U.S. Energy Information Administration - EIA - Independent Statistics and Analysis
Short-Term Energy Outlook
U.S. Economic Assumptions
Reported economic indicators showed mixed signals for first quarter 2014 growth. The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.2% during the fourth quarter of 2013, and 1.9% for 2013 as a whole. The U.S. Department of Labor reported that initial weekly unemployment insurance claims were 331,000 in the week ending February 1, an decrease of 20,000 from the previous week's revised figure, and the four-week moving average rose slightly to 334,000. The U.S. Census Bureau reported that new orders for manufactured durable goods fell 4.3% in December, following a 2.6% increase in November. The Federal Reserve Board reported that U.S. industrial production rose in December by 0.3%, following a 1.0% gain in November. The ISM purchasing manager's index fell to 51.3 in January 2014, from December's 56.5, where a measure above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector.
EIA uses the IHS/Global Insight macroeconomic model with EIA's energy price forecasts as model inputs to develop the economic projections in the STEO.
U.S. Production and Income
Forecast U.S. real GDP grows by 2.6% in 2014 and 3.2% in 2015. Even though forecast real GDP growth accelerates over the next two years, it is only in 2015 that GDP growth exceeds the economy's average annual growth of 3% from 1990 through 2007. Forecast real disposable income increases 3.1% in 2014 and 3.5% in 2015. Total industrial production grows at 3.0% in 2014, and is projected to grow 3.5% in 2015, reflecting the acceleration in growth of real fixed investment spending.
Private real fixed investment growth averages 6.8% and 8.5% over 2014 and 2015, respectively, with equipment spending accounting for most of investment's growth. Real consumption expenditures grow faster than real GDP in 2014, at 2.7%, but are below the rate of real GDP growth in 2015, at 3.0%. Export growth is 4.6% and 5.1% over the same two years. Government expenditures fall 0.2% in 2014, but increase by 0.4% in 2015.
U.S. Employment, Housing, and Prices
The unemployment rate in the forecast averages 6.4% over 2014, and gradually falls to 5.5% at the end of 2015. This is accompanied by nonfarm employment growth averaging 1.7% in 2014 and 1.9% in 2015. Housing starts grow an average of 23.5% and 27.4% in 2014 and 2015, respectively. Both consumer and producer price indexes continue to increase at a moderate pace, as wages continue to show modest gains.
|U.S. Economic Assumptions|
|2012||2013||2014 projected||2015 projected|
|Economic Output, Income, and Expenditures||(billion chained 2009 dollars)|
|Real Gross Domestic Product||15471||15761||16171||16684|
|percent change from prior year||2.8||1.9||2.6||3.2|
|Real Disposable Personal Income||11552||11643||12004||12427|
|percent change from prior year||2.0||0.8||3.1||3.5|
|Real Personal Consumption Expenditures||10518||10730||11015||11346|
|Real Fixed Investment||2365||2472||2641||2864|
|Business Inventory Change||66.08||95.26||66.27||76.37|
|Production and Price Indexes|
|Manufacturing Production Index (2007=100)||95.0||97.4||100.5||104.5|
|percent change from prior year||4.2||2.6||3.2||3.9|
|Consumer Price Index (1982-1984=1.00)||2.30||2.33||2.37||2.41|
|Producer Price Index: All Commodities (1982=1.00)||2.02||2.03||2.05||2.07|
|Producer Price Index: Petroleum (1982=1.00)||3.07||2.95||2.92||2.83|
|GDP Implicit Price Deflator (2005=100)||105.0||106.5||108.4||110.2|
Interactive Data Viewers
|Table 1. U.S. Energy Markets Summary|
|Table 9a. U.S. Macroeconomic Indicators and CO2 Emissions|
|Table 9b. U.S. Regional Macroeconomic Data|
|U.S. Annual Energy Expenditures||XLS||PNG|
|U.S. Total Industrial Production Index||XLS||PNG|
|U.S. Disposable Income||XLS||PNG|