U.S. Energy Information Administration - EIA - Independent Statistics and Analysis
Short-Term Energy Outlook
Global Petroleum and Other Liquids
Projected world petroleum and other liquids supply increases by 1.7 million barrels per day (bbl/d) in 2014 and 1.4 million bbl/d in 2015, with most of the growth coming from countries outside of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). The Americas, in particular the United States, Canada, and Brazil, will account for much of this growth. Projected world liquid fuels consumption grows by an annual average of 1.3 million bbl/d in 2014 and 1.4 million bbl/d in 2015. Countries outside the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), notably China, drive expected consumption growth. Non-OPEC supply growth contributes to an increase in global surplus crude oil production capacity from an average of 2.2 million bbl/d in 2013 to 3.8 million bbl/d in 2015.
Global unplanned supply disruptions reached nearly 3.2 million bbl/d by the end of 2013, but fell to 3.0 million bbl/d in January as some of Libya's oil production restarted. OPEC members continue to account for most of the global supply disruptions, averaging 2.3 million bbl/d in January. Supply disruptions present considerable uncertainty over the forecast period because the issues underpinning the disruptions in most countries remain unresolved.
Global Petroleum and Other Liquids Consumption
EIA estimates that global consumption grew by 1.2 million bbl/d in 2013, exceeding 91 million bbl/d by the second half of the year. EIA expects global consumption to grow at a similar pace of nearly 1.3 million bbl/d in 2014 and 1.4 million bbl/d in 2015, exceeding 93 million bbl/d by the second half of 2015.
Non-OECD countries account for almost all consumption growth over the forecast period. China is the leading contributor to projected global consumption growth, with consumption increasing by 400,000 bbl/d in 2014 and 430,000 bbl/d in 2015. However, China's economic and oil consumption growth have moderated compared with levels before 2012, when GDP growth exceeded 9% and annual oil consumption growth averaged 790,000 bbl/d from 2009 through 2011.
On the other hand, EIA expects OECD consumption to remain relatively flat over the next two years. Projected consumption declines in the OECD are led by Japan and Europe. EIA expects Japan's oil consumption to decrease annually by about 120,000 bbl/d in both 2014 and 2015, as the country continues to increase natural gas consumption in the electricity sector and returns some nuclear power plants to service. EIA projects that OECD Europe's consumption continues to decline by 100,000 bbl/d in 2014 and another 50,000 bbl/d in 2015, albeit at a slower pace compared with previous years. U.S. oil consumption growth, which was 380,000 bbl/d in 2013, is expected to slow to 30,000 bbl/d in 2014 and 60,000 bbl/d in 2015.
EIA estimates that non-OPEC production grew by 1.4 million bbl/d in 2013, exceeding 55 million bbl/d by the end of the year. EIA expects non-OPEC liquids production to grow annually by 1.9 million bbl/d in 2014 and 1.5 million bbl/d in 2015, reaching more than 58 million bbl/d by the end of 2015.
EIA forecasts production from the United States and Canada to grow by a combined annual average of 1.2 million bbl/d in both 2014 and 2015. Brazil's production is expected to increase by an annual average of 0.15 million bbl/d over the next two years, attributed to new deepwater fields. EIA expects Kazakhstan's production to grow by 0.09 million bbl/d in 2014 and by 0.13 million bbl/d in 2015 as output ramps up at the Kashagan oil field. EIA estimates that Asia and Oceania's production will rise by an annual average of 0.17 million bbl/d over the forecast period, led by China.
Unplanned supply disruptions among non-OPEC producers averaged 0.8 million bbl/d in 2013, a slight decline from 0.9 million bbl/d in 2012 but still considerably above the 2011 level of 0.5 million bbl/d. In January 2014, non-OPEC supply disruptions were less than 0.7 million bbl/d. South Sudan, Syria, and Yemen continue to account for more than 80% of total non-OPEC supply disruptions.
EIA estimates that OPEC crude oil production averaged 30.0 million bbl/d in 2013, a decline of 0.9 million bbl/d from the previous year, primarily resulting from increased outages in Libya, Nigeria, and Iraq. EIA expects OPEC crude oil production to fall by 0.4 million bbl/d and 0.3 million bbl/d in 2014 and 2015, respectively, as some OPEC countries, led by Saudi Arabia, reduce production to accommodate the non-OPEC supply growth in 2014. Projected OPEC non-crude oil liquids, which averaged an estimated 5.9 million barrels per day in 2013, increases to an average of 6.3 million bbl/d in 2015.
