Analysis & Projections

All Reports

Today in Energy - Projections

Short, timely articles with graphs about recent analyses and projections.

Availability and Price of Petroleum and Petroleum Products Produced in Countries Other Than Iran, The

Released: August 28, 2014

This report was prepared in fulfillment of Section 1245(d)(4)(A) of the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for Fiscal Year 2012, which requires that, not later than 60 days from enactment and every 60 days thereafter, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) "submit to Congress a report on the availability and price of petroleum and petroleum products produced in countries other than Iran in the 60-day period preceding the submission of the report." (archived versions)

 
Renewable Fuels Module

Released: August 26, 2014

This report documents the objectives, analytical approach, and design of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Renewable Fuels Module (RFM) as it relates to the production of the Annual Energy Outlook forecasts.

 
Residential Demand Module

Released: August 14, 2014

Model Documentation - Documents the objectives, analytical approach, and development of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Residential Demand Module. The report catalogues and describes the model assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and FORTRAN source code.

 
Commercial Demand Module

Released: August 14, 2014

Documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Commercial Demand Module. The report catalogues and describes the model assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, model source code, and forecast results generated through the synthesis and scenario development based on these components.

 
Market Prices and Uncertainty Report

Released: August 12, 2014

A regular monthly supplement to the Short-Term Energy Outlook with analysis of crude oil, petroleum products, natural gas, and propane prices. (archived versions)

 
Short-Term Energy Outlook

Released: August 12, 2014

Short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections through 2015 for the United States and international oil forecasts. (archived versions)

 
Electricity Market Module

Released: August 8, 2014

Documents the Electricity Market Module as it was used for the Annual Energy Outlook 2014. The Electricity Market Module (EMM) is the electricity supply component of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The EMM represents the generation, transmission, and pricing of electricity. It consists of four submodules: the Electricity Capacity Planning (ECP) Submodule, the Electricity Fuel Dispatch (EFD) Submodule, the Electricity Finance and Pricing (EFP) Submodule, and the Electricity Load and Demand (ELD) Submodule.

 
Industrial Demand Module

Released: August 6, 2014

Documents the objectives, analytical approach, and development of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Industrial Demand Module. The report catalogues and describes model assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and model source code.

 
Liquid Fuels Market Model

Released: August 1, 2014

Defines the objectives of the Liquid Fuels Market Model (LFMM), describes its basic approach, and provides detail on how it works. This report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public.

 
International Energy Module

Released: July 29, 2014

Summarizes the overall structure of the International Energy Model and its interface with other NEMS modules, mathematical specifications of behavioral relationships, and data sources and estimation methods.

 
Coal Market Module

Released: July 22, 2014

Documents the objectives and the conceptual and methodological approach used in the development of the National Energy Modeling System's (NEMS) Coal Market Module (CMM) used to develop the Annual Energy Outlook 2014 (AEO2014). This report catalogues and describes the assumptions, methodology, estimation techniques, and source code of CMM's two submodules. These are the Coal Production Submodule (CPS) and the Coal Distribution Submodule (CDS).

 
Oil and Gas Supply Module (OGSM)

Released: July 16, 2014

Defines the objectives of the Oil and Gas Supply Model (OGSM), to describe the model's basic approach, and to provide detail on how the model works. This report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public.

 
Integrating Module of the National Energy Modeling System: Model Documentation

Released: July 15, 2014

Provides an overview of the complete National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) model, and includes brief descriptions of the modules with which the Integrating Module interacts. The emphasis and focus, however, is on the structure and function of the Integrating Module of NEMS.

 
Transportation Demand Module

Released: July 8, 2014

Documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Transportation Model (TRAN). The report catalogues and describes the model assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, model source code, and forecast results generated by the model.

 
Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Module

Released: July 3, 2014

Documents the archived version of the Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Model that was used to produce the natural gas forecasts used in support of the Annual Energy Outlook 2014.

 
Issues in International Energy Consumption Analysis: Chinese Transportation Fuel Demand

Released: July 1, 2014

 
Sales of Fossil Fuels Produced from Federal and Indian Lands, FY 2003 through FY 2013

Released: June 19, 2014

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that total sales of fossil fuels from production1 on federal and Indian lands decreased by 7% during fiscal year 2013. The decrease in production on federal lands alone was also 7%. Sales from production on Indian lands, which account for less than 7% of total federal and Indian lands production, increased by 9%.

 
Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook

Released: June 11, 2014

This report presents the major assumptions of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) used to generate the projections in the Annual Energy Outlook, including general features of the model structure, assumptions concerning energy markets, and the key input data and parameters that are the most significant in formulating the model results. (archived versions)

 
Macroeconomic Activity Module

Released: June 4, 2014

Documents the objectives, analytical approach, and development of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Macroeconomic Activity Module (MAM) used to develop the Annual Energy Outlook for 2014 (AEO2014). The report catalogues and describes the module assumptions, computations, methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and mainframe source code

 
U.S. Crude Oil Production Forecast-Analysis of Crude Types

Released: May 29, 2014

This paper provides a short-term forecast of domestic production by crude type, supplementing the overall production forecast provided in STEO. Forecasts of production by crude type matter for several reasons. First, U.S. crude streams vary widely in quality. Second, the economics surrounding various options for the domestic use of additional domestic oil production are directly dependent on crude quality characteristics. Third, actual or potential export values also vary significantly with quality characteristics.

 
Annual Energy Outlook

Released: May 7, 2014

The projections in the U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA's) Annual Energy Outlook 2014 (AEO2014) focus on the factors that shape the U.S. energy system over the long term. Under the assumption that current laws and regulations remain unchanged throughout the projections, the AEO2014 Reference case provides the basis for examination and discussion of energy production, consumption, technology, and market trends and the direction they may take in the future. It also serves as a starting point for analysis of potential changes in energy policies. (archived versions)

Annual Energy Outlook Retrospective Review

Released: April 7, 2014

The Annual Energy Outlook Retrospective Review provides a yearly comparison between realized energy outcomes and the Reference case projections included in previous Annual Energy Outlooks (AEO) beginning with 1982. This edition of the report adds the AEO 2012 projections and updates the historical data to incorporate the latest data revisions. (archived versions)

 
Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Electricity Generation and Fuel Consumption Models

Released: January 9, 2014

The electricity generation and fuel consumption models of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) model provide forecasts of electricity generation from various types of energy sources and forecasts of the quantities of fossil fuels consumed for power generation. The structure of the electricity industry and the behavior of power generators varies between different areas of the United States. In order to capture these differences, the STEO electricity supply and fuel consumption models are designed to provide forecasts for the four primary Census regions.

 
How to obtain the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS)

Released: November 6, 2013

The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) NEMS is used by the modelers at the U. S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) who understand its structure and programming. NEMS has only been used by a few organizations outside of the EIA, because most people that requested NEMS found out that it was too difficult or rigid to use. NEMS is not typically used for state-level analysis and is poorly suited for application to other countries. However, many do obtain the model simply to use the data in its input files or to examine the source code.

World Energy Projection System Plus (WEPS+): Global Activity Module

Released: October 23, 2013

World Energy Projection System Plus Model Documentation: Global Activity Module Documents the objectives, analytical approach, and development of the World Energy Projection Plus (WEPS+) Global Activity Module (GAM) used to develop the International Energy Outlook for 2013 (IEO2013). The report catalogues and describes the module assumptions, computations, methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and mainframe source code.

 
Winter Fuels Outlook 2013

Released: October 8, 2013

Heating costs for most households are forecast to rise from last winter’s level.

 
EIA Estimates of Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Supply Disruptions

Released: September 10, 2013

Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement: Energy Information Administration estimates of crude oil and liquid fuels supply disruptions

 
Status of Libyan Loading Ports and Oil and Natural Gas Fields

Released: September 10, 2013

Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement: Status of Libyan Loading Ports and Oil and Natural Gas Fields

 
Modeling Distributed Generation in the Buildings Sectors

Released: August 29, 2013

This report focuses on how the Energy Information Administrationmodels residential and commercial sector distributed generation, including combined heat and power, for the Annual Energy Outlook.

 
Distributed Generation System Characteristics and Costs in the Buildings Sector

Released: August 7, 2013

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) works with technology experts to project the cost and performance of future residential and commercial sector photovoltaic (PV) and small wind installations rather than developing technology projections in-house. These reports have always been available by request. By providing the reports online, EIA is increasing transparency for the assumptions used for our Annual Energy Outlook buildings sector distributed generation projections.

 
Updated Buildings Sector Appliance and Equipment Costs and Efficiency

Released: August 7, 2013

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) works with technology experts to project the cost and efficiency of future heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC), lighting, and other major end-use equipment rather than developing residential and commercial technology projections in-house. These reports have always been available by request. By providing the reports online, EIA is increasing transparency for some of the most important assumptions used for our Annual Energy Outlook projections of buildings energy demand.

 
International Energy Outlook

Released: July 25, 2013

This report presents international energy projections through 2040, prepared by the Energy Information Administration, including outlooks for major energy fuels and associated carbon dioxide emissions. (archived versions)

 
Further Sensitivity Analysis of Hypothetical Policies to Limit Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions

Released: July 18, 2013

This analysis supplements the Annual Energy Outlook 2013 alternative cases which imposed hypothetical carbon dioxide emission fees on fossil fuel consumers. It offers further cases that examine the impacts of fees placed only on the emissions from electric power facilities, impacts of returning potential revenues to consumers, and two cap-and-trade policies.

 
State Energy Efficiency Program Evaluation Inventory

Released: July 11, 2013

The focus of this inventory, some of which has been placed into a searchable spreadsheet, is to support the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) and to research cost information in state-mandated energy efficiency program evaluations – e.g., for use in updating analytic and modeling assumptions used by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

 
Technically Recoverable Shale Oil and Shale Gas Resources: An Assessment of 137 Shale Formations in 41 Countries Outside the United States

Released: June 10, 2013

This report provides an initial assessment of shale oil resources and updates a prior assessment of shale gas resources issued in April 2011. It assesses 137 shale formations in 41 countries outside the United States, expanding on the 69 shale formations within 32 countries considered in the prior report.

 
Supplemental Tables to the Annual Energy Outlook

Released: May 1, 2013

The Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) Supplemental tables were generated for the reference case of the AEO using the National Energy Modeling System, a computer-based model which produces annual projections of energy markets. Most of the tables were not published in the AEO, but contain regional and other more detailed projections underlying the AEO projections. (archived versions)

Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Petroleum Products Supply Module

Released: May 1, 2013

The Petroleum Products Supply Module of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) model provides forecasts of petroleum refinery inputs (crude oil, unfinished oils, pentanes plus, liquefied petroleum gas, motor gasoline blending components, and aviation gasoline blending components) and refinery outputs (motor gasoline, jet fuel, distillate fuel, residual fuel, liquefied petroleum gas, and other petroleum products).

 
Updated Capital Cost Estimates for Utility Scale Electricity Generating Plants

Released: April 12, 2013

The current and future projected cost and performance characteristics of new electric generating capacity are a critical input into the development of energy projections and analyses.

 
Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement: Key drivers for EIA's short-term U.S. crude oil production outlook

Released: February 14, 2013

Crude oil production increased by 790,000 barrels per day (bbl/d) between 2011 and 2012, the largest increase in annual output since the beginning of U.S. commercial crude oil production in 1859. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects U.S. crude oil production to continue rising over the next two years represented in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO).

 
Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement: Constraints in New England likely to affect regional energy prices this winter

Released: January 18, 2013

Since November, New England has had the highest average spot natural gas prices in the nation. Average prices at the Algonquin Citygate trading point, a widely used index for New England natural gas buyers, have been $3 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) higher than natural gas prices at the Henry Hub, and more than $2 per MMBtu higher than average spot price at Transco Zone 6 NY, which serves New York City and has historically traded at prices similar to those in New England.

 
Natural Gas Exports from Iran

Released: October 9, 2012

This assessment of the natural gas sector in Iran, with a focus on Iran’s natural gas exports, was prepared pursuant to section 505 (a) of the Iran Threat Reduction and Syria Human Rights Act of 2012 (Public Law No: 112-158). As requested, it includes: (1) an assessment of exports of natural gas from Iran; (2) an identification of the countries that purchase the most natural gas from Iran; (3) an assessment of alternative supplies of natural gas available to those countries; (4) an assessment of the impact a reduction in exports of natural gas from Iran would have on global natural gas supplies and the price of natural gas, especially in countries identified under number (2); and (5) such other information as the Administrator considers appropriate.

 
Fuel Competition in Power Generation and Elasticities of Substitution

Released: June 21, 2012

This report analyzes the competition between coal, natural gas and petroleum used for electricity generation by estimating what is referred to by economists as the elasticity of substitution among the fuels.

 
Analysis of the Clean Energy Standard Act of 2012

Released: May 2, 2012

Analyzes the impacts of proposed legislation to enact a Clean Energy Standard (CES), as proposed by Senator Bingaman. This policy would require covered electricity retailers to supply a specified share of their electricity sales from qualifying clean energy resources, including renewable energy and nuclear. Fossil fuels with low carbon intensity (carbon emissions per unit of generation) may also partially qualify as clean energy resources.

 
Potential Impacts of Reductions in Refinery Activity on Northeast Petroleum Product Markets

Released: February 27, 2012

Potential Impacts of Reductions in Refinery Activity on Northeast Petroleum Product Markets is an update to a previous Energy Information Administration (EIA) report, Reductions in Northeast Refining Activity: Potential Implications for Petroleum Product Markets, released in December 2011. This update analyzes possible market responses and impacts in the event Sunoco's Philadelphia refinery closes this summer, in addition to the recently idled refineries on the East Coast and in the U.S. Virgin Islands.

 
Effect of Increased Natural Gas Exports on Domestic Energy Markets

Released: January 19, 2012

This report responds to an August 2011 request from the Department of Energy's Office of Fossil Energy (DOE\/FE) for an analysis of "the impact of increased domestic natural gas demand, as exports." Appendix A provides a copy of the DOE\/FE request letter. Specifically, DOE\/FE asked the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) to assess how specified scenarios of increased natural gas exports could affect domestic energy markets, focusing on consumption, production, and prices.

 
Reductions in Northeast Refining Activity: Potential Implications for Petroleum Product Markets

Released: December 23, 2011

This report is the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) initial effort to provide information and analysis on the potential impacts on petroleum product markets from reductions in Northeast petroleum refining activity.

 
Energy & Financial Markets: What Drives Crude Oil Prices?

Released: December 14, 2011

An assessment of the various factors that may influence oil prices - physical market factors as well as those related to trading and financial markets. The analysis describes seven key factors that could influence oil markets and explores possible linkages between each factor and oil prices, and includes regularly updated graphs that depict aspects of those relationships.

Smart Grid Legislative and Regulatory Policies and Case Studies

Released: December 12, 2011

In recent years, a number of U.S. states have adopted or are considering smart grid related laws, regulations, and voluntary or mandatory requirements. At the same time, the number of smart grid pilot projects has been increasing rapidly. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) commissioned SAIC to research the development of smart grid in the United States and abroad. The research produced several documents that will help guide EIA as it considers how best to track smart grid developments.

 
Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Motor Gasoline Consumption Model

Released: November 30, 2011

The motor gasoline consumption module of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) model is designed to provide forecasts of total U.S. consumption of motor gasolien based on estimates of vehicle miles traveled and average vehicle fuel economy.

 
Analysis of Impacts of a Clean Energy Standard as requested by Chairman Bingaman

Released: November 30, 2011

This report addresses an August 2011 request to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) from Senator Jeff Bingaman, Chairman of the U.S. Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, for an analysis of the impacts of a Clean Energy Standard (CES).

