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Short-Term Energy Outlook

Release Date: May 7, 2013  |  Next Release Date: June 11, 2013  |  Full Report    |   Text Only   |   All Tables   |   All Figures

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Electricity

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center has updated the methodology behind its degree-day outlook based on the new 1981-2010 30-year normals. Projected U.S. cooling degree days for 2013 and 2014 are 3.9 percent and 3.6 percent higher, respectively, compared with last month's forecast. Consequently, projected residential and commercial electricity sales for 2013 and 2014 are about 0.5 percent higher than in last month's STEO.

U.S. Electricity Consumption

During the first four months of 2013, EIA estimates that total U.S. retail sales of electricity to the residential sector averaged 5.4 percent more than residential electricity sales during the same months last year. Despite the upward revision to NOAA's cooling-degree-day forecast, projected U.S. cooling degree days during the upcoming summer's hottest months (June, July, and August) are 7.3 percent lower than summer of 2012. These lower temperatures relative to last year contribute to a 3.6-percent decline in U.S. residential electricity sales during the summer peak cooling months. For the entire year, U.S. residential retail electricity sales increase by 1.1 percent during 2013 and by 0.5 percent in 2014.

U.S. Electricity Generation

EIA expects total U.S. electricity generation will grow by 1.4 percent in 2013 and by 1.0 percent in 2014. The increasing cost of natural gas relative to coal contributes to higher levels of electricity generation from coal. Generators are running their existing coal capacity at higher rates so far this year compared with the same months in 2012. This trend is expected to continue, leading to an 8.7-percent increase in U.S. electricity generation from coal during 2013. The share of total generation fueled by coal is forecast to increase from 37.4 percent in 2012 to 40.1 percent in 2013, still below coal's 42.3-percent fuel share in 2011. Conversely, the rising cost of natural gas pushes the share of generation fueled by natural gas down from 30.4 percent in 2012 to 27.8 percent in 2013, compared with a share of 24.7 percent in 2011.

U.S. Electricity Retail Prices

After an increase of 1.4 percent during 2012, EIA expects U.S. retail residential electricity prices will grow by 2.6 percent in 2013 and by 2.3 percent in 2014.

U.S. Electricity Summary
  2011 2012 2013 2014
Retail Prices (cents per kilowatthour)
Residential Sector 11.72 11.88 12.19 12.47
Commercial Sector 10.23 10.12 10.33 10.50
Industrial Sector 6.82 6.70 6.84 6.97
Power Generation Fuel Costs (dollars per million Btu)
Coal 2.39 2.40 2.40 2.44
Natural Gas 4.73 3.39 4.55 4.74
Residual Fuel Oil 18.30 20.85 17.71 17.28
Distillate Fuel Oil 22.43 23.46 21.82 21.65
Generation (billion kWh per day)
Coal 4.749 4.145 4.507 4.575
Natural Gas 2.777 3.363 3.116 3.052
Nuclear 2.165 2.102 2.067 2.102
Conventional Hydroelectric 0.875 0.756 0.737 0.750
Renewable (non-hydroelectric) 0.531 0.598 0.683 0.739
Total Generation 11.235 11.078 11.227 11.334
Retail Sales (billion kWh per day)
Residential Sector 3.90 3.76 3.80 3.82
Commercial Sector 3.64 3.62 3.67 3.71
Industrial Sector 2.72 2.68 2.71 2.75
Total Retail Sales 10.27 10.07 10.19 10.30
Primary Assumptions (percent change from previous year)
Real DIsposable Personal Income 1.3 1.5 0.9 3.4
Manufacturing Production Index 3.6 4.2 3.3 3.5
Cooling Degree Days 2.0 0.7 -9.3 -0.7
Heating Degree Days -3.4 -12.4 14.8 -1.9
Number of Households 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2

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Related Tables
Table SF01. U.S. Motor Gasoline Summer Outlook PDF
Table 1. U.S. Energy Markets Summary PDF
Table 2. U.S. Energy Prices PDF
Table 7a. U.S. Electricity Industry Overview PDF
Table 7b. U.S. Regional Electricity Retail Sales PDF
Table 7c. U.S. Regional Electricity Prices PDF
Table 7d. U.S. Regional Electricity Generation, All Sectors PDF
Table 7e. U.S. Regional Fuel Consumption for Electricity Generation, All Sectors PDF
Table 9a. U.S. Macroeconomic Indicators and CO2 Emissions PDF
Table 9b. U.S. Regional Macroeconomic Data PDF
Table 9c. U.S. Regional Weather Data PDF
Related Figures
U.S. Electricity Consumption XLS PNG
U.S. Residential Electricity Price XLS PNG
U.S. Electricity Generation by Fuel, All Sectors XLS PNG
U.S. Renewable Energy Supply XLS PNG
U.S. Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions Growth XLS PNG
U.S. Summer Cooling Degree Days XLS PNG
U.S. Winter Heating Degree Days XLS PNG
U.S. Census Regions and Census Divisions XLS PNG
U.S. Total Industrial Production Index XLS PNG
U.S. Disposable Income XLS PNG
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About the Short-Term Energy Outlook

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