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International Energy Outlook 2016

Release Date: May 11, 2016   |   Next Release Date: September 2017   |  Report Number: DOE/EIA-0484(2016)

Chapter footnotes

Preface

1. OECD includes all members of the organization as of January 1, 2016, in all the time series included in this report. Israel, which became a member in 2010, is included in OECD Europe for statistical reporting purposes.

2. Nonmarketed energy sources include selected energy consumption data for which the energy is not bought or sold, either directly or indirectly, as an input to marketed energy—particularly, traditional fuels such as fuelwood, charcoal, agricultural waste, and animal dung used for cooking and water heating. EIA does not estimate or project total consumption of nonmarketed energy.

Executive Summary

3. For consistency, OECD includes all members of the organization as of January 1, 2016, throughout all the time series included in this report. OECD member countries as of January 1, 2016, were Austria, Australia, Belgium, Canada, Chile, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom, and the United States. For statistical reporting purposes, Israel is included in OECD Europe. See Appendix M for the complete list of regional definitions used in the IEO2016.

4.U.S. Energy Information Administration, Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan (Washington, DC: May 2015), https://www.eia.gov/analysis/requests/powerplants/cleanplan/.

5. Crude and lease condensate includes tight oil, shale oil extra-heavy crude oil, field condensate, and bitumen.

6. Other liquid fuels include natural gas plant liquids (NGPL), biofuels, gas-to-liquids (GTL), coal-to-liquids (CTL), kerogen, and refinery gain.

7. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan (Washington, DC: May 2015), https://www.eia.gov/analysis/requests/powerplants/cleanplan/.

8. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan (Washington, DC: May 2015), https://www.eia.gov/analysis/requests/powerplants/cleanplan/.

Chapter 1 - World energy demand and economic outlook

9. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan (Washington, DC: May 2015), https://www.eia.gov/analysis/requests/powerplants/cleanplan/.

10. For consistency, OECD includes all members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development as of January 1, 2016, throughout every time series presented in this publication.

11. U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Statistics database (as of September 2015), www.eia.gov/ies. World coal consumption grew from 4.3 million short tons in 1982 to 8.3 million short tons in 2012, or an average annual growth rate of 2.2%.

12. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan (Washington, DC: May 2015), https://www.eia.gov/analysis/requests/powerplants/cleanplan/.

13. This outlook does not incorporate the effect on the United States of the recently-released final clean power plant (CPP) rules. EIA’s assessment of the proposed rules suggests that U.S. coal-fired generation could be reduced significantly from the IEO2016 Reference case projection.

14. Delivered energy consumption in the end-use sectors consists of primary energy consumption and retail sales of electricity, excluding electrical system energy losses.

15. Backtesting is used to test predictive models by comparing their results with historical data.

16. The purchasing power parity exchange rate is the exchange rate at which the currency of one country is converted into that of another country to buy the same amount of goods and services.

17. The World Bank, "Data: Services, etc., value added (% of GDP)," (2015) http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NV.SRV.TETC.ZS.

18. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, "Economic Research: Working Age Population: Aged 15-64: All Persons for Japan" (April 29, 2015), https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/LFWA64TTJPM647S.

19. IHS Economics, World Overview: Fourth-quarter 2015 (2015), p. 69, https://www.ihs.com (subscription site).

Chapter 2 - Petroleum and other liquid fuels

20. The terms biofuels, GTL, CTL, and kerogen are used in the text of this chapter because they are common terms; however, in the tables a more uniform nomenclature is employed: liquids from renewable sources, liquids from natural gas, liquids from coal, and liquids from kerogen, respectively.

21. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Effects of Removing Restrictions on U.S. Crude Oil Exports (Washington, DC: September 2015), http://www.eia.gov/analysis/requests/crude-exports/.

22. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook (Washington, DC: December 2015), Figures 35 and 36, www.eia.gov/forecasts/STEO.

23. Unless otherwise noted, all prices are reported in inflation-adjusted 2013 U.S. dollars.

24. Price volatility is a measure of price risk, often expressed as the degree of variation in a price series over time, as measured by the standard deviation of returns (i.e., percentage price changes). The price changes do not have to be measured on a daily basis and annualized. The price changes could be measured weekly, monthly, or even annually and then annualized.

25. EIA/ARI 2013 assessments noted large shale deposits in China and Argentina. See U.S. Energy Information Administration, "World Shale Resource Assessments," http://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/worldshalegas/ (updated September 24, 2015), and Technically Recoverable Shale Gas and Shale Oil Resources: An Assessment of 137 Shale Formations in 41 Countries Outside the United States (Washington, DC: June 13, 2013), http://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/worldshalegas/archive/2013/pdf/fullreport_2013.pdf.

26. International Maritime Organization, “International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships (MARPOL)” (London, UK: 2015), http://www.imo.org/en/About/Conventions/ListOfConventions/Pages/International-Convention-for-the-Prevention-of-Pollution-from-Ships-(MARPOL).aspx.

27. When the revised Marpol Annex VI entered into force in July 2010, it included a change to the name and definition of an emission control area from SECA to ECA—an area where special mandatory measures are required to control nitrogen oxides (NOX), sulfur oxides (SOX), particulate matter (PM), or all three types of emissions from ships. See U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, “MARPOL Annex VI” (Washington, DC: September 1, 2015), https://www.epa.gov/enforcement/marpol-annex-vi.

28. Purchasing power parity (PPP) compares different currencies through a market basket of goods approach. Two currencies are in PPP when a market basket of goods (taking exchange rates into account) is priced the same in both countries. See Investopedia LLC, http://www.investopedia.com/video/play/purchasing-power-parity-ppp/ (2016) and The Economist Newspaper Ltd., http://www.economist.com/content/big-mac-index.

29. U.S. Energy Information Administration, "Petroleum & other liquids: data: exports by destination: petroleum coke" (October 30, 2015), http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/PET_MOVE_EXPC_A_EPPC_EEX_MBBL_A.htm.

30. Wang Tao, "Managing China's Petcoke Problem" (Beijing, China: Carnegie-Tsinghu a Center for Global Policy, May 31, 2015), http://carnegietsinghua.org/2015/06/03/managing-china-s-petcoke-problem/i9fa.

31. U.S. Department of the Treasury, "Treasury Sanctions Those Involved in Ballistic Missile Procurement for Iran" (January 17, 2016), https://www.treasury.gov/press-center/press-releases/Pages/jl0322.aspx.

32. U.S. Energy Information Administration, "Iran's petroleum production seen rising as many sanctions are lifted," This Week in Petroleum (January 21, 2016), https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/weekly/archive/2016/160121/includes/analysis_print.cfm.

33. U.S. Energy Information Administration, "Under sanctions, Iran's crude oil exports have nearly halved in three years," Today in Energy (June 24, 2015), http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=21792.

34. U.S. Energy Information Administration, "Iran," Country Analysis Brief (June 19, 2015), http://www.eia.gov/beta/international/analysis.cfm?iso=IRN.

35. U.S. Energy Information Administration, "Nuclear accord creates potential for additional crude oil production from Iran," Today in Energy (August 13, 2015), http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=22492.

36. U.S. Energy Information Administration, "Global Petroleum and Other Liquids," Short-Term Energy Outlook (January 12, 2016), https://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/report/global_oil.cfm.

37. Although companies can book reserves, the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) retains exclusive ownership of fields.

