NPRA Annual Meeting 2004
Efficiency Could Affect Demand,
But How Quickly?
Fleet
Weight
4063 lbs
Fleet
Weight
3273 lbs
Fleet
Weight
3870 lbs
Future Efficiency
•Materials
•Drag
•Hybrid
•Advanced Batteries
•Advanced Diesel
Source: U.S EPA, Light-Duty Automotive and Fuel Economy Trends: 1975-2003, April 2003.
SCorporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards and high fuel prices resulted in large improvements in vehicle efficiencies for almost 10 years in the late seventies and early eighties.

SUltimately other factors such as the interest in minivans, SUV’s and heavier and higher performance automobiles countered those improvements, and light duty vehicle efficiency actually declined for the entire fleet.  Will this change?

SAs we look into the future, one factor that could change the current efficiency trend is a stronger movement towards limiting CO2 emissions.  Technology exists to improve efficiencies, but at a cost.

SAssuming the United States decided to incur the cost, how quickly could changes in efficiency make an appreciable impact?