Slide 4 of 19
- EIA assumes in its base case that OPEC 10 production averages about 0.6 million barrels per day less in the 1st quarter of 2001 than was produced in the 4th quarter of 2000. This is based on the assumption that beginning in February 2001, OPEC 10 production is 1 million barrels per day less than the estimate for December 2000.
- Over the course of the past year, worldwide oil production has increased by about 3.7 million barrels per day to a level of 77.8 million barrels per day in the last months of 2000.
- After being nearly completely curtailed in December 2000, EIA’s base case assumes that Iraqi oil exports only partially return in January. By February, EIA assumes Iraqi crude oil production reaches 3 million barrels per day, roughly the peak levels reached last year.
- EIA also assumes that after increasing by about 1.2 million barrels per day in 2000, non-OPEC crude oil production increases by about 0.8 million barrels per day in 2001.
- Following relatively small increases of 1.2 million barrels per day each in 1999 and 2000, EIA is estimating world demand may grow by 2.0 million barrels per day in 2001. Of this increase, about 2/3 comes from non-OECD countries, while U.S. oil demand growth represents more than half of the growth projected in OECD countries.