U.S. Energy Information Administration - EIA - Independent Statistics and Analysis
International Energy Outlook 2011
Release Date: September 19, 2011 | Next Scheduled Release Date: July 2013 | Report Number: DOE/EIA-0484(2011)
Transportation sector energy consumption
Energy use in the transportation sector includes energy consumed in moving people and goods by road, rail, air, water, and pipeline. The road transport component includes light-duty vehicles, such as automobiles, sport utility vehicles, minivans, small trucks, and motorbikes, as well as heavy-duty vehicles, such as large trucks used for moving freight and buses for passenger travel. Growth in economic activity and population are the key factors that determine transportation sector energy demand. In developing economies, increased economic activity leads to growing income per capita; and as standards of living rise, demand for personal transportation increases.
Over the next 25 years, demand for liquid fuels increases more rapidly in the transportation sector than in any other end-use sector, with most of the growth projected among the developing non-OECD nations and consumption among the developed OECD nations remaining relatively flat or declining in the IEO2011 Reference case (Figure 101). In 2008, non-OECD countries as a group consumed 34 percent less energy for transportation than OECD countries. In 2035, non-OECD energy use for transportation exceeds that in the OECD countries by 19 percent (Figure 102 and Table 15).
A primary factor in the projected increase of energy demand for transportation is steadily rising demand for personal travel in both the developing and mature economies. In the developing economies, with gains in urbanization and personal incomes, demand for air travel and motorized personal vehicles increases. In addition, strong GDP growth in the non-OECD economies leads to modal shifts in the transport of goods, and freight transportation by trucks leads the growth in non-OECD demand for transportation fuels. In addition, as the volume of international trade grows, fuel use for freight transportation by air and marine vessels also increases in the projection.
World vehicle ownership is projected to grow rapidly, particularly in the non-OECD countries. In the industrialized OECD countries, growth in vehicle ownership per capita slows as saturation levels begin to be reached. In most of the non-OECD countries, growth in vehicle ownership is expected to continue at a rapid pace. In particular, the growth in China's vehicle ownership represents a key uncertainty in the IEO2011 projections. With higher economic growth rates and higher energy intensities, the non-OECD countries' share of world transportation energy demand rises from 40 percent in 2008 to 54 percent in 2035.
In the IEO2011 Reference case, the share of world transportation energy use attributed to petroleum-based liquids does not change significantly over the projection period, but oil's dominance may begin to be challenged by advancing technologies. Uncertainty about the security of oil supplies, the prospect of rising oil prices, and environmental concerns about emissions associated with the combustion of petroleum pose challenges to countries that are experiencing rapid motorization and have to import large portions of their transportation fuel supplies. As a result, future trends in transportation demand will be influenced by government policies directed at reducing emissions and congestion while promoting alternative fuels, new vehicle technologies, and mass transit.
Market forces and government policies could drive the development of highly efficient vehicle technologies, including hybrids, plug-in electric hybrids, and electric and fuel cell vehicles. The technologies are promising, with the potential to alter future demand for transportation fuels, reduce emissions, improve energy security, and provide significant energy savings. Widespread adoption of alternative vehicle technologies, combined with expansion of mass transit infrastructure, could be an attractive option for long-term development of the transportation sector in many developing countries.
The OECD countries generally have mature transportation sectors with fully established infrastructure networks and demand patterns, and transportation energy demand in OECD economies grows slowly in the Reference case as a result of high motorization levels, relatively slow growth of GDP and population, sustained high world oil prices, and continuing improvements in transportation energy efficiency. In the IEO2011 Reference case, demand for transportation fuels in OECD countries grows by an average of 0.3 percent per year, from 59 quadrillion Btu in 2008 to 65 quadrillion Btu in 2035.
The countries of the OECD Americas accounted for 34 percent of the world's fuel use for transportation in 2008, but their share is projected to decline to about 27 percent in 2035 as the transportation sectors of emerging economies expand. The region's total demand for transportation energy increases from 33 quadrillion Btu in 2008 to 38 quadrillion Btu in 2035 in the Reference case, and its share of the OECD total grows from 56 percent in 2008 to 59 percent in 2035 (Figure 103).
The United States is the largest consumer of transportation energy among the OECD nations, accounting for 70 percent of the increase in OECD transportation energy use in the IEO2011 Reference case. U.S. delivered energy consumption in the transportation sector grows from 28 quadrillion Btu in 2008 to almost 32 quadrillion Btu in 2035, an average annual increase of 0.5 percent.
The IEO2011 Reference case assumes the adoption of Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards for light-duty vehicles33 for model year 2011, as well as joint CAFE and greenhouse gas emissions standards set forth by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) for model years 2012 through 2016. The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 further mandates an increase in light-duty vehicle fuel economy to an average of 35 miles per gallon by model year 2020. As a result of the more stringent standards, the average fuel economy of new light-duty vehicles in the United States (including credits for alternative-fuel vehicles and banked credits) rises from 29.7 miles per gallon in 2011 to 35.7 miles per gallon in 2020 and 37.6 miles per gallon in 2035. The IEO2011 Reference case does not incorporate further increases in CAFE standards and greenhouse gas emissions standards for light-duty vehicles for model years 2017 through 2025, which currently are being developed.
Energy consumption for light-duty vehicles in the United States grows from 16.8 quadrillion Btu in 2008 to 18.4 quadrillion Btu in 2035, a 10-percent increase overall. The growth in U.S. energy demand for light-duty vehicles results mainly from a 17-percent increase in vehicle miles traveled per licensed driver, supported by higher levels of real disposable personal income and more moderate increases in fuel prices than have been seen in recent years. U.S. energy demand for heavy-duty vehicles34 increases by 35 percent, from 5.0 quadrillion Btu in 2008 to 6.7 quadrillion Btu in 2035, representing the largest contribution to growth in total energy demand in the transportation sector. Fuel use for heavy-duty vehicles rises as industrial output increases and more high-value goods are carried by freight trucks, offset only partially by a small increase in heavy-duty vehicle fuel economy. The IEO2011 Reference case does not incorporate fuel economy standards for heavy-duty vehicles that were issued in August 2011.
