crude oil 8.89 7.05 -- 7.08 -- -- 7.36
Products -0.30 -0.04 -- -- -- -- -1.38
Liquids Consumption 18.95 19.50 -- 18.62 -- 19.04 17.59
Net petroleum import share of liquids supplied (percent) 44 37 -- -- -- -- 33
Biofuel production 0.97 1.08 -- -- -- -- 1.18
Transportation product prices (2011 dollars per gallon)
Gasoline 3.45 3.49 -- 3.97 -- -- 3.17
Diesel 3.58 3.97 -- 4.00 -- -- 3.34
        2035      
Average U.S. imported RAC (2011 dollars per barrel) 102.65 138.70 -- 137.97 -- -- 84.51
Brent spot price (2011 dollars per barrel) 111.26 145.41 82.16 149.55 145.00c -- --
U.S. WTI crude oil price (2011 dollars per barrel) 94.86 143.41 -- -- -- -- 86.25
Domestic production 7.88 9.17 12.42 -- -- -- 9.31
Crude oil 5.67 6.26 8.50 9.49 -- -- 6.43
Alaska 0.57 0.35 0.00 -- -- -- --
Natural gas liquids 2.22 2.91 3.92 -- -- -- 2.88
Total net imports 8.58 7.00 -- 7.40 -- -- 4.67
Crude oil 8.89 7.37 -- 7.40 -- -- 7.03
Products -0.30 -0.37 -- -- -- -- -2.36
Liquids consumption 18.95 18.86 -- 19.24 15.14 18.01 16.07
Net petroleum import share of liquids supplied (percent) 44 36 -- -- -- -- 28
Biofuel production 0.97 1.13 -- -- -- -- 1.39
Transportation product prices (2011 dollars per gallon)
Gasoline 3.45 3.94 -- 4.14 -- -- 2.93
Diesel 3.58 4.55 -- 4.06 -- -- 3.06
        2040      
Average U.S. imported RAC
(2011 dollars per barrel)
102.65 154.96 -- -- -- -- 79.46
Brent spot price (2011 dollars per barrel) 111.26 162.68 87.43 -- -- -- --
US. WTI crude oil price (2011 dollars per barrel) 94.86 160.68 -- -- -- -- 81.20
Domestic production 7.88 9.05 -- -- -- -- 9.31
Crude oil 5.67 6.13 -- -- -- -- 6.43
Alaska 0.57 0.41 -- -- -- -- --
Natural gas liquids 2.22 2.92 -- -- -- -- 2.88
Total net imports 8.58 6.91 -- -- -- -- 4.11
Crude oil 8.89 7.57 -- -- -- -- 6.71
Products -0.30 -0.67 -- -- -- -- -2.60
Liquids consumption 18.95 18.95 -- -- -- 17.50 15.48
Net petroleum import share of liquids supplied (percent) 44 35 -- -- -- -- 25
Biofuel production 0.97 1.33 -- -- -- -- 1.44
Transportation product prices (2011 dollars per gallon)
Gasoline 3.45 4.32 -- -- -- -- 2.78
Diesel 3.58 4.94 -- -- -- -- 2.91

-- = not reported.
aFor INFORUM, ExxonMobil, and IHSGI, liquids demand data were converted from quadrillion Btu to barrels at 187.84572 million barrels per quadrillion Btu.
bFor IEA, liquids demand data were converted from metric tons to barrels at 8.162674 barrels per metric ton.
cIEA crude oil prices represent the international average of crude oil import prices.