38. A. Lidgett, "Iran's New Oil And Gas Contract Framework Revealed," International Business Times (November 28, 2015), http://www.ibtimes.com/irans-new-oil-gas-contract-framework-revealed-2202878.

39. "Mexico's first bid round proves a disappointment," Petroleum Intelligence Weekly (July 20, 2015), http://www.energyintel.com/pages/login.aspx?fid=art&DocId=893018 (subscription site).

40. U.S. Energy Information Administration, "Sustained low oil prices could reduce exploration and production investment," This Week in Petroleum (September 23, 2015), http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/weekly/archive/2015/150923/includes/analysis_print.cfm.

41. Pemex, "Newsletter No. 3: Round Zero Resolution & Round One Updates" (September 2014), http://www.ri.pemex.com/files/content/No.%203%20Round%200%20&%20Round%201.pdf.

42. F. Tanner et al., "Mexico: Learning from the first phase of Round 1,” Oil and Gas Risk Service (July 30, 2015), https://www.pfcenergy.com/Members/PRM/Special-Reports-and-Quarterly-Outlooks/2015/Mexico-Learning-from-the-first-phase-of-Round-1 (subscription site).

43. P.M. Lara, "Mexican E&P companies emerge," Strategic Horizons (IHS Energy: October 26, 2015), https://www.pfcenergy.com/Members/Horizons/Exploration-and-Production/2015/Mexican-EP-companies-emerge (subscription site).

44. Energy Intelligence, "Mexico's flexibility bodes well for first bid round," Petroleum Intelligence Weekly (June 29, 2015), http://www.energyintel.com/pages/articlesummary/890602/mexico-s-flexibility-bodes-well-for-first-bid-round (subscription site).

45. Note: EIA does not collect statistics on international HEFA fuels.

46. ASTM International, "Standard Specification for Aviation Turbine Fuel Containing Synthesized Hydrocarbons," ASTM D7566-15c (West Conshohocken, PA: 2015), http://www.astm.org/Standards/D7566.htm.

47. Eni S.p.A., "Green Refinery" (October 11, 2014), http://www.eni.com/en_IT/innovation-technology/technological-focus/green-refinery/green-refinery.shtml.

48. R. Kotrba, "A Transformative Project: Total's La Mède Conversion," Biodiesel Magazine(November 20, 2015), http://www.biodieselmagazine.com/articles/606885/a-transformative-project-totals-la-mede-conversion.

49. Shell Global, "Military Jet Fuel Grades and Specifications (NATO)," http://www.shell.com/global/products-services/solutions-for-businesses/aviation/shell-aviation-fuels/fuels/types/military-jet-fuel-grades.html.

50. International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2012 (Paris, France: November 12, 2012), http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/weo2012/.

51. C. Xu, T. Dunnahoe, M.T. Slocum, and L. Bell, "Reserves grow modestly as crude oil production climbs" Oil & Gas Journal (December 7, 2015), http://www.ogj.com/articles/print/volume-113/issue-12/special-report-worldwide-report/reserves-grow-modestly-as-crude-oil-production-climbs.html (subscription site).

52. Canada, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Russia, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, and Venezuela.

53. "Global oil production up in 2012 as reserve estimates rise again," Oil & Gas Journal (December 3, 2012), http://www.ogj.com (subscription site).

Chapter 3 - Natural gas

54. Defined here as trade volumes delivered under contracts with duration of 4 years or less.

55. Includes natural gas trade by pipeline and LNG.

56. Nuclear Energy Institute, "Japan Nuclear Update" (Washington, DC: January 26, 2016), http://www.nei.org/News-Media/News/Japan-Nuclear-Update.

57. International Gas Union, World LNG Report - 2015 Edition (Forenbu, Norway: 2015), pp. 79-81, http://www.igu.org/sites/default/files/node-page-field_file/IGU-World%20LNG%20Report-2015%20Edition.pdf.

58. E. Ng, "High prices threaten Beijing's target of natural gas accounting for 10pc of energy use," South China Morning News: China Business (June 21, 2015), http://www.scmp.com/business/china-business/article/1824591/high-prices-threaten-beijings-target-natural-gas-accounting.

59. U.S. Energy Information Administration, "Australia: International Energy Data and Analysis" (Washington, DC: August 28, 2014), https://www.eia.gov/beta/international/analysis.cfm?iso=AUS.

60. BP, "BP Azerbaijan: Operations and Projects: Shah Deniz Stage 2," BP Azerbaijan (undated), http://www.bp.com/en_az/caspian/operationsprojects/Shahdeniz/SDstage2.html.

61. "Chevron CEO: Angola LNG to ship in 2nd quarter," LNG World News (February 1, 2016), http://www.lngworldnews.com/chevron-ceo-angola-lng-to-ship-lng-cargo-in-2nd-quarter/.

62. Liu Chenglin, Che Changbo, Fan Mingzhu, Zhu Jie, and Yang Hulin, "China CBM Geology and Resources Evaluation," China Coalbed Methane (2009), http://www.nios.com.cn/common/files/File/2009.03-English.pdf.

63. U.S. Energy Information Administration, "World Shale Resource Assessments" (Washington, DC: September 24, 2015), http://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/worldshalegas/.

64. International Energy Agency, "3rd IEA Unconventional Gas Forum" (Chengdu, China: April 10, 2015), https://www.iea.org/workshops/3rd-iea-unconventional-gas-forum.html.

65. Reported by Platts (quoting Mr. Ma Yongsheng, Sinopec's Chief Geologist in China) in October 2013, for a horizontal well at Fuling field in the Sichuan Basin.

66. U.S. Energy Information Administration, "Foreign investors play large role in U.S. shale industry" (Washington, DC: April 8, 2013), http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=10711.

67. IHS Energy, "Market Briefing, China Oil and Gas Service, China Upstream Market Briefing Second Quarter 2015" (July 2015), https://www.ihs.com/products/cera-china-energy-research.html (subscription site).

68. U.S. Energy Information Administration and Advanced Resources International, Inc., World Shale Gas and Shale Oil Resource Assessment (June 26, 2015), http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=21832; and U.S. Energy Information Administration/Advanced Resources International, Inc., EIA/ARI World Shale Gas and Shale Oil Resource Assessment: Technically Recoverable Shale Gas and Shale Oil Resources: An Assessment of 137 Shale Formations in 41 Countries Outside the United States (Fairfax, VA: June 2013), http://www.adv-res.com/pdf/A_EIA_ARI_2013%20World%20Shale%20Gas%20and%20Shale%20Oil%20Resource%20Assessment.Pdf.

69. BP, BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2015 (London, UK: June 2015), http://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/pdf/energy-economics/statistical-review-2015/bp-statistical-review-of-world-energy-2015-full-report.pdf.

70. G. Duffy, "Huge’ gas field found off Brazil," BBC News (Sao Paulo, Brazil: January 22, 2008), http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7201744.stm.

71. Other includes gas produced from structural and stratigraphic traps (e.g., reservoirs), historically called conventional.

72. BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 64th edition (June 2015), https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/pdf/energy-economics/statistical-review-2015/bp-statistical-review-of-world-energy-2015-full-report.pdf.

73. Based on preliminary estimates from IHS Strategic Report, "Global Gas in 2016, The tipping of the scales" (February 2016), www.ihs.com (subscription site).

