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International Energy Outlook 2013

Release Date: July 25, 2013   |  Next Release Date: September 2014   |  correction |  Report Number: DOE/EIA-0484(2013)

Chapter footnotes

Highlights

2OECD member countries as of September 1, 2012, are the United States, Canada, Mexico, Austria, Belgium, Chile, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand. For statistical reporting purposes, Israel is included in OECD Europe.

3The International Monetary Fund (World Energy Outlook 2008, October 2008, p. 43) defines a global recession to be when the world's annual gross domestic product (GDP)—on a purchasing power parity basis—increases by less than 3.0 percent. According to Oxford Economics, world GDP grew by 2.7 percent in 2008, -1.1 percent in 2009, and 4.9 percent in 2010. However, the National Bureau of Economic Research declared that the U.S. recession began in December 2007 and ended in June 2009.

4Nominal dollars per barrel of Brent crude oil.

5In IEO2013, the term petroleum and other liquid fuels includes a full array of liquid product supplies. Petroleum liquids include crude oil and lease condensate, natural gas plant liquids, bitumen, extra-heavy oil, and refinery gains. Other liquids include gas-to-liquids, coal-to-liquids, kerogen, and biofuels.

6U.S. Energy Information Administration, Technically Recoverable Shale Oil and Shale Gas Resources: An Assessment of 137 Shale Formations in 41 Countries Outside the United States (Washington, DC: June 2013).

Chapter 1 - World energy demand and economic outlook

7For consistency, OECD includes all members of the organization as of September 1, 2012, throughout all the time series included in this report. For statistical purposes, Israel is reported as part of OECD Europe in IEO2013. See Appendix M for the complete list of regional definitions used in IEO2013.

8In IEO2013, the term petroleum and other liquid fuels includes a full array of liquid product supplies. Petroleum liquids include crude oil and lease condensate, natural gas plant liquids, bitumen, extra-heavy oil, and refinery gains. Other liquids include gas-to-liquids, coal-to-liquids, kerogen, and biofuels.

9A feed-in tariff is an incentive structure to encourage the adoption of renewable energy through government legislation. Under a feed-in tariff structure, regional or national electric utilities are obligated to purchase renewable electricity at a specified premium price, in order to allow renewable energy sources to overcome cost disadvantages.

10Delivered energy consumption in the end-use sector consists of primary energy consumption and retail sales of electricity, excluding electrical system energy losses.

11Total delivered energy use in the residential and commercial sectors includes electricity, natural gas, liquid fuels, and coal. Although renewable energy use in the electric power sector is reported for most countries, data on the direct end use of renewable energy outside the United States can be mixed and inconsistent. As a result, the IEO2013 projections do not include international renewable energy consumption in the end-use sectors.

12The purchasing power parity exchange rate is the exchange rate at which the currency of one country is converted into that of another country to buy the same amount of goods and services in each country.

13A large portion of Japanese government debt is held by domestic residents, which is not necessarily the case in other highly indebted countries.

14The International Monetary Fund (World Energy Outlook 2008, October 2008, p. 43) defines a global recession to be when the world's annual gross domestic product (GDP)—on a purchasing power parity basis—increases by less than 3.0 percent. According to Oxford Economics, world GDP grew by 2.7 percent in 2008, -1.1 percent in 2009, and 4.9 percent in 2010. However, the National Bureau of Economic Research declared that the U.S. recession began in December 2007 and ended in June 2009.

Chapter 2 - World petroleum and other liquid fuels

15For a full discussion of the High Oil and Gas Resource case, see "Oil price and production trends in AEO2013" and "U.S. reliance on imported liquid fuels in alternative scenarios" in EIA's Annual Energy Outlook 2013, DOE/EIA-0383(2013) (Washington, DC: April 2013), pp. 30-39.

