U.S. Economic Assumptions

EIA uses the IHS/Global Insight (GI) macroeconomic model with EIA's energy price forecasts as model inputs to develop the U.S. economic projections in the STEO. The GI model used in this STEO assumes that the spending cuts mandated in the Budget Control Act of 2011 (sequestration) will soon be replaced by a combination of income tax increases and spending cuts that are implemented in 2014. The GI model also assumes there will be an agreement reached to increase the amount of debt that can be issued by the U.S. Treasury (the debt ceiling) in the near term.

U.S. Current Trends

Recent economic indicators have been mixed. The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.5 percent in the first quarter of 2013 (that is, from the fourth quarter to the first quarter). This was well above the 0.4-percent growth in the final quarter of 2012, but below the expectations of many forecasters. Consumer spending and residential investment showed strong gains, while net exports and government expenditures showed quarterly reductions. The U.S. Department of Labor also reported that initial unemployment insurance claims dropped by 18,000 in the week ending April 27, 2013 to 324,000 (on a seasonally adjusted basis), down from 371,000 at the same time in 2012. Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 165,000 in April, near the average employment growth of 169,000 per month over the last 12 months. The U.S. Census Bureau reported that new orders for manufactured durable goods fell 5.7 percent from February to March, following a 4.3-percent increase from January to February. Industrial production rose by 0.4 percent in March after having increased 1.1 percent in February according to the Federal Reserve.

U.S. Production

This STEO assumes 1.8 percent U.S. real GDP growth in 2013, rising to 2.7 percent in 2014. Year-on-year real GDP growth begins to accelerate in 2014, eventually rising to 3.0 percent in its final quarter. Forecast real disposable income increases 0.9 percent in 2013 and 3.4 percent in 2014. Total industrial production grows at a faster rate than real GDP in 2013 and 2014, at 3.0 percent and 2.9 percent, respectively.

U.S. Income and Expenditures

Private fixed investment growth averages 6.7 percent and 8.2 percent over 2013 and 2014. This is driven partly by business equipment and software spending, as well as increasing expenditures on buildings. Real consumption expenditures grow faster than real GDP in 2013, at 2.1 percent, but slow below the rate of real GDP growth in 2014, at 2.3 percent. Export growth nearly doubles from 2.6 percent to 5.1 percent over the same two years. Government expenditures fall 2.6 percent in 2013, but are essentially unchanged in 2014.

U.S. Employment, Housing, and Prices

The unemployment rate in the forecast averages 7.7 percent over most of 2013, then gradually falls to 7.1 percent at the end of 2014. This is accompanied by nonfarm employment growth averaging 1.5 percent in both 2013 and 2014. Consistent with an improving housing sector, housing starts grow an average of 24 percent and 28 percent over 2013 and 2014, respectively. Both consumer and producer price indexes continue to increase at a moderate pace.