U.S. energy consumption for air travel grows by 14 percent in the Reference case, from 2.7 quadrillion Btu in 2008 to 3.1 quadrillion Btu in 2035, as increases in the cost of aviation fuel are moderate in comparison with recent increases and are accompanied by increases in aircraft fuel efficiency and load factors. Demand for air travel increases with rising personal incomes, and demand for air freight increases as U.S. exports rise. Those increases are tempered, however, by increases in aircraft fuel efficiency and load factors.35 Energy consumption for marine and rail transportation also increases slightly, to 1.4 and 0.8 quadrillion Btu, respectively, in 2035 as a result of higher industrial output and the movement of bulk commodities such as corn and coal.
Canada's transportation sector is similar to that of the United States, with well developed infrastructure, high motor vehicle ownership rates per capita, and a similar mix of transportation fuel use. Personal motor vehicles in Canada are fueled largely by motor gasoline rather than diesel or alternative fuels. In the IEO2011 Reference case, Canada's total transportation energy use increases by 0.2 percent per year, from 2.5 quadrillion Btu in 2008 to 2.6 quadrillion Btu in 2035.
Petroleum products remain the dominant fuel in Canada's transportation fuel mix in the long term, although the share of alternative fuels increases moderately as a result of the Canadian government's commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 17 percent from 2005 levels by 2020 . In December 2010, as part of its renewable fuels strategy, Canada adopted renewable fuels regulations requiring that gasoline contain 5 percent renewable fuel . In addition, the government plans to implement a requirement for a 2-percent renewable content in diesel fuel and heating oil, subject to technical feasibility, as an amendment to the renewable fuels regulations . In support of further development of transportation biofuel production facilities, the government extended the 4-year "ecoAgriculture Biofuels Capital Initiative" federal program—which provides repayable contributions to agricultural producers to stimulate participation in the biofuels industry—through September 2012 .
The transportation sector is Canada's largest source of greenhouse gas emissions, currently accounting for approximately one-quarter of total emissions, and the country is taking action to reduce the environmental impact of emissions from the transportation sector . In October 2010, Canada adopted its first national greenhouse gas emissions standards for new passenger automobiles and light trucks, for the 2011-2016 model years, aligning them with U.S. national fuel economy standards . The new regulations establish increasingly stringent greenhouse gas emissions standards for vehicle model years 2011 through 2016. Implementation of the standards is expected to reduce average greenhouse gas emissions from new passenger vehicles and light trucks manufactured in 2016 by approximately 25 percent compared with vehicles manufactured in 2008. Environment Canada is also developing amendments to regulations under Canada's Environmental Protection Act of 1999 to further limit greenhouse gas emissions from light-duty vehicles for 2017 and later model years, as well as regulations to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from new heavy-duty vehicles .
In Mexico and Chile, transportation infrastructure is less developed than in the United States and Canada. With economic growth in the two countries from 2008 to 2035 projected to be stronger than in the United States and Canada, their transportation sectors are the fastest growing among all the OECD regions in the IEO2011 Reference case. Demand for transportation fuels in Mexico and Chile combined increases by 0.9 percent per year, from 2.8 quadrillion Btu in 2008 to 3.6 quadrillion Btu in 2035. Relatively strong GDP growth (3.7 percent per year), rising income per capita, and increasing levels of motorization contribute to the growth in demand for transportation fuels. Expanding trade with countries of North and South America and improvements in overall standards of living also contribute to the growth in transportation energy use in the two countries. In 2035, fuel use for road transport accounts for 89 percent of total transportation energy demand in Mexico/Chile.
Mexico will require major investments in infrastructure to support the growth of its transportation sector. The National Infrastructure Plan (NIP) envisions building some 300 infrastructure projects in multiple sectors to address current bottlenecks. In the transportation sector, the NIP proposes 100 new highway projects, including the development of an interstate highway system, 2,500 miles of new roads in rural areas, 3 new airports (with further expansion to 31), new intermodal railway corridors, 3 suburban passenger rail lines (to be built in the Mexico City area), 5 new seaports, and expansion of 22 existing ports . Although the NIP has experienced some setbacks in recent years, with some projects being no longer economically viable and others having been restructured, the Mexican government is committed to moving the NIP forward until its expected completion in 2012 .
In the near term, sales of light-duty vehicles in Mexico continue to increase with the improving economic climate and rising consumer confidence. In 2010, light-duty vehicle sales continued a slow recovery from the economic downturn of 2008-2009, posting an 8.7-percent increase over 2009 sales to 820,406 units but still remaining 20 percent below sales in 2008 . Imports of used cars from the United States may have contributed to the relatively slow growth of new vehicle sales. Since August 2005, when Mexico issued a decree in accordance with North American Free Trade Agreement provisions to allow imports of vehicles more than 10 years old, sales of used vehicles in Mexico have increased considerably . In the period from 2005 to 2008, Mexico reportedly imported nearly 2.5 million used vehicles from the United States .
In Chile, much of the activity in the transportation sector has been in repairing the damage done to the infrastructure as a result of the massive February 2010 earthquake—the world's fifth most powerful ever—that affected about three-fourths of the population . Approximately 965 miles of road, 212 bridges, and 9 airports were damaged by the earthquake. Overall, the cost to repair and rebuild the infrastructure has been estimated at $1.2 billion . Before the earthquake, Chile's Ministry of Public Works had announced plans to spend some $5 billion on 38 large-scale infrastructure projects in advance of the country's 200th year of independence . The plans included an expansion of Santiago International Airport, several reservoir and irrigation canal projects, shipping and coastal infrastructure improvements, and construction of a coastal road that would span two-thirds of the length of the country. The Ministry of Public Works has not yet announced whether those plans will be altered substantially as a result of the costs already incurred to repair the earthquake damage.
Demand for transportation fuels in OECD Europe remains flat in the IEO2011 Reference case, due to slow population growth, high transportation fuel costs, high vehicle saturation levels, fully established transportation networks with limited potential for growth, and continuous improvements in energy efficiency. Despite the slow population growth projected for OECD Europe, the region's economic growth continues at an average rate of 1.8 percent per year, and energy use for freight transportation grows by an average of 0.7 percent per year. With growth in fuel use for freight transport offsetting a projected decline in fuel use for passenger transport, total transportation energy use is projected to remain stable.
