U.S. Economic Assumptions

EIA uses the IHS/Global Insight (GI) macroeconomic model with EIA's energy price forecasts as model inputs to develop the economic projections in the STEO. The GI model used in this STEO assumes that the spending cuts mandated in the Budget Control Act of 2011 (sequestration) will soon be replaced by a combination of income tax increases and spending cuts that are implemented in 2014. The GI model also assumes there will be an agreement reached to increase the amount of debt that can be issued by the U.S. Treasury (the debt ceiling) in the near term.

U.S. Current Trends

Current economic indicators portray a mixed picture on the strength of the expansion to date. The Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index showed an increase in May, after declining in April. The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported real disposable income increased by 0.1 percent in April. The U.S. Census Bureau also reported that new orders for manufactured durable goods rose 3.3 percent from March to April, following a 5.9-percent decline from February to March. According to the U.S. Commerce Department, sales of new single-family homes increased by 2.3 percent from March to April 2013. This was a 29-percent rise from April 2012. However, the BEA revised downward real GDP growth in the first quarter of 2013 from 2.5 to 2.4 percent. The ISM Purchasing Managers Index fell to 49 percent in May, its lowest level since June 2009. Most projections continue to show stronger economic growth in the second half of 2013.

U.S. Production

This STEO assumes U.S. real GDP growth of 1.8 percent in 2013, rising to 2.6 percent in 2014. Year-on-year real GDP growth begins to accelerate in 2014, eventually rising to 3.0 percent in its final quarter. Forecast real disposable income increases 0.6 percent in 2013 and 3.3 percent in 2014. Total industrial production grows at a faster rate than real GDP in 2013 and 2014, at around 3.0 percent in each year. Industrial production growth in the manufacturing sector is 3.2 percent in 2013, but accelerates to 3.7 percent in 2014.

U.S. Income and Expenditures

Private fixed investment growth averages 6.5 and 8.3 percent over 2013 and 2014, respectively. This is driven partly by business equipment and software spending, as well as increasing expenditures on buildings. Real consumption expenditures grow faster than real GDP in 2013, at 2.1 percent, but slow below the rate of real GDP growth in 2014, at 2.2 percent. Export growth more than doubles from 2.0 to 5.2 percent over the same two years. Government expenditures fall by 2.8 percent in 2013, and rise by 0.3 percent in 2014.

U.S. Employment, Housing, and Prices

The unemployment rate in the forecast averages 7.6 percent over 2013, and gradually falls to 7.0 percent at the end of 2014. This is accompanied by nonfarm employment growth averaging 1.5 percent in both 2013 and 2014. Consistent with an improving housing sector, housing starts grow an average of 23.8 percent and 25.8 percent over 2013 and 2014, respectively. Both consumer and producer price indexes continue to increase at a moderate pace.