 
Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Other Petroleum Products Consumption Model

Released: November 30, 2011

The other petroleum product consumption module of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) model is designed to provide U.S. consumption forecasts for 6 petroleum product categories: asphalt and road oil, petrochemical feedstocks, petroleum coke, refinery still gas, unfinished oils, and other miscvellaneous products

 
Analysis of Impacts of a Clean Energy Standard as requested by Chairman Hall

Released: October 25, 2011

This report responds to a request from Chairman Ralph M. Hall for an analysis of the impacts of a Clean Energy Standard (CES). The request, as outlined in the letter included in Appendix A, sets out specific assumptions and scenarios for the study.

 
World Energy Projection System Plus Model Documentation: Industrial Model

Released: October 12, 2011

This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the World Energy Projection System Plus (WEPS+) World Industrial Model (WIM). It also catalogues and describes critical assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and model source code.

 
World Energy Projection System Plus Model Documentation: World Electricity Model

Released: September 29, 2011

This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the World Energy Projection System Plus (WEPS+) World Electricity Model. It also catalogues and describes critical assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and model source code.

 
World Energy Projection System Plus Model Documentation: Transportation Model

Released: September 29, 2011

This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the World Energy Projection System Plus (WEPS+) International Transportation model. It also catalogues and describes critical assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and model source code.

 
World Energy Projection System Plus Model Documentation: Residential Model

Released: September 29, 2011

This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the World Energy Projection System Plus (WEPS+) Residential Model. It also catalogues and describes critical assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and model source code.

 
World Energy Projection System Plus Model Documentation: Greenhouse Gases Model

Released: September 29, 2011

This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the World Energy Projection System Plus (WEPS+) Greenhouse Gases Model. It also catalogues and describes critical assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and model source code.

 
World Energy Projection System Plus Model Documentation: Coal Model

Released: September 29, 2011

This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the World Energy Projection System Plus (WEPS+) Coal Model. It also catalogues and describes critical assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and model source code.

 
World Energy Projection System Plus Model Documentation: District Heat Model

Released: September 29, 2011

This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the World Energy Projection System Plus (WEPS+) District Heat Model. It also catalogues and describes critical assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and model source code.

 
World Energy Projection System Plus Model Documentation: Natural Gas Model

Released: September 29, 2011

This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the World Energy Projection System Plus (WEPS+) Natural Gas Model. It also catalogues and describes critical assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and model source code.

 
World Energy Projection System Plus: An Overview

Released: September 29, 2011

This report contains a summary description of the methodology and scope of WEPS+ and each of its component models. WEPS+ is a computer-based, energy modeling system of long-term international energy markets for the period through 2035. The system was used to produce the International Energy Outlook 2011. (archived versions)

 
World Energy Projection System Plus Model Documentation: Commercial Model

Released: September 29, 2011

This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the World Energy Projection System Plus (WEPS+) Commercial Model. It also catalogues and describes critical assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and model source code.

 
Direct Federal Financial Interventions and Subsidies in Energy in Fiscal Year 2010

Released: August 1, 2011

This report responds to a November 2010 request to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) from U.S. Representatives Roscoe G. Bartlett, Marsha Blackburn, and Jason Chaffetz for an update to a 2008 report prepared by EIA that provided a snapshot of direct federal financial interventions and subsidies in energy markets in fiscal year (FY) 2007, focusing on subsidies to electricity production. As requested, this report updates the previous report using FY 2010 data and is limited to subsidies that are provided by the federal government, provide a financial benefit with an identifiable federal budget impact, and are specifically targeted at energy markets. Subsidies to federal electric utilities, in the way of financial support, are also included as requested.

 
Improving the Quality and Scope of EIA Data

Released: July 27, 2011

Section 805(a) of the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA), Public Law 110-1401 requires the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) to establish a five-year plan to enhance the quality and scope of its data collection necessary to ensure that the scope, accuracy, and timeliness of the information needed for efficient functioning of energy markets and related financial operations. This report is in response to section 805(b) of EISA which calls on EIA to submit to Congress the plan established under subsection (a), including a description of any improvements needed to enhance the ability of the Administrator to collect and process energy information in a manner consistent with the needs of energy markets.

 
World Shale Gas Resources: An Initial Assessment of 14 Regions Outside the United States

Released: April 5, 2011

The Energy Information Administration sponsored Advanced Resources International, Inc., to assess 48 gas shale basins in 32 countries, containing almost 70 shale gas formations. This effort has culminated in the report: World Shale Gas Resources: An Initial Assessment of 14 Regions Outside the United States.

 
Modeling Distributed Electricity Generation in the NEMS Buildings Models

Released: January 25, 2011

This paper presents the modeling methodology, projected market penetration, and impact of distributed generation with respect to offsetting future electricity needs and carbon dioxide emissions in the residential and commercial buildings sector in the Annual Energy Outlook 2000 (AEO2000) reference case.

 
World Energy Projection System Plus Model Documentation: Main Model

Released: January 20, 2011

This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the World Energy Projection System Plus (WEPS+) Main Model. It also catalogues and describes critical assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and model source code.

 
Changes in Natural Gas Monthly Consumption Data Collection and the Short-Term Energy Outlook

Released: December 1, 2010

Beginning with the December 2010 issue of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the Energy Information Administration (EIA) will present natural gas consumption forecasts for the residential and commercial sectors that are consistent with recent changes to the Form EIA-857 monthly natural gas survey.

 
Analysis of Selected Provisions of the Domestic Manufacturing and Energy Jobs Act of 2010

Released: October 18, 2010

This report responds to a letter dated August 16, 2010, from Janice Mays, Staff Director of the U.S. House of Representatives' Committee on Ways and Means, requesting that the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) analyze several provisions included in the July 26, 2010, discussion draft of the Domestic Manufacturing and Energy Jobs Act of 2010.

 
Energy Market and Economic Impacts of the American Power Act of 2010

Released: July 16, 2010

This report responds to a request from Senators Kerry, Graham, and Lieberman for an analysis of the American Power Act of 2010 (APA). APA, as released by Senators Kerry and Lieberman on May 12, 2010, regulates emissions of greenhouse gases through market-based mechanisms, efficiency programs, and other economic incentives.

 
Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Macro Bridge Procedure to Update Regional Macroeconomic Forecasts with National Macroeconomic Forecasts

Released: June 1, 2010

The Regional Short-Term Energy Model (RSTEM) uses macroeconomic variables such as income, employment, industrial production and consumer prices at both the national and regional1 levels as explanatory variables in the generation of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). This documentation explains how national macroeconomic forecasts are used to update regional macroeconomic forecasts through the RSTEM Macro Bridge procedure.

 
2010 Outlook for Hurricane-Related Production Outages in the Gulf of Mexico - Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement:

Released: June 1, 2010

Projected impacts to Gulf of Mexico crude oil and natural gas production for the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season.

 
Natural Gas as a Fuel for Heavy Trucks: Issues and Incentives (released in AEO2010)

Released: May 11, 2010

Environmental and energy security concerns related to petroleum use for transportation fuels, together with recent growth in U.S. proved reserves and technically recoverable natural gas resources, including shale gas, have sparked interest in policy proposals aimed at stimulating increased use of natural gas as a vehicle fuel, particularly for heavy trucks.

Liquid Fuels Taxes and Credits (released in AEO2010)

Released: May 11, 2010

Provides a review of the treatment of federal fuels taxes and tax credits in Annual Energy Outlook 2010.

No Sunset and Extended Policies Cases (released in AEO2010)

Released: May 11, 2010

The Annual Energy Outlook 2010 Reference case is best described as a current laws and regulations case, because it generally assumes that existing laws and fully promulgated regulations will remain unchanged throughout the projection period, unless the legislation establishing them specifically calls for them to end or change. The Reference case often serves as a starting point for the analysis of proposed legislative or regulatory changes, a task that would be difficult if the Reference case included projected legislative or regulatory changes.

American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009: Summary of Provisions (released in AEO2010)

Released: May 11, 2010

The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA), signed into law in mid-February 2009, provides significant new federal funding, loan guarantees, and tax credits to stimulate investments in energy efficiency and renewable energy. The provisions of ARRA were incorporated initially as part of a revision to the Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference case that was released in April 2009, and they also are included in Annual Energy Outlook 2010.

Energy Demand (released in AEO2010)

Released: May 11, 2010

Growth in U.S. energy use is linked to population growth through increases in demand for housing, commercial floorspace, transportation, manufacturing, and services. This affects not only the level of energy use, but also the mix of fuels and consumption by sector.

Comparing Efficiency Projections (released in AEO2010)

Released: May 11, 2010

Realized improvements in energy efficiency generally rely on a combination of technology and economics. The figure below illustrates the role of technology assumptions in the Annual Energy Outlook 2010 projections for energy efficiency in the residential and commercial buildings sector. Projected energy consumption in the Reference case is compared with projections in the Best Available Technology, High Technology, and 2009 Technology cases and an estimate based on an assumption of no change in efficiency for building shells and equipment.

State Renewable Energy Requirements and Goals: Update through 2008 (Update) (released in AEO2009)

Released: May 11, 2010

State renewable portfolio standards (RPS) programs continue to play an important role in Annual Energy Outlook 2009, growing in number while existing programs are modified with more stringent targets. In total, 28 states and the District of Columbia now have mandatory RPS programs, and at least 4 other states have voluntary renewable energy programs. In the absence of a federal renewable electricity standard, each state determines its own levels of generation, eligible technologies, and noncompliance penalties. The growth in state renewable energy requirements has led to an expansion of renewable energy credit (REC) markets, which vary from state to state. Credit prices depend on the state renewable requirements and how easily they can be met.

Updated State Air Emissions Regulations (released in AEO2010)

Released: May 11, 2010

The Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) is a program that includes 10 Northeast states that have agreed to curtail and reverse growth in their carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. The RGGI program includes all electricity generating units with a capacity of at least 25 megawatts and requires an allowance for each ton of CO2 emitted. The first year of mandatory compliance was in 2009.

Factors Affecting the Relationship between Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices (released in AEO2010)

Released: May 11, 2010

Over the 1995-2005 period, crude oil prices and U.S. natural gas prices tended to move together, which supported the conclusion that the markets for the two commodities were connected. Figure 26 illustrates the fairly stable ratio over that period between the price of low-sulfur light crude oil at Cushing, Oklahoma, and the price of natural gas at the Henry Hub on an energy-equivalent basis.

Importance of Low Permeability Natural Gas Reservoirs (released in AEO2010)

Released: May 11, 2010

Production from low-permeability reservoirs, including shale gas and tight gas, has become a major source of domestic natural gas supply. In 2008, low-permeability reservoirs accounted for about 40% of natural gas production and about 35% of natural gas consumption in the United States. Permeability is a measure of the rate at which liquids and gases can move through rock. Low-permeability natural gas reservoirs encompass the shale, sandstone, and carbonate formations whose natural permeability is roughly 0.1 millidarcies or below. (Permeability is measured in darcies.)

New EPA Guidelines for Review of Surface Coal Mining Operations in Appalachia (released in AEO2010)

Released: May 11, 2010

On April 1, 2010, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) issued a set of new guidelines to several of its Regional offices regarding the compliance of surface coal mining operations in Appalachia with the provisions of the Clean Water Act (CWA), the National Environmental Policy Act, and the environmental justice Executive Order (E.O. 12898). The stated purpose of the guidance was to explain more fully the approach that the EPA will be following in permit reviews, and to provide additional assurance that its Regional offices use clear, consistent, and science-based standards in reviewing the permits. Although the new guidelines go into effect immediately, they will be subjected to review both by the public and by the EPA's Science Advisory Board, with a set of final guidelines to be issued no later than April 1, 2011.

U.S. Nuclear Power Plants: Continued Life or Replacement After 60? (released in AEO2010)

Released: May 11, 2010

Nuclear power plants generate approximately 20% of U.S. electricity, and the plants in operation today are often seen as attractive assets in the current environment of uncertainty about future fossil fuel prices, high construction costs for new power plants (particularly nuclear plants), and the potential enactment of greenhouse gas regulations. Existing nuclear power plants have low fuel costs and relatively high power output. However, there is uncertainty about how long they will be allowed to continue operating.

Energy Intensity Trends in AEO2010 (released in AEO2010)

Released: May 11, 2010

Energy intensity (energy consumption per dollar of real GDP) indicates how much energy a country uses to produce its goods and services. From the early 1950s to the early 1970s, U.S. total primary energy consumption and real GDP increased at nearly the same annual rate. During that period, real oil prices remained virtually flat. In contrast, from the mid-1970s to 2008, the relationship between energy consumption and real GDP growth changed, with primary energy consumption growing at less than one-third the previous average rate and real GDP growth continuing to grow at its historical rate. The decoupling of real GDP growth from energy consumption growth led to a decline in energy intensity that averaged 2.8% per year from 1973 to 2008. In the Annual Energy Outlook 2010 Reference case, energy intensity continues to decline, at an average annual rate of 1.9% from 2008 to 2035.

Clean Air Interstate Rule: Changes and Modeling in AEO2010 (released in AEO2010)

Released: May 11, 2010

On December 23, 2008, the D.C. Circuit Court remanded but did not vacate the Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR), overriding its previous decision on February 8, 2008, to remand and vacate CAIR. The December decision, which is reflected in Annual Energy Outlook 2010 (AEO) , allows CAIR to remain in effect, providing time for the Environmental Protection Agency to modify the rule in order to address objections raised by the Court in its earlier decision. A similar rule, referred to as the Clean Air Mercury Rule (CAMR), which was to set up a cap-and-trade system for reducing mercury emissions by approximately 70%, is not represented in the AEO2010 projections, because it was vacated by the D.C. Circuit Court in February 2008.

Accounting for Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Biomass Energy Combustion (released in AEO2010)

Released: May 11, 2010

Carbon Dioxide (CO2) emissions from the combustion of biomass to produce energy are excluded from the energy-related CO2 emissions reported in Annual Energy Outlook 2010. According to current international convention, carbon released through biomass combustion is excluded from reported energy-related emissions. The release of carbon from biomass combustion is assumed to be balanced by the uptake of carbon when the feedstock is grown, resulting in zero net emissions over some period of time]. However, analysts have debated whether increased use of biomass energy may result in a decline in terrestrial carbon stocks, leading to a net positive release of carbon rather than the zero net release assumed by its exclusion from reported energy-related emissions.

World Oil Prices and Production Trends in AEO2010 (released in AEO2010)

Released: May 11, 2010

In Annual Energy Outlook 2010, the price of light, low-sulfur (or "sweet") crude oil delivered at Cushing, Oklahoma, is tracked to represent movements in world oil prices. The Energy Information Administration makes projections of future supply and demand for "total liquids,"" which includes conventional petroleum liquids -- such as conventional crude oil, natural gas plant liquids, and refinery gain -- in addition to unconventional liquids, which include biofuels, bitumen, coal-to-liquids (CTL), gas-to-liquids (GTL), extra-heavy oils, and shale oil.

State Renewable Energy Requirements and Goals: Update through 2009 (Update) (released in AEO2010)

Released: May 11, 2010

To the extent possible,Annual Energy Outlook 2010 (AEO) incorporates the impacts of state laws requiring the addition of renewable generation or capacity by utilities doing business in the states. Currently, 30 states and the District of Columbia have enforceable renewable portfolio standards (RPS) or similar laws). Under such standards, each state determines its own levels of generation, eligible technologies, and noncompliance penalties. AEO2010 includes the impacts of all laws in effect as of September 2009 (with the exception of Hawaii, because the National Energy Modeling System provides electricity market projections for the continental United States only).

