U.S. Energy Information Administration - EIA - Independent Statistics and Analysis
‹ Analysis & Projections
Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook
Global Petroleum and Liquid Fuels
- U.S. crude oil production averaged 9.4 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2015, and it is forecast to average 8.7 million b/d in 2016 and 8.6 million b/d in 2017. Forecast production in 2017 is almost 0.1 million b/d higher than in the previous forecast.
- Brent crude oil prices are forecast to average $43/barrel (b) in 2016 and $51/b in 2017, $1/b higher and $1/b lower than forecast in last month's STEO, respectively. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices are forecast to average about $1/b less than Brent in 2016 and in 2017. The current values of futures and options contracts suggest high uncertainty in the price outlook. NYMEX contract values for January 2017 delivery traded during the five-day period ending October 6 suggest a price range from $37/b to $68/b encompasses the market expectation of WTI prices in January 2017.
- Isolated refinery outages and a disruption to the Colonial Pipeline system contributed to U.S. average retail regular gasoline prices in September increasing by 4 cents/gallon (gal) from August to an average of $2.22/gal. With a return to normal refinery and pipeline operations, the switch to less-expensive winter gasoline blends, and the typical seasonal decline in gasoline consumption, EIA expects gasoline prices to fall an average of $1.97/gal in January. Retail gasoline prices are forecast to average $2.12/gal in 2016 and $2.26/gal in 2017.
- Global oil inventory builds are forecast to average 0.7 million b/d in 2016 and 0.3 million b/d in 2017.
|Global Petroleum and Other Liquids|
|2014||2015||2016 projected||2017 projected|
a Weighted by oil consumption.
b Foreign currency per U.S. dollar.
|Supply & Consumption||(million barrels per day)|
|OPEC Crude Oil Portion||30.99||31.76||32.45||33.03|
|Total World Production||93.35||95.81||96.04||97.01|
|OECD Commercial Inventory (end-of-year)||2688||2967||3049||3073|
|Total OPEC surplus crude oil production capacity||2.08||1.60||1.34||1.21|
|Total World Consumption||92.55||94.04||95.33||96.67|
|Primary Assumptions||(percent change from prior year)|
|World Real Gross Domestic Producta||2.8||2.5||2.1||2.7|
|Real U.S. Dollar Exchange Rateb||3.8||10.9||5.9||2.5|
Interactive Data Viewers
|Today In Energy||Daily|
|2016 Summer Fuels Outlook Slideshow||Apr-2016|
|2015 Summer Fuels Outlook Slideshow||Apr-2015|
|Uncertainties in the Short-Term Global Petroleum and Other Liquids Supply Forecast||Feb-2014|
|Key drivers for EIA's short-term U.S. crude oil production outlook||Feb-2013|
|Brent Crude Oil Spot Price Forecast||Jul-2012|
|Probabilities of Possible Future Prices||Apr-2010|
|Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty||Oct-2009|