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Short-Term Energy Outlook

Release Date: February 10, 2015  |  Next Release Date: March 10, 2015  |  Full Report    |   Text Only   |   All Tables   |   All Figures

U.S. Economic Assumptions

Recent Economic Indicators

The Commerce Dapartment's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that real GDP grew at an annualized rate of 2.6% from the third quarter to the fourth quarter of 2014. The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures and investment. Growth in the third quarter of 2014 was 5.0%.

EIA used the January 2015 version of the IHS macroeconomic model with EIA's energy price forecasts as model inputs to develop the economic projections in the STEO.

Production and Income and Employment

After expanding by 2.4% in 2014, real GDP is projected to grow by 3.1% in 2015 and by 2.5% in 2016. Growth is expected to rise in 2015 because of higher business investment spending, increases in consumer purchases, and recent declines in gasoline prices. However, a stronger dollar and lower demand from slower-growing economies are expected to reduce export growth and raise import growth. Real disposable income is projected to grow by 3.3% in 2015 (compared with 2.8% forecast last month) and by 2.6% in 2016. Projected total industrial production grows by 3.4% in both 2015 and 2016. Projected growth in nonfarm employment averages 2.1% in 2015 and 1.7% in 2016.

Expenditures

Forecast private real fixed investment growth averages 6.0% and 6.6% in 2015 and 2016, respectively. Real consumption expenditures grow faster than real GDP in 2015 and 2016, at 3.5% and 2.9%, respectively. Durable goods expenditures drive consumption spending in both years. Export growth is 3.9% and 3.2% over the same two years, while import growth is 5.3% in both 2015 and 2016. Total government expenditures rise by 0.6% in 2015 and 0.4% in 2016.

U.S. Economic Assumptions
  2013 2014 2015 2016
Economic Output, Income, and Expenditures (billion chained 2009 dollars)
Real Gross Domestic Product 15710 16089 16590 17008
percent change from prior year 2.2 2.4 3.1 2.5
Real Disposable Personal Income 11651 11933 12331 12650
percent change from prior year -0.2 2.4 3.3 2.6
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures 10700 10968 11348 11673
Real Fixed Investment 2479 2610 2766 2948
Business Inventory Change 74.05 85.66 82.83 53.22
Employment (millions)
Non-Farm Employment 136.4 138.9 141.8 144.2
Commercial Employment 93.8 95.8 98.3 100.0
Production and Price Indexes
Manufacturing Production Index (2007=100) 97.9 101.7 106.2 109.6
percent change from prior year 2.9 3.9 4.4 3.3
Consumer Price Index (1982-1984=1.00) 2.33 2.37 2.37 2.43
Producer Price Index: All Commodities (1982=1.00) 2.03 2.06 1.98 2.05
Producer Price Index: Petroleum (1982=1.00) 2.95 2.77 1.75 2.15
GDP Implicit Price Deflator (2005=100) 106.7 108.4 110.4 112.6

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