U.S. Energy Information Administration - EIA - Independent Statistics and Analysis
Short-Term Energy Outlook
EIA expects U.S. coal production will grow 2.7% to 1,011 million short tons (MMst) in 2014, driven by higher consumption. In 2015, forecast U.S. coal production falls by 0.9% to 1,002 MMst.
EIA projects total coal consumption growth of 2.8% to 951 MMst in 2014 because of higher electricity demand and power sector natural gas prices nearly 30% above their 2013 level. Total coal consumption is projected to fall by 2.8% in 2015, as retirements of coal power plants rise in response to the implementation of the Mercury and Air Toxics Standards, electricity sales growth slows to 0.1%, and natural gas prices fall relative to coal prices.
In April, coal exports were 16.6% (1.6 MMst) lower compared with last year, with steam coal exports falling by 1.5 MMst (33.4%). Coal exports are projected to total 99 MMst in 2014, primarily because of slowing world coal demand growth and increasing coal output in other coal-exporting countries. In 2015, projected exports fall to 95 MMst.
Annual average coal prices to the electric power industry fell over the past two years, from $2.39/MMBtu in 2011 to $2.35/MMBtu in 2013. Monthly average coal prices have increased by 10 cents per MMBtu since the beginning of the year, with the April price averaging $2.40/MMBtu. EIA expects average delivered coal prices to increase over the forecast period, with prices of $2.39/MMBtu in 2014 and $2.41/MMBtu in 2015.
|U.S. Coal Summary|
|2012||2013||2014 projected||2015 projected|
|Prices||(dollars per million Btu)|
|Electric Power Sector||2.38||2.35||2.39||2.41|
|Supply||(million short tons)|
|U.S. Coal Production||1016.4||984.0||1010.8||1001.7|
|Consumption||(million short tons)|
|Electric Power Sector||823.6||858.4||884.7||854.6|
|End of Period Inventories||(million short tons)|
|Electric Power Sector||185.1||148.0||124.3||127.3|