SMost “reference case” or “business as usual” forecasts today show petroleum demand in the United States continuing to grow over the next 25 years or so, driven by transportation fuels.
	SEIA’s reference case shows petroleum demand for transportation fuels reaching a level in 2025 that is more than 50% greater than petroleum transportation demand today.  An additional 7 million barrels per day will need to be supplied over what was supplied in 2000, which indicates a need for more capacity.
	SFactors can change this outlook.  It would seem that a significant slowing in demand growth or a significant shift in the mix between diesel and gasoline could have tremendous impacts on the shape of the refining industry in the future.
	SBut do such alternative scenarios merit consideration?  History can provide some insights.  For example, in the early 1980’s, high prices, a recession, and improved vehicle fuel efficiencies helped reduce demand.
	SThe next slides consider the potential impact of fuel efficiencies.