U.S. Energy Information Administration - EIA - Independent Statistics and Analysis
Short-Term Energy Outlook
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center has updated the methodology behind its degree-day outlook based on the new 1981-2010 30-year normals. Projected U.S. cooling degree days for 2013 and 2014 are 3.9 percent and 3.6 percent higher, respectively, compared with last month's forecast. Consequently, projected residential and commercial electricity sales for 2013 and 2014 are about 0.5 percent higher than in last month's STEO.
U.S. Electricity Consumption
During the first four months of 2013, EIA estimates that total U.S. retail sales of electricity to the residential sector averaged 5.4 percent more than residential electricity sales during the same months last year. Despite the upward revision to NOAA's cooling-degree-day forecast, projected U.S. cooling degree days during the upcoming summer's hottest months (June, July, and August) are 7.3 percent lower than summer of 2012. These lower temperatures relative to last year contribute to a 3.6-percent decline in U.S. residential electricity sales during the summer peak cooling months. For the entire year, U.S. residential retail electricity sales increase by 1.1 percent during 2013 and by 0.5 percent in 2014.
U.S. Electricity Generation
EIA expects total U.S. electricity generation will grow by 1.4 percent in 2013 and by 1.0 percent in 2014. The increasing cost of natural gas relative to coal contributes to higher levels of electricity generation from coal. Generators are running their existing coal capacity at higher rates so far this year compared with the same months in 2012. This trend is expected to continue, leading to an 8.7-percent increase in U.S. electricity generation from coal during 2013. The share of total generation fueled by coal is forecast to increase from 37.4 percent in 2012 to 40.1 percent in 2013, still below coal's 42.3-percent fuel share in 2011. Conversely, the rising cost of natural gas pushes the share of generation fueled by natural gas down from 30.4 percent in 2012 to 27.8 percent in 2013, compared with a share of 24.7 percent in 2011.
U.S. Electricity Retail Prices
After an increase of 1.4 percent during 2012, EIA expects U.S. retail residential electricity prices will grow by 2.6 percent in 2013 and by 2.3 percent in 2014.
|U.S. Electricity Summary|
|2011||2012||2013 projected||2014 projected|
|Retail Prices||(cents per kilowatthour)|
|Power Generation Fuel Costs||(dollars per million Btu)|
|Residual Fuel Oil||18.30||20.85||17.71||17.28|
|Distillate Fuel Oil||22.43||23.46||21.82||21.65|
|Generation||(billion kWh per day)|
|Retail Sales||(billion kWh per day)|
|Total Retail Sales||10.27||10.07||10.19||10.30|
|Primary Assumptions||(percent change from previous year)|
|Real DIsposable Personal Income||1.3||1.5||0.9||3.4|
|Manufacturing Production Index||3.6||4.2||3.3||3.5|
|Cooling Degree Days||2.0||0.7||-9.3||-0.7|
|Heating Degree Days||-3.4||-12.4||14.8||-1.9|
|Number of Households||1.0||1.1||1.2||1.2|
Interactive Data Viewers
|Today In Energy||Daily|
|Annual Energy Outlook Electric Power Projections||Annual|
|Annual Energy Outlook Levelized Generation Costs||Annual|
|2012-2013 Winter Fuels Outlook Slideshow||Oct-2012|
|Change in STEO Regional and U.S. Degree Day Calculations||Sep-2012|
|Changes to Electricity and Renewables Tables||Aug-2012|
|Fuel Competition in Power Generation||Jun-2012|