SIn 2004, the tightening crude oil market and increasing price  -- not conversion capacity or distillation capacity – was the main driver behind high prices, high differentials, and high margins.
	SIn the short-run, forecasts and risk analyses looking at differentials and margins should focus on what will happen to crude oil markets more than what will happen to refinery capacity.
	SThis is not to say we can forget about refining capacity needs.