|SIn 2004, the tightening crude oil market
and increasing price -- not conversion
capacity or distillation capacity – was the main driver behind high prices,
high differentials, and high margins.
|SIn the short-run, forecasts and risk analyses
looking at differentials and margins should focus on what will happen to
crude oil markets more than what will happen to refinery capacity.
|SThis is not to say we can forget about
refining capacity needs.