CAFE Standards (released in AEO2010)

Released: May 11, 2010

Pursuant to the Presidents announcement of a National Fuel Efficiency Policy, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) and the EPA have promulgated nationally coordinated standards for tailpipe Carbon Dioxide (CO2)-equivalent emissions and fuel economy for light-duty vehicles (LDVs), which includes both passenger cars and light-duty trucks. In the joint rulemaking, the Environmental Protection Agency is enacting CO2-equivalent emissions standards under the Clean Air Act (CAA), and NHTSA is enacting companion Corporate Average Fuel Economy standards under the Energy Policy and Conservation Act, as amended by the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007.

Probabilities of Possible Future Prices (Released in the STEO April 2010)

Released: April 1, 2010

The Energy Information Administration introduced a monthly analysis of energy price volatility and forecast uncertainty in the October 2009 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Included in the analysis were charts portraying confidence intervals around the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) futures prices of West Texas Intermediate (equivalent to light sweet crude oil) and Henry Hub natural gas contracts.

 
Outlook for Non-OPEC Oil Supply in 2010-2011 (Released in the STEO January 2010)

Released: January 2, 2010

Two large categories define the world's producing countries of crude oil and other liquid fuels (hereafter liquids): those that are members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and those that are outside that group (non-OPEC). This article takes a closer look at the latter category.

 
Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty (Released in the STEO October 2009)

Released: October 6, 2009

The Energy Information Administration measures price uncertainty in oil and natural gas markets.

 
Understanding the Decline in Carbon Dioxide Emissions in 2009 (Released in the STEO October 2009)

Released: October 6, 2009

The Energy Information Administration forecasts 5.9% decline in U.S. carbon dioxide emissions in 2009.

 
NEMS - National Energy Modeling System: An Overview

Released: October 1, 2009

The National Energy Modeling System: An Overview 2009 a summary description of NEMS and each of its components. NEMS is a computer-based, energy-economy modeling system of energy markets for the midterm period through 2030. The NEMS is used to produce the Annual Energy Outlook.

 
Short-Term Energy Carbon Dioxide Emissions Forecasts August 2009

Released: August 11, 2009

Supplement to the Short-Term Energy Outlook. Short-term projections for U.S. carbon dioxide emissions of the three fossil fuels: coal, natural gas, and petroleum.

 
Energy Market and Economic Impacts of H.R. 2454, the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009

Released: August 4, 2009

This report responds to a request from Chairman Henry Waxman and Chairman Edward Markey for an analysis of H.R. 2454, the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009 (ACESA). ACESA, as passed by the House of Representatives on June 26, 2009, is a complex bill that regulates emissions of greenhouse gases through market-based mechanisms, efficiency programs, and economic incentives.

 
2009 Outlook for Hurricane Production Outages in the Gulf of Mexico, The (Released in the STEO June 2009)

Released: June 1, 2009

Projected impacts to Gulf of Mexico crude oil and natural gas production for the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season.

 
Implications of Lower Natural Gas Prices for Electric Generators in the Southeast, The

Released: May 12, 2009

This supplement to the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) May 2009 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) focuses on changes in the utilization of coal- and natural-gas-fired generation capacity in the electric utility sector as the differential between delivered fuel prices narrows.

 
Impacts of a 25% Renewable Electricity Standard as Proposed in the American Clean Energy and Security Act Discussion Draft

Released: April 27, 2009

This report responds to requests from Chairman Edward Markey, for an analysis of a 25% federal renewable electricity standard (RES). The RES proposal analyzed in this report is included in the discussion draft of broader legislation, the American Clean Energy and Security Act (ACESA) of 2009, issued on the Energy and Commerce Committee website at the end of March 2009.

 
An Updated Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case Reflecting Provisions of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act and Recent Changes in the Economic Outlook

Released: April 21, 2009

This report updates the Reference Case presented in the Annual Energy Outlook 2009 based on recently enacted legislation and the changing macroeconomic environment.

 
Biodiesel Supply and Consumption in the Short-Term Energy Outlook

Released: April 1, 2009

The historical biodiesel consumption data published in the Energy Information Administration's Monthly Energy Review March 2009 edition were revised to account for imports and exports. Table 10.4 of the Monthly Energy Review was expanded to display biodiesel imports, exports, stocks, stock change, and consumption. Similar revisions were made in the April 2009 edition of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO).

 
Economics of Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles (released in AEO2009)

Released: March 31, 2009

Plug-In hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) have gained significant attention in recent years, as concerns about energy, environmental, and economic securityincluding rising gasoline prices have prompted efforts to improve vehicle fuel economy and reduce petroleum consumption in the transportation sector. PHEVs are particularly well suited to meet these objectives, because they have the potential to reduce petroleum consumption both through fuel economy gains and by substituting electric power for gasoline use.

Impact of Limitations on Access to Oil and Natural Gas Resources in the Federal Outer Continental Shelf (released in AEO2009)

Released: March 31, 2009

The U.S. offshore is estimated to contain substantial resources of both crude oil and natural gas, but until recently some of the areas of the lower 48 states Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) have been under leasing moratoria. The Presidential ban on offshore drilling in portions of the lower 48 OCS was lifted in July 2008, and the Congressional ban was allowed to expire in September 2008, removing regulatory obstacles to development of the Atlantic and Pacific OCS.

Expectations for Oil Shale Production (released in AEO2009)

Released: March 31, 2009

Oil shales are fine-grained sedimentary rocks that contain relatively large amounts of kerogen, which can be converted into liquid and gaseous hydrocarbons (petroleum liquids, natural gas liquids, and methane) by heating the rock, usually in the absence of oxygen, to 650 to 700 degrees Fahrenheit (in situ retorting) or 900 to 950 degrees Fahrenheit (surface retorting). (Oil shale is, strictly speaking, a misnomer in that the rock is not necessarily a shale and contains no crude oil.) The richest U.S. oil shale deposits are located in Northwest Colorado, Northeast Utah, and Southwest Wyoming. Currently, those deposits are the focus of petroleum industry research and potential future production. Among the three states, the richest oil shale deposits are on federal lands in northwest Colorado.

Bringing Alaska North Slope Natural Gas to Market (released in AEO2009)

Released: March 31, 2009

At least three alternatives have been proposed over the years for bringing sizable volumes of natural gas from Alaska's remote North Slope to market in the lower 48 states: a pipeline interconnecting with the existing pipeline system in central Alberta, Canada; a gas-to-liquids (GTL) plant on the North Slope; and a large liquefied natural gas (LNG) export facility at Valdez, Alaska. The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) explicitly models the pipeline and GTL options. The what if LNG option is not modeled in NEMS.

Natural Gas and Crude Oil Prices in AEO (released in AEO2009)

Released: March 31, 2009

If oil and natural gas were perfect substitutes in all markets where they are used, market forces would be expected to drive their delivered prices to near equality on an energy-equivalent basis. The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil generally is denominated in terms of barrels, where 1 barrel has an energy content of approximately 5.8 million Btu. The price of natural gas (at the Henry Hub), in contrast, generally is denominated in million Btu. Thus, if the market prices of the two fuels were equal on the basis of their energy contents, the ratio of the crude oil price (the spot price for WTI, or low-sulfur light, crude oil) to the natural gas price (the Henry Hub spot price) would be approximately 6.0. From 1990 through 2007, however, the ratio of natural gas prices to crude oil prices averaged 8.6; and in the Annual Energy Outlook 2009 projections from 2008 through 2030, it averages 7.7 in the low oil price case, 14.6 in the reference case, and 20.2 in the high oil price case.

California's Move Toward E10 (released in AEO2009)

Released: March 31, 2009

In Annual Energy Outlook 2009, (AEO) E10–a gasoline blend containing 10% ethanol–is assumed to be the maximum ethanol blend allowed in California erformulated gasoline (RFG), as opposed to the 5.7% blend assumed in earlier AEOs. The 5.7% blend had reflected decisions made when California decided to phase out use of the additive methyl tertiary butyl ether in its RFG program in 2003, opting instead to use ethanol in the minimum amount that would meet the requirement for 2.0% oxygen content under the Clean Air Act provisions in effect at that time.

World Oil Prices and Production Trends in AEO2009 (released in AEO2009)

Released: March 31, 2009

The oil prices reported in Annual Energy Outlook 2009 (AEO) represent the price of light, low-sulfur crude oil in 2007 dollars. Projections of future supply and demand are made for "liquids," a term used to refer to those liquids that after processing and refining can be used interchangeably with petroleum products. In AEO2009, liquids include conventional petroleum liquids -- such as conventional crude oil and natural gas plant liquids -- in addition to unconventional liquids, such as biofuels, bitumen, coal-to-liquids (CTL), gas-to-liquids (GTL), extra-heavy oils, and shale oil.

Electricity Plant Cost Uncertainties (released in AEO2009)

Released: March 31, 2009

Construction costs for new power plants have increased at an extraordinary rate over the past several years. One study, published in mid-2008, reported that construction costs had more than doubled since 2000, with most of the increase occurring since 2005. Construction costs have increased for plants of all types, including coal, nuclear, natural gas, and wind.

Clean Air Interstate Rule (released in AEO2009)

Released: March 31, 2009

Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR) is a cap-and-trade program promulgated by the Environmental Protection Agency in 2005, covering 28 eastern U.S. states and the District of Columbia. It was designed to reduce sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions in order to help states meet their National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) for ozone and particulate matter (PM2.5) and to further emissions reductions already achieved through the Acid Rain Program and the NOx State Implementation Plan call program. The rule was set to commence in 2009 for seasonal and annual NOx emissions and in 2010 for SO2 emissions.

Clean Air Mercury Rule (released in AEO2009)

Released: March 31, 2009

On February 8, 2008, a three-judge panel on the D.C. Circuit of the U.S. Court of Appeals issued a decision to vacate the Clean Air Mercury Rule (CAMR). In its ruling, the panel cited the history of hazardous air pollutant regulation under Section 112 of the Clean Air Act (CAA). Section 112, as written by Congress, listed emitted mercury as a hazardous air pollutant that must be subject to regulation unless it can be proved harmless to public welfare and the environment. In 2000, the Environmental Protection Agency ruled that mercury was indeed hazardous and must be regulated under Section 112 and, therefore, subjected to the best available control technology for mitigation.

New NHTSA CAFE Standards (released in AEO2009)

Released: March 31, 2009

EISA2007 requires the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) to raise the Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards for passenger cars and light trucks to ensure that the average tested fuel economy of the combined fleet of all new passenger cars and light trucks sold in the United States in model year (MY) 2020 equals or exceeds 35 mpg, 34% above the current fleet average of 26.4 mpg. Pursuant to this legislation, NHTSA recently proposed revised CAFE standards that substantially increase the minimum fuel economy requirements for passenger cars and light trucks for MY 2011 through MY 2015.

Federal Fuels Taxes and Tax Credits (released in AEO2009)

Released: March 31, 2009

Provides a review and update of the handling of federal fuels taxes and tax credits, focusing primarily on areas for which regulations have changed or the handling of taxes or credits has been updated in Annual Energy Outlook 2009.

Energy Improvement and Extension Act of 2008: Summary of Provisions (released in AEO2009)

Released: March 31, 2009

The Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 (Public Law 110-343), which was signed into law on October 3, 2008, incorporates EIEA2008 in Division B. Provisions in EIEA2008 that require funding appropriations to be implemented, whose impact is highly uncertain or that require further specification by federal agencies or Congress, are not included in Annual Energy Outlook 2009.

Tax Credits and Renewable Generation (released in AEO2009)

Released: March 31, 2009

Tax incentives have been an important factor in the growth of renewable generation over the past decade, and they could continue to be important in the future. The Energy Tax Act of 1978 (Public Law 95-618) established ITCs for wind, and EPACT92 established the Renewable Electricity Production Credit (more commonly called the PTC) as an incentive to promote certain kinds of renewable generation beyond wind on the basis of production levels. Specifically, the PTC provided an inflation-adjusted tax credit of 1.5 cents per kilowatthour for generation sold from qualifying facilities during the first 10 years of operation. The credit was available initially to wind plants and facilities that used closed-loop biomass fuels and were placed in service after passage of the Act and before June 1999.

Loan Guarantee Program Established in EPACT2005 (released in AEO2009)

Released: March 31, 2009

Title XVII of EPACT2005 [20] authorized the Department of Energy (DOE) to issue loan guarantees to new or improved technology projects that avoid, reduce, or sequester greenhouse gases. In 2006, DOE issued its first solicitation for $4 billion in loan guarantees for non-nuclear technologies. The issue of the size of the program was addressed subsequently in the Consolidated Appropriation Act of 2008 (the FY08 Appropriations Act) passed in December 2008, which limited future solicitations to $38.5 billion and stated that authority to make the guarantees would end on September 30, 2009. The legislation also allocated the $38.5 billion cap as follows: $18.5 billion for nuclear plants; $6 billion for CCS technologies; $2 billion for advanced coal gasification units; $2 billion for advanced nuclear facilities for the front end of the nuclear fuel cycle; and $10 billion for renewable, conservation, distributed energy, and transmission/ distribution technologies. DOE also was required to submit all future solicitations to both the House and Senate Appropriations Committees for approval.

State Appliance Standards (released in AEO2009)

Released: March 31, 2009

State appliance standards have existed for decades, starting with Californias enforcement of minimum efficiency requirements for refrigerators and several other products in 1979. In 1987, recognizing that different efficiency standards for the same products in different states could create problems for manufacturers, Congress enacted the National Appliance Energy Conservation Act (NAECA), which initially covered 12 products. The Energy Policy Act of 1992 (EPACT92), EPACT2005, and EISA2007 added additional residential and commercial products to the 12 products originally specified under NAECA.

Updated State Air Emissions Regulations (released in AEO2009)

Released: March 31, 2009

Regional greenhouse gas initiative and western climate initiative descriptions.

Greenhouse Gas Concerns and Power Sector Planning (released in AEO2009)

Released: March 13, 2009

Concerns about potential climate change driven by rising atmospheric concentrations of Greenhouse Gases (GHG) have grown over the past two decades, both domestically and abroad. In the United States, potential policies to limit or reduce GHG emissions are in various stages of development at the state, regional, and federal levels. In addition to ongoing uncertainty with respect to future growth in energy demand and the costs of fuel, labor, and new plant construction, U.S. electric power companies must consider the effects of potential policy changes to limit or reduce GHG emissions that would significantly alter their planning and operating decisions. The possibility of such changes may already be affecting planning decisions for new generating capacity.

Regulations Related to the Outer Continental Shelf Moratoria and Implications of Not Renewing the Moratoria (released in AEO2009)

Released: March 13, 2009

From 1982 through 2008, Congress annually enacted appropriations riders prohibiting the Minerals Management Service (MMS) of the U.S. Department of the Interior from conducting activities related to leasing, exploration, and production of oil and natural gas on much of the federal Outer Continental Shelf (OCS). Further, a separate executive ban (originally put in place in 1990 by President George H.W. Bush and later extended by President William J. Clinton through 2012) also prohibited leasing on the OCS, with the exception of the Western Gulf of Mexico, portions of the Central and Eastern Gulf of Mexico, and Alaska. In combination, those actions prohibited drilling along the Atlantic and Pacific coasts, in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and in portions of the central Gulf of Mexico. The Gulf of Mexico Energy Security Act of 2006 (Public Law 109-432) imposed yet a third ban on drilling through 2022 on tracts in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico that are within 125 miles of Florida, east of a dividing line known as the Military Mission Line, and in the Central Gulf of Mexico within 100 miles of Florida.

Light-Duty Diesel Vehicles: Market Issues and Potential Energy and Emissions Impacts

Released: February 1, 2009

This report responds to a request from Senator Jeff Sessions for an analysis of the environmental and energy efficiency attributes of light-duty diesel vehicles. Specifically, the inquiry asked for a comparison of the characteristics of diesel-fueled vehicles with those of similar gasoline-fueled, E85-fueled, and hybrid vehicles, as well as a discussion of any technical, economic, regulatory, or other obstacles to increasing the use of diesel-fueled vehicles in the United States.