74. Generally, spot trade implies a single transaction between a buyer and a seller.

75. Short-term contracts have a duration of 4 years or less.

76. The Asia Pacific region includes Australia, China, India, Japan, Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand.

77. BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 64th edition (June 2015), https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/pdf/energy-economics/statistical-review-2015/bp-statistical-review-of-world-energy-2015-full-report.pdf.

78. U.S. Energy Information Administration, "Floating LNG regasification is used to meet rising natural gas demand in smaller markets" (Washington, DC: April 27, 2015), http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=20972.

79. Australian Petroleum Production & Exploration Association, "Australian LNG projects" (not dated), http://www.appea.com.au/oil-gas-explained/operation/australian-lng-projects/.

80. International Gas Union, 2016 World LNG Report (Fornebu, Norway: 2016), p. 5, http://www.igu.org/publications/2016-world-lng-report.

81. C. Xu and L. Bell, "Global reserves, oil production show increases for 2014," Oil & Gas Journal (December 1, 2014).

82. FACTS Global Energy, "Iran Oil & Gas Monthly Report" (Datafile) (London, UK: August 2015), https://www.fgenergy.com/ (subscription site).

83. Reuters, "Fitch: Major Iranian Gas Exports Will Take at Least Five Years" (July 10, 2015), http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/10/idUSFit92836320150710#xjyCPxxARoAqX4sD.97.

84. "Domestic upgrades key to Iran exports," World Gas Intelligence (August 12, 2015), http://www.energyintel.com/pages/about_wgi.aspx (subscription site).

85. Phase 11 of South Pars development was initially allocated to the Pars LNG project, with a production target of 1.9 Bcf/d of gas and 80,000 b/d condensate; however, because of sanctions, the project failed to progress.

86. R. Yeganehshakib, "Will South Pars help bring Iran’s economy back to life?" Almonitor (December 30, 2015), http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2015/12/iran-south-pars-phases-15-16-inauguration-impact.html#.

87. "Iran allocates $1.4 B to develop Kish gas field," Natural Gas Europe: Greater Caspian Region Weekly Overview (July 12, 2015), http://www.naturalgaseurope.com/greater-caspian-region-weekly-overview-july-12th-24609.

88. "Iran's Gas Exports Outlook Post-Sanctions," FACTS Global Energy, Issue 238, published July 22, 2015 (subscription site), http://www.fgenergy.com.

89. D.R. Jalilvand, Iran's gas exports: can past failure become future success? (Oxford, UK: June 2013), http://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/NG-78.pdf.

90. Estimate derived from IHS Energy, "Liquefaction Sales Contract Database" (March 24, 2015), www.ihs.com (subscription site).

91. U.S. Energy Information Administration, "China: International Energy Data and Analysis" (Washington, DC: May 14, 2015), https://www.eia.gov/beta/international/analysis.cfm?iso=CHN.

92. Du Juan, "Myanmar-China gas pipeline opens," China Daily USA (July 30, 2013), http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/epaper/2013-07/30/content_16851851.htm.

93. E. Mazneva and S. Kravchenko, "Russia, China Sign $400B Gas Deal After Decade of Talks" BloombergBusiness News (May 21, 2014), http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-05-21/russia-signs-china-gas-deal-after-decade-of-talks.

94. J. Paton and A. Guo, "Russia, China Add to $400 Billion Gas Deal With Accord," BloombergBusiness News (November 9, 2014), http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-11-10/russia-china-add-to-400-billion-gas-deal-with-accord.

95. U.S. Energy Information Administration, "India: International Energy Data and Analysis" (Washington, DC: June 26, 2014), https://www.eia.gov/beta/international/analysis.cfm?iso=IND.

96. U.S. Energy Information Administration, "Argentina: International Energy Data and Analysis" (Washington, DC: April 2014), http://www.eia.gov/beta/international/analysis.cfm?iso=ARG.

97. "Worldwide Look at Reserves and Production," Oil & Gas Journal, Vol. 113, No. 12 (December 7, 2015), pp. 22-23, http://www.ogj.com/articles/print/volume-113/issue-12.html (subscription site).

98. BP, "Natural gas: Total proved reserves," BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2015 (London, United Kingdom: June 2015), http://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/pdf/energy-economics/statistical-review-2015/bp-statistical-review-of-world-energy-2015-full-report.pdf.

99. A 13-year R/P ratio does not imply that the United States will run out of gas in 13 years. The U.S. gas resource base is sufficiently large to allow for continuing expansion of both reserves and production (under most economic, technical, and environmental scenarios). It would not be unusual, for example, for an R/P ratio to remain constant or grow over time, despite production growth. Under R/P, the United States has had 10 years or so of natural gas remaining for the past 100 years. Clearly, the R/P ratio can be a misleading statistic.

Chapter 4 - Coal

100. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan (Washington, DC: May 2015), https://www.eia.gov/analysis/requests/powerplants/cleanplan/.

101. In IEO2016, the electric power sector includes only power plants that generate electricity or electricity and heat mainly for selling electricity to the electric grid. Unless otherwise noted, “electricity generators” refers to power plants in the electric power sector only, and “electricity generation” refers to electricity generated from those plants only. Coal consumed at plants that serve the electricity and heat needs of local industrial facilities is counted as industrial sector consumption.

102. In this chapter, energy consumption expressed in percentage terms is calculated on the basis of energy content, and coal production expressed in percentage terms is calculated on the basis of physical tonnage.

103. Throughout IEO2016, tons (of coal) refers to short tons (2,000 pounds) unless otherwise specified.

104. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, "Clean Power Plan for Existing Power Plants" (Washington, DC: November 20, 2015).

105. Ontario Ministry of Energy, "Creating Cleaner Air in Ontario: Province Has Eliminated Coal-Fired Generation" (April 15, 2014), http://news.ontario.ca/mei/en/2014/04/creating-cleaner-air-in-ontario-1.html.

106. Government of Canada, "Reduction of Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Coal-fired Generation of Electricity Regulations" (August 30, 2012), http://www.gazette.gc.ca/rp-pr/p2/2012/2012-09-12/html/sor-dors167-eng.html.

107. "Best Available Technologies" is defined as the latest stage of development ("state of the art") of processes, facilities, or methods of operation that indicate the practical suitability of a particular measure for limiting discharges.

108. European Commission, "Prevention and control of industrial emissions," http://ec.europa.eu/environment/industry/stationary/.

109. IHS, "Global Steam Coal service: coal-fired power stations: operational and planned," https://connect.ihs.com/ (subscription site).

110. Ministry of Knowledge Economy, "The 6th basic plan of long-term electricity supply and demand (2013-2027)" (February 2013), www.kpx.or.kr/eng/downloadBbsFile.do?atchmnflNo=23330.

111. U.S. Energy Information Administration, "Recent statistical revisions suggest higher historical coal consumption in China," Today In Energy (Washington, DC: September 16, 2015), http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=22952&src=email.

112. National Development and Reform Commission, "China's Policies and Actions on Climate Change" (November 2014), http://en.ccchina.gov.cn/archiver/ccchinaen/UpFile/Files/Default/20141126133727751798.pdf.

113. The State Council, People's Republic of China, "'Made in China 2025' plan issued" (May 19, 2015,), http://english.gov.cn/policies/latest_releases/2015/05/19/content_281475110703534.htm.

114. China Council for International Cooperation on Environment and Development (CCICED), Progress in Environment and Development Policies in China (2013-2014) and CCICED Policy Recommendations Impact (December 2014), http://www.cciced.net/encciced/policyresearch/impact/201504/P020150413373426638425.pdf.