In 2010, sales of new vehicles in OECD Europe declined after government-sponsored vehicle scrappage schemes that were implemented as part of the monetary stimulus measures to combat the 2008â€“2009 recession came to an end in the second half of the year. Germany posted one of the highest reductions in new vehicle sales—a 23-percent decline from 2009 sales—among the countries of OECD Europe. Germany's vehicle scrappage scheme was the most far-reaching and the best-funded of any in the European Union, with a funding package worth about $7 billion supporting purchases of 2 million passenger cars in 2009. As a result, there was a marked correction in 2010 from the previous year's very high base . Passenger vehicle sales also contracted in Italy by 9 percent and in Greece by 36 percent in 2010, again a result of the ending of subsidy schemes. In France, the vehicle scrappage scheme was gradually scaled down from $1,430 per vehicle in 2009 to $1,070 in the first half of 2010 and $715 in the second half of 2010, with overall vehicle sales declining by 2.2 percent from the 2009 total.
The United Kingdom and Spain were the only two countries among OECD Europe's major vehicle markets that recorded sales growth in 2010 (2 percent and 3 percent, respectively) despite the ending of their scrappage schemes in the first half of the year . In the United Kingdom, the increase in vehicle sales was attributed primarily to large-scale orders from businesses as the scrappage scheme for private motorists ended . In Spain, strong vehicle sales in the first half of 2010, consisting largely of vehicle purchases in advance of a 2-percent increase in the value-added tax and the end of the scrappage subsidy in the second half of the year, boosted overall growth in vehicle sales for the year . In the short term, with an improving macroeconomic outlook and rising consumer confidence, sales of passenger vehicles in OECD Europe are expected to rebound.
Sustainable mobility remains the core strategy of transportation policy in OECD Europe. The strategy includes various policy measures aimed at improving the quality and efficiency of transportation systems. In the past few years, the European Commission has adopted several major initiatives promoting use of clean and energy-efficient vehicles, including the Commission's Directive on the Promotion of Clean and Energy Efficient Road Transport Vehicles, European Green Car Initiative, and Strategy for Clean and Energy Efficient Vehicles, among others . As part of those initiatives, the countries of OECD Europe have introduced various tax incentives for purchases of hybrid and electric vehicles (Table 16).
OECD Europe's national governments have allocated significant funds to promote mass adoption of electric vehicle technology and have set ambitious targets for electric vehicle penetration in the next few years. The German government allocated $715 million toward its goal of having 1 million electric vehicles on the roads by 2020 as part of its "National Electro-Mobility Development Plan," and France plans to spend around $2.1 billion with a target of having 2 million electric and hybrid cars on the roads by 2020 . In the United Kingdom, the government announced a new grant scheme for electric cars, which offers grants of up to $8,000 for nine models from January 1, 2011, reducing the cost of eligible cars by one-quarter. In addition, a new network of electric vehicle recharging points in streets, car parks, and commercial retail facilities is being developed .
Despite major government efforts to promote sales of electric vehicles (EVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) in OECD Europe, sales of the vehicles remain very low. In Spain, the government set a target of selling 2,000 electric vehicles with lithium ion batteries in 2009-2010 and 20,000 electric and hybrid vehicles in 2011. However, as of December 2010, only 98 EV passenger cars and 778 EVs of other types had been sold, with an average subsidy amounting to $4,700 per vehicle . In Germany, of the 49.6 million cars in operation, only 22,300 are hybrid vehicles and 1,500 vehicles are all-electric, comprising less than one-tenth of one percent of the country's total passenger vehicle fleet . The main barriers to mass penetration of EVs and PHEVs are their relatively high prices and the lack of requisite charging infrastructure. Although sales of EVs and hybrids undoubtedly will increase in the future, mass adoption of the new technologies is likely to take many years.
In the OECD Asia region, transportation energy use grows by a relatively modest average rate of 0.3 percent per year in the IEO2011 Reference case, from 7.4 quadrillion Btu in 2008 to 7.9 quadrillion Btu in 2035. Fully established transportation infrastructures, projected population declines, high motorization levels, and continued improvement in transport energy efficiency are the main factors limiting the growth of transportation energy demand in the long term (Figure 104).
In Japan, the earthquake and tsunami that struck in March 2011 caused substantial damage to energy and transportation infrastructures, creating significant uncertainty around demand for transportation fuels in the short term. In the long term, as Japan rebuilds its infrastructure, transportation energy use remains essentially unchanged at 4.0 quadrillion Btu in 2035 in the Reference case. With a projected decline in population (averaging 0.3 percent per year from 2008 to 2035), demand for passenger transportation also decreases gradually. As a result, energy use for passenger transport in 2035 is 4 percent below the 2008 level. Although Japan's GDP growth averages 0.5 percent per year over the period, its energy use for freight transportation increases by an average of only 0.2 percent per year.
Fuel use for road transportation accounted for approximately three-quarters of Japan's transportation energy consumption in 2008. Continuous improvement in vehicle fuel efficiency (promoted by the "Top Runner Standards," which require new vehicles to at least meet the fuel efficiency level of the most efficient existing vehicles) accounts for significant energy savings and a reduction in transportation fuel use over the projection. Market penetration by alternative technologies (hybrid, electric, natural gas, and some diesel-powered models) continues with support from government incentives aimed at reducing the price differential between the new technologies and conventional vehicles. Starting in April 2009, "eco-cars" have been exempted from an acquisition and tonnage tax for 3 years, and subsidies are offered as buyer incentives .
In 2009 and 2010, Japan registered robust growth in sales of hybrid vehicles, in part as a result of the scrappage scheme that was implemented to provide subsidies for purchases of new fuel-efficient vehicles . Toyota's hybrid Prius was Japan's best-selling vehicle in 2009 and 2010, breaking its annual sales record for a single model for the first time in 20 years with 315,669 units sold in 2010 . In support of further penetration of EVs and PHEVs, manufacturers are developing advanced energy management systems to optimize efficient use of electricity during vehicle recharge times. Toyota plans to launch a smart-grid electric power system to optimize electricity use for charging EVs and PHEVs by 2012 .
Japan has a highly developed air transportation infrastructure, with 176 airports, including 144 with paved runways . Japan's main airport is Narita International Airport, which serves Tokyo and its suburbs. The airport has recently completed the extension of its second runway . However, Japanese authorities announced plans to make Haneda International Airport, which also serves the Tokyo area and is located 30 minutes from downtown Tokyo, the main international hub for air travel in the country . In 2010, Haneda International Airport added a fourth runway, opened a new international terminal, and expanded flights to international destinations . Narita International Airport is considering a new terminal for low-cost carriers to capitalize on the growing market, with plans to convert the airport's existing cargo facilities, which currently are not being used, into a terminal for low-cost carriers .
