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International Energy Outlook 2011

Release Date: September 19, 2011   |  Next Scheduled Release Date: July 2013   |  Report Number: DOE/EIA-0484(2011)

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Table 17. Emissions mitigation goals announced by selected countries (million metric tons carbon dioxide)
Country/region Reduction goal Carbon dioxide
emissions goal
for 2020a		 IEO2011
Reference case
projection for 2020		 2008
emissions		 Emissions
reduction
needed to achieve goal		 Average annual
percent change
from 2008
emissions needed
to achieve goal
Countries with goals for total emissions reductions
United States To 17 percent below 2005 level by 2020 4,977 5,777 5,838 800 -1.30%
OECD Europeb To 20 percent below 1990 level by 2020 3,301 4,147 4,345 846 -2.30%
  To 30 percent below 1990 level by 2020 2,889 4,147 4,345 1,249 -3.30%
Japan To 25 percent below 1990 level by 2020 785 1,142 1,215 357 -3.60%
Brazil By 36 to 39 percent relative to projected level in 2020 353-371 579 423 208-226 -1.1% - -1.5%
Russia To between 15 and 25 percent below 1990 level by 2020 1,776-2,013 1,607 1,663 -- --
Countries with goals for carbon dioxide intensity reductions
China To between 40 and 45 percent below 2005 level by 2020 10,149-11,071c 10,128 6,801 -- --
India To between 20 and 25 percent below 2005 level by 2020 2,512-2,679c 2,056 1,462 -- --

aIt is assumed that country goals are applied proportionally to energy-related carbon dioxide emissions and other greenhouse gases.
bBecause IEO2011 does not model the European Union as a region, emissions and projections for OECD Europe are used as a proxy. The reduction goal is based on 20 percent of the 1990 level for OECD Europe. Although some countries in OECD Europe are not members ofthe European Union, the European Union also includes some countries that are not included in the OECD Europe region. On balance, OECD Europe's 1990 emissions were 2 percent higher than the European Union's emissions. In 2005 and 2008, OECD Europe's emissions were about 2 percent and 3 percent lower than the European Union's emissions, respectively. The difference could be more pronounced in future years,depending on emissions from the various countries. COP-16 omitted Turkey from the European Union's commitments; IEO2011 includes Turkey as part of OECD Europe.
cCarbon dioxide intensity is defined as emissions per unit of output (as measured by GDP expressed in purchasing power parity). The carbon dioxideemissions goal is calculated by multiplying the 2020 carbon intensity goal by IEO2011 GDP projections for 2020.
Source: Reduction goals: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, National Reports, Appendix I—Quantified Economy-wide Emissions Targets for 2020, website http://unfccc.int/home/items/5265.php. Reduction goal targets: Estimated based on announced targets, and EIA, estimates. 2008 emissions: EIA, International Energy Statistics database (as of March 2011), website www.eia.gov/ies. Goal year projected Reference case carbon dioxide emissions: EIA, World Energy Projection System Plus (2011).

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