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Short-Term Energy Outlook

Release Date: August 11, 2015  |  Next Release Date: September 9, 2015  |  Full Report    |   Text Only   |   All Tables   |   All Figures

U.S. Economic Assumptions

Recent Economic Indicators

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that real GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.3% in the second quarter of 2015. The growth of real GDP was broad-based and reflected positive contributions from consumption, exports, state and local government spending, and residential fixed investment. The estimate of growth in the first quarter of 2015 was also revised up to 0.6%; the previous estimate was -0.2%.

EIA used the July 2015 version of the IHS macroeconomic model with EIA's energy price forecasts as model inputs to develop the economic projections in the current STEO.

Production, Income, and Employment

Forecast real GDP growth reaches 2.2% in 2015 and rises to 3.0% in 2016. The 2015 growth is above the 2.0% forecast in last month's STEO, and the 2016 growth is also above the 2.8% July forecast. Real disposable income grows by 3.5% in 2015, the same as in the July forecast, and by 2.9% in 2016. Total industrial production grows at 1.8% in 2015 and 3.3% in 2016. Projected growth in nonfarm employment averages 2.1% in 2015 and 1.5% in 2016.

Expenditures

Forecast private real fixed investment growth averages 4.7% and 7.3% in 2015 and 2016, respectively, led by equipment in 2015 and 2016 and by equipment and structures in 2016. Real consumption expenditures grow faster than real GDP in 2015, at 3.0%, and the same as real GDP in 2016 at 3.0%. Durable goods expenditures drive consumption spending in both years. Export growth is 2.2% and 4.6% over the same two years, while import growth is 6.0% in 2015 and 2016. Total government expenditures rise by 0.9% in 2015 and by 0.8% in 2016.

U.S. Economic Assumptions
  2013 2014 2015 2016
Economic Output, Income, and Expenditures (billion chained 2009 dollars)
Real Gross Domestic Product 15710 16086 16442 16932
percent change from prior year 2.2 2.4 2.2 3.0
Real Disposable Personal Income 11651 11943 12360 12715
percent change from prior year -0.2 2.5 3.5 2.9
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures 10700 10969 11300 11636
Real Fixed Investment 2479 2612 2734 2934
Business Inventory Change 74.05 82.05 64.21 59.09
Employment (millions)
Non-Farm Employment 136.4 139.0 141.9 144.0
Commercial Employment 93.8 95.8 98.2 99.9
Production and Price Indexes
Manufacturing Production Index (2007=100) 97.9 101.6 104.0 108.3
percent change from prior year 2.9 3.8 2.4 4.1
Consumer Price Index (1982-1984=1.00) 2.33 2.37 2.37 2.42
Producer Price Index: All Commodities (1982=1.00) 2.03 2.05 1.92 1.95
Producer Price Index: Petroleum (1982=1.00) 2.95 2.78 1.79 1.86
GDP Implicit Price Deflator (2005=100) 106.7 108.3 109.6 111.9

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