Transportation energy use in South Korea grows by 0.6 percent per year in the IEO2011 Reference case. The country has OECD Asia's strongest projected GDP growth, averaging 2.9 percent per year from 2008 to 2035, and its transportation energy consumption per capita increases by an average rate of 0.5 percent per year while energy intensity per capita declines by 1.7 percent per year over the projection period, reflecting continuous gains in energy efficiency and South Korea's commitment to "green energy." In January 2009, the government launched a "Green New Deal" economic stimulus package, allocating $30.7 billion for renewable energy projects, energy-efficient buildings, low-carbon vehicles, and water and waste management . In July 2009, the government adopted a "Five-Year Green Growth Plan" for implementing a "low carbon, green growth vision" and allocating $83.6 billion for initiatives on climate change and energy, sustainable transportation, and the development of green technologies, absorbing the "Green New Deal" into the Five-Year Plan for years 2009-2012 .
The Five-Year Plan includes initiatives for further expansion of South Korea's high-speed railway network in order to meet a goal of increasing the passenger transport load of trains36 from 18 percent in 2009 to 26 percent in 2020, and the passenger transport load of metropolitan mass transit from 50 percent to 65 percent over that same time period . The goal will be achieved by further expanding the high-speed train system, Korea Train eXpress (KTX), which started operation in 2004 and in 2008 accounted for more than 50 percent of all long-distance passenger rail travel . In November 2010, an upgrade to the KTX high-speed line connecting Daegu and Busan in the southeast was completed. Another upgrade connecting Seoul to Mokpo in the southwest, which involves conversion of the conventional line to high-speed rail, is due for completion in 2014 . Other upgrades to high-speed rail are in various stages of development.
Passenger air traffic in South Korea has expanded rapidly as business travel and tourism have increased. Incheon International Airport, which serves the capital city of Seoul and is the country's largest, is being expanded from a current capacity of 44 million passengers to 62 million passengers and a cargo handling capacity of 5.8 million metric tons . The airport is a premier hub in northeast Asia and has received a designation as the "Best Airport Worldwide" by the Airports Council International for 6 years in a row .
Australia and New Zealand
Transportation energy use in Australia and New Zealand grows by an average of 0.7 percent per year in the IEO2011 Reference case, based on relatively moderate population growth and 2.7-percent average annual GDP growth over the projection period. Increasing freight transportation is the key factor behind the growth in demand for transportation fuels, with freight transportation accounting for 11 percent of the region's total transportation energy use in 2035, up from 8 percent in 2008.
In Australia, most of the projected increase in freight transportation sector is the result of growth in the country's mineral exports . Significant investments have been made in port infrastructure and freight railways in Queensland, Western Australia, and New South Wales. Several ports have added coal terminals and are constructing freight railways to connect coal mines to ports. The government of Western Australia is conducting a feasibility study to assess development of the proposed Oakajee project, which will include an integrated iron ore port and freight railway network serving the state's iron ore industry . In June 2010, the state government of New South Wales announced large investments in transportation infrastructure, including expansions and upgrades of marine ports, roads, mass transit systems, and high-speed rail, amounting to more than $60 billion over the next 4 years .
The projected average growth rate for transportation energy use in the non-OECD countries from 2008 to 2035 is 2.6 percent per year—almost 9 times the corresponding rate for OECD countries. The use of liquids in the non-OECD transportation sector doubles over the projection period in the IEO2011 Reference case, as total transportation energy demand grows from 38.9 quadrillion Btu in 2008 to 77.3 quadrillion Btu in 2035 (Figure 105). The transportation sector accounts for about 75 percent of the increase in the total liquids consumption in non-OECD countries from 2008 to 2035. In 2008, non-OECD countries accounted for 40 percent of the world's energy use for transportation; in 2035, their share is 54 percent.
Non-OECD Asia has the highest growth rate in transportation energy use among the regions in the IEO2011 Reference case, exceeding transportation energy demand in the OECD Americas by 2025. Non-OECD Asia's economies account for 59 percent of the increase in world transportation energy demand from 2008 to 2035, with an annual average growth rate of 3.6 percent. Consumption of gasoline and diesel fuel in the region more than triples from 2008 to 2035. Over the same period, non-OECD Asia's share of world transportation liquids consumption increases from 17 percent to 30 percent. Large and growing populations, rising per-capita incomes, and rapid urbanization are the main contributors to growth in transportation energy use in non-OECD Asia, only somewhat moderated by government policies on fuel price subsidies, penetration rates of advanced and alternative-fuel vehicles, and the pace of development of public mass transit infrastructure.
China has been, and continues to be, the fastest-growing economy among non-OECD countries and the fastest-growing consumer of transportation fuels (Figure 106). From 2008 to 2035, China's GDP increases by an average of 5.7 percent per year, and its use of liquid fuels for passenger and freight transportation increases by 4.4 and 4.5 percent per year, respectively. From 1998 to 2008, the combined length of all China's highways increased by an average of 11.3 percent per year, while growth in expressways averaged 21.4 percent per year. Over the same period, highway passenger travel (measured in passenger-miles) and highway freight travel (measured in ton-miles) increased by annual averages of 7.7 and 19.6 percent, respectively .
Much of the growth in China's transportation energy consumption is for road use. The number of light-duty vehicles in China grew by an average of 24 percent per year from 2000 to 2008, and the total number of vehicles nearly quadrupled, from 22.3 million in 2000 to 86 million in 2008 . China's motorization level is estimated at 32 motor vehicles 37 per 1,000 people in 2007, as compared with 820 in the United States, 552 in Europe, 595 in Japan, and 338 in South Korea . China's motorization is likely to increase strongly through 2035, although not to the levels seen in many OECD countries in the IEO2011 Reference case. Although China's passenger transportation energy use per capita triples in the Reference case, in 2035 it still is only about one-third that of South Korea.
