U.S. Energy Information Administration logo
Skip to sub-navigation

EIA is continuing normal publication schedules and data collection until further notice.

Press Room

Glossary › FAQS ›

U.S. ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION
WASHINGTON DC 20585

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
October 15, 2025

EIA expects U.S. household heating costs will vary based on retail prices of different heating fuels this winter

In its 2025 Winter Fuels Outlook, EIA forecasts U.S. households heated by natural gas will pay about the same to heat their homes as they did last winter. On average, EIA expects households heated by electricity to pay more to heat their homes and households heated by propane or heating oil to pay less to heat their homes this winter than last winter.

Winter weather and residential energy expenditures (November 2025-March 2026)

The average household’s total winter heating cost will be driven primarily by the retail price of its primary heating fuel: natural gas, electricity, propane, or heating oil.

The Winter Fuels Outlook includes forecasts for energy prices, fuel consumed for heating, and total winter season expenditures for heat at the national and regional levels. The forecasts include a base case and side cases considering weather that is 10% colder or 10% warmer than forecast.

In EIA’s colder weather case, the forecast cost to heat a household this winter is higher than last winter for all heating sources. In the warmer weather case, the average heating cost is lower this winter for natural gas, propane, and heating oil, but households heated primarily by electricity will pay about the same as they did last winter in EIA’s forecast because of higher forecast electricity prices.

The Winter Fuels Outlook forecasts are highly uncertain, both because weather can change dramatically over the five-month winter season and because commodity prices can be volatile. EIA will update the Winter Fuels Outlook forecasts every month through March 2026 to reflect changes in commodity prices and temperatures.

The product described in this press release was prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. By law, EIA’s data, analysis, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the U.S. government. The views in the product and this press release therefore should not be construed as representing those of the U.S. Department of Energy or other federal agencies.

EIA Press Contact: Chris Higginbotham, EIAMedia@eia.gov