U.S. Energy Information Administration - EIA - Independent Statistics and Analysis
Short-Term Energy Outlook
U.S. Economic Assumptions
Recent Economic Indicators
The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 0.5% in the first quarter of 2016, down from an estimated 1.4% in the fourth quarter of 2015. The slowing growth in real GDP in the first quarter mainly reflects a decline in nonresidential fixed investment, slower growth in personal consumption expenditures, and lower spending by the federal government.
EIA used the April version of the IHS macroeconomic model with EIA's energy price forecasts as model inputs to develop the economic projections in the STEO.
Production, Income, and Employment
Forecast real GDP growth is 2.0% in 2016, below the 2.1% forecast in last month's STEO, and 2.9% in 2017. Forecast real disposable income grows by 2.7% in 2016 and by 3.3% in 2017. Total industrial production falls by 1.3% in 2016, and then rises by 3.3% in 2017. Projected growth in nonfarm employment averages 1.8% in 2016 and 1.5% in 2017.
Forecast private real fixed investment growth averages 2.8% and 6.3% in 2016 and 2017, respectively. Real consumption expenditures grow faster than real GDP in 2016 at 2.5%, and in 2017 at 3.2%. Forecast export growth is 1.4% and 4.6% over the same two years, while import growth is 2.3% in 2016 and 6.6% in 2017. Total government expenditures rise by 2.0% in 2016 and by 0.4% in 2017.
|U.S. Economic Assumptions|
|2014||2015||2016 projected||2017 projected|
|Economic Output, Income, and Expenditures||(billion chained 2009 dollars)|
|Real Gross Domestic Product||15962||16349||16671||17162|
|percent change from prior year||2.4||2.4||2.0||2.9|
|Real Disposable Personal Income||11836||12240||12574||12993|
|percent change from prior year||2.7||3.4||2.7||3.3|
|Real Personal Consumption Expenditures||10876||11213||11496||11867|
|Real Fixed Investment||2634||2740||2816||2993|
|Business Inventory Change||77.10||109.25||40.38||46.88|
|Production and Price Indexes|
|Manufacturing Production Index (2007=100)||102.5||103.6||103.7||107.0|
|percent change from prior year||1.3||1.1||0.1||3.2|
|Consumer Price Index (1982-1984=1.00)||2.37||2.37||2.39||2.44|
|Producer Price Index: All Commodities (1982=1.00)||2.05||1.90||1.85||1.92|
|Producer Price Index: Petroleum (1982=1.00)||2.78||1.76||1.42||1.64|
|GDP Implicit Price Deflator (2005=100)||108.7||109.8||111.4||113.6|
Interactive Data Viewers
|Table 1. U.S. Energy Markets Summary|
|Table 9a. U.S. Macroeconomic Indicators and CO2 Emissions|
|Table 9b. U.S. Regional Macroeconomic Data|
|U.S. Annual Energy Expenditures||XLSX||PNG|
|U.S. Total Industrial Production Index||XLSX||PNG|
|U.S. Disposable Income||XLSX||PNG|