Growing demand for passenger vehicles in China is a result of increasing income per capita and lifestyle modernization that includes greater mobility. In 2010, China was the world's largest vehicle market for the second year in a row, registering 32-percent annual growth. Sales of passenger vehicles increased to 13.9 million units in 2010, and total vehicle sales, including heavy commercial vehicles, increased to 18.1 million units . Strong sales in 2009 and 2010 were spurred by the government's numerous stimulus measures, including sales tax rebates for purchases of small cars (engine size 1.6 liters or less) and one-time subsidies for farmers who scrapped their three-wheel or low-speed trucks and replaced them with light trucks or minibuses with engine size less than 1.3 liters. In 2010, government incentives included a 7.5-percent tax break on small cars and subsidies of $750 to $2,700 in rural areas to promote sales of new fuel-efficient vehicles . The program proved to be very successful, with small vehicles accounting for 70 percent of all passenger vehicle sales in 2009 . Vehicles sales are expected to moderate somewhat in 2011 as government incentives are withdrawn, but the market for light-duty vehicles in China is expected to continue expanding strongly in the medium term as per-capita incomes continue to increase.
In addition to promoting fuel-efficient vehicles, China's government has made a commitment to increase sales of "new energy vehicles" through consumer subsidies, incentives for domestic auto manufacturers to develop local capacity to produce alternative-fuel vehicles, and development of recharging infrastructure for electric vehicles. Support for the development of "new energy" vehicles and the capability of the domestic automobile industry to produce them in large numbers is a key component of China's 12th Five-Year Plan, which identifies the alternative vehicle industry as one of seven strategic emerging industries. The government plans to invest an estimated $15 billion in alternative-energy vehicles over the next 10 years .
In 2010, China launched a pilot program in five cities (Shanghai, Changchun, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, and Hefei) that offers subsidies of $9,150 for purchases of EVs, up to $7,620 for PHEVs, and $460 for other hybrid vehicles (which is equivalent to the traditional subsidy for cars with small engines) . The five cities were selected on the basis of their access to domestic car manufacturers with capabilities for mass production of EVs and PHEVs. The Chinese automobile industry views the government-mandated domestic electrification as an opportunity to build the capacity necessary for establishing itself as a global leader in the electric vehicle market. So far, most large Chinese manufacturers have announced plans to build alternative-fueled vehicles in response to government subsidies, with a few domestically produced vehicles already sold in the Chinese market, including the Besturn B70 by FAW Group Corporation and E6 electric vehicles and F3DM plug-in hybrids by BYD Company . In addition to the central government's subsidies, local governments also offer subsidies for purchase of EVs and PHEVs. For example, electric vehicles receive local government subsidies of $1,525 to $3,050 per vehicle in Hefei and $6,100 to $7,620 per vehicle in Shanghai .
In addition to subsidies for private alternative vehicles, China launched a separate subsidy in 20 pilot cities for "new energy" public vehicle fleets, with the goal of speeding up structural transition of the automotive industry and increasing annual production capacity to 500,000 EVs and PHEVs, including light commercial vehicles and buses, in 2012 (from 2,100 in 2008). In comparison, Japan and South Korea combined are expected to produce a total of 1.1 million and North America 267,000 hybrid or all-electric light vehicles in 2012 . The Chinese government has set an ambitious goal to have between 500,000 and 1 million electric vehicles by 2015 and 5 million by 2020 . The government is also building charging stations and battery-swapping networks for alternative vehicles, with a goal of installing 75 charging stations and 6,000 charging poles in 27 cities by the end of 2010 and 10,000 charging stations by 2016 . In addition to the central government's plans for infrastructure to support electric vehicles, provincial and local governments and power companies are joining forces to build charging networks in major cities, with the goal of building a nationwide charging network by 2020 .
The transition to electrification of the Chinese vehicle fleet may take time and concerted effort on the part of the government before mass adaptation of alternative-fueled vehicles technologies becomes a reality. Sales of alternative-fuel vehicles have been minimal to date, with BYD selling only 54 EVs and 290 PHEVs between January and October 2010, and Changan Auto discontinuing its hybrid Jiexun model because of poor sales . Sales of Toyota's Prius model in China, at around 4,000 vehicles per year over the past 3 years, have been well below expectations.
The pace of motorization in China is raising concerns about oil supply security, increasing congestion in major cities, and high levels of air pollution in urban areas resulting from a rapidly expanding vehicle fleet. If China's motorization continues to follow its GDP growth, the total number of vehicles could expand by one-third, to around 290 million vehicles, by 2020 . The growth of vehicle sales in China has been strong over the past 15 years. In Beijing, for example, there were only 1 million vehicles on the road in 1997 and 2 million in 2003, as compared with 4 million in 2008 . Rapid motorization and high concentrations of vehicles have led to serious congestion problems in China's metropolitan areas. From 2000 to 2006, road density (measured as road space per car) fell from 52 to 33 miles in Beijing and from 998 to 262 miles in Shanghai, with a national average reduction of more than 50 percent. Over the same period, road space increased by 62 percent in Beijing and 120 percent in Shanghai, indicating that the number of vehicles is increasing faster than road space in most Chinese cities .
In Beijing, concerns about rising congestion have prompted municipal authorities to cap the number of new vehicle registrations at 240,000 per year, or about one-third of the city's total vehicle sales in 2010. Other large cities also are considering restrictions on new car registrations. Shanghai, which has been restricting new registrations for many years to protect the streets in its ancient historic district, has about one-third as many registered vehicles as Beijing, even though population levels in the two cities are similar. In comparison, other cities—such as Guangzhou in southern China, which has a well developed and expanding subway network—have not experienced traffic congestion problems as severe as those in Beijing and are not planning restrictive measures that may discourage vehicle sales or otherwise have negative impacts on local economic growth .
China is pursuing large-scale plans for expansion of high-speed rail and mass transit networks. Expenditure for railways was the single largest component of the government's economic stimulus package adopted in 2008 in the wake of the global economic downturn. From 2009 to 2012, the government plans to invest $303.7 billion in rail construction , with plans to extend the rail network by 24,900 miles to a total of 74,600 miles by 2020 . The government expects to have some 8,100 miles of high-speed rail installed and 42 lines in operation by 2012 and 10,000 miles installed by 2020 .
China's current 4,680-mile high-speed rail network is the largest and fastest in the world . Within the next decade, all provincial capitals and cities with more than 500,000 inhabitants will be connected by high-speed rail, providing rail access to 90 percent of the population. High-speed rail will reduce the travel times between Beijing and provincial capitals significantly. Travel time between Beijing and Tianjin will be reduced to 1 hour, and trips between Beijing and cities in western and southern China will be reduced to between 6 and 7 hours . The world's longest high-speed rail line, stretching 819 miles between Beijing and Shanghai, will reduce travel time between the two cities from the current 10 hours to about 4 hours .
