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Short-Term Energy Outlook

Release Date: February 9, 2016  |  Next Release Date: March 8, 2016  |  Full Report    |   Text Only   |   All Tables   |   All Figures

U.S. Economic Assumptions

Recent Economic Indicators

The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that real GDP real GDP increased at an annual rate of 0.7% in the fourth quarter of 2015, down from 2.0% growth in the third quarter. The fourth quarter increase reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures, residential fixed investment, and federal government spending.

EIA used the January 2016 version of the IHS macroeconomic model with EIA's energy price forecasts as model inputs to develop the economic projections in the STEO.

Production, Income, and Employment

Forecast real GDP grows at 2.5% in 2016 and 3.1% in 2017, up from 2.4% in 2015. Real disposable income grows by 3.1% in 2016 and by 3.3% in 2017. Total industrial production grows by 0.4% in 2016 and by 3.4% in 2017. Projected growth in nonfarm employment averages 1.6% in 2016 and 1.3% in 2017.

Expenditures

Forecast private real fixed investment growth is 5.7% and 6.5% in 2016 and 2017, respectively. Real consumption expenditures grow faster than real GDP at 2.9% in 2016 and at 3.4% in 2017. Durable goods expenditures drive consumption spending in both years. Forecast export growth is 2.3% in 2016 and 5.4% in 2017, and import growth is 4.7% and 8.1% over the same period. Total government expenditures rise by 2.3% in 2016 and by 0.4% in 2017.

U.S. Economic Assumptions
  2014 2015 2016 2017
Economic Output, Income, and Expenditures (billion chained 2009 dollars)
Real Gross Domestic Product 15962 16346 16759 17283
percent change from prior year 2.4 2.4 2.5 3.1
Real Disposable Personal Income 11836 12258 12637 13060
percent change from prior year 2.7 3.6 3.1 3.3
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures 10876 11211 11536 11932
Real Fixed Investment 2634 2750 2907 3097
Business Inventory Change 77.10 98.89 33.21 63.49
Employment (millions)
Non-Farm Employment 139.0 142.0 144.3 146.2
Commercial Employment 95.8 98.3 100.2 101.6
Production and Price Indexes
Manufacturing Production Index (2007=100) 103.9 106.2 107.3 111.0
percent change from prior year 2.8 2.2 1.1 3.5
Consumer Price Index (1982-1984=1.00) 2.37 2.37 2.40 2.46
Producer Price Index: All Commodities (1982=1.00) 2.05 1.90 1.89 1.94
Producer Price Index: Petroleum (1982=1.00) 2.78 1.76 1.34 1.62
GDP Implicit Price Deflator (2005=100) 108.7 109.8 111.8 114.0

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