U.S. Energy Information Administration - EIA - Independent Statistics and Analysis
Short-Term Energy Outlook
Nuclear plant outages during October 2014 averaged 9% more than in October 2013, as some plants on 18-month schedules refueled their units and performed other maintenance. The Vermont Yankee nuclear facility will only be operating for another month or two before beginning the process of retiring. The closure of this plant will have a measureable impact on the mix of fuels used for supplying electricity to the region. In recent years, the electricity industry in New England has been moving toward natural gas as a primary fuel for power generation, along with increased imports of hydroelectricity from Canada.
Total U.S. electricity retail sales, which increased by 0.2% in 2013, grow by 0.9% and 0.7% in 2014 and 2015, respectively. U.S. residential electricity sales during 2014 are estimated to reach an average that is 1.5% higher than 2013, driven primarily by high consumption during the winter months earlier in the year. EIA expects relatively flat residential sales during 2015 as weather returns closer to normal levels.
EIA estimates that U.S. electricity generation in 2014 will average 11.2 terawatthours per day (TWh/d), which would be 0.1 TWh/d higher than average generation last year. Relative fuel costs have favored coal-fired generation over natural gas this year, leading to an expected increase in coal's share of total generation from 39.1% in 2013 to 39.6% this year, while the share supplied by natural gas falls from 27.4% to 27.0%. In 2015, EIA expects that natural gas's fuel share will rise to 27.6% and coal's fuel share will decline to 38.8%. Within the Northeast region, the share of total generation supplied by nuclear power falls from 35.1% in 2014 to 33.2% in 2015.
Electricity Retail Prices
EIA expects the U.S. residential price to average 12.5 cents per kilowatthour in 2014, which is 3.0% higher than the average last year. Prices increase in all regions of the country except along the Pacific Coast. Average U.S. residential electricity prices grow at a slower rate of 1.7% in 2015.
|U.S. Electricity Summary|
|2012||2013||2014 projected||2015 projected|
|Retail Prices||(cents per kilowatthour)|
|Power Generation Fuel Costs||(dollars per million Btu)|
|Residual Fuel Oil||21.05||19.33||19.50||15.01|
|Distillate Fuel Oil||23.51||23.08||22.21||19.42|
|Generation||(billion kWh per day)|
|Retail Sales||(billion kWh per day)|
|Total Retail Sales||10.09||10.11||10.21||10.28|
|Primary Assumptions||(percent change from previous year)|
|Real DIsposable Personal Income||3.0||-0.2||2.6||2.7|
|Manufacturing Production Index||4.4||2.9||3.6||3.1|
|Cooling Degree Days||1.7||-12.9||-0.5||5.5|
|Heating Degree Days||-12.6||18.6||1.0||-6.6|
|Number of Households||1.1||0.7||0.4||0.8|
Interactive Data Viewers
|Today In Energy||Daily|
|Annual Energy Outlook Electric Power Projections||Annual|
|Annual Energy Outlook Levelized Generation Costs||Annual|
|2014-2015 Winter Fuels Outlook Slideshow||Oct-2014|
|2014 Summer Fuels Outlook Slideshow||Apr-2014|
|Energy-weighted industrial production indices||Mar-2014|
|Summer 2013 Outlook for Residential Electric Bills||Jun-2013|
|Changes to Electricity and Renewables Tables||Aug-2012|
|Fuel Competition in Power Generation||Jun-2012|