As China's intercity rail networks have expanded, its urban commuter railways have also proliferated in response to rapid urbanization. Currently, China is developing some 60 subway projects in more than 20 cities . At the end of 2009, metro and light rail lines had a combined length of 617 miles. Shanghai and Beijing had the longest networks, at 186 miles and 155 miles, respectively. Both cities are expanding their rail systems, with Shanghai adding 75 miles in 2010 and Beijing extending lines to 229 miles by 2010 and 349 miles by 2015. Between 2011 and 2015, China plans annual expenditures of $88 billion on railway infrastructure, $37 billion on subway infrastructure, and $24 billion on rolling stock .
India's transportation energy use is projected to grow at the fastest rate in the world, averaging 5.5 percent per year in the IEO2011 Reference case, compared with the world average of 1.4 percent per year. Transportation energy use in India more than quadruples, from 2.0 quadrillion Btu in 2008 to 8.7 quadrillion Btu in 2035. Road travel leads the expansion of transportation energy use, with energy use per capita for passenger vehicles increasing threefold. Demand for personal transportation is growing rapidly in India, with much of it being accounted for by small automobiles and vehicles with two or three wheels. In 2010, despite the end of economic stimulus measures introduced in 2008 in response to the global economic downturn, vehicle sales in India continued to expand strongly. Following a 19-percent increase from 2008 to 2009, sales of domestically manufactured vehicles increased to nearly 1.9 million units in 2010 (from 1.4 million in 2009), and total vehicle sales increased by almost 31 percent to 14.8 million units (from 11.3 million in 2009) . The implementation of new emissions standards in 13 major cities contributed to higher vehicle prices in 2010, as manufacturers offered models with new engine options, but demand continued to increase . In the next few years, robust GDP growth and rising per-capita income are expected to support continued strong sales growth in India's automobile market. The country's demographics, with 600 million people under 25 years old, offer some of the best prospects in the world for automobile market expansion.
Roads are India's predominant mode of travel, accounting for around 90 percent of total transportation energy use over the past 10 years . India has the second-largest road network in the world after the United States . The road network increased from around 1.2 million miles in 1990 to around 2 million miles in 2008, and the total number of registered motor vehicles increased from 2.1 million in 1991 to 72.7 million in 2004. National highways connecting different Indian states make up about 2 percent of the total road network and state highways about 4 percent. The remaining 94 percent consists of rural and district roads. National highways, many of which are not linked to major economic and population centers, carry about 40 percent of the total traffic.
In 1999, India's national government launched a $12 billion National Highway Development Project to increase the capacity of national highways, including the Golden Quadrilateral project connecting four major cities; North-South and East-West corridors; and additional roads connecting to ports. With public and private investment, the length of the national highway network has quadrupled over the past 20 years, from about 10,000 miles in the 1990s to 41,500 miles in 2008.
India's government is also investing in the development of rural and district roads. In its 11th five-year plan (2007-2012), the government planned to connect state and district roads to national highways and integrate rural and district roads with the state highways. In the 12th five-year plan (2013-2017), it has targeted an investment of $1 trillion for infrastructure projects, with a goal of raising at least $300 billion from private funds . Development of the country's infrastructure is one of the key priorities for India's government, as the rapidly growing economy has been placing significant demand on its transportation system, and existing bottlenecks in both urban and rural infrastructure have been seen as eroding the country's competitiveness. Expansion of the nation's transportation infrastructure will be essential for future economic growth.
India's automobile producers manufactured 2.6 million vehicles in 2009, making it the world's seventh-largest producer of motor vehicles . The vehicle market in India is supported by the country's strong economic growth: GDP grew by 7.6 percent in the 2009-2010 fiscal year and 8.9 percent in the first half of the 2010-2011 fiscal year . India's motor vehicle manufacturers aspire to improve their market share of the world's automotive sector. Rising per-capita incomes are expected to support strong growth in motor vehicle sales over the next few years, with analysts projecting 16- to 20-percent growth in the light-vehicle segment for 2010 and 2011 and 19-percent growth in the commercial-vehicle segment.
In 2010, India launched a National Ethanol Blending Programme, establishing a 5-percent mandatory ethanol blending standard in 20 states, and started selling blended fuel in 14 of the Programme's states, while increasing regulated prices for ethanol . Supply availability remains a key challenge to the program's success. The government announced a 5-percent mandatory ethanol blend in October 2006, which was delayed until October 2009 because of disappointing sugarcane production in that year, along with a molasses shortage. In addition to ethanol, Indian Railways plans to establish four biodiesel production plants. India will continue to pursue development of blended transportation fuels as crude oil prices rise while the country's dependence on imported oil increases. It appears unlikely that India will be able meet its 20-percent blending target by 2017, given its current level of ethanol production and the need for additional government incentives to stimulate further growth.
Other non-OECD Asia
In non-OECD Asia outside China and India, burgeoning demand for transportation has led some countries to plan ambitious infrastructure improvement projects. In the IEO2011 Reference case, transportation energy use in the nations of non-OECD Asia, excluding China and India, grows by 1.8 percent per year from 2008 to 2035. In Indonesia, for example, the government's Medium-Term Development Plan calls for investment of some $140 billion in infrastructure projects between 2010 and 2014, including plans to build 14 new airports and 53 miles of railway and improve the capacity of 1,625 miles of roads . The Indonesian government expects public-private partnerships to fund nearly 65 percent of the infrastructure projects .
Indonesia is the world's largest exporter of thermal coal, and there are plans to further expand freight railways and marine ports to increase export capacity in the coming years. Indonesia also plans to construct a 190-mile coal railway line in southern Sumatra, to be completed by 2014, with the capacity to transport 27 million metric tons of coal; an 80-mile coal railway in East Kalimantan connecting a coal mine in Muara Wahau to the coast; and a coal railway in Central Kalimantan, to be completed by 2013, with the capacity to transport 10 million metric tons for 10 years and then expanding to a capacity of 20 million metric tons .
