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AEO2014 Early Release Overview

Release Date: December 16, 2013   |  Full Report Release Date: Early Spring 2014   |  correction   |   Report Number: DOE/EIA-0383ER(2014)


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Table 1. Comparison of projections in the AEO2014 and AEO2013 Reference case, 2011-2040 
      2025 2040
Energy and economic factors 2011 2012 AEO2014 AEO2013 AEO2014 AEO2013
Primary energy production (quadrillion Btu)
Crude oil and natural gas plant liquids 15.31 17.08 23.03 18.70 19.99 17.01
Dry natural gas 23.04 24.59 32.57 29.22 38.37 33.87
Coal 22.22 20.60 22.36 22.54 22.61 23.54
Nuclear/Uranium 8.26 8.05 8.15 9.54 8.49 9.44
Hydropower 3.11 2.67 2.84 2.86 2.90 2.92
Biomass 3.90 3.78 5.08 5.27 5.61 6.96
Other renewable energy 1.70 1.97 3.09 2.32 3.89 3.84
Other 0.80 0.41 0.24 0.85 0.24 0.89
Total 78.35 79.15 97.36 91.29 102.09 98.46
Net imports (quadrillion Btu)
Petroleum and other liquid fuelsa 18.78 16.55 11.41 15.89 13.65 15.99
Natural gas (- indicates exports) 2.03 1.58 -3.41 -1.56 -5.81 -3.55
Coal/other (- indicates exports) -2.32 -2.86 -3.16 -3.02 -3.69 -2.95
Total 18.49 15.26 4.85 11.31 4.15 9.49
Energy consumption by fuel (quadrillion Btu)
Petroleum and other liquids fuelsa 36.56 35.87 36.28 36.87 35.35 36.07
Natural gas 24.91 26.20 28.97 27.28 32.32 29.83
Coal 19.62 17.34 19.03 19.35 18.75 20.35
Nuclear/Uranium 8.26 8.05 8.15 9.54 8.49 9.44
Hydropower 3.11 2.67 2.84 2.86 2.90 2.92
Biomass 2.60 2.53 3.74 3.82 4.26 4.91
Other renewable energy 1.70 1.97 3.09 2.32 3.89 3.84
Other 0.35 0.39 0.35 0.30 0.35 0.29
Total 97.11 95.02 102.45 102.34 106.31 107.64
Energy consumption by sector, including loses in electricity generation (quadrillion Btu)b
Residential 21.39 20.10 20.58 21.08 21.48 23.08
Commerical 18.05 17.61 18.77 19.04 20.88 21.13
Industrial 30.46 30.54 37.43 35.46 38.33 36.16
Transportation 27.21 26.77 25.67 26.75 25.62 27.27
Total 97.11 95.02 102.45 102.34 106.31 107.64
Petroleum and other liquid fuels (million barrels per day)
Domestic crude oil production 5.66 6.49 9.00 6.79 7.48 6.13
Other domestic production 4.71 4.60 5.14 5.63 5.22 5.83
Net Imports 8.57 7.50 5.12 7.08 6.02 7.00
Consumption 18.92 18.49 19.27 19.50 18.73 18.95
Natural gas (trillion cubic feet)
Dry gas production + supplemental gas 22.61 24.12 31.93 28.65 37.61 33.21
Net imports (- indicates exports) 1.96 1.51 -3.41 -1.58 -5.80 -3.55
Consumption 24.38 25.64 28.35 26.87 31.63 29.54
Coal (million short tons)
Production and waste coal 1,109 1,027 1,128 1,134 1,139 1,195
Net exports 96 118 135 124 160 123
Consumption 1,003 891 993 1,010 979 1,071
Prices (2012) dollars
Brent spot crude oil (dollars per barrel) 113.24 111.65 108.99 119.45 141.46 165.57
West Texas Intermediate spot crude oil (dollars per million Btu) 96.55 94.12 106.99 117.41 139.46 163.54
Natural gas at Henry Hub (dollars per short ton) 4.07 2.75 5.23 4.96 7.65 7.97
Domestic coal at minemouth (dollars per short ton) 41.74 39.94 49.67 52.94 59.16 62.37
Average electricity price (cents per kilowatthour) 10.01 9.8 10.1 9.7 11.1 11.0
Economic indicators
Real gross domestic product (billion 2005 dollars) 13,299 13,593 18,769 18,985 26,670 27,277
GDP chain-type price index (2005 = 1.000) 1,134 1,154 1,421 1,429 1,913 1,871
Real disposable personal income (billion 2005 dollars) 10,150 10,304 14,162 14,259 19,724 19,785
Value of industrial shipments (billion 2005 dollars) 5,926 6,147 8,778 8,548 10,994 10,616
Primary energy intensity (thousand Btu per 2005 dollar of GDP) 7.30 6.99 5.46 5.39 3.99 3.95
Population (millions) 312.3 314.6 347.0 356.5 380.5 404.4
Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions (million metric tons) 5,498 5,290 5,526 5,501 5,599 5,691

aIncludes petroleum-derived fuels and non-petroleum-derived fuels, such as ethanol and biodiesel, and coal-based synthetic liquids. Petroleum coke, which is a solid, is included. Also included are natural gas plant liquids and crude oil consumed as a fuel.
bElectric power sector consumption is distributed to the end-use sectors.
Notes: Quantities reported in quadrillion Btu are derived from historical volumes and assumed thermal conversion factors. Other production includes liquid hydrogen, methanol, and some inputs to refineries. Net imports of petroleum include crude oil, petroleum products, unfinished oils, alcohols, ethers, and blending components. Other net imports include coal coke and electricity. Both coal consumption and coal production include waste coal consumed in the electric power and industrial sectors.
Sources: AEO2014 National Energy Modeling System, run REF2014.D102413A; and AEO2013 National Energy Modeling System, run REF2013.D102312A.

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