U.S. Energy Information Administration - EIA - Independent Statistics and Analysis
Short-Term Energy Outlook
So far this year (through October 2013), the electricity industry has added 10.0 gigawatts (GW) of new generating capacity. Much of this new capacity (6.2 GW) is fueled by natural gas. Renewable energy sources are used in 2.3 GW of the new capacity while two new coal plants (1.5 GW) have also started producing electricity this year. However, these new sources for power generation have been more than offset by 11.1 GW of retired capacity. Coal-fired and nuclear plants comprise the largest proportion of year-to-date retired capacity (3.8 GW and 3.6 GW, respectively). A total of 2.3 GW of natural-gas-fired capacity has been retired so far this year.
U.S. Electricity Consumption
Electricity sales during 2013 have experienced little, if any, growth. Consumption of electricity in the residential and commercial sectors will have grown by an estimated 0.8% and 0.7%, respectively. Residential sales showed particularly strong growth during the first quarter, while summer consumption was lower in most regions. EIA expects sales of electricity to the industrial sector will have fallen by 2.3% during 2013. Much of this decline in industrial consumption of electricity occurred in the Northeast and Midwest.
U.S. Electricity Generation
EIA expects total U.S. electricity generation during 2013 will be 0.2% higher than 2012, and generation during 2014 will be 0.4% higher than this year. Despite the retirements of existing capacity during the past year, generation from coal and nuclear plants is projected to be 5.4% and 1.3% higher, respectively. The increase in coal-fired generation reflects increased fuel costs for generation using natural gas. EIA expects this trend will continue next year, albeit at a slower pace, with coal generation growing by 1.9% and natural gas generation falling by 0.8%.
U.S. Electricity Retail Prices
The rising cost of generation fuels, particularly natural gas, contributes to a projected increase in the residential price of electricity. During the upcoming winter months, EIA expects the U.S. residential electricity price to average 11.9 cents per kilowatthour, which is 2.1% higher than in the winter of 2012-13.
|U.S. Electricity Summary|
|2011||2012||2013 projected||2014 projected|
|Retail Prices||(cents per kilowatthour)|
|Power Generation Fuel Costs||(dollars per million Btu)|
|Residual Fuel Oil||18.30||20.86||19.27||18.97|
|Distillate Fuel Oil||22.43||23.43||23.19||22.85|
|Generation||(billion kWh per day)|
|Retail Sales||(billion kWh per day)|
|Total Retail Sales||10.27||10.10||10.09||10.12|
|Primary Assumptions||(percent change from previous year)|
|Real DIsposable Personal Income||2.4||2.0||0.7||3.1|
|Manufacturing Production Index||3.6||4.2||2.3||2.4|
|Cooling Degree Days||0.7||2.2||-12.4||3.9|
|Heating Degree Days||-3.0||-12.8||18.0||-4.0|
|Number of Households||1.0||1.1||1.2||1.4|
Interactive Data Viewers
|Today In Energy||Daily|
|Annual Energy Outlook Electric Power Projections||Annual|
|Annual Energy Outlook Levelized Generation Costs||Annual|
|2013-2014 Winter Fuels Outlook Slideshow||Oct-2013|
|Summer 2013 Outlook for Residential Electric Bills||Jun-2013|
|Change in STEO Regional and U.S. Degree Day Calculations||Sep-2012|
|Changes to Electricity and Renewables Tables||Aug-2012|
|Fuel Competition in Power Generation||Jun-2012|