Unplanned crude oil supply disruptions among OPEC producers averaged 1.8 million bbl/d in 2013, nearly double the amount from the previous year. OPEC disruptions increased in the second half of 2013, reaching 2.6 million bbl/d by the end of the year because of increased outages in Libya. In January 2014, crude oil output in Libya partially recovered as the El Sharara field resumed production. OPEC supply disruptions fell to 2.3 million bbl/d in January 2014.
EIA expects that OPEC surplus capacity, which is concentrated in Saudi Arabia, will average 2.2 million bbl/d in the first quarter of 2014, reflecting the upward movement that began in the second half of 2013. Projected surplus crude oil production capacity increases over the forecast period, averaging 2.5 million bbl/d in 2014 and 3.8 million bbl/d in 2015. This build in surplus capacity reflects production cutbacks by some OPEC members adjusting for the higher supply from other OPEC members and non-OPEC producers. These estimates do not include additional capacity that may be available in Iran but is currently offline because of the effects of U.S. and European Union sanctions on Iran's oil sector.
OECD Petroleum Inventories
EIA estimates that OECD commercial oil inventories at the end of 2013 totaled 2.61 billion barrels, equivalent to roughly 56 days of supply. Projected OECD oil inventories rise to 2.63 billion barrels by the end of 2014 and continue increasing to 2.64 billion barrels by the end of 2015.
Crude Oil Prices
Brent crude oil spot prices averaged between $108/bbl and $112/bbl for the seventh consecutive month in January. EIA expects the Brent crude oil price to weaken as non-OPEC supply growth exceeds growth in world consumption. The Brent crude oil price is projected to average $105/bbl and $101/bbl in 2014 and 2015, respectively.
The forecast WTI crude oil spot price, which increased from a monthly average of $94/bbl in November to $98/bbl in December because of strong U.S. refinery crude oil runs, fell back to $95/bbl in January 2014. EIA expects that WTI crude oil prices will average $93/bbl in 2014 and $90/bbl during 2015. The discount of WTI crude oil to Brent crude oil, which averaged $18/bbl in 2012 and then fell below $4/bbl in July 2013, averaged $14/bbl in January 2014. EIA expects the discount of WTI crude oil to Brent crude oil to average $11/bbl over the forecast, reflecting the economics of transporting and processing the growing production of light sweet crude oil in U.S. and Canadian refineries.
Energy price forecasts are highly uncertain, and the current values of futures and options contracts suggest that prices could differ significantly from the forecast levels (Market Prices and Uncertainty Report). WTI futures contracts for May 2014 delivery, traded during the five-day period ending February 6, 2014, averaged $96/bbl. Implied volatility averaged 19%, establishing the lower and upper limits of the 95% confidence interval for the market's expectations of monthly average WTI prices in May 2014 at $81/bbl and $113/bbl, respectively. Last year at this time, WTI for May 2013 delivery averaged $98/bbl and implied volatility averaged 21%. The corresponding lower and upper limits of the 95% confidence interval were $82/bbl and $117/bbl.
|Global Petroleum and Other Liquids|
|2012||2013||2014 projected||2015 projected|
a Weighted by oil consumption.
b Foreign currency per U.S. dollar.
|Supply & Consumption||(million barrels per day)|
|OPEC Crude Oil Portion||30.89||30.01||29.58||29.31|
|Total World Production||89.37||89.95||91.68||93.05|
|OECD Commercial Inventory (end-of-year)||2647||2606||2627||2643|
|Total OPEC surplus crude oil production capacity||2.13||2.15||2.54||3.81|
|Total World Consumption||89.16||90.36||91.62||92.99|
|Primary Assumptions||(percent change from prior year)|
|World Real Gross Domestic Producta||2.7||2.3||3.1||3.6|
|Real U.S. Dollar Exchange Rateb||3.8||3.7||2.6||0.2|
Interactive Data Viewers
|Today In Energy||Daily|
|Uncertainties in the Short-Term Global Petroleum and Other Liquids Supply Forecast||Feb-2014|
|Key drivers for EIA's short-term U.S. crude oil production outlook||Feb-2013|
|Brent Crude Oil Spot Price Forecast||Jul-2012|
|Probabilities of Possible Future Prices||Apr-2010|
|Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty||Oct-2009|