115. (Chinese) Ministry of Environmental Protection (September 2014), http://www.mep.gov.cn/gkml/hbb/gwy/201409/W020140925407622627853.pdf.

116. China Energy Conservation and Environmental Protection Group, "Three Ministries and Commissions Jointly Issue Action Plan for the Transformation and Upgrading of Coal Power Energy Conservation and Emission Reduction" (October 9, 2014), http://www.cecep.cn/g3621/s12528/t37687.aspx.

117. Xinhua Finance Agency, "China targets industrial coal use for environmental protection" (March 2, 2015), http://en.xinfinance.com/html/Industries/Energy/2015/59603.shtml.

118. Xinhuanet, "China unveils energy strategy, targets for 2020" (November 19, 2014), http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/china/2014-11/19/c_133801014.htm

119. L. Lan, "China, US promise to reduce emissions," China Daily (November 13, 2014), http://m.chinadaily.com.cn/en/2014-11/13/content_18904652.htm.

120. "China's harsher environmental protection law to take effect," China Daily (January 1, 2015), http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2015-01/01/content_19212213.htm.

121. (Chinese) Coal Industry Policy, National Energy Administration, February 2013, http://www.nea.gov.cn/2013-02/04/c_132149959.htm.

122. (Chinese) Coal Logistics Development Plan, National Development and Reform Commission (December 2013), http://www.sdpc.gov.cn/zcfb/zcfbghwb/201401/W020140221373227123903.pdf.

123. U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Statistics, http://www.eia.gov/beta/international/.

124. BP, Statistical Review 2015, http://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy/downloads.html.

125. Eskom, "Coal in South Africa," http://www.eskom.co.za/AboutElectricity/FactsFigures/Documents/CO_0007CoalSARev13.pdf.

126. U.S. Energy Information Administration, "South Africa" (April, 2015), http://www.eia.gov/beta/international/analysis.cfm?iso=ZAF.

127. U.S. Energy Information Administration, “South Africa” (April, 2015), http://www.eia.gov/beta/international/analysis.cfm?iso=ZAF.

128. India production, 2013-14: Government of India, Ministry of Coal, Provisional Coal Statistics 2013-14 (Kolkata, July 2014), Table 2.9, "Trends of Company Wise Production of Coal & Lignite During Last Three Years," http://www.coal.nic.in/sites/upload_files/coal/files/coalupload/provisional1314_0.pdf.

129. S. Jha, "Coal India goes for makeover," The Financial Express (June 3, 2015), http://www.financialexpress.com/article/industry/companies/coal-india-goes-for-makeover/79443/; and "Coal India gearing up for 1 billion tonne coal production," Newsroom24x7 (February 20, 2015), http://newsroom24x7.com/2015/02/20/coal-india-gearing-up-for-1-billion-tonne-coal-production/.

130. The Hindu Business Line, "Coal India to invest $20 billion in five years: Goyal" (May 15, 2015), http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/coal-india-to-invest-20-billion-in-five-years-goyal/article7209867.ece?utm_source=RSS_Feed&utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=RSS_Syndication.

131. K.N. Das and J. Dash, "Coal India units see double-digit output growth in 2014/15," Reuters Business News (February 18, 2014), http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/02/18/coalindia-output-westerncoalfields-idINDEEA1H07F20140218.

132. Government of India, Provisional Coal Statistics 2013-14, p. 32, Table 2.10, "Block wise production of raw coal during 2013-14," and p. 12, “Captive Coal Blocks,” http://www.coal.nic.in/sites/upload_files/coal/files/coalupload/provisional1314_0.pdf.

133. Infrastructure Development Finance Company, Ltd., "Captive coal mining by private power developers – Issues and road ahead" (2008), http://www.idfc.com/pdf/publications/captive_coal_mining_final.pdf.

134. S.P. Singh, "No-go ghost still haunts Coal India" (May 22, 2012), Business Standard, http://www.business-standard.com/article/companies/no-go-ghost-still-haunts-coal-india-112052200055_1.html.

135. The Economic Times, "Coal India to take 11.5MT hit on latest green directive; stock up" (June 3, 2011), http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2011-06-03/news/29617105_1_environment-ministry-coal-projects-forest-clearances.

136. The Economic Times, "Government panel says 'Go, No-Go' concept of forest area classification legally not tenable and should be abandoned" (July 29, 2011), http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2011-07-29/news/29829405_1_environment-ministry-coal-blocks-forest-clearance.

137. S. Saraf, "India coal: transport bottlenecks as demand is expected to rise" (Platts: May 27, 2015), http://www.platts.com/news-feature/2015/coal/india-coal-transport/index?wt.mc_id=coap201505we_indiarail&wt.tsrc=eloqua.

138. New Delhi Television, "Government to expedite construction of three rail lines to move coal" (July 8, 2014), http://profit.ndtv.com/budget/government-to-expedite-construction-of-three-rail-lines-to-move-coal-585385; and A. Swarup, "Odisha rail project for coal likely to complete by 2017: Coal India Ltd," The Times of India: The Economic Times (April 13, 2015), http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2015-04-13/news/61103072_1_bhupdeopur-raigarh-mand-area-coal-india-ltd-tori-shivpur-kathautia-area.

139. Zeenews, "Govt to give priority to 3 critical rail links to carry coal" (May 26, 2014), http://zeenews.india.com/business/news/economy/govt-to-give-priority-to-3-critical-rail-links-to-carry-coal_100279.html.

140. New Delhi Television, "Government to expedite construction of three rail lines to move coal" (July 8, 2014), http://profit.ndtv.com/budget/government-to-expedite-construction-of-three-rail-lines-to-move-coal-585385.

141. CNBCTV18 moneycontrol, "Targeting 10% total sales via e-auction route: Coal India" (April 08, 2015), http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/targeting-10total-sales-via-e-auction-routecoal-india_1351734.html?utm_source=ref_article.

142. S. Jha, "Coal India goes for makeover" (The Financial Express: June 3, 2015) http://www.financialexpress.com/article/industry/companies/coal-india-goes-for-makeover/79443/.

143. World Bank, "India: Data," http://data.worldbank.org/country/india (2015).

144. Derived by assuming 200 gigawatts of coal-fired power plant capacity (utility and non-utility plants) and 0.6 MMmt of coal per additional kilowatthour of generation.

145. Europe/Other includes coal-importing countries in Europe, Eurasia, the Middle East, and Africa.

146. P. Baruya, Impacts of seaborne trade on coal importing countries – global summary, IEA Clean Coal Center, CCC/197 (London, United Kingdom, May 2012), pp. 27-29, http://www.iea-coal.org.uk (subscription site); EURACOAL members and secretariat, EURACOAL Market Report 1/2015, Euracoal (Brussels, Belgium, April 2015), pp. 5-7; and “Turkey Coal Profile,” IHS Energy Global Steam Coal Service Country Profiles (September 2015), http://connect.ihs.com/DisplayDocument/Show?source=gi&docid=2437095&connectPath=EmailAlerts&utm_campaign=Immediate%202437095%
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147. B. Lee, "UK fuel switch gains traction but road not smooth," ICIS (November 16, 2015), http://www.icis.com/resources/news/2015/11/16/9944374/analysis-uk-fuel-switch-gains-traction-but-road-not-smooth; and J. Holman, "UK July thermal coal imports fall 71% on-year to 821,375 mt," Platts Coal Trader International, Vol. 15, No. 175 (October 14, 2015), pp. 1 & 11, http://www.platts.com (subscription site).

