U.S. Energy Information Administration - EIA - Independent Statistics and Analysis
Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook
U.S. Economic Assumptions
Recent Economic Indicators
The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that U.S. real GDP increased at an annual rate of 3.9% in the second quarter of 2015, higher than the previous estimate of 3.7%. The increase in real GDP in the second quarter reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures, exports, state and local government spending, nonresidential fixed investment, and residential fixed investment.
EIA used the September 2015 version of the IHS macroeconomic model with EIA's energy price forecasts as model inputs to develop the economic projections in the STEO.
Production, Income, and Employment
Forecast real GDP growth reaches 2.5% in both 2015 and 2016. The 2015 growth is above the 2.1% forecast last month, while the 2016 growth is the same as last month. Real disposable income grows by 3.3% in 2015, below the 3.5% forecast last month, and by 3.0% in 2016. Total industrial production grows at 1.2% in 2015 and 1.1% in 2016. Projected growth in nonfarm employment averages 2.1% in 2015 and 1.5% in 2016.
Forecast private real fixed investment growth averages 4.8% and 6.5% in 2015 and 2016, respectively, led by equipment in 2015 and 2016 and by equipment and structures in 2016. Real consumption expenditures grow faster than real GDP in 2015 and 2016, at 3.0% in both years. Durable goods expenditures drive consumption spending in both years. Export growth is 1.7% and 3.7% over the same two years, while import growth is 5.7% in 2015 and 5.0% in 2016. Total government expenditures rise 0.7% in 2015 and 0.6% in 2016.
|U.S. Economic Assumptions|
|2013||2014||2015 projected||2016 projected|
|Economic Output, Income, and Expenditures||(billion chained 2009 dollars)|
|Real Gross Domestic Product||15583||15962||16355||16771|
|percent change from prior year||1.5||2.4||2.5||2.5|
|Real Disposable Personal Income||11523||11836||12224||12596|
|percent change from prior year||-1.4||2.7||3.3||3.0|
|Real Personal Consumption Expenditures||10590||10876||11206||11539|
|Real Fixed Investment||2502||2634||2760||2940|
|Business Inventory Change||71.80||77.10||109.73||46.27|
|Production and Price Indexes|
|Manufacturing Production Index (2007=100)||101.1||103.9||105.9||107.7|
|percent change from prior year||1.1||2.8||1.9||1.7|
|Consumer Price Index (1982-1984=1.00)||2.33||2.37||2.37||2.42|
|Producer Price Index: All Commodities (1982=1.00)||2.03||2.05||1.92||1.94|
|Producer Price Index: Petroleum (1982=1.00)||2.95||2.78||1.77||1.84|
|GDP Implicit Price Deflator (2005=100)||106.9||108.7||110.0||112.1|
Interactive Data Viewers
|Table 1. U.S. Energy Markets Summary|
|Table 9a. U.S. Macroeconomic Indicators and CO2 Emissions|
|Table 9b. U.S. Regional Macroeconomic Data|
|U.S. Annual Energy Expenditures||XLSX||PNG|
|U.S. Total Industrial Production Index||XLSX||PNG|
|U.S. Disposable Income||XLSX||PNG|