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Short-Term Energy Outlook

Release Date: June 7, 2016  |  Next Release Date: July 12, 2016  |  Full Report    |   Text Only   |   All Tables   |   All Figures

U.S. Economic Assumptions

Recent Economic Indicators

The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 0.8% in the first quarter of 2016, up from the initial estimate of 0.5%. The increase in real GDP in the first quarter reflected contributions from personal consumption expenditures and residential fixed investment.

EIA used the May 2016 version of the IHS macroeconomic model with EIA's energy price forecasts as model inputs to develop the economic projections in the STEO.

Production, Income, and Employment

Forecast real GDP growth reaches 1.7% in 2016—below the 2.0% forecast in last month's STEO—and 3.0% in 2017. Real disposable income grows by 2.8% in 2016 and by 3.3% in 2017. Total industrial production falls by 0.9% in 2016, but rises by 3.5% in 2017. Forecast growth in nonfarm employment is 1.9% in 2016 and 1.5% in 2017.

Expenditures

Forecast private real fixed investment growth averages 1.9% and 5.8% in 2016 and 2017, respectively. Real consumption expenditures grow faster than real GDP in 2016, at 2.7%, and 2017, at 3.2%. Export growth is 0.0% and 3.6% over the same two years, while import growth is 1.9% in 2016 and 6.2% in 2017. Total government expenditures rise 1.3% in 2016 and 1.1% in 2017.

U.S. Economic Assumptions
  2014 2015 2016 2017
Economic Output, Income, and Expenditures (billion chained 2009 dollars)
Real Gross Domestic Product 15962 16349 16629 17127
percent change from prior year 2.4 2.4 1.7 3.0
Real Disposable Personal Income 11836 12240 12585 12997
percent change from prior year 2.7 3.4 2.8 3.3
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures 10876 11213 11520 11893
Real Fixed Investment 2634 2740 2793 2956
Business Inventory Change 77.10 109.25 30.42 46.22
Employment (millions)
Non-Farm Employment 138.9 141.8 144.5 146.7
Commercial Employment 95.7 98.1 100.5 102.3
Production and Price Indexes
Manufacturing Production Index (2007=100) 102.5 103.6 104.0 107.6
percent change from prior year 1.3 1.1 0.5 3.5
Consumer Price Index (1982-1984=1.00) 2.37 2.37 2.39 2.44
Producer Price Index: All Commodities (1982=1.00) 2.05 1.90 1.85 1.91
Producer Price Index: Petroleum (1982=1.00) 2.78 1.76 1.47 1.68
GDP Implicit Price Deflator (2005=100) 108.7 109.8 111.2 113.4

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