U.S. Energy Information Administration - EIA - Independent Statistics and Analysis
‹ Analysis & Projections
Annual Energy Outlook 2013
Issues in Focus
The topics explored in this section represent current and emerging issues in energy markets; but many of the topics discussed in AEOs published in recent years also remain relevant today. See links below to previous year's Issues in Focus.
|No sunset and extended policies cases
EIA updates a discussion included in a number of previous AEOs that compared the results of the Reference case to two cases with different assumptions about the future course of existing energy policies. One case assumes the elimination of sunset provisions in existing energy policies; that is, the policies are assumed not to sunset as they would under current law. The other case assumes the extension or expansion of a selected group of existing policies—CAFE standards, appliance standards, and production tax credits (PTCs)—in addition to the elimination of sunset provisions.
|Oil price and production trends in AEO2013
The key factors determining long-term supply, demand, and prices for petroleum and other liquids can be summarized in four broad categories: the economics of non-OPEC petroleum liquids supply; OPEC investment and production decisions; the economics of other liquids supply; and world demand for petroleum and other liquids. To reflect the significant uncertainty associated with future oil prices, EIA develops three price cases that examine the potential impacts of different oil price paths on U.S. energy markets by adjusting the four key factors described above.
| U.S. reliance on imported liquid fuels in alternative scenarios
The decline in net import dependence since 2005 has resulted from several disparate factors, and continued changes in those and other factors will determine how this indicator evolves in the future. In this article EIA discusses two alternate cases (Low Oil and Gas Resources and High Oil and Gas Resources) in which only the supply assumptions are varied, and two cases (Low/No Net Imports and High Net Imports) in which both supply and demand assumptions change. Key questions include:
|Competition between coal and natural gas in the electric power sector
There is significant uncertainty about future coal and natural prices, as well as about future growth in electricity demand, which determines the need for new generating capacity. Alternative cases with higher and lower coal and natural gas prices and variations in the rate of electricity demand growth are used to examine the potential impacts of those uncertainties. The alternative cases illustrate the influence of fuel prices and demand on dispatch and capacity planning decisions.
|Nuclear power in AEO2013
This article discusses the projections for nuclear power in AEO2013 and includes several alternative cases that examine the impacts of different assumptions about the long-term operation of existing nuclear power plants, new builds, deployment of new technologies, and the impacts on electricity markets of different assumptions about future nuclear capacity
|Effect of natural gas liquids growth
This discussion examines recent changes in U.S. NGL markets and how they might evolve under several scenarios. The future disposition of U.S. NGL supplies, particularly in international markets, is also discussed