Northeastern Winter Natural Gas and Electricity Alert

Release date: January 25, 2013

Northeastern cold snap likely to ease after today

Temperature: Both NYC and Boston expect continuing cold temperatures during the day today. Beginning tonight, temperatures are forecast to be moderate, with lows of 18°F in NYC and 15°F in Boston. Next week is expected to be milder.

Natural gas demand: Bentek forecasts that demand will remain at high levels through today.

Natural gas constraints & LNG: Most pipelines from the west and south into New England remain constrained today (Iroquois is at 91% because some of the gas that feeds it is flowing to Eastern Canada). Flows on the marginal pipeline into NYC (Texas Eastern - TETCo) are constrained at key points. Flows of LNG stored at Canaport into New England are scheduled to be 571 MMcf/d today (down over 250 MMcf from yesterday).

Natural gas prices: Prices are well over $30/MMBtu in both New England and NYC, the highest level of the winter and, for New England, the highest since January 2004. Prices are also somewhat elevated (about $13/MMBtu) just west and south of New York, but remain below $4/MMBtu in the rest of the country.

Electricity prices: Day-ahead electricity prices today are higher than yesterday, reflecting the continuing rise in natural gas prices. Gas prices are now high enough that it may be economically attractive to use oil for power generation in some cases. Real-time prices in NYC and Long Island were relatively orderly yesterday, unlike on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Pipeline notices: Algonquin and TETCo are requiring hourly scheduling from generators. Algonquin and Iroquois will issue operational flow orders (OFOs), restricting unscheduled service as necessary.

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