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Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook

Release Date: October 13, 2016  |  Next Release Date: November 8, 2016  |  Full Report    |   Text Only   |   All Tables   |   All Figures

Global Petroleum and Liquid Fuels

  • U.S. crude oil production averaged 9.4 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2015, and it is forecast to average 8.7 million b/d in 2016 and 8.6 million b/d in 2017. Forecast production in 2017 is almost 0.1 million b/d higher than in the previous forecast.
  • Brent crude oil prices are forecast to average $43/barrel (b) in 2016 and $51/b in 2017, $1/b higher and $1/b lower than forecast in last month's STEO, respectively. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices are forecast to average about $1/b less than Brent in 2016 and in 2017. The current values of futures and options contracts suggest high uncertainty in the price outlook. NYMEX contract values for January 2017 delivery traded during the five-day period ending October 6 suggest a price range from $37/b to $68/b encompasses the market expectation of WTI prices in January 2017.
  • Isolated refinery outages and a disruption to the Colonial Pipeline system contributed to U.S. average retail regular gasoline prices in September increasing by 4 cents/gallon (gal) from August to an average of $2.22/gal. With a return to normal refinery and pipeline operations, the switch to less-expensive winter gasoline blends, and the typical seasonal decline in gasoline consumption, EIA expects gasoline prices to fall an average of $1.97/gal in January. Retail gasoline prices are forecast to average $2.12/gal in 2016 and $2.26/gal in 2017.
  • Global oil inventory builds are forecast to average 0.7 million b/d in 2016 and 0.3 million b/d in 2017.

Figure 6: World Liquid Fuels Consumption Growth

Global Petroleum and Other Liquids
  2014 2015 2016 2017
a Weighted by oil consumption.
b Foreign currency per U.S. dollar.
Supply & Consumption (million barrels per day)
Non-OPEC Production 55.90 57.49 56.84 56.94
OPEC Production 37.45 38.32 39.20 40.07
OPEC Crude Oil Portion 30.99 31.76 32.45 33.03
Total World Production 93.35 95.81 96.04 97.01
OECD Commercial Inventory (end-of-year) 2688 2967 3049 3073
Total OPEC surplus crude oil production capacity 2.08 1.60 1.34 1.21
OECD Consumption 45.86 46.41 46.53 46.60
Non-OECD Consumption 46.69 47.63 48.80 50.07
Total World Consumption 92.55 94.04 95.33 96.67
Primary Assumptions (percent change from prior year)
World Real Gross Domestic Producta 2.8 2.5 2.1 2.7
Real U.S. Dollar Exchange Rateb 3.8 10.9 5.9 2.5

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