U.S. Energy Information Administration - EIA - Independent Statistics and Analysis
Short-Term Energy Outlook
U.S. Economic Assumptions
Recent Economic Indicators
The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that real GDP real GDP increased at an annual rate of 0.7% in the fourth quarter of 2015, down from 2.0% growth in the third quarter. The fourth quarter increase reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures, residential fixed investment, and federal government spending.
EIA used the January 2016 version of the IHS macroeconomic model with EIA's energy price forecasts as model inputs to develop the economic projections in the STEO.
Production, Income, and Employment
Forecast real GDP grows at 2.5% in 2016 and 3.1% in 2017, up from 2.4% in 2015. Real disposable income grows by 3.1% in 2016 and by 3.3% in 2017. Total industrial production grows by 0.4% in 2016 and by 3.4% in 2017. Projected growth in nonfarm employment averages 1.6% in 2016 and 1.3% in 2017.
Forecast private real fixed investment growth is 5.7% and 6.5% in 2016 and 2017, respectively. Real consumption expenditures grow faster than real GDP at 2.9% in 2016 and at 3.4% in 2017. Durable goods expenditures drive consumption spending in both years. Forecast export growth is 2.3% in 2016 and 5.4% in 2017, and import growth is 4.7% and 8.1% over the same period. Total government expenditures rise by 2.3% in 2016 and by 0.4% in 2017.
|U.S. Economic Assumptions|
|2014||2015||2016 projected||2017 projected|
|Economic Output, Income, and Expenditures||(billion chained 2009 dollars)|
|Real Gross Domestic Product||15962||16346||16759||17283|
|percent change from prior year||2.4||2.4||2.5||3.1|
|Real Disposable Personal Income||11836||12258||12637||13060|
|percent change from prior year||2.7||3.6||3.1||3.3|
|Real Personal Consumption Expenditures||10876||11211||11536||11932|
|Real Fixed Investment||2634||2750||2907||3097|
|Business Inventory Change||77.10||98.89||33.21||63.49|
|Production and Price Indexes|
|Manufacturing Production Index (2007=100)||103.9||106.2||107.3||111.0|
|percent change from prior year||2.8||2.2||1.1||3.5|
|Consumer Price Index (1982-1984=1.00)||2.37||2.37||2.40||2.46|
|Producer Price Index: All Commodities (1982=1.00)||2.05||1.90||1.89||1.94|
|Producer Price Index: Petroleum (1982=1.00)||2.78||1.76||1.34||1.62|
|GDP Implicit Price Deflator (2005=100)||108.7||109.8||111.8||114.0|
Interactive Data Viewers
|Table 1. U.S. Energy Markets Summary|
|Table 9a. U.S. Macroeconomic Indicators and CO2 Emissions|
|Table 9b. U.S. Regional Macroeconomic Data|
|U.S. Annual Energy Expenditures||XLSX||PNG|
|U.S. Total Industrial Production Index||XLSX||PNG|
|U.S. Disposable Income||XLSX||PNG|