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Short-Term Energy Outlook

Release Date: September 7, 2016  |  Next Release Date: October 12, 2016  |  Full Report    |   Text Only   |   All Tables   |   All Figures

U.S. Economic Assumptions

Recent Economic Indicators

The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.1% in the second quarter of 2016. Real GDP grew by 0.8% in the first quarter of 2016. The increase in real GDP in the second quarter reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures and exports that were partly offset by private inventory investment, nonresidential and residential fixed investment, and state and local government spending.

Production, Income, and Employment

EIA used the August 2016 version of the IHS macroeconomic model with EIA's energy price forecasts as model inputs to develop the economic projections in the STEO.

Forecast real GDP grows by 1.5% in 2016—down from 1.9% forecast in last month's STEO—and by 2.6% in 2017. Real disposable income grows by 2.6% in 2016 and by 2.7% in 2017. Total industrial production falls by 1.0% in 2016, but rises by 1.6% in 2017. Projected growth in nonfarm employment averages 1.7% in 2016 and 1.3% in 2017.

Expenditures

Forecast private real fixed investment growth averages 1.0% and 5.1% in 2016 and 2017, respectively. Real consumption expenditures grow faster than real GDP at 2.7% in both years. Exports fall by 0.3% and rise by 3.1% over the same two years, while import growth is 1.2% in 2016 and 5.1% in 2017. Total government expenditures rise 1.2% in 2016 and 0.8% in 2017.

U.S. Economic Assumptions
  2014 2015 2016 2017
Economic Output, Income, and Expenditures (billion chained 2009 dollars)
Real Gross Domestic Product 15982 16397 16651 17083
percent change from prior year 2.4 2.6 1.5 2.6
Real Disposable Personal Income 11931 12343 12667 13006
percent change from prior year 3.5 3.5 2.6 2.7
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures 10869 11215 11522 11838
Real Fixed Investment 2661 2768 2796 2938
Business Inventory Change 65.45 93.43 5.40 27.64
Employment (millions)
Non-Farm Employment 138.9 141.8 144.3 146.2
Commercial Employment 95.7 98.1 100.3 101.8
Production and Price Indexes
Manufacturing Production Index (2007=100) 102.5 103.6 103.9 106.0
percent change from prior year 1.3 1.1 0.3 2.0
Consumer Price Index (1982-1984=1.00) 2.37 2.37 2.40 2.45
Producer Price Index: All Commodities (1982=1.00) 2.05 1.90 1.86 1.91
Producer Price Index: Petroleum (1982=1.00) 2.78 1.76 1.41 1.67
GDP Implicit Price Deflator (2005=100) 108.8 110.0 111.5 113.8

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