16See also "Could the United States become the leading global producer of liquid fuels, and how much does it matter to U.S. and world energy markets?" in EIA's This Week in Petroleum (December 19, 2012), http://www.eia.gov/oog/info/twip/twiparch/2012/121219/twipprint.html.

17The benchmark oil price in IEO2013 is based on spot prices for Brent crude oil (commonly cited as Dated Brent in trade publications), an international benchmark for light sweet crude oil.

18Natural gas liquids (NGL) include both NGPL and refinery production of ethane, propane, butane, and pentanes plus.

19For most countries and organizations, LPG consists of propane and butane, and mixtures of the two are traded on the open waters. NGL encompasses LPG as well as ethane and pentanes plus. However, EIA's current definition of LPG does also include ethane.

20Above-ground constraints refer to those nongeological factors that could affect supply, including but not limited to government policies that limit access to resources; conflict; terrorist activity; lack of technological advances or access to technology; price constraints on the economic development of resources; labor shortages; materials shortages; weather; environmental protection actions; and short- and long-term geopolitical considerations.

21For a full discussion of the High Oil and Gas Resource case, see "Oil price and production trends in AEO2013" and "U.S. reliance on imported liquid fuels in alternative scenarios" in EIA's Annual Energy Outlook 2013, DOE/EIA-0383(2013) (Washington, DC: April 2013), pp. 30-39.

Chapter 3 - Natural gas

22Oil and gas in-place estimates are derived by first estimating the volume of in-place resources for a prospective area within a formation or basin and then de-rating the formation's in-place resource by applying risk factors that account for (1) the probability that the shale play will (or will not) have sufficiently attractive flow rates to become developed and (2) an expectation of how much of the prospective area set forth for each shale basin and formation will eventually be developed. A recovery factor is then applied to the risked in-place resource estimates. The recovery factor takes into consideration the capability of current technology to produce oil and gas from formations with similar geophysical characteristics, incorporating shale mineralogy, reservoir properties, and geologic complexity. The resulting estimate is referred to as the risked technically recoverable resource.

23The ratio is calculated as the crude oil price in dollars per barrel divided by the natural gas price in dollars per million Btu. A ratio of around 6:1 indicates price parity between crude oil and natural gas on a Btu basis. A ratio above 6:1 indicates that the natural gas price is at a discount relative to the oil price on a Btu basis.

24For a discussion of natural gas pricing in Europe, see EIA's International Energy Outlook 2011, DOE/EIA-0484(2011) (Washington, DC, September 2011), "Natural gas prices in Europe," pp. 46-47.

25Sour gas contains significant quantities of hydrogen sulfide, which is considered a contaminant, and gas with high concentrations requires special handling and treatment. Hydrogen sulfide is corrosive, and in sufficient concentrations it can damage pipelines and other infrastructure. It is also heavier than air and highly toxic.

26The Southern Cone region also includes the countries of Chile, Paraguay, and Uruguay, whose production of hydrocarbons is a small portion of the regional total.

Chapter 4 - Coal

27In IEO2013, electric power sector includes only power plants that generate electricity or electricity and heat mainly for sale to the electric grid. Unless otherwise noted, electricity generators refers to power plants in the electric power sector only, and electricity generation refers to electricity generated from those plants only. Coal consumed at plants that serve the electricity and heat needs of local industrial facilities is counted as industrial sector consumption.

28In this chapter, energy consumption expressed in percentage terms is calculated on the basis of energy content, and coal production expressed in percentage terms is calculated on the basis of physical tonnage.

29Throughout this chapter, tons refer to short tons (2,000 pounds) unless otherwise specified.

30Indonesia accounted for 71 percent of total coal production in the other non-OECD Asia region in 2010, up from 52 percent in 2000. Throughout the projection period, Indonesia continues to dominate the region's coal production.

31The refocus on thermal power expansion outlined in February 2013 by South Korea's Ministry of Knowledge Economy in its draft 6th Basic Plan for Long-Term Electricity Supply and Demand is not included in the IEO2013 Reference case.