 
Trends in Heating and Cooling Degree Days: Implications for Energy Demand Issues (released in AEO2008)

Released: September 24, 2008

Weather-related energy use, in the form of heating, cooling, and ventilation, accounted for more than 40% of all delivered energy use in residential and commercial buildings in 2006. Given the relatively large amount of energy affected by ambient temperature in the buildings sector, the Energy Information Administration has reevaluated what it considers normal weather for purposes of projecting future energy use for heating, cooling, and ventilation. The Annual Energy Outlook 2008, estimates of normal heating and cooling degree-days are based on the population-weighted average for the 10-year period from 1997 through 2006.

Distributed Generation in Buildings (released in AEO2005)

Released: September 24, 2008

Currently, distributed generation provides a very small share of residential and commercial electricity requirements in the United States. The Annual Energy Outlook 2005 reference case projects a significant increase in electricity generation in the buildings sector, but distributed generation is expected to remain a small contributor to the sectors energy needs. Although the advent of higher energy prices or more rapid improvement in technology could increase the use of distributed generation relative to the reference case projection, the vast majority of electricity used in buildings is projected to continue to be purchased from the grid.

Impacts of Uncertainty in Energy Project Costs (released in AEO2008)

Released: September 24, 2008

From the late 1970s through 2002, steel, cement, and concrete prices followed a general downward trend. Since then, however, iron and steel prices have increased by 8% in 2003, 10% in 2004, and 31% in 2005. Although iron and steel prices declined in 2006, early data for 2007 show another increase. Cement and concrete prices, as well as the composite cost index for all construction commodities, have shown similar trends but with smaller increases in 2004 and 2005.

Impact of Increased Use of Hydrogen on Petroleum Consumption and Carbon Dioxide Emissions, The

Released: September 12, 2008

This report responds to a request from Senator Byron L. Dorgan for an analysis of the impacts on U.S. energy import dependence and emission reductions resulting from the commercialization of advanced hydrogen and fuel cell technologies in the transportation and distributed generation markets.

 
EPACT2005 Loan Guarantee Program (released in AEO2008)

Released: June 26, 2008

Title XVII of the Energy Policy Act 2005 (EPACT) authorized the Department of Energy (DOE) to issue loan guarantees for projects involving new or improved technologies to avoid, reduce, or sequester greenhouse gases (GHGs). The law specified that the amount of the guarantee would be up to 80% of a project's cost. EPACT2005 also specified that DOE must receive funds equal to the subsidy cost either through the federal appropriations process or from the firm receiving the guarantee. As discussed in Annual Energy Outlook 2007, this program, by lowering borrowing costs, can have a major impact on the economics of capital-intensive technologies.

Federal Fuels Taxes and Tax Credits (Update) (released in AEO2008)

Released: June 26, 2008

The Annual Energy Outlook 2008 (AEO) reference case incorporates current regulations that pertain to the energy industry. This section describes the handling of federal taxes and tax credits in AEO2008, focusing primarily on areas where regulations have changed or the handling of taxes or tax credits has been updated.

World Oil Prices and Production Trends in AEO2008 (released in AEO2008)

Released: June 26, 2008

Annual Energy Outlook 2008 (AEO) defines the world oil price as the price of light, low-sulfur crude oil delivered in Cushing, Oklahoma. Since 2003, both "above ground" and "below ground" factors have contributed to a sustained rise in nominal world oil prices, from $31 per barrel in 2003 to $69 per barrel in 2007. The AEO2008 reference case outlook for world oil prices is higher than in the AEO2007 reference case. The main reasons for the adoption of a higher reference case price outlook include continued significant expansion of world demand for liquids, particularly in non-OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) countries, which include China and India; the rising costs of conventional non-OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) supply and unconventional liquids production; limited growth in non-OPEC supplies despite higher oil prices; and the inability or unwillingness of OPEC member countries to increase conventional crude oil production to levels that would be required for maintaining price stability. The Energy Information Administration will continue to monitor world oil price trends and may need to make further adjustments in future AEOs.

Mobile Source Air Toxics Rule (released in AEO2008)

Released: June 26, 2008

On February 9, 2007, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) released its MSAT2 rule, which will establish controls on gasoline, passenger vehicles, and portable fuel containers. The controls are designed to reduce emissions of benzene and other hazardous air pollutants. Benzene is a known carcinogen, and the EPA estimates that mobile sources produced more than 70% of all benzene emissions in 1999. Other mobile source air toxics, including 1,3-butadiene, formaldehyde, acetaldehyde, acrolein, and naphthalene, also are thought to increase cancer rates or contribute to other serious health problems.

Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007: Summary of Provisions (released in AEO2008)

Released: June 26, 2008

The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 was signed into law on December 19, 2007, and became Public Law 110-140. Provisions in EISA2007 that require funding appropriations to be implemented, whose impact is highly uncertain, or that require further specification by federal agencies or Congress are not included in Annual Energy Outlook 2008 (AEO). For example, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) does not try to anticipate policy responses to the many studies required by EISA2007, nor to predict the impact of research and development (R&D) funding authorizations included in the bill. Moreover, AEO2008 does not include any provision that addresses a level of detail beyond that modeled in the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS), which was used to develop the AEO2008 projections. AEO2008 addresses only those provisions in EISA2007 that establish specific tax credits, incentives, or standards.

State Renewable Energy Requirements and Goals: Update Through 2007 (Update) (released in AEO2008)

Released: June 26, 2008

In recent years, the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) has tracked the growing number of states that have adopted requirements or goals for renewable energy. While there is no federal renewable generation mandate, the states have been adopting such standards for some time. AEO2005 provided a summary of all existing programs in effect at that time, and subsequent AEOs have examined new policies or changes to existing ones. Since the publication of AEO2007, four states have enacted new renewable portfolio standards (RPS) legislation, and five others have strengthened their existing RPS programs. In total, 25 states and the District of Columbia.

State Regulations on Airborne Emissions: Update Through 2007 (Update) (released in AEO2008)

Released: June 26, 2008

States are moving forward with implementation plans for the Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR). The program, promulgated by the EPA in March 2005, is a cap-and-trade system designed to reduce emissions of SO2 and NOx. States originally had until March 2007 to submit implementation plans, but the deadline has been extended by another year. CAIR covers 28 eastern states and the District of Columbia. States have the option to participate in the cap-and trade plan or devise their own plans, which can be more stringent than the federal requirements. To date, no state has indicated an intent to form NOx and SO2 programs with emissions limits stricter than those in CAIR, and it is expected that all states will participate in the Environmental Protection Agency administered cap-and-trade program. CAIR remains on schedule for implementation, and Annual Energy Outlook 2008 includes CAIR by assuming that all required states will meet only the federal requirement and will trade credits.

Liquefied Natural Gas: Global Challenges (released in AEO2008)

Released: June 26, 2008

U.S. imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in 2007 were more than triple the 2000 total, and they are expected to grow in the long term as North Americas conventional natural gas production declines. With U.S. dependence on LNG imports increasing, competitive forces in the international markets for natural gas in general and LNG in particular will play a larger role in shaping the U.S. market for LNG. Key factors currently shaping the future of the global LNG market include the evolution of project economics, worldwide demand for natural gas, government policies that affect the development and use of natural resources in countries with LNG facilities, and changes in seasonal patterns of LNG trade.

Limited Electricity Generation Supply and Limited Natural Gas Supply Cases (released in AEO2008)

Released: June 26, 2008

Development of U.S. energy resources and the permitting and construction of large energy facilities have become increasingly difficult over the past 20 years, and they could become even more difficult in the future. Growing public concern about global warming and CO2 emissions also casts doubt on future consumption of fossil fuels -- particularly coal, which releases the largest amount of CO2 per unit of energy produced. Even without regulations to limit greenhouse gas emissions in the United States, the investment community may already be limiting the future use of some energy options. In addition, there is considerable uncertainty about the future availability of, and access to, both domestic and foreign natural gas resources.

2008 Outlook for Hurricane Production Outages in the Gulf of Mexico - Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement

Released: June 10, 2008

The Energy Information Administration estimates of expected production shut-ins of crude oil and natural gas in the U.S. Gulf Coast during the upcoming hurricane season (June through November).

 
Analysis of Crude Oil Production in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge

Released: May 22, 2008

This report responds to a request from Senator Ted Stevens that the Energy Information Administration provide an assessment of federal oil and natural gas leasing in the coastal plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) in Alaska.

 
Energy Market and Economic Impacts of S.2191, the Lieberman-Warner Climate Security Act of 2007

Released: April 30, 2008

This report responds to a request from Senators Lieberman and Warner for an analysis of S.2191, the Lieberman-Warner Climate Security Act of 2007. S.2191 is a complex bill regulating emissions of greenhouse gases through market- based mechanisms, energy efficiency programs, and economic incentives.

 
Motor Gasoline Consumption 2008 - Historical Perspective and Short-Term Projections

Released: April 8, 2008

This report reviews how gasoline markets relate to population, income, prices, and the growing role of ethanol. It also analyzes the structural shift in motor gasoline markets that took place in the late 1990s.

 
Motor Gasoline Market Spring 2007 and Implications for Spring 2008

Released: April 8, 2008

This report focuses on the major factors that drove the widening difference between wholesale gasoline and crude oil prices in 2007 and explores how those factors might impact gasoline prices in 2008.

 
Federal Financial Interventions and Subsidies in Energy Markets 2007

Released: April 1, 2008

This report responds to a request from Senator Lamar Alexander of Tennessee that the Energy Information Administration update its 1999 to 2000 work on federal energy subsidies, including any additions or deletions of federal subsidies based on Administration or Congressional action since 2000, and providing an estimate of the size of each current subsidy. Subsidies directed to electricity production are estimated on the basis of generation by fuel.

 
Outlook for Non-OPEC Oil Supply Growth in 2008-2009 (Released in the STEO February 2008)

Released: February 1, 2008

In 2008-2009, the Energy Information Administration expects that non-OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) petroleum supply growth will surpass that in recent years because of the large number of new oil projects scheduled to come online during the forecast period.

 
Energy Market and Economic Impacts of S.1766, the Low Carbon Economy Act of 2007

Released: January 10, 2008

This report responds to a request from Senators Bingaman and Specter for an analysis of a bill designed to cap greenhouse gas emissions at approximately 2006 levels in 2020, 1990 levels in 2030, and at least 60% below 1990 levels by 2050.

 
Oil and Natural Gas Market Supply and Renewable Portfolio Standard Impacts of Selected Provisions of H.R. 3221

Released: December 4, 2007

This paper responds to an October 31, 2007, request from Representatives Barton, McCrery, and Young.

 
Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement: Why Are Oil Prices So High?

Released: November 6, 2007

Feature article on the reasons for high oil prices.

 
Energy Market and Economic Impacts of S. 280, the ClimateStewardship and Innovation Act of 2007, Supplement to

Released: November 1, 2007

This paper responds to a September 18, 2007, letter from Senators Barrasso, Inhofe, and Voinovich, seeking further energy and economic analysis to supplement information presented in the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) recent analysis of S.280, the Climate Stewardship and Innovation Act of 2007.

 
Natural Gas in the Rocky Mountains: Developing Infrastructure

Released: September 20, 2007

This Supplement to the Energy Information Administration's Short-Term Energy Outlook analyzes current natural gas production, pipeline and storage infrastructure in the Rocky Mountains, as well as prospective pipeline projects in these states. The influence of these factors on regional prices and price volatility is examined.

 
Energy and Economic Impacts of Implementing Both a 25% RPS and a 25% RFS by 2025

Released: September 11, 2007

This report responds to a request by Senator James Inhofe for analysis of a "25-by-25" proposal that combines a requirement that a 25% share of electricity sales be produced from renewable sources by 2025 with a requirement that a 25% share of liquid transportation fuel sales also be derived from renewable sources by 2025.

 
Energy Market and Economic Impacts of S. 280, the Climate Stewardship and Innovation Act of 2007

Released: August 6, 2007

This report responds to a request from Senators Joseph Lieberman and John McCain for an estimate of the economic impacts of S.280, the Climate Stewardship and Innovation Act of 2007. S. 280 would establish a series of caps on greenhouse gas emissions starting in 2012 followed by increasingly stringent caps beginning in 2020, 2030 and 2050. The report provides estimates of the effects of S. 280 on energy markets and the economy through 2030.

 
2007 Outlook for Hurricane Impacts on Gulf of Mexico Crude Oil & Natural Gas Production, The

Released: June 13, 2007

Projected impacts to Gulf of Mexico crude oil and natural gas production for the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season.

 
Impacts of a 15% Renewable Portfolio Standard

Released: June 11, 2007

This analysis responds to a request from Senator Jeff Bingaman that the Energy Information Administration (EIA) analyze a renewable portfolio standard (RPS) requiring that 15% of U.S. electricity sales be derived from qualifying renewable energy resources.

 
Analysis of Alternative Extensions of the Existing Production Tax Credit for Wind Generator

Released: May 1, 2007

Requestor: Ms. Janice Mays, Chief Counsel, Committee on Ways & Means, U.S. House of Representatives This is a letter response requesting analysis of alternative extensions of the existing production tax credit (PTC) that would apply to wind generators only.

Refinery Outages: Description and Potential Impact on Petroleum Product Prices

Released: March 27, 2007

This report responds to a July 13, 2006 request from Chairman Jeff Bingaman of the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources requested that the Energy Information Administration conduct a study of the impact that refinery shutdowns have had on the price of oil and gasoline.

 
Loan Guarantees and the Economics of Electricity Generating Technologies (released in AEO2007)

Released: March 11, 2007

The loan guarantee program authorized in Title XVII of EPACT2005 is not included in the Annual Energy Outlook 2007, because the Federal Credit Reform Act of 1990 requires congressional authorization of loan guarantees in an appropriations act before a federal agency can make a binding loan guarantee agreement. As of October 2006, Congress had not provided the legislation necessary for the Department of Energy (DOE) to implement the loan guarantee program (see Legislation and Regulations). In August 2006, however, DOE invited firms to submit pre-applications for the first $2 billion in potential loan guarantees.

Electricity Prices in Transition (released in AEO2007)

Released: March 11, 2007

The push by some states to restructure electricity markets progressed rapidly throughout the late 1990s. Although the energy crisis in California during 2000 and 2001 slowed the momentum, 19 states and the District of Columbia currently have some form of restructuring in place. In addition, Washington State, which has not restructured its electricity market, allows its largest industrial customers to choose their suppliers.

Industrial Sector Energy Demand: Revisions for Non-Energy-Intensive Manufacturing (released in AEO2007)

Released: March 11, 2007

For the industrial sector, the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) analysis and projection efforts generally have focused on the energy-intensive industriesfood, bulk chemicals, refining, glass, cement, steel, and aluminumwhere energy cost averages 4.8% of annual operating cost. Detailed process flows and energy intensity indicators have been developed for narrowly defined industry groups in the energy-intensive manufacturing sector. The non-energy-intensive manufacturing industries, where energy cost averages 1.9% of annual operating cost, previously have received somewhat less attention, however. In Annual Energy Outlook 2006 (AEO), energy demand projections were provided for two broadly aggregated industry groups in the non-energy-intensive manufacturing sector: metal-based durables and other non-energy-intensive. In the AEO2006 projections, the two groups accounted for more than 50% of the projected increase in industrial natural gas consumption from 2004 to 2030.

