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Short-Term Energy and Summer Fuels Outlook

Release Date: April 12, 2016  |  Next Release Date: May 10, 2016  |  Full Report    |   Text Only   |   All Tables   |   All Figures

U.S. Economic Assumptions

Recent Economic Indicators

The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that real GDP increased at an annual rate of 1.4% in the fourth quarter of 2015, up from the previous estimate of 1.0%. The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures, residential fixed investment, and federal government spending.

EIA used the March 2016 version of the IHS macroeconomic model with EIA's energy price forecasts as model inputs to develop the economic projections in the STEO.

Production, Income, and Employment

Forecast real GDP growth is 2.1% in 2016-below the 2.2% forecast in last month's STEO-and 2.9% in 2017. Real disposable income grows by 3.0% in 2016 and by 3.4% in 2017. Total industrial production falls by 0.9% in 2016, but rises by 2.8% in 2017. Projected growth in nonfarm employment averages 1.7% in 2016 and 1.4% in 2017.

Expenditures

Forecast private real fixed investment growth averages 3.6% and 6.2% in 2016 and 2017, respectively. Real consumption expenditures grow faster than real GDP, at 2.7% in 2016 and 3.2% in 2017. Export growth is 1.6% and 4.7% over the same two years, and import growth is 3.2% in 2016 and 6.6% in 2017. Total government expenditures rise 2.1% in 2016 and 0.3% in 2017.

U.S. Economic Assumptions
  2014 2015 2016 2017
Economic Output, Income, and Expenditures (billion chained 2009 dollars)
Real Gross Domestic Product 15962 16345 16694 17178
percent change from prior year 2.4 2.4 2.1 2.9
Real Disposable Personal Income 11836 12256 12627 13050
percent change from prior year 2.7 3.5 3.0 3.4
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures 10876 11210 11516 11885
Real Fixed Investment 2634 2740 2840 3014
Business Inventory Change 77.10 110.18 33.73 41.60
Employment (millions)
Non-Farm Employment 139.0 142.0 144.3 146.3
Commercial Employment 95.8 98.3 100.3 101.7
Production and Price Indexes
Manufacturing Production Index (2007=100) 103.9 106.2 106.5 109.5
percent change from prior year 2.8 2.2 0.3 2.9
Consumer Price Index (1982-1984=1.00) 2.37 2.37 2.39 2.44
Producer Price Index: All Commodities (1982=1.00) 2.05 1.90 1.85 1.91
Producer Price Index: Petroleum (1982=1.00) 2.78 1.76 1.28 1.40
GDP Implicit Price Deflator (2005=100) 108.7 109.8 111.5 113.7

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