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Short-Term Energy Outlook

Release Date: August 9, 2016  |  Next Release Date: September 7, 2016  |  Full Report    |   Text Only   |   All Tables   |   All Figures

U.S. Economic Assumptions

Recent Economic Indicators

The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.2% in the second quarter of 2016. Real GDP grew by 0.8% in the first quarter of 2016. The increase in real GDP in the second quarter reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures and exports.

Production, Income, and Employment

EIA used the July 2016 version of the IHS macroeconomic model with EIA's energy price forecasts as model inputs to develop the economic projections in the STEO.

Forecast real GDP growth is 1.9% in 2016, the same as forecast in last month's STEO, and it increases to 2.5% in 2017. Real disposable income grows by 3.1% in 2016 and by 2.6% in 2017. Total industrial production falls by 1.5% in 2016, but rises by 1.9% in 2017. Projected growth in nonfarm employment averages 1.7% in 2016 and 1.3% in 2017.

Expenditures

Forecast private real fixed investment growth averages 1.9% and 5.2% in 2016 and 2017, respectively. Real consumption expenditures grow faster than real GDP at 2.8% in 2016 and 2.6% in 2017. Export growth is 0.9% and 3.1% over the same two years, while import growth is 1.3% in 2016 and 4.6% in 2017. Total government expenditures rise by 1.2% in 2016 and by 1.1% in 2017.

U.S. Economic Assumptions
  2014 2015 2016 2017
Economic Output, Income, and Expenditures (billion chained 2009 dollars)
Real Gross Domestic Product 15962 16349 16656 17075
percent change from prior year 2.4 2.4 1.9 2.5
Real Disposable Personal Income 11836 12247 12621 12943
percent change from prior year 2.7 3.5 3.1 2.6
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures 10876 11213 11523 11826
Real Fixed Investment 2634 2740 2792 2938
Business Inventory Change 77.10 109.25 30.19 20.62
Employment (millions)
Non-Farm Employment 138.9 141.8 144.2 146.1
Commercial Employment 95.7 98.1 100.2 101.6
Production and Price Indexes
Manufacturing Production Index (2007=100) 102.5 103.6 103.8 105.4
percent change from prior year 1.3 1.1 0.2 1.5
Consumer Price Index (1982-1984=1.00) 2.37 2.37 2.40 2.45
Producer Price Index: All Commodities (1982=1.00) 2.05 1.90 1.87 1.93
Producer Price Index: Petroleum (1982=1.00) 2.78 1.76 1.42 1.67
GDP Implicit Price Deflator (2005=100) 108.7 109.8 111.2 113.4

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