Private vehicle ownership has expanded rapidly in Indonesia over the past few years, creating congestion problems and placing a significant burden on road infrastructure. To address the congestion, a mass rapid transport system is being developed in Jakarta's metropolitan area. It will consist of a 9-mile rail line with a capacity to carry 400,000 passengers daily. However, the project only recently entered the design stage, and it will not be operational until at least 2016 . In August 2009, the Indonesian government approved a new bill designed to cut congestion and generate more income for local governments to use on transportation infrastructure projects. The bill calls for a tax of up to 2 percent for a first vehicle or motorcycle and a tax of 2 to 10 percent on a vehicle owner's second or subsequent vehicle, with a requirement that at least 10 percent of tax proceeds be used by local governments for transportation infrastructure projects .
In May 2010, plans were announced to build elevated roads in Jakarta, linking the south, central, and east parts of the city to help reduce congestion problems for commuters. Other proposed measures include a vehicle occupancy requirement that would increase the required number of occupants per passenger vehicle. Such congestion management measures may not be sufficient, however, given the rate of increase in the number of vehicles on the roads. Without an adequate mass transit system in Jakarta and other urban areas, Indonesia's serious traffic congestion problems are likely to remain unabated .
Another country in the non-OECD Asia region that is attempting to improve the operation of its transportation network is Malaysia. The country's New Economic Model, designed to foster a high-income economy by 2020, involves large investments in transportation infrastructure. Projects under consideration include development of Kuala Lumpur's mass rapid transit system—the largest infrastructure project in Malaysia—as well as expansion of the city's light rail transit system. Upgrades to rural road infrastructure and the connectivity of existing city clusters, among other projects, are also planned under the New Economic Model, which calls for the development of a multi-modal transport network to facilitate trade and enhance the country's productivity .
Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia
Transportation sector energy use in non-OECD Europe and Eurasia is projected to grow at an annual average rate of 1.0 percent, from 7.2 quadrillion Btu in 2008 to 9.5 quadrillion Btu in 2035 (Figure 107). Growth in the region's transportation energy use results primarily from increases in private vehicle ownership, particularly in the countries of the former Soviet Union, where rising per-capita incomes and higher levels of economic activity lead to higher demand for personal motorized vehicles.
In the countries of non-OECD Europe and Eurasia, GDP growth of 2.7 percent per year from 2008 to 2035 leads to higher transportation energy consumption per capita, increasing by an average of 1.2 percent per year over the projection period despite virtually flat population levels. Energy use for freight transportation grows more rapidly, by an average of 2.2 percent per year, reflecting increased trade and improvements in the countries' standards of living.
In Russia, transportation energy consumption increases on average by 0.6 percent per year from 2008 to 2035 in the IEO2011 Reference case, even as the population declines by an average of 0.5 percent per year. The growth in transportation energy use results primarily from expanding private vehicle ownership and freight transportation. From 2003 through 2008, sales of light-duty vehicles in Russia registered strong growth. Vehicle sales fell by 49 percent in 2009, however, following the global recession and a severe economic downturn in Russia . In response, in March 2010, the Russian government implemented a scrappage scheme that offered a subsidy of $1,665 to consumers who replaced vehicles more than 10 years old with new, domestically manufactured vehicles. The scrappage scheme provided a highly effective stimulus for the passenger car market, leading to a robust recovery in light-duty vehicle sales, which increased by 30 percent to 1.9 million units in 2010. Russia's largest car manufacturer, AvtoVAZ, with its best-selling model Lada, became the main beneficiary of the scheme, with full-year sales growing by 48 percent to 517,147 units . The government extended funding for the scrappage scheme to 2011, and as a result further increases in passenger vehicle sales are expected.
In the IEO2011 Reference case, transportation energy consumption in the Middle East grows by an average of 2.2 percent per year from 2008 to 2035, to a total of 9.5 quadrillion Btu (Figure 108). Although the Middle East has a relatively small population, rapid population growth and continued urbanization are expected to increase demand for transportation. Sustained economic expansion, growing population, and continuous subsidies to end users, which are unlikely to be completely eliminated in some countries in the region, support strong increases in demand for transport fuels through the medium term.
Oil and natural gas producing countries in the Middle East have seen some of the fastest growth in transportation energy demand in the world. From 2000 to 2008, demand for gasoline and diesel fuel increased by 5.2 percent per year in Iran, 6.2 percent per year in Saudi Arabia, 7.0 percent per year in the United Arab Emirates, and 17 percent per year in Qatar. One explanation for the rapid demand increases is the fact that governments have maintained end-user subsidies despite high world oil prices, and the subsidies have discouraged conservation and efficiency improvements . Prices for transportation fuels in the Middle East are among the lowest in the world. For example, in mid-November 2010, retail prices for gasoline were $0.37 per gallon in Iran and $0.87 in Kuwait, and retail prices for diesel fuel were $0.06 per gallon in Iran, $0.25 in Saudi Arabia, $0.49 in Bahrain, and $0.72 in Qatar .
The IEO2011 Reference case assumes gradual phasing out of the transportation fuel subsidies in Middle Eastern countries, although it may take some time for governments to implement such changes successfully. In addition, the social and political unrest that began in the region in December 2010 makes any efforts to remove subsidies in the short term even more unlikely. Iran offers a good example of the difficulties of removing subsidies.
Even before recent events, Iran had sought to reform its extremely costly subsidy system for some time, but concerns remained that significant subsidy reform could trigger civil unrest, as happened briefly in 2007 when fuel rationing was initially enacted. In 2010, in its fifth development plan (2010-2015), the government enacted a subsidy reform law, which calls for increases in petroleum product prices (including gasoline, gasoil, kerosene, and fuel oil) to 90 percent of free-on-board prices in the Persian Gulf. The subsidy reform is expected to have a more significant impact on demand for transportation fuels than previous consumption management plans, such as gasoline rationing, which began in 2007. Since 2007, the gasoline quota for private motorists has been reduced from 120 liters per month to the current 60 liters per month in 4 steps. Due to stepwise tightening of the quota over time, the impact on gasoline consumption has not been significant . With the government reportedly enacting a plan to eliminate nearly all government subsidies by the end of 2014, transportation fuel prices are expected to continue rising in the coming years. However, the timing and scope of the subsidy cuts for transportation fuels remains unclear, because such measures are unpopular with consumers and could lead to civil unrest .