32According to statistics from the World Steel Association, China is the world's largest producer of both steel and pig iron, accounting for 45 percent of world crude steel production and 59 percent of world pig iron production in 2011.

33Including those projects for which producers have provided or applied for regulatory approval and investors have provided financial backing.

34China's metallurgical coal reserves are concentrated largely in the south and the southeast.

35Europe/Other includes coal importing countries in Europe, Eurasia, the Middle East, and Africa.

36Recoverable reserves are those quantities of coal that geological and engineering information indicates with reasonable certainty can be extracted in the future under existing economic and operating conditions. The reserves-to-production ratio is based on the reserves estimates and data on world coal production for 2010, shown in Table 10.

Chapter 5 - Electricity

37Other renewable energy sources include wind, solar, geothermal, biomass, waste, and tidal/wave/ocean.

38A feed-in tariff is a financial incentive that encourages the adoption of renewable electricity technologies. Under a feed-in tariff, government legislation requires electric utilities to purchase renewable electricity at a higher price than the wholesale price, allowing the renewable generator to achieve a positive return on investment despite higher costs.

39The 10 GEUs accounted for 73 percent of Japan's total generating capacity and 71 percent of its total generation in 2010.

40Heavy forging facilities are plants that are able to manufacture large-scale, strong steel or aluminum parts for machinery and heavy transportation purposes.

Chapter 6 - Buildings sector energy consumption

41 Total delivered energy use in the residential and commercial sectors includes electricity, natural gas, liquid fuels, and coal. While renewable energy is reported in the electric power sector, energy data on the direct use of renewable energy outside the United States is not readily available and, as a result, is not included in the IEO2013 projections. The term delivered is used to indicate that the measurement is made at the point of entry into a home or building—the point of delivery. Delivered electricity, for example, excludes electric generation losses.

42 Traditional fuels include fuelwood, charcoal, animal dung, and agricultural residues in stoves with very low efficiencies.

Chapter 7 - Industrial sector energy consumption

43Delivered energy is measured as the heat content of energy at the site of use. It includes the heat content of electricity (3,412 Btu per kilowatthour) but does not include the conversion losses that occur at electricity sector generation plants. Delivered energy also includes fuels (natural gas, coal, liquids, and renewables) used for combined heat and power facilities (cogeneration) in the industrial sector.

Chapter 8 - Transportation sector energy consumption

44In terms of vehicle efficiencies: 130 grams of carbon dioxide (CO2) per kilometer is equivalent to vehicle efficiencies of 42.0 miles per gallon (mpg) for motor-gasoline-fueled vehicles or 48.0 mpg for diesel-fueled vehicles; 95 grams CO2 per kilometer is equivalent to 57.4 mpg for motor-gasoline-fueled vehicles or 65.3 miles per gallon for diesel-fueled vehicles; 147 grams CO2 per kilometer is equivalent to 37.4 mpg for motor-gasoline-fueled vehicles or 42.8 miles per gallon for diesel-fueled vehicles; and 175 grams per kilometer is equivalent to 31.4 mpg for motor-gasoline-fueled vehicles or 35.6 miles per gallon for diesel-fueled vehicles.

45The Chinese government introduced policies in 2010 to boost the development of what it called "new energy vehicles," which include electric vehicles, hybrid electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, and fuel cell electric vehicles.

46Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.

Chapter 9 - Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions

47In IEO2013, energy-related carbon dioxide emissions are defined as emissions related to the combustion of fossil fuels (liquid fuels, natural gas, and coal). Emissions from the flaring of natural gas are not included.

Apppendix K - Comparisons with International Energy Agency and IEO2011 projections

48International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2012: Executive Summary (Paris, France, November 2012), p. 34.

49Turkey is an Annex I nation that has not ratified the Framework Convention on Climate Change and did not commit to quantifiable emissions targets under the Kyoto Protocol. In 2001, the United States withdrew from the Protocol.