U.S. Energy Information Administration - EIA - Independent Statistics and Analysis
Short-Term Energy Outlook
U.S. Economic Assumptions
Recent Economic Indicators
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that real gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an annualized rate of 3.9% from the second to third quarters. This was an upward revision from their earlier estimate of 3.5% growth because private inventory investment decreased less than previously estimated, and both personal consumption expenditures and nonresidential fixed investment increased more. Results from other economic data have been relatively positive as well. The Census Bureau reported that new home sales in October rose 0.7% over September 2014 levels, and 1.8% over October 2013 levels. Census also reported that new orders for durable goods rose 0.4% from August to September, but fell 0.9% excluding transportation. Real personal consumption expenditures rose 0.2% from September to October according to the BEA, and real personal disposable income rose 0.1% during this time.
EIA used the November 2014 version of the IHS/Global Insight macroeconomic model with EIA's energy price forecasts as model inputs to develop the economic projections in the STEO.
Production and Income
Real GDP growth reaches 2.2% in 2014 and rises to 2.4% in 2015, below the 2.3% and 2.7% forecast for 2014 and 2015 last month. Expected growth in 2014 is lower in this month's forecast because of less investment spending. Real GDP growth is lower in 2015 as a result of reduced exports-due to a stronger dollar and less demand from slower-growing economies. Real disposable income grows 2.7% in 2014, just above the 2.6% forecast last month, and total industrial production grows at 4% in 2014. In 2015 real disposable income grows at 2.4% and industrial production grows at 2.3%.
Private real fixed investment growth averages 4.9% and 5.3% in 2014 and 2015, respectively, led by industrial and transportation equipment in 2014 and by a broad array of equipment categories in 2015. Real consumption expenditures grow at 2.2% in 2014, the same rate as real GDP, but rise above the real GDP growth rate in 2015 to 2.5%. Durable goods expenditures drive consumption spending in both years. Export growth is 3.2% and 2.9% over 2014 and 2015, respectively, while import growth is 3.4% and 2.6% over the same two years. Total government expenditures fall by 0.2% in 2014, but increase by 0.2% in 2015.
U.S. Employment, Housing, and Prices
Projected growth in nonfarm employment averages 1.8% in both 2014 and 2015. This is accompanied by a gradually declining unemployment rate that reaches 5.7% at the end of 2015. The employment growth in 2014 and 2015 is the same as projected last month, while the decline in the unemployment rate has slowed. Housing starts grow at an average of 7.4% and 16.6% in 2014 and 2015, respectively. Both consumer and producer price indexes increase at a moderate pace, and wages continue to show modest gains.
|U.S. Economic Assumptions|
|2012||2013||2014 projected||2015 projected|
|Economic Output, Income, and Expenditures||(billion chained 2009 dollars)|
|Real Gross Domestic Product||15369||15710||16052||16436|
|percent change from prior year||2.3||2.2||2.2||2.4|
|Real Disposable Personal Income||11676||11651||11962||12249|
|percent change from prior year||3.0||-0.2||2.7||2.4|
|Real Personal Consumption Expenditures||10450||10700||10938||11210|
|Real Fixed Investment||2368||2479||2601||2739|
|Business Inventory Change||64.85||74.05||72.26||45.22|
|Production and Price Indexes|
|Manufacturing Production Index (2007=100)||95.1||97.9||101.4||103.9|
|percent change from prior year||4.4||2.9||3.6||2.5|
|Consumer Price Index (1982-1984=1.00)||2.30||2.33||2.37||2.41|
|Producer Price Index: All Commodities (1982=1.00)||2.02||2.03||2.06||2.05|
|Producer Price Index: Petroleum (1982=1.00)||3.07||2.95||2.78||2.02|
|GDP Implicit Price Deflator (2005=100)||105.2||106.7||108.4||110.5|
Interactive Data Viewers
|Table 1. U.S. Energy Markets Summary|
|Table 9a. U.S. Macroeconomic Indicators and CO2 Emissions|
|Table 9b. U.S. Regional Macroeconomic Data|
|U.S. Annual Energy Expenditures||XLSX||PNG|
|U.S. Total Industrial Production Index||XLSX||PNG|
|U.S. Disposable Income||XLSX||PNG|