148. World Steel Association, Steel Statistical Yearbook 2015 (Brussels, Belgium: 2015), pp. 91-92, https://www.worldsteel.org/statistics/statistics-archive/yearbook-archive.html.

149. Australian Government, Department of Industry and Science, Office of the Chief Economist, Coal in India (June 2015), pp. 79-83, http://www.industry.gov.au/Office-of-the-Chief-Economist/Publications/Pages/Coal-in-India.aspx.

150. Financial pressures related to the recent decline in both international coal trade and prices have led some companies to back away from their investments in Mozambique’s coal industry (e.g., Rio Tinto sold its three coal mining projects in the country to the Indian company International Coal Ventures Private Limited (ICVL) in 2014 for a price much lower than it paid for them in 2011). However, other companies have remained and are continuing to move forward with their investment projects. For example, Vale is continuing its work to complete a 567-mile rail line to the port of Nacala in Mozambique. That project, scheduled for completion in 2016, will have an initial annual coal transport capacity of 20 MMst. Upgrades to the 357-mile Sena Railway, also underway, will increase its annual transport capacity from 7 MMst to approximately 22 MMst by June 2016.

151. K. Campbell, "Mozambique's coal sector still embattled, but bottlenecks should soon go," Creamer Media's Mining Weekly (October 16, 2015), http://www.miningweekly.com/article/mozambiques-coal-sector-still-embattled-but-bottlenecks-should-soon-go-2015-10-16; P. Fauvet, "Tata Steel to Sell Benga Coal Assets," allAfrica (February 20, 2015), http://allafrica.com/stories/201505131549.html; J. Rowland, "Vale coal production down y/y in 3Q15," World Coal (October 21, 2015), http://www.worldcoal.com/mining/21102015/Vale-coal-production-down-year-on-year-in-3Q15-3041; and L. Caruana, "Isaac Plains, Integra reduce Vale's coal output," International Coal News (October 21, 2015), http://www.internationalcoalnews.com/storyview.asp?storyID=826957202&section=News&sectionsource=s46&aspdsc=yes.

152. Europe/Other includes the countries of Europe, Eurasia, the Middle East, and Africa.

153. U.S. Energy Information Administration, "International energy data and analysis," http://www.eia.gov/beta/international/.

154. Xiaomin Liu and Shan Xue, "China Coal Market Briefing: Third quarter 2015" (IHS Energy, August 2015), p. 2, http://connect.ihs.com/DisplayDocument/Show?source=gi&docid=2831005&connectPath=EmailAlerts&utm_campaign=
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156. Argus Consulting Services, Argus Seaborne Thermal Coal Report, Issue 15-11 (November 6, 2015), p. 5, http://www.argusmedia.com (subscription site); and personal communication (e-mail) from Mr. Hayden Atkins, Argus Consulting Services, New York, NY (November 23, 2015).

157. R. Somwanshi, "Government eyes zero Indian coal imports by 2020, experts say not possible," SNL Daily Coal Report, Vol. 9, No. 43 (March 6, 2015), pp. 10-11, http://www.snl.com (subscription site).

158. U.S. Energy Information Administration, "India's coal industry in flux as government sets ambitious coal production targets," Today in Energy (Washington, DC: August 25, 2015), http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=22652.

159. R. Somwanshi, “Coal ‘importing is inevitable’ for Vietnam, expert says,” SNL Energy (November 19, 2014), http://www.snl.com (subscription site); E. Adourian, “Global Steam Coal Service: Vietnam Coal Profile” (IHS Energy, July 2015), http://connect.ihs.com (subscription site); and C. Shearer et al., Boom and Bust 2016: Tracking the Global Coal Plant Pipeline (March 2016), p. 38, http://sierraclub.org/sites/www.sierraclub.org/files/uploads-wysiwig/final%20boom%20and%20bust%202017%20(3-27-16).pdf.

160. R. Somwanshi, “Global coal exports slip in April, but continued growth in seaborne markets seen,” SNL Energy Exclusive (June 30, 2015), http://www.snl.com (subscription site).

161. Mitsui & Co., "News release: Mitsui to participate in Coal and Rail & Port Infrastructure Business in Mozambique" (December 9, 2014), https://www.mitsui.com/jp/en/release/2014/1203631_5699.html; R. Somwanshi, "Major banks end advisory roles, cast doubt over big coal project in Australia," SNL Energy Extra (August 11, 2015), http://www.snl.com (subscription site); and M. Christian, "West Coast coal terminal developers keep eyes on prize in face of opposition," SNL Energy Exclusive (June 12, 2015), http://www.snl.com (subscription site).

162. Recoverable reserves are those quantities of coal that geological and engineering information indicates with reasonable certainty can be extracted in the future under existing economic and operating conditions. The reserves-to-production ratio is based on reserves estimates and data on world coal production for 2012 (Table C3).

163. U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Annual 1991, DOE/EIA-0219(91) (Washington, DC: December 1992), Table 33, https://books.google.com/books?id=2JEtMwEACAAJ&dq=International+Energy+Annual+1991&hl=en&sa=X&ved=
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169. Excluding the impact of the Clean Power Plan in the United States, which would reduce overall growth by roughly 560 billion kWh, or about 5%, by 2030 according to the EIA report, Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan (Washington, DC: May 2015), https://www.eia.gov/analysis/requests/powerplants/cleanplan/.

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171. International Energy Agency, Photovoltaic Power Systems Programme, "National Survey Reports," http://www.iea-pvps.org.

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182 The IEO2015 projections include only marketed renewables as renewable energy sources. Nonmarketed traditional biomass from plant and animal resources is not included, because comprehensive data on its use are not available.

183. A. Goetzl, Developments in the Global Trade of Wood Pellets, U.S. International Trade Commission, Office of Industries Working Paper No. ID-039 (Washington, DC: January 2015), http://www.usitc.gov/publications/332/wood_pellets_id-039_final.pdf.

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185. Cofiring is the simultaneous combustion of two different fuels—usually coal and biomass. Dedicated biomass plants run completely on biomass.

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193. Capacity factors for the five-year period are averages, weighted for generators' annual capacities. For regions with capacity factors missing for some years, only the available capacity factors are used to calculate the five-year weighted average.

194. For example, a typical solar PV plant might have a DC rating of 10 megawatts (MW) and an AC rating of 8 MW. If the plant produced 14,016 MWh of AC generation per year, its AC-rated capacity factor (based on AC generation) would be 20%, but its apparent DC-rated capacity factor, based on the DC capacity rating and the AC generation, would be only 16%.

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197. Under ideal conditions, an ultra-supercritical turbine cycle system can convert steam into rotational energy at 54% or higher efficiency, supercritical turbine cycles can achieve 50% efficiency, and subcritical turbine cycles can achieve 46% efficiency.

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208. India's fiscal year runs from April 1 to March 31. FY 2001 ran from April 1, 2001, to March 31, 2002.

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223. AT&C losses represent the difference between energy available for sale (MWh), adjusted for transmission losses and trading in energy, and energy realized (MWh). Energy realized is the energy billed, adjusted for trading in energy (MWh), factored by the collection efficiency. Collection efficiency is an index of efficiency in realization of billings for current and previous years, focusing on the year-to-year movement of receivables.

