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Short-Term Energy Outlook

Release Date: May 12, 2015  |  Next Release Date: June 9, 2015  |  Full Report    |   Text Only   |   All Tables   |   All Figures

U.S. Economic Assumptions

Recent Economic Indicators

The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that real gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an annual rate of 0.2% in the first quarter of 2015. Personal consumption expenditures and private inventory investment contributed positively to this initial estimate, and they were partly offset by negative contributions from exports and nonresidential fixed investment.

EIA used the April 2015 version of the IHS macroeconomic model with EIA's energy price forecasts as model inputs to develop the economic projections in the STEO.

Production, Income, and Employment

Forecast real GDP growth reaches 2.6% in 2015 and slows to 2.4% in 2016. Growth is expected to rise in 2015 because of increases in consumer purchases. However, a stronger dollar and lower demand from slower-growing economies are expected to reduce export growth and raise import growth. Real disposable income grows by 3.3% in 2015, above the 3.1% forecast last month, and by 2.0% in 2016. Total industrial production grows at 1.6% in 2015 and 2.5% in 2016. Projected growth in nonfarm employment averages 2.0% in 2015 and 1.2% in 2016.

Expenditures

Forecast private real fixed investment growth averages 4.6% and 7.1% in 2015 and 2016, respectively, led by equipment in 2015 and 2016 and by equipment and structures in 2016. Real consumption expenditures grow faster than real GDP in 2015 and 2016, at 3.1% and 2.6%, respectively. Durable goods expenditures drive consumption spending in both years. Export growth is 2.1% and 4.2% over the same two years, while import growth is 3.7% in 2015 and 7.1% in 2016. Total government expenditures rise 0.9% in 2015 and 0.4% in 2016.

U.S. Economic Assumptions
  2013 2014 2015 2016
Economic Output, Income, and Expenditures (billion chained 2009 dollars)
Real Gross Domestic Product 15710 16086 16508 16897
percent change from prior year 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.4
Real Disposable Personal Income 11651 11939 12328 12577
percent change from prior year -0.2 2.5 3.3 2.0
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures 10700 10969 11305 11601
Real Fixed Investment 2479 2612 2731 2925
Business Inventory Change 74.05 82.05 68.04 50.09
Employment (millions)
Non-Farm Employment 136.4 139.0 141.9 143.6
Commercial Employment 93.8 95.8 98.1 99.4
Production and Price Indexes
Manufacturing Production Index (2007=100) 97.9 101.6 103.8 106.6
percent change from prior year 2.9 3.8 2.1 2.7
Consumer Price Index (1982-1984=1.00) 2.33 2.37 2.37 2.43
Producer Price Index: All Commodities (1982=1.00) 2.03 2.05 1.96 2.03
Producer Price Index: Petroleum (1982=1.00) 2.95 2.78 1.89 2.11
GDP Implicit Price Deflator (2005=100) 106.7 108.3 109.8 112.1

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