Energy Demand: Limits on the Response to Higher Energy Prices in the End-Use Sectors (released in AEO2007)

Released: March 11, 2007

Energy consumption in the end-use demand sectorsresidential, commercial, industrial, and transportationgenerally shows only limited change when energy prices increase. Several factors that limit the sensitivity of end-use energy demand to price signals are common across the end-use sectors. For example, because energy generally is consumed in long-lived capital equipment, short-run consumer responses to changes in energy prices are limited to reductions in the use of energy services or, in a few cases, fuel switching; and because energy services affect such critical lifestyle areas as personal comfort, medical services, and travel, end-use consumers often are willing to absorb price increases rather than cut back on energy use, especially when they are uncertain whether price increases will be long-lasting. Manufacturers, on the other hand, often are able to pass along higher energy costs, especially in cases where energy inputs are a relatively minor component of production costs. In economic terms, short-run energy demand typically is inelastic, and long-run energy demand is less inelastic or moderately elastic at best.

Miscellaneous Electricity Services in the Buildings Sector (released in AEO2007)

Released: March 11, 2007

Residential and commercial electricity consumption for miscellaneous services has grown significantly in recent years and currently accounts for more electricity use than any single major end-use service in either sector (including space heating, space cooling, water heating, and lighting). In the residential sector, a proliferation of consumer electronics and information technology equipment has driven much of the growth. In the commercial sector, telecommunications and network equipment and new advances in medical imaging have contributed to recent growth in miscellaneous electricity use.

Biofuels in the U.S. Transportation Sector (released in AEO2007)

Released: February 22, 2007

Sustained high world oil prices and the passage of the Energy Policy Act 2005 (EPACT) have encouraged the use of agriculture-based ethanol and biodiesel in the transportation sector; however, both the continued growth of the biofuels industry and the long-term market potential for biofuels depend on the resolution of critical issues that influence the supply of and demand for biofuels. For each of the major biofuelscorn-based ethanol, cellulosic ethanol, and biodieselresolution of technical, economic, and regulatory issues remains critical to further development of biofuels in the United States.

Fuel Economy Standards for New Light Trucks (released in AEO2007)

Released: February 22, 2007

In March 2006, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) finalized Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards requiring higher fuel economy performance for light-duty trucks in model year (MY) 2008 through 2011. Unlike the proposed CAFE standards discussed in Annual Energy Outlook 2006, which would have established minimum fuel economy requirements by six footprint size classes, the final reformed CAFE standards specify a continuous mathematical function that determines minimum fuel economy requirements by vehicle footprint, defined as the wheelbase (the distance from the front axle to the center of the rear axle) times the average track width (the distance between the center lines of the tires) of the vehicle in square feet.

World Oil Prices in AEO2007 (released in AEO2007)

Released: February 22, 2007

Over the long term, the Annual Energy Outlook 2007 (AEO) projection for world oil prices -- defined as the average price of imported low-sulfur, light crude oil to U.S. refiners -- is similar to the AEO2006 projection. In the near term, however, AEO2007 projects prices that are $8 to $10 higher than those in AEO2006.

Federal and State Ethanol and Biodiesel Requirements (released in AEO2007)

Released: February 22, 2007

The Energy Policy Act 2005 requires that the use of renewable motor fuels be increased from the 2004 level of just over 4 billion gallons to a minimum of 7.5 billion gallons in 2012, after which the requirement grows at a rate equal to the growth of the gasoline pool. The law does not require that every gallon of gasoline or diesel fuel be blended with renewable fuels. Refiners are free to use renewable fuels, such as ethanol and biodiesel, in geographic regions and fuel formulations that make the most sense, as long as they meet the overall standard. Conventional gasoline and diesel can be blended with renewables without any change to the petroleum components, although fuels used in areas with air quality problems are likely to require adjustment to the base gasoline or diesel fuel if they are to be blended with renewables.

Impacts of Rising Construction and Equipment Costs on Energy Industries (released in AEO2007)

Released: February 22, 2007

Costs related to the construction industry have been volatile in recent years. Some of the volatility may be related to higher energy prices. Prices for iron and steel, cement, and concrete -- commodities used heavily in the construction of new energy projects -- rose sharply from 2004 to 2006, and shortages have been reported. How such price fluctuations may affect the cost or pace of new development in the energy industries is not known with any certainty, and short-term changes in commodity prices are not accounted for in the 25-year projections in Annual Energy Outlook 2007. Most projects in the energy industries require long planning and construction lead times, which can lessen the impacts of short-term trends.

Coal Transportation Issues (released in AEO2007)

Released: February 22, 2007

Most of the coal delivered to U.S. consumers is transported by railroads, which accounted for 64% of total domestic coal shipments in 2004. Trucks transported approximately 12% of the coal consumed in the United States in 2004, mainly in short hauls from mines in the East to nearby coal-fired electricity and industrial plants. A number of minemouth power plants in the West also use trucks to haul coal from adjacent mining operations. Other significant modes of coal transportation in 2004 included conveyor belt and slurry pipeline (12%) and water transport on inland waterways, the Great Lakes, and tidewater areas (9%).

Regulation of Emissions from Stationary Diesel Engines (released in AEO2007)

Released: February 22, 2007

On July 11, 2006, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) issued regulations covering emissions from stationary diesel engines  New Source Performance Standards that limit emissions of NOx, particulate matter, SO2, carbon monoxide, and hydrocarbons to the same levels required for nonroad diesel engines. The regulation affects new, modified, and reconstructed diesel engines. Beginning with model year 2007, engine manufacturers must specify that new engines less than 3,000 horsepower meet the same emissions standard as nonroad diesel engines. For engines greater than 3,000 horsepower, the standard will be fully effective in 2011. Stationary diesel engine fuel will also be subject to the same standard as nonroad diesel engine fuel, which reduces the sulfur content of the fuel to 500 parts per million by mid-2007 and 15 parts per million by mid-2010.

Impacts of Increased Access to Oil & Natural Gas Resources in the Lower 48 Federal Outer Continental Shelf (released in AEO2007)

Released: February 22, 2007

This analysis was updated for Annual Energy Outlook 2009 (AEO): Impact of Limitations on Access to Oil and Natural Gas Resources in the Federal Outer Continental Shelf (OCS). The OCS is estimated to contain substantial resources of crude oil and natural gas; however, some areas of the OCS are subject to drilling restrictions. With energy prices rising over the past several years, there has been increased interest in the development of more domestic oil and natural gas supply, including OCS resources. In the past, federal efforts to encourage exploration and development activities in the deep waters of the OCS have been limited primarily to regulations that would reduce royalty payments by lease holders. More recently, the states of Alaska and Virginia have asked the federal government to consider leasing in areas off their coastlines that are off limits as a result of actions by the President or Congress. In response, the Minerals Management Service (MMS) of the U.S. Department of the Interior has included in its proposed 5-year leasing plan for 2007-2012 sales of one lease in the Mid-Atlantic area off the coastline of Virginia and two leases in the North Aleutian Basin area of Alaska. Development in both areas still would require lifting of the current ban on drilling.

Alaskan Natural Gas Pipeline Developments (released in AEO2007)

Released: February 22, 2007

The Annual Energy Outlook 2007 reference case projects that an Alaska natural gas pipeline will go into operation in 2018, based on the Energy Information Administration's current understanding of the projects time line and economics. There is continuing debate, however, about the physical configuration and the ownership of the pipeline. In addition, the issue of Alaskas oil and natural gas production taxes has been raised, in the context of a current market environment characterized by rising construction costs and falling natural gas prices. If rates of return on investment by producers are reduced to unacceptable levels, or if the project faces significant delays, other sources of natural gas, such as unconventional natural gas production and liquefied natural gas imports, could fulfill the demand that otherwise would be served by an Alaska pipeline.

State Regulations on Airborne Emissions: Update Through 2006 (Update) (released in AEO2007)

Released: February 22, 2007

In May 2005, the Environmental Protection Agency published two final rules aimed at reducing emissions from coal-fired power plants. The Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR) requires 28 states and the District of Columbia to reduce emissions of SO2 and/or NOx. The Clean Air Mercury Rule (CAMR) requires the states to reduce emissions of mercury from new and existing coal-fired plants.

EPACT2005: Status of Provisions (Update) (released in AEO2007)

Released: February 22, 2007

The Energy Policy Act 2005 (EPACT) was signed into law by President Bush on August 8, 2005, and became Public Law 109-058. A number of provisions from EPACT2005 were included in the Annual Energy Outlook 2006 (AEO) projections. Many others were not considered in AEO2006particularly, those that require funding appropriations or further specification by federal agencies or Congress before implementation.

Federal Fuels Taxes and Tax Credits (released in AEO2007)

Released: February 22, 2007

The Annual Energy Outlook 2007 (AEO) reference case and alternative cases generally assume compliance with current laws and regulations affecting the energy sector. Some provisions of the U.S. Tax Code are scheduled to expire, or may be subject to adjustment, before the end of the projection period. In general, scheduled expirations and adjustments provided in legislation or regulations are assumed to occur, unless there is significant historical evidence to support an alternative assumption. This section examines the AEO2007 treatment of three provisions that could have significant impacts on U.S. energy markets: the gasoline excise tax, biofuel (ethanol and biodiesel) tax credits, and the production tax credit for electricity generation from certain renewable resources.

State Renewable Energy Requirements and Goals: Update Through 2006 (Update) (released in AEO2007)

Released: February 22, 2007

Annual Energy Outlook 2006 provided a review of renewable energy programs that were in effect in 23 states at the end of 2005. Since then (as of September 1, 2006), no new state programs have been adopted; however, several states with renewable energy programs in place have made changes as they have gained experience and identified areas for improvement. Revisions made over the past year range from clarification or modification of program definitions, such as which resources qualify, to substantial increases in targets for renewable electricity generation or capacity. The following paragraphs provide an overview of substantive changes in the design or implementation of state renewable energy programs.

Energy Market Impacts of a Clean Energy Portfolio - Follow-up

Released: February 1, 2007

This analysis responds to a request from Senator Coleman that the Energy Information Administration (EIA) analyze a proposed clean energy portfolio standard (CEPS).

 
U.S. LNG Imports - The Next Wave

Released: January 11, 2007

U.S. LNG imports - The Next Wave, is now available as a special supplement to the January 2007 issue of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Although liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports still account for less than 3% of total U.S. natural gas supplies, the global market is growing and the Energy Information Administration (EIA) foresees another wave of U.S. LNG import growth over the next two years. The supplement focuses on recent trends in global and U.S. LNG trade, and presents factors expected to influence LNG imports through 2008. EIA expects year-over-year increases in LNG imports of 34.5% and 38.5% in 2007 and 2008, respectively.

 
Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement: U.S. LNG Imports - The Next Wave

Released: January 11, 2007

This report was prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), in response to a September 27, 2006, request from Senators Bingaman, Landrieu, Murkowski, Specter, Salazar, and Lugar. The Senators requested that EIA assess the impacts of a proposal that would regulate emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) through an allowance cap-and-trade system.

 
Energy Market and Economic Impacts Proposal to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Intensity with a Cap and Trade System

Released: January 11, 2007

This report was prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), in response to a September 27, 2006, request from Senators Bingaman, Landrieu, Murkowski, Specter, Salazar, and Lugar. The Senators requested that EIA assess the impacts of a proposal that would regulate emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) through an allowance cap-and-trade system. The program would set the cap to achieve a reduction in emissions relative to economic output, or greenhouse gas intensity.

 
Energy and Economic Impacts of H.R.5049, the Keep America Competitive Global Warming Policy

Released: September 5, 2006

This report responds to a May 2, 2006 request from Congressmen Tom Udall and Tom Petri asking the Energy Information Administration to analyze the impacts of their legislation implementing a market-based allowance program to cap greenhouse gas emissions at 2009 levels.

 
Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement: Why Are Oil Prices So High?

Released: August 6, 2006

Feature article on the reasons for high oil prices.

 
Summer 2006 Motor Gasoline Prices (Released in the STEO July 2006)

Released: July 1, 2006

This supplement to the July 2006 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) examines the various factors that have contributed to this summer's high gasoline prices and discusses how they may continue to impact markets over the next several months.

 
Energy Market Impacts of a Clean Energy Portfolio Standard

Released: June 30, 2006

This analysis responds to a request from Senator Norm Coleman that the Energy Information Administration (EIA) analyze a proposed clean energy resources policy.

 
Impact of Tropical Cyclones on Gulf of Mexico Crude Oil and Natural Gas Production, The

Released: June 7, 2006

This is a special analysis report on hurricanes and their effects on oil and natural gas production in the Gulf of Mexico region.

 
Reduced Form Energy Model Elasticities from EIA's Regional Short-Term Energy Model (RSTEM)

Released: May 9, 2006

This analysis examines the price and weather elasticities derived from EIA's Regional Short-term Energy Model (RSTEM).

 
Mercury Emissions Control Technologies (released in AEO2006)

Released: March 20, 2006

The Annual Energy Outlook 2006 reference case assumes that states will comply with the requirements of the Environmental Protection Agency's new Clean Air Mercury Rule (CAMR) regulation. CAMR is a two-phase program, with a Phase I cap of 38 tons of mercury emitted from all U.S. power plants in 2010 and a Phase II cap of 15 tons in 2018. Mercury emissions in the electricity generation sector in 2003 are estimated at around 50 tons. Generators have a variety of options to meet the mercury limits, such as: switching to coal with a lower mercury content, relying on flue gas desulfurization or selective catalytic reduction equipment to reduce mercury emissions, or installing conventional activated carbon injection (ACI) technology.

Energy Market Impacts of Alternative Greenhouse Gas Intensity Reduction Goals

Released: March 8, 2006

This report responds to a request from Senator Ken Salazar that the Energy Information Administration (EIA) analyze the impacts of implementing alternative variants of an emissions cap-and-trade program for greenhouse gases (GHGs).

 
Volumetric Excise Tax Credit for Alternative Fuels (released in AEO2006)

Released: February 1, 2006

On August 10, 2005, President Bush signed into law the Safe, Accountable, Flexible, and Efficient Transportation Equity Act: A Legacy for Users (SAFETEA-LU)]. The act includes authorization for a multitude of transportation infrastructure projects, establishes highway safety provisions, provides for research and development, and includes a large number of miscellaneous provisions related to transportation, most of which are not included in Annual Energy Outlook 2006 because their energy impacts are vague or undefined.

State Renewable Energy Requirements and Goals: Update Through 2005 (Update) (released in AEO2006)

Released: February 1, 2006

Annual Energy Outlook 2005 provided a summary of 17 state renewable energy programs in existence as of December 31, 2003, in 15 states.

State Restrictions on Methyl Tertiary Butyl Ether (released in AEO2006)

Released: February 1, 2006

By the end of 2005, 25 states had barred, or passed laws banning, any more than trace levels of methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) in their gasoline supplies, and legislation to ban MTBE was pending in 4 others. Some state laws address only MTBE; others also address ethers such as ethyl tertiary butyl ether (ETBE) and tertiary amyl methyl ether (TAME). Annual Energy Outlook 2006 assumes that all state MTBE bans prohibit the use of all ethers for gasoline blending.

State Air Emission Regulations That Affect Electric Power Producers (Update) (released in AEO2006)

Released: February 1, 2006

Several states have recently enacted air emission regulations that will affect the electricity generation sector. The regulations govern emissions of NOx, SO2, CO2, and mercury from power plants.

Changing Trends in the Refining Industry (released in AEO2006)

Released: February 1, 2006

There have been some major changes in the U.S. refining industry recently, prompted in part by a significant decline in the quality of imported crude oil and by increasing restrictions on the quality of finished products. As a result, high-quality crudes, such as the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude that serves as a benchmark for oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), have been trading at record premiums to the OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) Basket price.

Nonconventional Liquid Fuels (released in AEO2006)

Released: February 1, 2006

Higher prices for crude oil and refined petroleum products are opening the door for nonconventional liquids to displace petroleum in the traditional fuel supply mix. Growing world demand for diesel fuel is helping to jump-start the trend toward increasing production of nonconventional liquids, and technological advances are making the nonconventional alternatives more viable commercially. Those trends are reflected in the Annual Energy Outlook 2006 projections.