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248. IHS Energy (subscription site), "Vietnam signs LNG sales and purchase agreement with Gazprom" (March 7, 2014).

249. A. Starz and B. Lecossois, "IAEA Reviews Viet Nam's Nuclear Power Infrastructure Development" (International Atomic Energy Agency: November 18, 2014), https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/news/iaea-reviews-viet-nams-nuclear-power-infrastructure-development.

250. "Bac Lieu Province Wind Power Plant – phase III," 4COffshore webpage (2015), http://www.4coffshore.com/windfarms/bac-lieu-province-wind-power-plant----phase-iii-vietnam-vn03.html.

251. United States Trade and Development Agency, "USTDA Strengthens Support of Wind Power Development in Vietnam" (March 26, 2015), http://www.ustda.gov/news/pressreleases/2015/SouthAsia/Vietnam/PressReleaseUSTDAStrengthensSupportofWindPowerDevelopmentinVietnam_032615.asp

252. World Bank, "Projects and Operations: Transmission Efficiency Project (TEP)" (2015), http://www.worldbank.org/projects/P131558?lang=en. The TEP has committed $500 million (U.S. dollars) toward increasing transmission and distribution capacity and reliability in Vietnam.

Chapter 6 - Buildings sector energy consumption

253. Total delivered energy used in the residential and commercial sectors includes electricity, natural gas, liquid fuels, coal, and marketed renewable energy (e.g., solar thermal energy).

254. R. Vasudevan, K. Cherail, R. Bhatia, and N. Jayaram, Energy Efficiency in India: History and Overview (Alliance for an Energy Efficient Economy, New Delhi, India, December 2011), pp. 16-17, http://aeee.in/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/AEEE-EE-Book-Online-Version-.pdf.

255 United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, "World Urbanization Prospects: The 2014 Revision, CD-ROM Edition" (November 2014), http://esa.un.org/unpd/wup/CD-ROM/.

256. "The largest migration in history," The Economist, Free Exchange Blogs (February 24, 2012), www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2012/02/china (subscription site).

257. E. Safirova, S. Houde, and W. Harrington, Spatial Development and Energy Consumption (Washington, DC: Resources for the Future, December 2007), http://www.rff.org/files/sharepoint/WorkImages/Download/RFF-DP-07-51.pdf.

258. Wang Qing Song, "Research on air environmental impact of urbanization development strategy in Shandong Province" (Ph.D. Dissertation, Shandong University: 2010), http://www.topresearch.org/showinfo-53-213750-0.html.

259. S. Bin and L. Jun, "Building Energy Efficiency Policies in China: Status Report," p. 74 (American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy, Research Report E129, July 2012), http://aceee.org/research-report/e129.

260. S. Yu, M. Evans, and Q. Shi, Analysis of the Chinese Market for Building Energy Efficiency, PNNL-22761 (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, March 2014), http://www.pnnl.gov/main/publications/external/technical_reports/PNNL-22761.pdf.

261. Berkeley Lab, China climate zone map, in "Cool Roofs in China Can Save Energy and Reduce Emissions" (Berkeley, CA, August 2014), http://newscenter.lbl.gov/2014/08/27/cool-roofs-in-china-can-save-energy-and-reduce-emissions/.

262. M. Evans, B. Shui, M.A. Halverson, and A. Delgado, Enforcing Building Energy Codes in China: Progress and Comparative Lessons, PNNL-19247 (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, August 2010), http://www.pnl.gov/main/publications/external/technical_reports/PNNL-19247.pdf.

263. Institute for Building Efficiency, "Green Building Rating Systems: China" (Fact Sheet, September 2013), http://www.institutebe.com/InstituteBE/media/Library/Resources/Green%20Buildings/Fact-Sheet_Green-Building-Ratings_China.pdf.

264. N. Khanna, J. Romankiewicz, W. Feng, N. Zhou, and Q. Ye, Comparative Policy Study for Green Buildings in U.S. and China, LBNL-6609E (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, April 2014), https://china.lbl.gov/sites/all/files/green_buildings_policy_comparison.pdf.

265. Institute for Building Efficiency, "Efficient Buildings in China: Tough Policies Target Major Gains" (September 2010), http://www.institutebe.com/energy-policy/Efficient-Buildings-in-China.aspx.

266. N. Zhou, N.Z. Khanna, D. Fridley, and J. Romankiewicz, Development and implementation of energy efficiency standards and labeling programs in China: Progress and challenges, LBNL-6141E (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, January 2013), https://china.lbl.gov/sites/all/files/china_sl_info.pdf.

267. N. Zhou, Status of China's Energy Efficiency Standards and Labels for Appliances and International Collaboration, LBNL-251E (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, March 2008), https://china.lbl.gov/sites/all/files/china_sl_info.pdf.

268. CLASP Publication Library, "Survey Evaluates China's $4.26 billion Subsidy Program for Energy Efficient Appliances" (November 2013), http://clasp.ngo/Resources/Resources/PublicationLibrary/2013/Survey_Evaluates_Chinas_4-26_billion_Subsidy_Program_for_Energy_Efficient_Appliances.

269. Institute for Building Efficiency, "Efficient Buildings in China: Tough Policies Target Major Gains" (September 2010), http://www.institutebe.com/energy-policy/Efficient-Buildings-in-China.aspx.

270. S. Yu, M. Evans, and Q. Shi, Analysis of the Chinese Market for Building Energy Efficiency, PNNL-22761 (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, March 2014), http://www.pnnl.gov/main/publications/external/technical_reports/PNNL-22761.pdf.

271. S-J Ahn and D. Graczyk, Understanding Energy Challenges in India: Policies, Players, and Issues (International Energy Agency, Paris, France, 2012), https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/India_study_FINAL_WEB.pdf.

272. R. Rawal and Y. Shukla, Residential Buildings in India: Energy Use Projections and Savings Potentials (Global Buildings Performance Network, Paris, France, September 2014), p. 16, http://www.gbpn.org/sites/default/files/08.%20INDIA%20Baseline_TR_low.pdf.

273. S. de la Rue du Can, et al., Residential and Transportation Energy Use in India: Past Trend and Future Outlook (Berkeley, CA: Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, January 2009), http://eetd.lbl.gov/sites/all/files/lbnl-1753e.pdf.

274. Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre, APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook 2006: Economy Review (Japan: Institute of Energy Economics, 2006), pp. 79-84, http://aperc.ieej.or.jp/file/2010/9/24/EDSO2006_Whole_Report.pdf.

275. T. Lychuk, M. Evans, M. Halverson, and V. Roshchanka, Analysis of the Russian Market for Building Energy Efficiency, PNNL-22110 (Richland, WA: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, December 2012) p. 2, http://www.pnnl.gov/main/publications/external/technical_reports/PNNL-22110.pdf.

276. K.V. Bruk, "Energy Efficiency Laws in Russia – Starting the Journey," The Moscow Times (April 10, 2012), http://www.themoscowtimes.com/article/energy-efficiency-laws-in-russia--starting-the-journey/456427.html.

277. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2013, DOE/EIA-0383(2013) (Washington, DC: April 2013), pp. 63-64, http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/archive/aeo13/pdf/0383(2013).pdf.

278. European Commission, "Energy Efficiency: Energy Efficiency Directive," http://ec.europa.eu/energy/efficiency/eed/eed_en.htm.

