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Short-Term Energy Outlook

Release Date: June 9, 2015  |  Next Release Date: July 7, 2015  |  Full Report    |   Text Only   |   All Tables   |   All Figures

U.S. Economic Assumptions

Recent Economic Indicators

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that real GDP decreased at an annual rate of 0.7% in the first quarter of 2015. This second estimate is below the initial estimate of a 0.2% increase. With the second estimate for the first quarter, imports increased more and private inventory investment increased less than previously estimated.

EIA used the May 2015 version of the IHS macroeconomic model with EIA's energy price forecasts as model inputs to develop the economic projections in the STEO.

Production, Income, and Employment

Forecast real GDP grows by 2.2% in 2015 and by 2.6% in 2016. The 2015 growth is below the 2.6% forecast last month, while the 2016 growth is higher than the 2.4% forecast last month. Real disposable income grows by 3.3% in 2015 and by 2.2% in 2016. Total industrial production grows at 1.5% in 2015 and 2.8% in 2016. Projected growth in nonfarm employment averages 2.0% in 2015 and 1.3% in 2016.

Expenditures

Forecast growth in private real fixed investment averages 3.8% and 7.2% in 2015 and 2016, respectively, led by investment in equipment in 2015 and investment in equipment and structures in 2016. Real consumption expenditures grow faster than real GDP in 2015, at 2.9%, and the same as real GDP in 2016, at 2.6%. Durable goods expenditures drive consumption spending in both years. Export growth is 1.6% in 2015 and 4.7% in 2016, while import growth is 4.8% in 2015 and 6.1% in 2016. Total government expenditures rise 0.8% in 2015 and 0.5% in 2016.

U.S. Economic Assumptions
  2013 2014 2015 2016
Economic Output, Income, and Expenditures (billion chained 2009 dollars)
Real Gross Domestic Product 15710 16086 16439 16860
percent change from prior year 2.2 2.4 2.2 2.6
Real Disposable Personal Income 11651 11939 12332 12600
percent change from prior year -0.2 2.5 3.3 2.2
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures 10700 10969 11292 11586
Real Fixed Investment 2479 2612 2711 2905
Business Inventory Change 74.05 82.05 76.38 53.65
Employment (millions)
Non-Farm Employment 136.4 139.0 141.8 143.6
Commercial Employment 93.8 95.8 98.1 99.6
Production and Price Indexes
Manufacturing Production Index (2007=100) 97.9 101.6 103.9 107.4
percent change from prior year 2.9 3.8 2.2 3.4
Consumer Price Index (1982-1984=1.00) 2.33 2.37 2.37 2.43
Producer Price Index: All Commodities (1982=1.00) 2.03 2.05 1.92 1.98
Producer Price Index: Petroleum (1982=1.00) 2.95 2.78 1.89 2.03
GDP Implicit Price Deflator (2005=100) 106.7 108.3 109.6 111.9

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