U.S. Energy Information Administration - EIA - Independent Statistics and Analysis
Short-Term Energy Outlook
U.S. Economic Assumptions
Recent Economic Indicators
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that real gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an annual rate of 5.0% in the third quarter of 2014. This rate was an upward revision from its earlier estimate of 3.9% growth because personal consumption expenditures and nonresidential fixed investment increased more than previously estimated.
EIA used the December 2014 version of the IHS macroeconomic model with EIA's energy price forecasts as model inputs to develop the economic projections in the STEO.
Production, Income and Employment
Forecast real GDP growth reaches 2.5% in 2015 and declines slightly to 2.4% in 2016. Growth is expected to rise in 2015 because of greater business investment spending, increases in consumer purchases, and recent declines in gasoline prices. However, a stronger dollar and lower demand from slower-growing economies are expected to reduce export growth and raise import growth. Real disposable income grows by 2.8% in 2015, above the 2.4% forecast last month, and by 2.7% in 2016. Total industrial production grows at 2.3% in 2015 and 3.3% in 2016. Projected growth in nonfarm employment averages 1.8% in 2015 and 1.3% in 2016.
Forecast private real fixed investment growth averages 4.8% and 5.8% in 2015 and 2016, respectively, led by equipment in 2015 and 2016 and by equipment and structures in 2016. Real consumption expenditures grow faster than real GDP in 2015 and 2016, at 2.8% and 2.7%, respectively. Durable goods expenditures drive consumption spending in both years. Export growth is 3.1% and 4.0% over the same two years, while import growth is 3.6% in 2015 and 6.1% in 2016. Total government expenditures rise 0.5% in both years.
|U.S. Economic Assumptions|
|2013||2014||2015 projected||2016 projected|
|Economic Output, Income, and Expenditures||(billion chained 2009 dollars)|
|Real Gross Domestic Product||15710||16062||16471||16870|
|percent change from prior year||2.2||2.2||2.5||2.4|
|Real Disposable Personal Income||11651||11929||12265||12596|
|percent change from prior year||-0.2||2.4||2.8||2.7|
|Real Personal Consumption Expenditures||10700||10944||11254||11558|
|Real Fixed Investment||2479||2609||2735||2894|
|Business Inventory Change||74.05||80.32||61.36||55.82|
|Production and Price Indexes|
|Manufacturing Production Index (2007=100)||97.9||101.6||104.5||107.8|
|percent change from prior year||2.9||3.8||2.9||3.1|
|Consumer Price Index (1982-1984=1.00)||2.33||2.37||2.38||2.44|
|Producer Price Index: All Commodities (1982=1.00)||2.03||2.06||2.00||2.06|
|Producer Price Index: Petroleum (1982=1.00)||2.95||2.76||1.75||2.15|
|GDP Implicit Price Deflator (2005=100)||106.7||108.5||110.7||112.8|
Interactive Data Viewers
|Table 1. U.S. Energy Markets Summary|
|Table 9a. U.S. Macroeconomic Indicators and CO2 Emissions|
|Table 9b. U.S. Regional Macroeconomic Data|
|U.S. Annual Energy Expenditures||XLSX||PNG|
|U.S. Total Industrial Production Index||XLSX||PNG|
|U.S. Disposable Income||XLSX||PNG|