Energy Technologies on the Horizon (released in AEO2006)

Released: February 1, 2006

A key issue in mid-term forecasting is the representation of changing and developing technologies. How existing technologies will evolve, and what new technologies might emerge, cannot be known with certainty. The issue is of particular importance in Annual Energy Outlook 2006 (AEO), the first AEO with projections out to 2030.

World Oil Prices in AEO2006 (released in AEO2006)

Released: February 1, 2006

World oil prices in the Annual Energy Outlook 2006 (AEO) reference case are substantially higher than those in the AEO2005 reference case. In the AEO2006 reference case, world crude oil prices, in terms of the average price of imported low-sulfur, light crude oil to U.S. refiners, decline from current levels to about $47 per barrel (2004 dollars) in 2014, then rise to $54 per barrel in 2025 and $57 per barrel in 2030. The price in 2025 is approximately $21 per barrel higher than the corresponding price projection in the AEO2005 reference case.

Economic Effects of High Oil Prices (released in AEO2006)

Released: February 1, 2006

The Annual Energy Outlook 2006 projections of future energy market conditions reflect the effects of oil prices on the macroeconomic variables that affect oil demand, in particular, and energy demand in general. The variables include real gross domestic product (GDP) growth, inflation, employment, exports and imports, and interest rates.

California Greenhouse Gas Emissions Standards for Light-Duty Vehicles (Update) (released in AEO2006)

Released: February 1, 2006

The state of California was given authority under the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 (CAAA90) to set emissions standards for light-duty vehicles that exceed federal standards. In addition, other states that do not comply with the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) set by the Environmental Protection Agency under CAAA90 were given the option to adopt Californias light-duty vehicle emissions standards in order to achieve air quality compliance. CAAA90 specifically identifies hydrocarbon, carbon monoxide, and NOx as vehicle-related air pollutants that can be regulated. California has led the nation in developing stricter vehicle emissions standards, and other states have adopted the California standards.

Proposed Revisions to Light Truck Fuel Economy Standard (released in AEO2006)

Released: February 1, 2006

In August 2005, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) published proposed reforms to the structure of CAFE standards for light trucks and increases in light truck Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards for model years 2008 through 201. Under the proposed new structure, NHTSA would establish minimum fuel economy levels for six size categories defined by the vehicle footprint (wheelbase multiplied by track width), as summarized in Table 3. For model years 2008 through 2010, the new CAFE standards would provide manufacturers the option of complying with either the standards defined for each individual footprint category or a proposed average light truck fleet standard of 22.5 miles per gallon in 2008, 23.1 miles per gallon in 2009, and 23.5 miles per gallon in 2010. All light truck manufacturers would be required to meet an overall standard based on sales within each individual footprint category after model year 2010.

Advanced Technologies for Light-Duty Vehicles (released in AEO2006)

Released: February 1, 2006

A fundamental concern in projecting the future attributes of light-duty vehicles-passenger cars, sport utility vehicles, pickup trucks, and minivans-is how to represent technological change and the market forces that drive it. There is always considerable uncertainty about the evolution of existing technologies, what new technologies might emerge, and how consumer preferences might influence the direction of change. Most of the new and emerging technologies expected to affect the performance and fuel use of light-duty vehicles over the next 25 years are represented in the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS); however, the potential emergence of new, unforeseen technologies makes it impossible to address all the technology options that could come into play. The previous section of Issues in Focus discussed several potential technologies that currently are not represented in NEMS. This section discusses some of the key technologies represented in NEMS that are expected to be implemented in light-duty vehicles over the next 25 years.

U.S. Greenhouse Gas Intensity and the Global Climate Change Initiative (released in AEO2006)

Released: February 1, 2006

On February 14, 2002, President Bush announced the Administrations Global Climate Change Initiative. A key goal of the Climate Change Initiative is to reduce U.S. greenhouse gas (GHG) intensity-defined as the ratio of total U.S. GHG emissions to economic output-by 18% over the 2002 to 2012 time frame.

Update on Transition to Ultra-Low-Sulfur Diesel Fuel (released in AEO2006)

Released: February 1, 2006

On November 8, 2005, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Administrator signed a direct final rule that will shift the retail compliance date for offering ultra-low sulfur diesel (ULSD) for highway use from September 1, 2006, to October 15, 2006. The change will allow more time for retail outlets and terminals to comply with the new 15 parts per million (ppm) sulfur standard, providing time for entities in the diesel fuel distribution system to flush higher sulfur fuel out of the system during the transition. Terminals will have until September 1, 2006, to complete their transitions to ULSD. The previous deadline was July 15, 2006.

Federal Air Emissions Regulations (released in AEO2006)

Released: February 1, 2006

In 2005, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) finalized two regulations, the Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR) and the Clean Air Mercury Rule CAMR, that would reduce emissions from coal-fired power plants in the United States. Both CAIR and CAMR are included in the Annual Energy Outlook 2006 reference case. The EPA has received 11 petitions for reconsideration of CAIR and has provided an opportunity for public comment on reconsidering certain aspects of CAIR. Public comments were accepted until January 13, 2006. The EPA has also received 14 petitions for reconsideration of CAMR and is willing to reconsider certain aspects of the rule. Public comments were accepted for 45 days after publication of the reconsideration notice in the Federal Register. Several states and organizations have filed lawsuits against CAMR. The ultimate decision of the courts will have a significant impact on the implementation of CAMR.

Impact of Energy Policy Act of 2005 Section 206 Rebates on Consumers and Renewable Energy Consumption, With Projections to 2010

Released: February 1, 2006

The Energy Information Administration (EIA), with the agreement of the Department, interpreted section 206(d) as calling for a listing of the types of renewable fuels available today, and a listing of those that will be available in the future based on the incentives provided in section 206(d). This report provides that information, and also provides information concerning renewable energy equipment and renewable energy consumption.

 
Energy Policy Act 2005 Summary (released in AEO2006)

Released: February 1, 2006

The U.S. House of Representatives passed H.R. 6 EH, the Energy Policy Act of 2005, on April 21, 2005, and the Senate passed H.R. 6 EAS on June 28, 2005. A conference committee was convened to resolve differences between the two bills, and a report was approved and issued on July 27, 2005. The House approved the conference report on July 28, 2005, and the Senate followed on July 29, 2005. EPACT2005 was signed into law by President Bush on August 8, 2005, and became Public Law 109-058.

Renewable Fuels Legislation Impact Analysis

Released: July 1, 2005

An analysis based on an extension of the ethanol supply curve in our model to allow for enough ethanol production to meet the requirements of S. 650. This analysis provides an update of the May 23, 2005 analysis, with revised ethanol production and cost assumptions.

 
Impacts of Modeled Provisions of H.R. 6 EH: The Energy Policy Act of 2005

Released: July 1, 2005

This report responds to a May 2, 2005, request by Chairman Pete Domenici and Ranking Member Jeff Bingaman of the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources for an assessment of the energy supply, consumption, import, price, and macroeconomic impacts of H.R. 6 EH, the Energy Policy Act of 2005, as passed by the U.S. House of Representatives on April 21, 2005.

 
Assessment of Selected Energy Efficiency Policies

Released: June 1, 2005

This report responds to a request from Senator Byron L. Dorgan, asking the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to undertake a quantitative analysis of a variety of energy efficiency policies using assumptions provided by the Alliance to Save Energy (ASE).

 
Production Tax Credit for Renewable Electricity Generation (released in AEO2005)

Released: April 1, 2005

In the late 1970s and early 1980s, environmental and energy security concerns were addressed at the federal level by several key pieces of energy legislation. Among them, the Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act of 1978 (PURPA), P.L. 95-617, required regulated power utilities to purchase alternative electricity generation from qualified generating facilities, including small-scale renewable generators; and the Investment Tax Credit (ITC), P.L. 95-618, part of the Energy Tax Act of 1978, provided a 10% federal tax credit on new investment in capital-intensive wind and solar generation technologies.

Coal Transportation Rate Sensitivity Analysis

Released: April 1, 2005

On December 21, 2004, the Surface Transportation Board (STB) requested that the Energy Information Administration (EIA) analyze the impact of changes in coal transportation rates on projected levels of electric power sector energy use and emissions. Specifically, the STB requested an analysis of changes in national and regional coal consumption and emissions resulting from adjustments in railroad transportation rates for Wyoming's Powder River Basin (PRB) coal using the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). However, because NEMS operates at a relatively aggregate regional level and does not represent the costs of transporting coal over specific rail lines, this analysis reports on the impacts of interregional changes in transportation rates from those used in the Annual Energy Outlook 2005 (AEO2005) reference case.

 
Impacts of Modeled Recommendations of the National Commission on Energy Policy

Released: April 1, 2005

This report provides the Energy Information Administration's analysis of those National Commission on Energy Policy (NCEP) energy policy recommendations that could be simulated using the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS).

 
Impacts of Temperature Variation on Energy Demand in Buildings (released in AEO2005)

Released: April 1, 2005

In the residential and commercial sectors, heating and cooling account for more than 40% of end-use energy demand. As a result, energy consumption in those sectors can vary significantly from year to year, depending on yearly average temperatures.

13 SEER Standard for Central Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps (released in AEO2005)

Released: April 1, 2005

In January 2004, after years of litigation in a case that pitted environmental groups and Attorneys General from 10 states against the U.S. Secretary of Energy, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit reestablished the central air conditioner and heat pump standard originally set in January 200. The Courts ruling, which struck down a May 2002 rollback of the 2001 standard to a 12 Seasonal Energy Efficiency Ratio (SEER) mandates that all new central air conditioners and heat pumps meet a 13 SEER standard by January 2006, requiring a 30% increase in efficiency relative to current law. The Annual Energy Outlook 2005 reference case incorporates the 13 SEER standard as mandated by the Courts ruling.

Multi-Pollutant Legislation and Regulations (released in AEO2005)

Released: February 1, 2005

The 108th Congress proposed and debated a variety of bills addressing pollution control at electric power plants but did not pass any of them into law. In addition, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) currently is preparing two regulations-a proposed Clean Air Interstate Rule (pCAIR) and a Clean Air Mercury Rule (CAMR)-to address emissions from coal-fired power plants. Several states also have taken legislative actions to limit pollutants from power plants in their jurisdictions. This section discusses three Congressional air pollution bills and the EPA's pCAIR and CAMR regulations.

Maximum Achievable Control Technology for New Industrial Boilers (released in AEO2005)

Released: February 1, 2005

As part of Clean Air Act 90 (CAAA90, the EPA on February 26, 2004, issued a final rulethe National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants (NESHAP) to reduce emissions of hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) from industrial, commercial, and institutional boilers and process heaters. The rule requires industrial boilers and process heaters to meet limits on HAP emissions to comply with a Maximum Achievable Control Technology (MACT) floor level of control that is the minimum level such sources must meet to comply with the rule. The major HAPs to be reduced are hydrochloric acid, hydrofluoric acid, arsenic, beryllium, cadmium, and nickel. The EPA predicts that the boiler MACT rule will reduce those HAP emissions from existing sources by about 59,000 tons per year in 2005.

Restricted Natural Gas Supply Case (released in AEO2005)

Released: February 1, 2005

The restricted natural gas supply case provides an analysis of the energy-economic implications of a scenario in which future gas supply is significantly more constrained than assumed in the reference case. Future natural gas supply conditions could be constrained because of problems with the construction and operation of large new energy projects, and because the future rate of technological progress could be significantly lower than the historical rate. Although the restricted natural gas supply case represents a plausible set of constraints on future natural gas supply, it is not intended to represent what is likely to happen in the future.

Update on State Air Emission Regulations That Affect Electric Power Producers (released in AEO2005)

Released: February 1, 2005

Several states have recently enacted air emission regulations that will affect the electricity generation sector. The regulations are intended to improve air quality in the states and assist them in complying with the revised 1997 National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) for ground-level ozone and fine particulates. The affected states include Connecticut, Massachusetts, Maine, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Oregon, Texas, and Washington. The regulations govern emissions of NOx, SO2, CO2, and mercury from power plants.

State Renewable Energy Requirements and Goals: Update Through 2003 (released in AEO2005)

Released: February 1, 2005

As of the end of 2003, 15 states had legislated programs to encourage the development of renewable energy for electricity generation. Of the 17 programs (two states have multiple programs), 9 are renewable portfolio standards (RPS), 4 are renewable energy mandates, and 4 are renewable energy goals.

U.S. Greenhouse Gas Intensity and the Global Climate Change Initiative (released in AEO2005)

Released: February 1, 2005

On February 14, 2002, President Bush announced the Administrations Global Climate Change Initiative. A key goal of the Climate Change Initiative is to reduce U.S. greenhouse gas intensity by 18% over the 2002 to 2012 time frame. For the purposes of the initiative, greenhouse gas intensity is defined as the ratio of total U.S. greenhouse gas emissions to economic output.

Military Construction Appropriations and Emergency Hurricane Supplemental Appropriations Act, 2005 (released in AEO2005)

Released: February 1, 2005

H.R. 4837, The Military Construction Appropriations and Emergency Hurricane Supplemental Appropriations Act, 2005, was signed into law on October 13, 2004. The Act provides for construction to support the operations of the U.S. Armed Forces and for military family housing. It also provides funds to help citizens in Florida and elsewhere in the aftermath of multiple hurricanes and other natural disasters. In addition, it authorizes construction of an Alaska Natural Gas Pipeline.

Climate Stewardship Act of 2004 (released in AEO2005)

Released: February 1, 2005

The Climate Stewardship Act of 2004 would establish a system of tradable allowances to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The bill includes requirements for mandatory emissions reporting by covered entities and for voluntary reporting of emissions reduction activities by noncovered entities; a national greenhouse gas database and registry of reductions; and a research program on climate change and related activities.

Working Families Tax Relief Act of 2004 (released in AEO2005)

Released: February 1, 2005

The Working Families Tax Relief Act of 2004 was signed into law on October 13, 2004. Primarily, the Act reduces taxes for individuals and businesses. At least two provisions relate to energy: Depletion of marginal properties and qualified vehicles.

American Jobs Creation Act of 2004 (released in AEO2005)

Released: February 1, 2005

The American Jobs Creation Act of 2004 was signed into law on October 22, 2004. Most of the 650 pages of the Act are related to tax legislation. Provisions pertaining to energy are detailed in this analysis.

World Oil Price Cases (released in AEO2005)

Released: February 1, 2005

World oil prices in Annual Energy Outlook 2005 are set in an environment where the members of OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) are assumed to act as the dominant producers, with lower production costs than other supply regions or countries. Non-OPEC oil producers are assumed to behave competitively, producing as much oil as they can profitability extract at the market price for oil. As a result, the OPEC member countries will be able effectively to set the price of oil when they can act in concert by varying their aggregate production. Alternatively, OPEC members could target a fixed level of production and let the world market determine the price.

Changing Trends in the Bulk Chemicals and Pulp and Paper Industries (released in AEO2005)

Released: February 1, 2005

Compared with the experience of the 1990s, rising energy prices in recent years have led to questions about expectations of growth in industrial output, particularly in energy-intensive industries. Given the higher price trends, a review of expected growth trends in selected industries was undertaken as part of the production of Annual Energy Outlook 2005 (AEO). In addition, projections for the industrial value of shipments, which were based on the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) system in AEO2004, are based on the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) in AEO2005. The change in industrial classification leads to lower historical growth rates for many industrial sectors. The impacts of these two changes are highlighted in this section for two of the largest energy-consuming industries in the U.S. industrial sector-bulk chemicals and pulp and paper.

