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Short-Term Energy Outlook

Release Date: May 10, 2016  |  Next Release Date: June 7, 2016  |  Full Report    |   Text Only   |   All Tables   |   All Figures

U.S. Economic Assumptions

Recent Economic Indicators

The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 0.5% in the first quarter of 2016, down from an estimated 1.4% in the fourth quarter of 2015. The slowing growth in real GDP in the first quarter mainly reflects a decline in nonresidential fixed investment, slower growth in personal consumption expenditures, and lower spending by the federal government.

EIA used the April version of the IHS macroeconomic model with EIA's energy price forecasts as model inputs to develop the economic projections in the STEO.

Production, Income, and Employment

Forecast real GDP growth is 2.0% in 2016, below the 2.1% forecast in last month's STEO, and 2.9% in 2017. Forecast real disposable income grows by 2.7% in 2016 and by 3.3% in 2017. Total industrial production falls by 1.3% in 2016, and then rises by 3.3% in 2017. Projected growth in nonfarm employment averages 1.8% in 2016 and 1.5% in 2017.

Expenditures

Forecast private real fixed investment growth averages 2.8% and 6.3% in 2016 and 2017, respectively. Real consumption expenditures grow faster than real GDP in 2016 at 2.5%, and in 2017 at 3.2%. Forecast export growth is 1.4% and 4.6% over the same two years, while import growth is 2.3% in 2016 and 6.6% in 2017. Total government expenditures rise by 2.0% in 2016 and by 0.4% in 2017.

U.S. Economic Assumptions
  2014 2015 2016 2017
Economic Output, Income, and Expenditures (billion chained 2009 dollars)
Real Gross Domestic Product 15962 16349 16671 17162
percent change from prior year 2.4 2.4 2.0 2.9
Real Disposable Personal Income 11836 12240 12574 12993
percent change from prior year 2.7 3.4 2.7 3.3
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures 10876 11213 11496 11867
Real Fixed Investment 2634 2740 2816 2993
Business Inventory Change 77.10 109.25 40.38 46.88
Employment (millions)
Non-Farm Employment 138.9 141.8 144.4 146.5
Commercial Employment 95.7 98.1 100.4 102.0
Production and Price Indexes
Manufacturing Production Index (2007=100) 102.5 103.6 103.7 107.0
percent change from prior year 1.3 1.1 0.1 3.2
Consumer Price Index (1982-1984=1.00) 2.37 2.37 2.39 2.44
Producer Price Index: All Commodities (1982=1.00) 2.05 1.90 1.85 1.92
Producer Price Index: Petroleum (1982=1.00) 2.78 1.76 1.42 1.64
GDP Implicit Price Deflator (2005=100) 108.7 109.8 111.4 113.6

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