279. N. Betlem, H. van Eck, R. Beuken, M. Heinemans, and L. van Diggelen, "Implementation of the EPBD in The Netherlands: Status in November 2010" (European Union, 2011), http://www.epbd-ca.org/Medias/Pdf/country_reports_14-04-2011/The_Netherlands.pdf.

280. U.S. Energy Information Administration, "Air conditioning in nearly 100 million U.S. homes," 2009 Residential Energy Consumption Survey, http://www.eia.gov/consumption/residential/reports/2009/air-conditioning.cfm.

281. M. Sivak, "Will AC Put a Chill on the Global Energy Supply?" American Scientist, Vol. 101, No. 5 (September-October 2013), p. 330, http://www.americanscientist.org/issues/pub/2013/5/will-ac-put-a-chill-on-the-global-energy-supply/1.

282. Research and Markets, "Opportunities in the Indian Air Conditioner Market" (December 2014), http://www.researchandmarkets.com/reports/3058379/opportunities-in-the-indian-air-conditioner-market

283. M. Sivak, "Will AC Put a Chill on the Global Energy Supply?" American Scientist, Vol. 101, No. 5 (September-October 2013), p. 330, http://www.americanscientist.org/issues/pub/2013/5/will-ac-put-a-chill-on-the-global-energy-supply/1. The study normalized for cooling degree days (CDD) but not for other factors, such as dwelling characteristics and aspects of climate other than temperature (for example, cloud cover and humidity).

284. S. Chidanamarri, "Air Conditioners Market in India" (Frost & Sullivan, March 18, 2013), https://www.frost.com/sublib/display-market-insight.do?id=275489972.

285. M. Sivak, "Will AC Put a Chill on the Global Energy Supply?" American Scientist, Vol. 101, No. 5 (September-October 2013), p. 330, http://www.americanscientist.org/issues/pub/2013/5/will-ac-put-a-chill-on-the-global-energy-supply/1.

286. TechSci Research, India Air Conditioners Market Forecast and Opportunities, 2020 (June 2015), http://www.reportlinker.com/p0881690-summary/India-Air-Conditioners-Market-Forecast-Opportunities.html.

287. S. Cox, "Cooling a Warming Planet: A Global Air Conditioning Surge," Yale Environment 360 (July 10, 2012), http://e360.yale.edu/feature/cooling_a_warming_planet_a_global_air_conditioning_surge/2550/

288. Hindustan Times, "Heatwave claims over 1,100 across country, temperatures soaring" (May 28, 2015), http://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/heat-wave-claims-over-750-lives-in-ap-telangana-temperatures-will-continue-to-soar-this-week/article1-1351358.aspx.

289. J. Samenow, "India's hellish heat wave, in hindsight," The Washington Post (June 10, 2015), http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/06/10/indias-hellish-heat-wave-in-hindsight/.

290. Hindustan Times, “India’s electricity woes: The heat's on, the power’s off” (May 25, 2015), http://www.hindustantimes.com/comment/india-s-electricity-woes-the-heat-s-on-the-power-s-off/article1-1351170.aspx.

291. M.A. McNeil and M. Iyer, Techno-Economic Analysis of Indian Draft Standard Levels for Room Air Conditioners, LBNL-64204 (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, March 2007), https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8wr8433w#page-1.

292. A. Phadke, N. Abhyankar, and N. Shah, Avoiding 100 New Power Plants by Increasing Efficiency of Room Air Conditioners in India: Opportunities and Challenges (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, June 2014), http://eetd.lbl.gov/sites/all/files/lbnl-6674e.pdf.

293. C. Naves, D. Amorim, et al., "Energy efficiency code in Brazil: Experiences in the first public building labeled in Brasilia," in Proceedings of the Fourth National Conference of IBPSA-USA (New York, NY: August 11-13, 2010), pp. 352-357.

Chapter 7 - Industrial sector energy consumption

294. Delivered energy is measured as the heat content of energy at the site of use. It includes the heat content of electricity (3,412 Btu/kWh) but does not include conversion losses at generation plants in the electricity sector. Delivered energy also includes fuels (natural gas, coal, liquids, and renewables) used for combined heat and power facilities (cogeneration) in the industrial sector.

295. Details of the industries included in gross output, along with their NACE 2 codes, can be found in the IEO2016 macroeconomic documentation.

296. D. Paul, "Modeling the U.S. Iron and Steel Industry," U.S. Energy Information Administration Task Order DE-DT0001606, Subtask 1.2 (Leidos: November 15, 2013).

297. D. Paul, "Final Report: Modeling the U.S. Pulp and Paper Industry," U.S. Energy Information Administration Task Order 7965, Subtask 17 (Leidos: July 15, 2015).

298. European Commission, "Report from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions: Renewable Energy Progress Report" (Brussels: March 27, 2013), p. 3, http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:52013DC0175&from=EN.

299. European Parliamentary Research Service, "EU climate and energy policies post-2020: Energy security, competitiveness and decarbonisation" (Briefing 24/03/2014), http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/bibliotheque/briefing/2014/130681/LDM_BRI(2014)130681_REV1_EN.pdf

300. European Parliament, "Energy Union: New impetus for coordination and integration of energy policies in the EU" (Briefing 5 March 2015: Tracking European Commission priority initiatives in 2015 – Number 1), http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2015/551310/EPRS_BRI(2015)551310_EN.pdf

301. World Steel Association, Steel Statistical Yearbook 2014 (Brussels, Belgium: worldsteel Committee on Economic Studies, October 2014), http://www.worldsteel.org/dms/internetDocumentList/statistics-archive/yearbook-archive/Steel-Statistical-Yearbook-2014/document/Steel-Statistical-Yearbook-2014.pdf.

302. "Blast furnace steel" refers to the process of reducing iron ore in a blast furnace and processing the molten steel in a basic oxygen furnace.

303. E. Worrell, P. Blinde, M. Neelis, E. Blomen, and E. Masanet, Energy Efficiency Improvement and Cost Saving Opportunities for the U.S. Iron and Steel industry: An ENERGY STAR® Guide for Energy and Plant Managers, LBNL-4779E (Berkeley, CA: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Environmental Technologies Division, October 2010), https://www.energystar.gov/ia/business/industry/Iron_Steel_Guide.pdf.

304. A. Hasanbeigi, Zeyi Jiang, and L. Price, "Why the energy use of Chinese steel industry may peak as early as 2015?" (Berkeley, CA: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, 2014), http://proceedings.eceee.org/visabstrakt.php?event=4&doc=3-008-14.

305. U.S. Energy Information Administration, "Recycling is the primary energy efficiency technology for aluminum and steel manufacturing" (Washington, DC: May 9, 2014), http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=16211.

306. Institute of Scrap Recycling Industries, Inc., Recycling Industry (undated), http://www.isri.org/recycling-industry; and U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, U.S. Energy Requirements for Aluminum Production: Historical Perspective, Theoretical Limits, and Current Practices (Washington, DC: February 2007), http://www1.eere.energy.gov/manufacturing/resources/aluminum/pdfs/al_theoretical.pdf.

307. U.S. Energy Information Administration, "Recycling is the primary energy efficiency technology for aluminum and steel manufacturing" (Washington, DC: May 9, 2014), http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=16211.

308. Bureau of International Recycling, Ferrous Division, World Steel Recycling in Figures 2008-2012, http://www.bdsv.org/downloads/weltstatistik_2008_2012.pdf.