Clean Air Nonroad Diesel Rule (released in AEO2005)

Released: February 1, 2005

On June 29, 2004, the Environmental Protection Agency issued a comprehensive final rule regulating emissions from nonroad diesel engines and sulfur content in nonroad diesel fuel. The nonroad fuel market makes up more than 18% of the total distillate pool. The rule applies to new equipment covering a broad range of engine sizes, power ratings, and equipment types. There are currently about 6 million pieces of nonroad equipment operating in the United States, and more than 650,000 new units are sold each year.

Fuel Economy of the Light-Duty Vehicle Fleet (released in AEO2005)

Released: February 1, 2005

The U.S. fleet of light-duty vehicles consists of cars and light trucks, including minivans, sport utility vehicles (SUVs) and trucks with gross vehicle weight less than 8,500 pounds. The fuel economy of light-duty vehicles is regulated by the (Corporate Average Fuel Economy) CAFE standards set by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. Currently, the CAFE standard is 27.5 miles per gallon (mpg) for cars and 20.7 mpg for light trucks. The most recent increase in the CAFE standard for cars was in 1990, and the most recent increase in the CAFE standard for light trucks was in 1996.

California Greenhouse Gas Emissions Standards for Light-Duty Vehicles (released in AEO2005)

Released: February 1, 2005

In July 2002, California Assembly Bill 1493 (A.B. 1493) was signed into law. The law requires that the California Air Resources Board (CARB) develop and adopt, by January 1, 2005, greenhouse gas emission standards for light-duty vehicles that provide the maximum feasible reduction in emissions. In estimating the feasibility of the standard, CARB is required to consider cost-effectiveness, technological capability, economic impacts, and flexibility for manufacturers in meeting the standard.

Analysis of Alternative Mercury Control Strategies

Released: January 1, 2005

This analysis responds to a September 14, 2004, request from Chairmen James M. Inhofe and George V. Voinovich asking the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to analyze the impacts of different approaches for removing mercury from coal-fired power plants.

 
Long-Term World Oil Supply Scenarios

Released: August 1, 2004

Analysis of long term world oil supply.

 
Analysis of S. 1844, the Clear Skies Act of 2003; S. 843, the Clean Air Planning Act of 2003; and S. 366, the Clean Power Act of 2003

Released: May 1, 2004

Senator James M. Inhofe requested that the Energy Information Administration (EIA) undertake analysis of S.843, the Clean Air Planning Act of 2003, introduced by Senator Thomas Carper; S.366, the Clean Power Act of 2003, introduced by Senator James Jeffords; and S.1844, the Clear Skies Act of 2003, introduced by Senator James M. Inhofe. The EIA received this request on March 19, 2004. This Service Report responds to his request.

 
Analysis of Senate Amendment 2028, the Climate Stewardship Act of 2003

Released: May 1, 2004

On May 11, 2004, Senator Landrieu asked the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to evaluate SA 2028. This paper responds to that request, relying on the modeling methodology, data sources, and assumptions used to analyze the original bill, as extensively documented in EIA's June 2003 report.

 
Update of Summer Reformulated Gasoline Supply Assessment for New York and Connecticut

Released: May 1, 2004

In October 2003, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) published a review of the status of the methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) ban transition in New York (NY) and Connecticut (CT) that noted significant uncertainties in gasoline supply for those states for the summer of 2004. To obtain updated information, EIA spoke to major suppliers to the two states over the past several months as the petroleum industry began the switch from winter- to summer-grade gasoline.

 
Analysis of Oil and Gas Production in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge

Released: March 1, 2004

This study analyzed the impact on future oil imports and expenditures of opening the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) to petroleum development. High, low, and mean ANWR oil resource case projections were compared to the Annual Energy Outlook 2004 reference case. The study also examined whether potential synergies exist in opening ANWR to petroleum development and the construction of an Alaska gas pipeline from the North Slope to the lower 48 states.

 
Analysis of Restricted Natural Gas Supply Cases

Released: March 1, 2004

The four cases examined in this study have progressively greater impacts on overall natural gas consumption, prices, and supply. Compared to the Annual Energy Outlook 2004 reference case, the no Alaska pipeline case has the least impact; the low liquefied natural gas case has more impact; the low unconventional gas recovery case has even more impact; and the combined case has the most impact.

 
Summary Impacts of Modeled Provisions of the 2003 Conference Energy Bill

Released: February 1, 2004

This service report was undertaken at the February 2, 2004, request of Senator John Sununu to perform an assessment of the Conference Energy Bill of 2003. This report summarizes the CEB provisions that can be analyzed using the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) and have the potential to affect energy consumption, supply, and prices. The impacts are estimated by comparing the projections with the CEB provisions to the AEO2004 Reference Case.

 
Analysis of Five Selected Tax Provisions of the Conference Energy Bill of 2003

Released: February 1, 2004

This special report was undertaken at the January 29, 2004, request of Senator John Sununu to perform an assessment of five specific tax provisions of the Conference Energy Bill of 2003.

 
Global Liquefied Natural Gas Market: Status and Outlook, The

Released: December 1, 2003

The Global Liquefied Natural Gas Market: Status & Outlook was undertaken to characterize the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market and to examine recent trends and future prospects in the LNG market.

 
Inquiry into August 2003 Gasoline Price Spike

Released: December 1, 2003

U.S. Secretary of Energy Spencer Abraham requested that the Energy Information Administration conduct an inquiry into the causes of the price increases of gasoline in July and August of 2003.

 
Preparations for Meeting New York and Connecticut MTBE Bans

Released: October 1, 2003

In response to a Congressional request, the Energy Information Administration examined the progress being made to meet the bans on the use of methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) being implemented in New York and Connecticut at the end of 2003.

 
Price Responsiveness in the AEO2003 NEMS Residential and Commercial Buildings Sector Models

Released: October 1, 2003

This paper describes the demand responses to changes in energy prices in the Annual Energy Outlook 2003 versions of the Residential and Commercial Demand Modules of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). It updates a similar paper completed for the Annual Energy Outlook 1999 version of the NEMS.

 
Analyses of Selected Provisions of Proposed Energy Legislation: 2003

Released: September 1, 2003

This study responds to a July 31, 2003 request from Senator Byron L. Dorgan. The study is based primarily on analyses the Energy Information Administration has previously done for studies requested by Congress. It includes analysis of the Renewable Portfolio Standard, Renewable Fuels Standard, production in the Alaskan National Wildlife Refuge, the construction of an Alaskan Natural Gas pipeline, and various tax provisions.

 
Analysis of S. 485, the Clear Skies Act of 2003, and S. 843, the Clean Air Planning Act of 2003

Released: September 1, 2003

On July 30, 2003, Senator James M. Inhofe requested the Energy Information Administration to undertake analyses of S.843, The Clean Air Planning Act of 2003, introduced by Senator Thomas Carper, and S.485, Clear Skies Act of 2003. Senator Inhofe also asked the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to analyze S. 485 without the mercury provisions and S. 843 without the mercury and carbon dioxide provisions. This service report responds to both requests.

 
System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets - Vol. II, Model Documentation

Released: August 1, 2003

The second volume provides a data implementation guide that lists all naming conventions and model constraints. In addition, Volume 1 has two appendixes that provide a schematic of the System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (SAGE) structure and a listing of the source code, respectively.

 
System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets - Vol. I, Model Documentation

Released: August 1, 2003

Documents the objectives and the conceptual and methodological approach used in the development of projections for the International Energy Outlook. The first volume of this report describes the System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (SAGE) methodology and provides an in-depth explanation of the equations of the model.

 
Analysis of a 10% RPS - Response letter summarizing principal conclusions of supplement

Released: June 30, 2003

Transmittal letter for the supplement to the Service Report 'Analysis of a 10% Renewable Portfolio Standard'.

 
Analysis of a 10% Renewable Portfolio Standard, Supplement to

Released: June 30, 2003

On June 10, 2003, Senator Pete Domenici, Chairman of the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, requested additional analysis of a Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS), expected to be proposed as an amendment to energy legislation currently pending before the U.S. Senate. This request asked the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to provide additional results from two previously released EIA analyses of the proposed legislation, and to conduct further analyses with modified assumptions.

 
Analysis of S.139, the Climate Stewardship Act of 2003

Released: June 1, 2003

On January 9, 2003, Senators John McCain and Joseph I. Lieberman introduced Senate Bill 139 (S.139), the Climate Stewardship Act of 2003, in the U.S. Senate. S.139 would require the Administrator of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to promulgate regulations to limit greenhouse gas emissions. On January 28, 2003, Senator James M. Inhofe requested that the Energy Information Administration (EIA) perform a comprehensive analysis of S.139. On April 2, 2003, Senators McCain and Lieberman, cosponsors of S.139, made a further request for analyses of their bill. This Service Report responds to both requests.

 
Analysis of a 10% Renewable Portfolio Standard, Addendum

Released: June 1, 2003

On May 8, 2003, Senator Jeff Bingaman, the Ranking Minority Member of the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, requested an analysis of a nationwide Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) program proposed to be amended to energy legislation currently pending before the U.S. Senate. With his request Sen. Bingaman provided specific information on the program to be analyzed. This analysis was prepared in response to his request and projects the impact of the proposed program on energy supply, demand, prices, and emissions. The analysis is based on the Annual Energy Outlook 2003 (AEO2003) projections of energy supply, demand, and prices through 2025, as updated in May 2003.

 
Analysis of a 10% Renewable Portfolio Standard

Released: May 1, 2003

On May 8, 2003, Senator Jeff Bingaman, the Ranking Minority Member of the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, requested an analysis of a nationwide Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) program proposed to be amended to energy legislation currently pending before the U.S. Senate. With his request Sen. Bingaman provided specific information on the program to be analyzed. This analysis was prepared in response to his request and projects the impact of the proposed program on energy supply, demand, prices, and emissions. The analysis is based on the Annual Energy Outlook 2003 (AEO2003) projections of energy supply, demand, and prices through 2025, as updated in May 2003.

 
Motor Gasoline Outlook and State MTBE Bans

Released: April 1, 2003

The U.S. is beginning the summer 2003 driving season with lower gasoline inventories and higher prices than last year. Recovery from this tight gasoline market could be made more difficult by impending state bans on the blending of methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) into gasoline that are scheduled to begin later this year.

Status and Impacts of State MTBE Bans

Released: March 1, 2003

This paper describes legislation passed in 16 states banning or restricting the use of methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) in gasoline. Analysis of the status and impact of these state MTBE bans is provided concerning the supply and potential price changes of gasoline.

 
Forecasting Crude Oil Spot Price Using OECD Petroleum Inventory Levels

Released: March 1, 2003

This paper presents a short-term monthly forecasting model of West Texas Intermediate crude oil spot price using Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) petroleum inventory levels.

 
Interim Data Changes in the Short-term Energy Outlook Data Systems Related to Electric Power Sector and Natural Gas Demand Data Revisions (Released in the STEO December 2002)

Released: December 1, 2002

Beginning with the December 2002 issue of the Energy Information Administration's Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), electricity generation and related fuel consumption totals will be presented on a basis that is consistent with the definitions and aggregates used in the 2001 edition of EIA's Annual Energy Review (AER). Particularly affected by these changes are the demand and balancing item totals for natural

 
Derivatives and Risk Management in the Petroleum, Natural Gas, and Electricity Industries

Released: October 1, 2002

In February 2002 the Secretary of Energy directed the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to prepare a report on the nature and use of derivative contracts in the petroleum, natural gas, and electricity industries. Derivatives are contracts ('financial instruments') that are used to manage risk, especially price risk.

 
Timing for Startup of the Renewable Fuel Standard

Released: September 15, 2002

This paper responds to whether or not moving the start date of the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) from its currently proposed January 2004 to October 2004 would improve the chances of a smooth transition.

 
Gasoline Type Proliferation and Price Volatility

Released: September 1, 2002

This paper focuses on the potential effect/role of implementation of a national menu of fuels to address the proliferation of boutique fuels.

 
Timing of Startups of the Low-Sulfur and RFS Programs

Released: September 1, 2002

This paper focuses on whether supply problems could be reduced during the startup stage phases of these programs through timing changes.

 
Supply Impacts of an MTBE Ban

Released: September 1, 2002

This paper analyzes the supply impacts of removing methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) from gasoline.

 
Analysis of Selected Transportation Fuel Issues Associated with Proposed Energy Legislation -Summary

Released: September 1, 2002

Summary of a series of 8 papers discussing the market impacts the Senate-passed fuels provisions of H.R.4, the Energy Policy Act of 2002.

 
Review of Transportation Issues & Comparison of Infrastructure Costs for a Renewable Fuels Standard

Released: September 1, 2002

This paper analyzes the inter-regional transportation issues and associated costs for increased distribution of renewable fuels with the assumption that ethanol will be used to meet the standards.

 
Renewable Motor Fuel Production Capacity Under H.R.4

Released: September 1, 2002

This paper analyzes renewable motor fuel production capacity with the assumption that ethanol will be used to meet the renewable fuels standard.

 
Reformulated Gasoline Use Under the 8-Hour Ozone Rule

Released: September 1, 2002

This paper focuses on the impact on gasoline price and supply when additional ozone non-attainment areas come under the new 8-hour ozone standard.

 
Potential Supply Impacts of Removal of 1-Pound RVP Waiver

Released: September 1, 2002

This paper provides background on the 1-pound waiver and how It can affect gasoline volumes.

 
Measuring Changes in Energy Efficiency for the Annual Energy Outlook 2002

Released: July 1, 2002

This paper describes the methodology used to develop the National Energy Modeling System estimate of projected aggregate energy efficiency and to describe the results of applying it to the Annual Energy Outlook 2002 (AEO2002) reference case.

 
Delivered Energy Consumption Projections by Industry in the Annual Energy Outlook 2002

Released: June 1, 2002

This paper presents delivered energy consumption and intensity projections for the industries included in the industrial sector of the National Energy Modeling System.

 
Impact of Renewable Fuels Standard/MTBE Provisions of S. 517 Requested by Sens. Daschle & Murkowski

Released: April 1, 2002

Additional analysis of the impact of the Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) and methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) ban provisions of S. 517.

 
Impact of Renewable Fuels Standard/MTBE Provisions of S. 1766

Released: March 12, 2002

This service report addresses the Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS)/methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) provisions of S. 1766. The 'S. 1766' Case reflects provisions of S. 1766 including a renewable fuels standard (RFS) reaching five billion gallons by 2012, a complete phase-out of MTBE within four years, and the option for states to waive the oxygen requirement for reformulated gasoline (RFG).

 
Impacts of a 10% Renewable Portfolio Standard

Released: March 1, 2002

This service report addresses the renewable portfolio standard provision of S. 1766. At Senator Murkowski's request it also includes an analysis of the impacts of a renewable portfolio standard (RPS) patterned after the one called for in S. 1766, but where the required share is based on a 20% RPS by 2020 rather than the 10% RPS called for in S. 1766.

 
Effects of Alaska Oil and Natural Gas Provisions of H. R. 4 and S. 1766 on U.S. Energy Markets

Released: March 1, 2002

On December 20, 2001, Sen. Frank Murkowski, the Ranking Minority Member of the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources requested an analysis of selected portions of Senate Bill 1766 (S. 1766, the Energy Policy Act of 2002) and House Bill H.R. 4 (the Securing America's Future Energy Act of 2001). In response, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) has prepared a series of analyses showing the impacts of each of the selected provisions of the bills on energy supply, demand, and prices, macroeconomic variables where relevant, import dependence, and emissions. The analysis provided is based on the Annual Energy Outlook 2002 (AEO2002) midterm forecasts of energy supply, demand, and prices through 2020.

 
Analysis of Efficiency Standards for Air Conditioners, Heat Pumps, and Other Products

Released: March 1, 2002

A series of analyses showing the impacts of each of the selected provisions of the bills on energy supply, demand, and prices, macroeconomic variables where feasible, import dependence, and emissions.