High world oil prices have increased revenues from oil exports in many of the exporting countries of the Middle East, and as a result several transportation infrastructure projects, including those for mass transit, are underway. In Saudi Arabia, plans for transportation infrastructure expansion are centered around the needs of its growing population, continuous urbanization, the growth of the tourist industry, and increasing trade. Under the Eighth Development Plan, several major infrastructure projects were implemented, including construction of new roads, rail networks, and airports. From 2004 to 2008, the length of the national road network increased by 11.5 percent, from 102.5 thousand miles to about 114 thousand miles, and the number of registered vehicles reached an estimated 5.4 million, with private cars and light trucks constituting 96 percent of the total .
Major railroad expansion is under way in Saudi Arabia, including three projects that will add 2,500 miles of railway lines as the country prepares to become part of the Gulf Cooperation Council's Gulf Railway Network. Rail expansion projects include a 600-mile line connecting the capital Riyadh to Jeddah; a 75-mile line from Dammam to Jubail; a 315-mile high-speed passenger railway connecting Mecca to Medina; and a 1,400-mile line, the North-South Railway, that will connect mines in northern Saudi Arabia with industrial facilities in Riyadh and in Ras al-Zour on the Persian Gulf .
Saudi Arabia's King Abdul-Aziz International Airport in Jeddah is being expanded to increase annual passenger capacity from 15 million to 80 million passengers by 2035. The Ninth Development Plan envisages construction of a Ras Al-Zour port, completion of the Phase 1 expansion of King Abdul-Aziz International Airport, construction of Prince Mohammed bin Abdul-Aziz Airport in Medina with an annual passenger handling capacity of 3 million, construction of new Taif and Tabuk regional airports that will serve millions of pilgrims visiting Saudi Arabia annually , and completion of three railway expansion projects . The General Authority of Civil Aviation of Saudi Arabia plans to invest between $10 billion and $20 billion on developing and upgrading airports through 2020, with private investors set to contribute up to $10 billion .
Saudi Arabia remains the only country in the world where women are legally prohibited from driving a vehicle. Although women are allowed to own cars, they are required to have a chauffeur or a male family member drive their vehicles for them. Although social and economic pressure to resolve the issue has been significant, progress on lifting the ban has been slow . Private vehicle ownership by women has been one of the fastest-growing consumer segments in Saudi Arabia in recent years , increasing by 60 percent from 2003 to 2006, with an estimated 75,522 women owning 120,334 vehicles at the end of 2006 . In the medium term, lifting a ban on female driving is unlikely to increase passenger vehicle sales significantly, because the majority of women who have the means to purchase a vehicle already own one .
Rising fuel costs and increasing congestion have prompted many countries in the Middle East to take steps to develop urban mass transit systems, particularly metro rail systems. In 2009, Dubai launched metro and monorail networks. In November 2010, Saudi Arabia opened Al Mashaaer Al Mugaddassah Metro Line in Mecca, which connects the holy sites of Arafat, Muzdalifah, and Mina. The line provides transport for about 3.5 million pilgrims who arrive in Mecca annually to perform Hajj. The line from Mina to Arafat can transport 500,000 pilgrims in 6 to 8 hours and has been effective in helping to reduce from 70,000 to 25,000 the number of buses needed to transport pilgrims. The metro is expected to reach full capacity in 2011, carrying 72,000 passengers in each direction per hour .
In Amman, Jordan, construction of a Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) line is under way, scheduled for completion by 2012. The system will have a transport capacity of 6,000 passengers per hour per direction along three corridors and will link areas of high population density in the south and east with education and employment centers in the north and west . Abu Dhabi is developing a tram and an 81-mile metro rail network, which are scheduled to be operational by 2014 and 2016, respectively . This project is part of the Abu Dhabi Master Transport Plan 2030, which also includes development of 360 miles of high-speed rail and 217 miles of light rail tram network .
Oman plans to develop a 620-mile national railway system in four stages that will incorporate double tracks and trains operating at speeds up to 125 mile per hour and will include a provision to introduce high-speed trains in the future. Construction of the rail network is expected to commence in 2012 . Finally, the Gulf Cooperation Council has announced plans to build a railway network to link Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, UAE, and Oman by 2017. The $30 billion railway project will be approximately 1,370 miles long and will be connected to the planned Middle East rail network .
Transportation energy use in Africa grows by 1.5 percent per year in the Reference case, to 5.3 quadrillion Btu in 2035 (Figure 108). Transportation infrastructure is still in early development stages in most African countries, and major investments will be required to achieve the levels necessary to support economic growth. The Economic Commission for Africa has estimated that the continent needs to invest at least $20 billion per year in infrastructure development until 2015 in order to effectively integrate Africa with the global economy .
Central and South America
Transportation energy use in Central and South America grows by 1.9 percent per year in the Reference case, to 10.7 quadrillion Btu in 2035 (Figure 109). Brazil, the region's largest economy, continues to show strong growth in its transportation sector following its success in achieving economic stability. The country experienced only a mild impact from the global economic recession, and demand for transportation fuels has continued growing with the expansion of road and air travel as well as transport of freight and agricultural goods by rail.
The automotive market in Central and South America has been growing in recent years. In 2010, light-duty vehicle sales in Brazil increased by 10.6 percent, supported by the strong economic recovery and greater availability of consumer credit. December 2010 marked the best month for light-duty vehicle sales in Brazil's history, with a 30-percent increase in vehicle sales from December 2009, to 361,230 units . Argentina's vehicle market also recovered strongly in 2010 after declining in 2009 as a result of the global recession. In 2010, motor vehicle sales in Argentina rose by 43 percent from the 2009 total, and vehicle production increased by 41 percent in response to an active local market and strong export demand .
Brazil is the world's second-largest producer of biofuels, after the United States . Since the launch of a National Alcohol Program in 1975 to promote the use of ethanol in the transportation fuel mix, ethanol consumption in Brazil has been growing steadily, from 0.1 billion gallons in 1975 to 5.7 billion gallons in 2010 . The increase in ethanol consumption was supported by the launch of flexible-fuel vehicle (FFV) production in 2003.38 In 2009, FFVs accounted for 95 percent of all new vehicle sales in Brazil . With a continuous increase in FFV sales, the ethanol share of Brazil's transportation fuel market is likely to expand.
- World energy demand and economic outlook
- Liquid fuels
- Natural gas
- Industrial sector energy consumption
- Transportation sector energy consumption
- Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions
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