‹ Analysis & Projections

Annual Energy Outlook 2014

Release Date: May 7, 2014   |  Next Early Release Date: January 15, 2015   |  See schedule  |  full report

Comparison with other projections

Table 11. Comparisons of electricity projections, 2025, 2035, and 2040
(billion kilowatthours, except where noted)
      Other projections
Projection 2011 AEO2013
Reference case
EVA IHSGI INFORUM ICF NREL
        2025     2026
Average end-use price
(2011 cents per kilowatthour)a
9.9 9.5 -- 11.2 10.0 -- 10.4
Residential 11.7 11.6 -- 13.3 11.8 -- --
Commercial 10.2 9.7 -- 11.6 10.3 -- --
Industrial 6.8 6.5 -- 7.6 6.8 -- --
Total generation including CHP plus imports 4,130 4,612 4,570 5,207 4,296 4,860 4,693
Coal 1,730 1,727 1,726 1,605 -- -- 1,860
Petroleum 28 18 -- 33 -- -- 0
Natural gasb 1,000 1,252 1,387 1,732 -- -- 1,041
Nuclear 790 912 890 923 -- -- 794
Hydroelectric/otherc 544 681 567 852 -- -- 997
Net imports 37 22 -- 62 -- -- --
Electricity salesd 3,725 4,140 4,311 4,712 4,095 -- 4,487
Residential 1,424 1,488 1,750 1,756 1,536 -- --
Commercial/othere 1,326 1,466 1,824 1,709 1,526 -- --
Industrial 976 1,186 736 1,246 1,033 -- --
Capacity, including CHP (gigawatts)f 1,049 1,098 1,141 1,237 -- 1,135 1,146
Coal 318 276 255 278 -- 249 273
Oil and natural gas 463 500 568 555 -- 546 515
Nuclear 101 114 108 115 -- 106 102
Hydroelectric/otherg 167 208 210 289 -- 234 257
Cumulative capacity retirements from 2011 (gigawatts)h -- 82 151 83 -- 106 102
Coal -- 49 73 46 -- 73 33
Oil and natural gas -- 32 73 36 -- 29 69
Nuclear -- 1 3 1 -- 3 0
Hydroelectric/otherg -- 1 2 -- -- 0 0
      2035        
Average end-use price
(2011 cents per kilowatthour)a
9.9 10.1 -- 11.9 10.5 -- 11.7
Residential 11.7 12.1 -- 14.1 12.2 -- --
Commercial 10.2 10.1 -- 12.3 10.6 -- --
Industrial 6.8 7.1 -- 8.1 7.1 -- --
Total generation including CHP plus imports 4,130 4,989 5,005 5,870 4,601 5,339 4,847
Coal 1,730 1,807 1,754 1,463 -- -- 1,703
Petroleum 28 18 -- 35 -- -- 0
Natural gasb 1,000 1,519 1,701 2,271 -- -- 1,730
Nuclear 790 875 839 953 -- -- 510
Hydroelectric/otherc 544 760 711 1,074 -- -- 904
Net imports 37 10 -- 73 -- -- --
Electricity salesd 3,725 4,421 4,923 5,316 4,406 -- 4,824
Residential 1,424 1,661 2,116 2,001 1,718 -- --
Commercial/othere 1,326 1,618 2,292 1,983 1,710 -- --
Industrial 976 1,142 515 1,332 978 -- --
Capacity, including CHP (gigawatts)f 1,049 1,206 1,263 1,420 -- 1,285 1,253
Coal 318 277 255 260 -- 245 238
Oil and natural gas 463 587 655 676 -- 665 654
Nuclear 101 109 103 120 -- 80 67
Hydroelectric/otherg 167 233 250 364 -- 295 294
Cumulative capacity retirements from 2011 (gigawatts)h -- 100 161 115 -- 133 243
Coal -- 49 77 68 -- 82 70
Oil and natural gas -- 44 74 38 -- 29 138
Nuclear -- 6 9 9 -- 21 35
Hydroelectric/otherg -- 1 2 -- -- 0 0
      2040        
Average end-use price
(2011 cents per kilowatthour)a
9.9 10.8 -- 12.2 -- -- 12.0
Residential 11.7 12.7 -- 14.4 -- -- --
Commercial 10.2 10.8 -- 12.5 -- -- --
Industrial 6.8 7.8 -- 8.3 -- -- --
Total generation including CHP plus imports 4,130 5,230 5,479 6,189 -- -- 4,913
Coal 1,730 1,829 1,740 1,418 -- -- 1,620
Petroleum 28 18 -- 36 -- -- 0
Natural gasb 1,000 1,582 2,330 2,506 -- -- 1,870
Nuclear 790 903 756 991 -- -- 442
Hydroelectric/otherc 544 879 653 1,164 -- -- 981
Net imports 37 18 -- 73 -- -- --
Electricity salesd 3,725 4,608 5,238 5,602 -- -- 4,940
Residential 1,424 1,767 2,303 2,116 -- -- --
Commercial/othere 1,326 1,697 2,528 2,109 -- -- --
Industrial 976 1,145 407 1,378 -- -- --
Capacity, including CHP (gigawatts)f 1,049 1,293 -- 1,495 -- -- 1,295
Coal 318 278 -- 251 -- -- 224
Oil and natural gas 463 632 -- 722 -- -- 691
Nuclear 101 113 -- 125 -- -- 58
Hydroelectric/otherg 167 270 -- 396 -- -- 322
Cumulative capacity retirements from 2011 (gigawatts)h -- 103 -- 128 -- -- 276
Coal -- 49 -- 80 -- -- 86
Oil and natural gas -- 46 -- 38 -- -- 146
Nuclear -- 7 -- 9 -- -- 44
Hydroelectric/otherg -- 1 -- -- -- -- 0

-- = not reported.
a average end-use price includes the transportation sector, NREL end-use prices expressed in 2009 dollars.
b Includes supplemental gaseous fuels. For EVA, represents total oil and natural gas.
c"Other" includes conventional hydroelectric, pumped storage, geothermal, wood, wood waste, municipal waste, other biomass, solar and wind
power, batteries, chemicals, hydrogen, pitch, purchased steam, sulfur, petroleum coke, and miscellaneous technologies.
d Electricity sales for EVA and INFORUM reflect the sum of the individual sector level sales.
e "Other" includes sales of electricity to government and other transportation services.
f AEO2013 capacity is net summer capability, including CHP plants and end-use generators.
g "Other" includes conventional hydroelectric, geothermal, wood, wood waste, all municipal waste, landfill gas, other biomass, solar, wind, pumped
storage, and fuel cells.
h IHSGI cumulative capacity retirements are calculated from annual totals. AEO2013 retirements are for electric power sector only.