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Short-Term Energy Outlook

Release Date: January 13, 2015  |  Next Release Date: February 10, 2015  |  Full Report    |   Text Only   |   All Tables   |   All Figures

U.S. Economic Assumptions

Recent Economic Indicators

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that real gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an annual rate of 5.0% in the third quarter of 2014. This rate was an upward revision from its earlier estimate of 3.9% growth because personal consumption expenditures and nonresidential fixed investment increased more than previously estimated.

EIA used the December 2014 version of the IHS macroeconomic model with EIA's energy price forecasts as model inputs to develop the economic projections in the STEO.

Production, Income and Employment

Forecast real GDP growth reaches 2.5% in 2015 and declines slightly to 2.4% in 2016. Growth is expected to rise in 2015 because of greater business investment spending, increases in consumer purchases, and recent declines in gasoline prices. However, a stronger dollar and lower demand from slower-growing economies are expected to reduce export growth and raise import growth. Real disposable income grows by 2.8% in 2015, above the 2.4% forecast last month, and by 2.7% in 2016. Total industrial production grows at 2.3% in 2015 and 3.3% in 2016. Projected growth in nonfarm employment averages 1.8% in 2015 and 1.3% in 2016.

Expenditures

Forecast private real fixed investment growth averages 4.8% and 5.8% in 2015 and 2016, respectively, led by equipment in 2015 and 2016 and by equipment and structures in 2016. Real consumption expenditures grow faster than real GDP in 2015 and 2016, at 2.8% and 2.7%, respectively. Durable goods expenditures drive consumption spending in both years. Export growth is 3.1% and 4.0% over the same two years, while import growth is 3.6% in 2015 and 6.1% in 2016. Total government expenditures rise 0.5% in both years.

U.S. Economic Assumptions
  2013 2014 2015 2016
Economic Output, Income, and Expenditures (billion chained 2009 dollars)
Real Gross Domestic Product 15710 16062 16471 16870
percent change from prior year 2.2 2.2 2.5 2.4
Real Disposable Personal Income 11651 11929 12265 12596
percent change from prior year -0.2 2.4 2.8 2.7
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures 10700 10944 11254 11558
Real Fixed Investment 2479 2609 2735 2894
Business Inventory Change 74.05 80.32 61.36 55.82
Employment (millions)
Non-Farm Employment 136.4 138.9 141.4 143.2
Commercial Employment 93.8 95.8 97.9 99.2
Production and Price Indexes
Manufacturing Production Index (2007=100) 97.9 101.6 104.5 107.8
percent change from prior year 2.9 3.8 2.9 3.1
Consumer Price Index (1982-1984=1.00) 2.33 2.37 2.38 2.44
Producer Price Index: All Commodities (1982=1.00) 2.03 2.06 2.00 2.06
Producer Price Index: Petroleum (1982=1.00) 2.95 2.76 1.75 2.15
GDP Implicit Price Deflator (2005=100) 106.7 108.5 110.7 112.8

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