Natural Gas Productive Capacity for the Lower-48 States - Summary -
This presentation contains monthly projections of natural gas effective productive capacity in the Lower-48 States for 2001. Effective productive capacity declined in 1998 and 1999, increased through 2000, and in 2001, is projected to increase faster than production.
- Natural gas effective productive capacity measures the maximum production available from natural gas wells. It is measured in billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d).
- The difference between effective productive capacity and actual production is called surplus capacity.
- The ratio of actual production to effective productive capacity is called the effective capacity utilization rate.
Four cases are developed in this analysis:
- The Base case uses the corresponding oil and gas price paths and production path in EIA’s January 2001 Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) (Table 1). Oil and gas prices were reduced or increased 25 percent for the Low and High cases.
- The Constant Drilling case estimates effective productive capacity if drilling stays at some constant rate (879 active gas rigs starting in January 2001) independent of the actual or projected gas price path.