 
Impacts of Energy Research and Development With Analyses of Price-Andersen Act & Hydro Relicensing

Released: March 1, 2002

This report deals primarily with the Research and Development provisions of S. 1766, organized across four areas: energy efficiency, renewable energy, fossil energy, and nuclear energy. The provisions are assessed using the results from Annual Energy Outlook 2002 and other side cases, rather than a direct quantitative analysis.

 
Effects of Alaska Oil and Natural Gas Provisions of H. R. 4 and S. 1766 on U.S. Energy Markets, Addendum

Released: March 1, 2002

This addendum provides projections on the increase in U.S. oil production from opening the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, the decease in net petroleum imports, and the change in net petroleum expenditures across a range of cases.

 
Methodology for the Assessment of the Macroeconomic Impacts of Stricter CAFE Standards - Addendum

Released: March 1, 2002

This assessment of the economic impacts of Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFÉ) standards marks the first time the Energy Information Administration has used the new direct linkage of the DRI-WEFA Macroeconomic Model to the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) in a policy setting. This methodology assures an internally consistent solution between the energy market concepts forecast by NEMS and the aggregate economy as forecast by the DRI-WEFA Macroeconomic Model of the U.S. Economy.

 
Analysis of Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) Standards for Light Trucks and Increased Alternative Fuel Use

Released: March 1, 2002

Sen. Frank Murkowski, the Ranking Minority Member of the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources requested an analysis of selected portions of Senate Bill 1766 (S. 1766, the Energy Policy Act of 2002), House Resolution 4 (the Securing America's Future Energy Act of 2001) and Senate Bill 517 (S. 517, the Energy Policy Act of 2002). In response, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) has prepared a series of analyses showing the impacts of each of the selected provisions of the bills on energy supply, demand, and prices, macroeconomic variables where feasible, import dependence, and emissions.

 
U.S. Natural Gas Markets: Mid-Term Prospects for Natural Gas Supply

Released: December 1, 2001

This service report describes the recent behavior of natural gas markets with respect to natural gas prices, their potential future behavior, the potential future supply contribution of liquefied natural gas and increased access to federally restricted resources, and the need for improved natural gas data.

 
Analysis of Strategies for Reducing Multiple Emissions from Electric Power Plants with Advanced Technology

Released: October 1, 2001

This analysis responds to a request of Senators James M. Jeffords and Joseph I. Lieberman. This report describes the impacts of technology improvements and other market-based opportunities on the costs of emissions reductions from electricity generators, including nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide, mercury, and carbon dioxide.

 
Reducing Emissions of Sulfur Dioxide, Nitrogen Oxides, and Mercury from Electric Power Plants

Released: October 1, 2001

This analysis responds to a request from Senators Bob Smith, George Voinovich, and Sam Brownback to examine the costs of specific multi-emission reduction strategies.

 
Natural Gas Transportation - Infrastructure Issues and Operational Trends

Released: October 1, 2001

This report examines how well the current national natural gas pipeline network has been able to handle today's market demand for natural gas. In addition, it identifies those areas of the country where pipeline utilization is continuing to grow rapidly and where new pipeline capacity is needed or is planned over the next several years.

 
Analysis of Strategies for Multiple Emissions from Electric Power SO2, NOX, CO2, Mercury and RPS

Released: July 1, 2001

At the request of the Subcommittee, the Energy Information Administration prepared an initial report that focused on the impacts of reducing power sector NOx, SO2, and CO2 emissions. The current report extends the earlier analysis to add the impacts of reducing power sector mercury emissions and introducing renewable portfolio standard (RPS) requirements.

 
Analysis of Strategies for Reducing Multiple Emissions from Electric Power Plants: SO2, Nox, CO2

Released: July 1, 2001

This report responds to a request received from Senator David McIntosh on June 29, 2000 to analyze the impacts on energy consumers and producers of coordinated strategies to reduce emissions of sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and carbon dioxide at U.S. power plants.

 
Electricity Shortage in California: Issues for Petroleum and Natural Gas Supply

Released: June 1, 2001

This report addresses the potential impact of rotating electrical outages on petroleum product and natural gas supply in California.

Power Plant Emission Reductions Using a Generation Performance Standard

Released: May 1, 2001

In an earlier analysis completed in response to a request received from Representative David McIntosh, Chairman of the Subcommittee on National Economic Growth, Natural Resources, and Regulatory Affairs, the Energy Information Administration analyzed the impacts of power sector caps on nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide, and carbon dioxide emissions, assuming a policy instrument patterned after the sulfur dioxide allowance program created in the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990. This paper compares the results of that work with the results of an analysis that assumes the use of a dynamic generation performance standard as an instrument for reducing carbon dioxide emissions.

 
Transition to Ultra-Low-Sulfur Diesel Fuel: Effects on Prices and Supply, The

Released: May 1, 2001

This report discusses the implications of the new regulations for vehicle fuel efficiency and examines the technology, production, distribution, and cost implications of supplying diesel fuel to meet the new standards.

 
U.S. Natural Gas Markets: Recent Trends and Prospects for the Future

Released: May 1, 2001

The purpose of this study is to examine recent trends and prospects for the future of the U.S. natural gas market. Natural gas prices rose dramatically in 2000 and remained high through the first part of 2001, raising concerns about the future of natural gas prices and potential for natural gas to fuel the growth of the U.S. economy.

 
Energy Price Impacts on the U.S. Economy

Released: April 1, 2001

A brief analysis of energy price impacts on the U.S. economy.

 
MTBE Production Economics (Released in the STEO April 2001)

Released: April 1, 2001

The purpose of this analysis is to evaluate the causes of methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) price increases in 2000.

Impact of Interruptible Natural Gas Service on Northeast Heating Oil Demand

Released: February 1, 2001

Assesses the extent of interruptible natural gas contracts and their effect on heating oil demand in the Northeast.

 
Impacts of Unconventional Gas Technology in the Annual Energy Outlook 2000

Released: November 1, 2000

This paper describes the methodology used in the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) to represent unconventional gas technologies and their impacts on projections in the Annual Energy Outlook 2000 (AEO2000).

 
Natural Gas Winter Outlook 2000-2001

Released: October 1, 2000

This article is based on the Winter Fuels Outlook published in the 4th Quarter Short-Term Energy Outlook and discusses the supply and demand outlook from October 2000 through March 2001.

 
Accelerated Depletion: Assessing Its Impacts on Domestic Oil and Natural Gas Prices and Production

Released: July 1, 2000

Analysis of the potential impacts of accelerated depletion on domestic oil and natural gas prices and production.

 
Potential Oil Production from Coastal Plain of Arctic National Wildlife Refuge: Updated Assessment

Released: May 1, 2000

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) received a letter (dated March 10, 2000) from Senator Frank H. Murkowski as Chairman of the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources requesting an EIA Service Report with plausible scenarios for the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) supply development consistent with the most recent U.S. Geological Survey resource assessments. This service report is prepared in response to the request of Senator Murkowski. It focuses on the ANWR coastal plain, a region currently restricted from exploration and development, and updates EIA's 1987 ANWR assessment.

 
Northeast Heating Fuel Market The, Assessment and Options

Released: May 1, 2000

In response to the President's request, this study examines how the distillate fuel oil market (and related energy markets) in the Northeast behaved in the winter of 1999-2000, explains the role played by residential, commercial, industrial, and electricity generation sector consumers in distillate fuel oil markets and describes how that role is influenced by the structure of the energy markets in the Northeast

 
Energy Consumption and Renewable Energy Development Potential on Indian Lands

Released: April 1, 2000

Includes information on the electricity use and needs of Indian households and tribes, the comparative electricity rates that Indian households are paying, and the potential for renewable resources development of Indian lands.

 
Outlook for Biomass Ethanol Production and Demand

Released: April 1, 2000

This paper presents a midterm forecast for biomass ethanol production under three different technology cases for the period 2000 to 2020, based on projections developed from the Energy Information Administration's National Energy Modeling System. An overview of cellulose conversion technology and various feedstock options and a brief history of ethanol usage in the United States are also presented.

 
Analysis of the Climate Change Technology Initiative: Fiscal Year 2001

Released: April 1, 2000

Analysis of the potential impacts of Climate Change Technology Initiative, relative to the baseline energy projections in the Annual Energy Outlook 2000 (AEO2000).

 
Impact of Technological Change and Productivity on the Coal Market

Released: January 1, 2000

This paper examines the components of past gains in productivity, including regional shifts, the exit of less productive producers, and technological progress Future prospects for continuing productivity gains at sustained, but lower, rates of improvement are discussed.

 
MTBE, Oxygenates, and Motor Gasoline (Released in the STEO October 1999)

Released: October 1, 1999

The blending of methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) into motor gasoline has increased dramatically since it was first produced 20 years ago. MTBE usage grew in the early 1980's in response to octane demand resulting initially from the phaseout of lead from gasoline and later from rising demand for premium gasoline. The oxygenated gasoline program stimulated an increase in MTBE production between 1990 and 1994. MTBE demand increased from 83,000 in 1990 to 161,000 barrels per day in 1994. The reformulated gasoline (RFG) program provided a further boost to oxygenate blending. The MTBE contained in motor gasoline increased to 269,000 barrels per day by 1997.

Impact of Temperature Trends on Short-Term Energy Demand, The (Released in the STEO September 1999)

Released: September 1, 1999

The past few years have witnessed unusually warm weather, as evidenced by both mild winters and hot summers. The analysis shows that the 30-year norms--the basis of weather-related energy demand projections--do not reflect the warming trend or its regional and seasonal patterns.

 
Comprehensive Electricity Competition Act: A Comparison of Model Results, The

Released: September 1, 1999

This report describes the Energy Information Administration's use of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) to evaluate the effects of the Administration's restructuring proposal using the parameter settings and assumptions from the Policy Office Electricity Modeling System (POEMS) analysis.

 
Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting

Released: August 1, 1999

Final issue of this report. Presents a series of eight papers, which cover topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1999, as well as other significant issues in midterm energy markets. (archived versions)

 
Areas Participating in the Oxygenated Gasoline Program (Released in the STEO July 1999)

Released: July 1, 1999

Section 211(m) of the Clean Air Act (42 U.S.C. 7401-7671q) requires that gasoline containing at least 2.7% oxygen by weight is to be used in the wintertime in those areas of the county that exceed the carbon monoxide National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS). The winter oxygenated gasoline program applies to all gasoline sold in the larger of the Consolidated Metropolitan Statistical Area (CMSA) or Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) in which the nonattainment area is located.

Analysis of the Impacts of an Early Start for Compliance with the Kyoto Protocol

Released: July 1, 1999

This report describes the Energy Information Administration's analysis of the impacts of an early start, using the same methodology as in Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity, with only those changes in assumptions caused by the early start date.

 
Areas Participating in the Reformulated Gasoline Program (Released in the STEO June 1999)

Released: June 1, 1999

Section 107(d) of the Clean Air Act, as amended in 1990 (the Act), required states to identify all areas that do not meet the national ambient air quality standards (NAAQS) for ozone, and directed the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to designate these areas as ozone nonattainment areas. Section 181 of the Act required EPA to classify each area as a marginal, moderate, serious, severe or extreme ozone nonattainment area. EPA classified all areas that were designated as in nonattainment for ozone at the time of the enactment of the 1990 Amendments, except for certain "nonclassifiable" areas (56 FR 56694, November 6, 1991).

Analysis of the Climate Change Technology Initiative

Released: April 1, 1999

Analysis of the impact of specific policies on the reduction of carbon emissions and their impact on U.S. energy use and prices in the 2008-2012 time frame. Also, analyzes the impact of the President's Climate Change Technology Initiative, as defined for the 2000 budget, on reducing carbon emissions from the levels forecast in the Annual Energy Outlook 1999 reference case.

 
What Does the Kyoto Protocol Mean to U.S. Energy Markets and the U.S. Economy?

Released: October 1, 1998

A briefing paper on the Energy Information Administration's analysis and report prepared for the Committee on Science, U.S. House of Representatives.

 
Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on Energy Markets and Economic Activity

Released: October 1, 1998

Analyzes the impacts on the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. energy markets and the economy in the 2008-2012 time frame.

 
Environmental Regulations and Changes in Petroleum Refining Operations (Released in the STEO June 1998)

Released: June 1, 1998

Changes in domestic refining operations are identified and related to the summer Reid vapor pressure (RVP) restrictions and oxygenate blending requirements. This analysis uses published Energy Information Administration survey data and linear regression equations from the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS). The STIFS model is used for producing forecasts appearing in the Short-Term Energy Outlook.

Oxygenate Supply/Demand Balances in the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting Model (Released in the STEO March 1998)

Released: March 1, 1998

The blending of oxygenates, such as fuel ethanol and methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE), into motor gasoline has increased dramatically in the last few years because of the oxygenated and reformulated gasoline programs. Because of the significant role oxygenates now have in petroleum product markets, the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) was revised to include supply and demand balances for fuel ethanol and MTBE. The STIFS model is used for producing forecasts in the Short-Term Energy Outlook. A review of the historical data sources and forecasting methodology for oxygenate production, imports, inventories, and demand is presented in this report.

Reformulated Gasoline Foreign Refinery Rules (Released in the STEO January 1998)

Released: January 2, 1998

On August 27, 1997, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) promulgated revised the rules that allow foreign refiners to establish and use individual baselines, but it would not be mandatory (the optional use of an individual refinery baseline is not available to domestic refiners.) If a foreign refiner did not establish and use an individual baseline, the gasoline they export to the United States would be regulated through the importer, and subject to the importer's baseline (most likely the statutory baseline). Specific regulatory provisions are implemented to ensure that the option to use an individual baseline would not lead to adverse environmental impacts. This involves monitoring the average quality of imported gasoline, and if a specified benchmark is exceeded, remedial action would be taken by adjusting the requirements applicable to imported gasoline.

Refiners Switch to RFG Complex Model

Released: January 2, 1998

On January 1, 1998, domestic and foreign refineries and importers must stop using the "simple" model and begin using the "complex" model to calculate emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOC), toxic air pollutants (TAP), and nitrogen oxides (NOx) from motor gasoline. The primary differences between application of the two models is that some refineries may have to meet stricter standards for the sulfur and olefin content of the reformulated gasoline (RFG) they produce and all refineries will now be held accountable for NOx emissions. Requirements for calculating emissions from conventional gasoline under the anti-dumping rule similarly change for exhaust TAP and NOx. However, the change to the complex model is not expected to result in an increase in the price premium for RFG or constrain supplies.

Impacts on U.S. Energy Markets and the Economy of Reducing Oil Imports

Released: September 1, 1996

This study was undertaken at the request of the General Accounting Office (GAO). Its purpose is to evaluate the impacts on U.S. energy markets and the economy of reducing oil imports. The approach and assumptions underlying this report were specified by GAO and are attached as an Appendix. The study focuses on two approaches: (1) a set of cases with alternative world crude oil price trajectories and (2) two cases which investigate the use of an oil import tariff to achieve a target reduction in the oil imports. The analysis presented uses the National Energy Modeling System, which is maintained by the Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting within the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and the DRI/McGraw Hill Macroeconomic Model of the U.S. Economy, a proprietary model maintained by DRI and subscribed to by EIA.

 
DRI Model of the U.S. Economy -- Model Documentation:

Released: December 1, 1993

Provides documentation on Data Resources, Inc., DRI Model of the U.S. Economy and the DRI Personal Computer Input/Output Model. It also describes the theoretical basis, structure and functions of both DRI models; and contains brief descriptions of the models and their equations.

 
Comparison of Measures by Consumption and Supply Surveys, A

Released: June 15, 1988

This report was prepared in response to a request from the Office of Policy Integration in the U.S. Department of Energy for an analysis of how Energy Information Administration data from its consumption surveys compares with data from its supply surveys.

 

Search within Analysis & Projections


Search All Reports & Publications >