309. United States Geological Survey, Mineral Industry of China Data for 2012, http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/country/2012/myb3-2012-ch.xls; and United States Geological Survey, Minerals Information, Recycling Statistics and Information, http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/recycle/.

310. U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, U.S. Energy Requirements for Aluminum Production: Historical Perspective, Theoretical Limits, and Current Practices (Washington, DC: February 2007), http://www1.eere.energy.gov/manufacturing/resources/aluminum/pdfs/al_theoretical.pdf.

311. J. Wubbeke and T. Heroth, "Challenges and political solutions for steel recycling in China," Resources, Conservation and Recycling, Vol. 87 (June 2014), pp. 1-7, http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921344914000627.

312. United States Geological Survey, Mineral Industry of China Data for 2012, http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/country/2012/myb3-2012-ch.xls.

313. Chuin-Wei Yap, "The Fall of Steel in China: a Primer" (The Wall Street Journal, September 8, 2015), http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2015/09/08/the-fall-of-steel-in-china-a-primer/.

314. G. Dolan, "Will Politics Push the Gas or Brakes on Methanol Fuel" (Methanol Institute, 2013), http://www.methanolfuels.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/15-Dolan_MI.pdf.

315. L.E. Apodaca, "2013 Minerals Yearbook: Nitrogen [Advance Release]" (Washington, DC: 2013), http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/nitrogen/myb1-2013-nitro.pdf.

316. L. Jin, "China's 12th 5-Year Plan: Sustainability"(KPMG Advisory China, Ltd: April 2011), https://www.kpmg.com/CN/en/IssuesAndInsights/ArticlesPublications/Documents/China-12th-Five-Year-Plan-Sustainability-201104-v2.pdf.

317. J. R. Bartels, "A Feasibility Study of Implementing an Ammonia Economy" (Iowa State University, 2008), http://lib.dr.iastate.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2119&context=etd.

318. C. Yang, "Coal Chemicals: China's High-Carbon Clean Coal Programme?" (Taylor and Francis Group: 2016), http://people.duke.edu/~cy42/C2C.pdf.

319. D. Hurd, S. Park, and J. Kan, China’s Coal to Olefins Industry (Deutsche Bank AG, Hong Kong: July 2, 2014), http://www.fullertreacymoney.com/system/data/files/PDFs/2014/July/3rd/0900b8c088667819.pdf.

320. S. Moore, "Issue Brief: Water Resources Issues, Policy and Politics in China" (Washington, DC: February 12, 2013), http://www.brookings.edu/research/papers/2013/02/water-politics-china-moore.

321. Z. Ronghji, "Report on the Outline of the Tenth Five Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development (2001)," http://www.gov.cn/english/official/2005-07/29/content_18334.htm.

322. For example, see Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit and China Dialogue, "China Heads to Low Carbon Future" (Davos, Switzerland: 2014), http://eciu.net/assets/ECIU_China-Doc-151015-FINAL.pdf.

323. ASEAN member countries include Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam.

324. ASEAN Centre for Energy, "Energy Efficiency and Conservation" (Jakarta, Indonesia: 2015), http://www.aseanenergy.org/programme-area/eec/.

325. N. Desbrosses, "Understanding electrification of industrial energy consumption in Europe," Leonardo ENERGY (February 2012), http://www.leonardo-energy.org/blog/understanding-electrification-industrial-energy-consumption-europe.

Chapter 8 - Transportation sector energy consumption

326. Other liquid fuels include natural gas plant liquids, biofuels, gas-to-liquids, and coal-to-liquids.

327. The value for revenue passenger-miles is calculated as: (number of revenue-paying passengers) × (total miles traveled).

328. Ton-mile is a common measure of freight movement, defined as the product of tons and miles, taking into account both distance moved and weight. For example, 100 ton-miles may be 1 ton of freight moved 100 miles or 100 tons of freight moved 1 mile.

329. The nonservice industrial sector includes agriculture, construction, mining, and manufacturing.

330. United Nations, Development Policy and Analysis Division, World Economic Situation and Prospects 2012, Chapter 2 (New York, NY: 2012), p. 44, http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/policy/wesp/wesp_archive/2012chap2.pdf.

Chapter 9 - Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions

331. In IEO2016, energy-related CO2 emissions are defined as emissions related to the combustion of fossil fuels (liquid fuels, natural gas, and coal) and emissions associated with petroleum feedstocks. Emissions from the flaring of natural gas are not included.

332. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, "United Nations Climate Change Conference, Paris, France," http://unfccc.int/files/meetings/paris_nov_2015/application/pdf/overview-schedule_cop21cmp11.pdf.

333. European Commission, "Climate Action: 2030 climate & energy framework" (September 24, 2015), http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/strategies/2030/index_en.htm.

334. The EU membership intersects with the countries included in the IEO2016 OECD Europe region, as follows: Norway and Turkey are included in OECD Europe but are not EU member countries; Bulgaria, Cyprus, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, and Romania are EU member countries but are not included in OECD Europe; Israel is reported in OECD Europe for statistical purposes.

335. Carbon Market Watch, "Policy Briefing: What's needed to fix the EU's carbon market: Recommendations for the Market Stability Reserve and future ETS reform proposals" (July 9, 2014), http://carbonmarketwatch.org/whats-needed-to-fix-the-eus-carbon-market-recommendations-for-the-market-stability-reserve-and-future-ets-reform-proposals/.

336. Bloomberg New Energy Finance, "EU Carbon Allowances Rise as More Bidders Participate in Sales" (September 8, 2015), www.bnef.com (subscription site).

337. Carbon Market Watch, "Policy Briefing: What’s needed to fix the EU's carbon market: Recommendations for the Market Stability Reserve and future ETS reform proposals" (July 9, 2014), http://carbonmarketwatch.org/whats-needed-to-fix-the-eus-carbon-market-recommendations-for-the-market-stability-reserve-and-future-ets-reform-proposals/.

338. Carbon Market Watch, "Policy Briefing: What's needed to fix the EU's carbon market: Recommendations for the Market Stability Reserve and future ETS reform proposals" (July 9, 2014), http://carbonmarketwatch.org/whats-needed-to-fix-the-eus-carbon-market-recommendations-for-the-market-stability-reserve-and-future-ets-reform-proposals/.

339. BusinessGreen, "EU carbon price tops €8 for first time since 2012" (July 21, 2015), http://www.businessgreen.com/bg/news/2418553/eu-carbon-price-tops-eur8-for-first-time-since-2012 (subscription site).

340. Climate Action Tracker, "European Union" (April 7, 2016), http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/eu.html.

341. The White House, Office of the Press Secretary, "FACT SHEET: U.S. Reports its 2025 Emissions Target to the UNFCCC" (Washington, DC: March 31, 2015), https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2015/03/31/fact-sheet-us-reports-its-2025-emissions-target-unfccc.

342. United States Environmental Protection Agency, "Clean Power Plan for Existing Power Plants" (Washington, DC: November 16, 2015), http://www2.epa.gov/cleanpowerplan/clean-power-plan-existing-power-plants.

343. U.S. Energy Information Administration, "Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan" (Washington, DC: May 22, 2015), http://www.eia.gov/analysis/requests/powerplants/cleanplan/.

344. See Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, "Emissions Scenarios," http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/sres/emission/index.php?idp=50.