U.S. Energy Information Administration - EIA - Independent Statistics and Analysis
Short-Term Energy Outlook
U.S. Economic Assumptions
Recent Economic Indicators
The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that real GDP increased at an annual rate of 1.5% in the third quarter of 2015, following growth of 3.9% in the second quarter. The increase in real GDP in the third quarter reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures, state and local government spending, and fixed investment. The primary negative contribution was a decrease in private inventory investment.
EIA used the October 2015 version of the IHS macroeconomic model with EIA's energy price forecasts as model inputs to develop the economic projections in the STEO.
Production, Income, and Emplyment
Forecast real GDP growth reaches 2.5% in 2015 and 2.7% in 2016-the same as forecast last month for 2015, but above the 2.5% forecast last month for 2016. Real disposable income grows by 3.3% in 2015 and by 3.1% in 2016. Total industrial production grows at 1.4% in 2015 and 1.8% in 2016. Projected growth in nonfarm employment averages 2.1% in 2015 and 1.4% in 2016.
Forecast private real fixed investment growth averages 4.7% and 7.1% in 2015 and 2016, respectively. Real consumption expenditures grow faster than real GDP, at 3.2% in 2015 and at 3.0% in 2016. Durable goods expenditures drive consumption spending in both years. Export growth is 1.7% and 3.4% over the same two years, while import growth is 5.8% in 2015 and 5.3% in 2016. Total government expenditures rise 0.7% in 2015 and 0.6% in 2016.
|U.S. Economic Assumptions|
|2013||2014||2015 projected||2016 projected|
|Economic Output, Income, and Expenditures||(billion chained 2009 dollars)|
|Real Gross Domestic Product||15583||15962||16357||16794|
|percent change from prior year||1.5||2.4||2.5||2.7|
|Real Disposable Personal Income||11523||11836||12222||12597|
|percent change from prior year||-1.4||2.7||3.3||3.1|
|Real Personal Consumption Expenditures||10590||10876||11225||11564|
|Real Fixed Investment||2502||2634||2758||2954|
|Business Inventory Change||71.80||77.10||100.17||52.72|
|Production and Price Indexes|
|Manufacturing Production Index (2007=100)||101.1||103.9||106.1||108.6|
|percent change from prior year||1.1||2.8||2.2||2.4|
|Consumer Price Index (1982-1984=1.00)||2.33||2.37||2.37||2.42|
|Producer Price Index: All Commodities (1982=1.00)||2.03||2.05||1.92||1.95|
|Producer Price Index: Petroleum (1982=1.00)||2.95||2.78||1.77||1.79|
|GDP Implicit Price Deflator (2005=100)||106.9||108.7||109.9||112.2|
Interactive Data Viewers
|Table 1. U.S. Energy Markets Summary|
|Table 9a. U.S. Macroeconomic Indicators and CO2 Emissions|
|Table 9b. U.S. Regional Macroeconomic Data|
|U.S. Annual Energy Expenditures||XLSX||PNG|
|U.S. Total Industrial Production Index||XLSX||PNG|
|U.S. Disposable Income||XLSX||PNG|