U.S. Energy Information Administration - EIA - Independent Statistics and Analysis
Short-Term Energy Outlook
U.S. Economic Assumptions
EIA uses the IHS/Global Insight (GI) macroeconomic model with EIA's energy price forecasts as model inputs to develop the economic projections in the STEO. The GI simulation assumes that the spending cuts mandated in the Budget Control Act of 2011 (sequestration) are replaced by a combination of tax and spending changes that are implemented in 2014.
U.S. Current Trends
Recent indicators point to positive growth in U.S. manufacturing output. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its national Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) in October rose from 56.2 to 56.4 (a value above 50 indicates expansion). ISM's Chicago PMI rose from 55.7 to 65.9 in October, the highest reading since March 2011. And the Federal Reserve Board also reported that U.S. industrial production rose in September by 0.6%, up from a rise of 0.4% in August. Employment gains, however, remain subdued. The U.S. Department of Labor reported that initial weekly unemployment insurance claims were 336,000 in the week ending November 2, a decrease of 9,000 from the previous week's figure, and the four-week moving average remained above 348,000.
U.S. Production and Income
Forecast U.S. real GDP grows by 1.5% in 2013 and 2.5% in 2014. Year-on-year real GDP growth begins to accelerate in the second half of 2014, eventually rising to 3.0% in the fourth quarter of 2014. Forecast real disposable income increases 0.6% in 2013 and 3.2% in 2014. Total industrial production grows almost one percentage point faster than real GDP in 2013 at 2.4%, and its projected growth of 3.2% in 2014 is still well above the growth rate of real GDP.
Private real fixed investment growth averages 4.5% and 7.3% over 2013 and 2014, respectively. Real consumption expenditures grow faster than real GDP in 2013, at 1.9%, and match the rate of real GDP growth in 2014, at 2.5%. Export growth more than doubles from 2.2% to 4.9% over the same two years. Government expenditures fall 2.2% in 2013, and rise by 0.2% in 2014.
U.S. Employment, Housing, and Prices
The unemployment rate in the forecast averages 7.5% over 2013, and gradually falls to 6.7% at the end of 2014. This is accompanied by nonfarm employment growth averaging 1.6% in 2013 and 1.8% in 2014. Consistent with an improving housing sector, housing starts grow an average of 16.9% and 26.1% in 2013 and 2014, respectively. Both consumer and producer price indexes continue to increase at a moderate pace.
|U.S. Economic Assumptions|
|2011||2012||2013 projected||2014 projected|
|Economic Output, Income, and Expenditures||(billion chained 2009 dollars)|
|Real Gross Domestic Product||15052||15471||15705||16103|
|percent change from prior year||1.8||2.8||1.5||2.5|
|Real Disposable Personal Income||11325||11552||11623||11991|
|percent change from prior year||2.4||2.0||0.6||3.2|
|Real Personal Consumption Expenditures||10291||10518||10714||10980|
|Real Fixed Investment||2185||2365||2471||2650|
|Business Inventory Change||36.43||66.08||67.84||50.91|
|Production and Price Indexes|
|Manufacturing Production Index (2007=100)||91.1||95.0||97.2||100.3|
|percent change from prior year||3.6||4.2||2.4||3.2|
|Consumer Price Index (1982-1984=1.00)||2.25||2.30||2.33||2.37|
|Producer Price Index: All Commodities (1982=1.00)||2.01||2.02||2.04||2.05|
|Producer Price Index: Petroleum (1982=1.00)||2.99||3.07||2.97||2.88|
|GDP Implicit Price Deflator (2005=100)||103.2||105.0||106.4||108.2|
Interactive Data Viewers
|Table 1. U.S. Energy Markets Summary|
|Table 9a. U.S. Macroeconomic Indicators and CO2 Emissions|
|Table 9b. U.S. Regional Macroeconomic Data|
|U.S. Annual Energy Expenditures||XLS||PNG|
|U.S. Total Industrial Production Index||XLS||PNG|
|U.S. Disposable Income||XLS||PNG|