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Short-Term Energy Outlook

Release Date: July 7, 2015  |  Next Release Date: August 11, 2015  |  Full Report    |   Text Only   |   All Tables   |   All Figures

U.S. Economic Assumptions

Recent Economic Indicators

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that real GDP decreased at an annual rate of 0.2% in the first quarter of 2015, above the previous estimate of a 0.7% decrease. With this estimate for the first quarter, exports decreased less than previously estimated and personal consumption expenditures and imports increased more.

EIA used the June 2015 version of the IHS macroeconomic model with EIA's energy price forecasts as model inputs to develop the economic projections in the STEO.

Production, Income, and Employment

Forecast real GDP growth is 2.0% in 2015 and rises to 2.8% in 2016. The 2015 growth is below the 2.2% forecast last month, while the 2016 growth is above the 2.6% forecast of last month. Real disposable income grows by 3.5% in 2015, above the 3.3% forecast last month, and by 2.5% in 2016. Total industrial production grows at 1.7% in 2015 and 3.4% in 2016. Projected growth in nonfarm employment averages 2.0% in 2015 and 1.4% in 2016.

Expenditures

Forecast private real fixed investment growth averages 4.4% and 7.6% in 2015 and 2016, respectively, led by equipment in 2015 and 2016 and by equipment and structures in 2016. Real consumption expenditures grow faster than real GDP in 2015, at 2.8%, and below real GDP in 2016 at 2.7%. Durable goods expenditures drive consumption spending in both years. Export growth is 1.6% and 4.9% over the same two years, while import growth is 5.4% in 2015 and 5.8% in 2016. Total government expenditures rise 0.8% in 2015 and 0.7% in 2016.

U.S. Economic Assumptions
  2013 2014 2015 2016
Economic Output, Income, and Expenditures (billion chained 2009 dollars)
Real Gross Domestic Product 15710 16086 16408 16874
percent change from prior year 2.2 2.4 2.0 2.8
Real Disposable Personal Income 11651 11943 12358 12672
percent change from prior year -0.2 2.5 3.5 2.5
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures 10700 10969 11273 11573
Real Fixed Investment 2479 2612 2726 2932
Business Inventory Change 74.05 82.05 66.86 57.98
Employment (millions)
Non-Farm Employment 136.4 139.0 141.8 143.8
Commercial Employment 93.8 95.8 98.1 99.7
Production and Price Indexes
Manufacturing Production Index (2007=100) 97.9 101.6 103.9 108.0
percent change from prior year 2.9 3.8 2.2 4.0
Consumer Price Index (1982-1984=1.00) 2.33 2.37 2.37 2.42
Producer Price Index: All Commodities (1982=1.00) 2.03 2.05 1.93 1.97
Producer Price Index: Petroleum (1982=1.00) 2.95 2.78 1.90 2.03
GDP Implicit Price Deflator (2005=100) 106.7 108.3 109.5 111.9

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