U.S. Energy Information Administration - EIA - Independent Statistics and Analysis
Short-Term Energy Outlook
The U.S. residential retail price averaged 12.54 cents per kilowatthour (kWh) between January and October 2014, which was 3.1% higher than the same period in 2013. Electricity rates rose the fastest in the New England states (10.9%) over this period, while residential prices in the West North Central region rose by 1.6%. Growth in residential electricity prices for the Pacific states in 2014 was relatively flat compared with 2013, as growth in regional rates was offset by credits to the electricity bills of some California residential customers. Retail electricity prices to the commercial and industrial sectors also increased over 2013 levels: by 4.4% and 3.4%, respectively.
Heating degree days (HDD) during the first quarter of 2015 are projected to be about 12% lower than last year. Milder forecast temperatures during the early part of 2015 should translate to lower household usage of electricity, especially for those households that use heat pumps for space heating. This contributes to EIA's forecast of a 0.3% decline in retail sales of electricity to the residential sector for the full year of 2015. Residential electricity sales grow by 0.6% in 2016.
EIA forecasts that U.S. electricity generation will grow by 1.1% in 2015 and then by 0.9% in 2016. The mix of energy sources used to produce this generation shifts over the next two years. The share of total generation fueled by coal falls from 39.0% in 2014 to 37.6% in 2016, as declining natural gas prices make that fuel more attractive for power generators and as coal-fueled plants retire in 2015. This decline in coal is balanced by an increase in natural gas generation, which rises from 27.3% of total generation in 2014 to 28.1% in 2016, and by an increase in renewable electricity (other than hydropower), which rises from 6.7% to 7.9%.
Electricity Retail Prices
EIA expects continued growth in average residential electricity prices over the forecast period, albeit at a slower pace than in 2014. The U.S. retail residential price is projected to increase by 1.1% in 2015 and by 1.8% in 2016. Most areas of the country should experience rising prices, with the exception of the West South Central states where residential prices fall by 3.2% this year. Projected price increases in 2015 are again highest in the New England states (3.8%).
|U.S. Electricity Summary|
|2013||2014||2015 projected||2016 projected|
|Retail Prices||(cents per kilowatthour)|
|Power Generation Fuel Costs||(dollars per million Btu)|
|Residual Fuel Oil||19.33||19.43||11.42||12.40|
|Distillate Fuel Oil||23.08||22.24||15.96||19.19|
|Generation||(billion kWh per day)|
|Retail Sales||(billion kWh per day)|
|Total Retail Sales||10.11||10.23||10.31||10.40|
|Primary Assumptions||(percent change from previous year)|
|Real DIsposable Personal Income||-0.2||2.4||2.8||2.7|
|Manufacturing Production Index||2.9||3.8||2.9||3.1|
|Cooling Degree Days||-12.6||-0.6||4.9||0.4|
|Heating Degree Days||18.5||2.0||-6.4||-0.6|
|Number of Households||0.7||0.5||0.8||1.2|
Interactive Data Viewers
|Today In Energy||Daily|
|Annual Energy Outlook Electric Power Projections||Annual|
|Annual Energy Outlook Levelized Generation Costs||Annual|
|2014-2015 Winter Fuels Outlook Slideshow||Oct-2014|
|2014 Summer Fuels Outlook Slideshow||Apr-2014|
|Energy-weighted industrial production indices||Mar-2014|
|Summer 2013 Outlook for Residential Electric Bills||Jun-2013|
|Changes to Electricity and Renewables Tables||Aug-2012|
|Fuel Competition in Power Generation||Jun-2012|