U.S. Energy Information Administration - EIA - Independent Statistics and Analysis
Short-Term Energy Outlook
U.S. Economic Assumptions
Recent Economic Indicators
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that real GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.3% in the second quarter of 2015. The growth of real GDP was broad-based and reflected positive contributions from consumption, exports, state and local government spending, and residential fixed investment. The estimate of growth in the first quarter of 2015 was also revised up to 0.6%; the previous estimate was -0.2%.
EIA used the July 2015 version of the IHS macroeconomic model with EIA's energy price forecasts as model inputs to develop the economic projections in the current STEO.
Production, Income, and Employment
Forecast real GDP growth reaches 2.2% in 2015 and rises to 3.0% in 2016. The 2015 growth is above the 2.0% forecast in last month's STEO, and the 2016 growth is also above the 2.8% July forecast. Real disposable income grows by 3.5% in 2015, the same as in the July forecast, and by 2.9% in 2016. Total industrial production grows at 1.8% in 2015 and 3.3% in 2016. Projected growth in nonfarm employment averages 2.1% in 2015 and 1.5% in 2016.
Forecast private real fixed investment growth averages 4.7% and 7.3% in 2015 and 2016, respectively, led by equipment in 2015 and 2016 and by equipment and structures in 2016. Real consumption expenditures grow faster than real GDP in 2015, at 3.0%, and the same as real GDP in 2016 at 3.0%. Durable goods expenditures drive consumption spending in both years. Export growth is 2.2% and 4.6% over the same two years, while import growth is 6.0% in 2015 and 2016. Total government expenditures rise by 0.9% in 2015 and by 0.8% in 2016.
|U.S. Economic Assumptions|
|2013||2014||2015 projected||2016 projected|
|Economic Output, Income, and Expenditures||(billion chained 2009 dollars)|
|Real Gross Domestic Product||15710||16086||16442||16932|
|percent change from prior year||2.2||2.4||2.2||3.0|
|Real Disposable Personal Income||11651||11943||12360||12715|
|percent change from prior year||-0.2||2.5||3.5||2.9|
|Real Personal Consumption Expenditures||10700||10969||11300||11636|
|Real Fixed Investment||2479||2612||2734||2934|
|Business Inventory Change||74.05||82.05||64.21||59.09|
|Production and Price Indexes|
|Manufacturing Production Index (2007=100)||97.9||101.6||104.0||108.3|
|percent change from prior year||2.9||3.8||2.4||4.1|
|Consumer Price Index (1982-1984=1.00)||2.33||2.37||2.37||2.42|
|Producer Price Index: All Commodities (1982=1.00)||2.03||2.05||1.92||1.95|
|Producer Price Index: Petroleum (1982=1.00)||2.95||2.78||1.79||1.86|
|GDP Implicit Price Deflator (2005=100)||106.7||108.3||109.6||111.9|
Interactive Data Viewers
|Table 1. U.S. Energy Markets Summary|
|Table 9a. U.S. Macroeconomic Indicators and CO2 Emissions|
|Table 9b. U.S. Regional Macroeconomic Data|
|U.S. Annual Energy Expenditures||XLSX||PNG|
|U.S. Total Industrial Production Index||XLSX||PNG|
|U.S. Disposable Income||XLSX||PNG|