–Eastern Europe, Middle
East, and India will be important suppliers to Europe
production expected to grow
–Europe’s exports will
›India, Middle East to supply Asia and Africa
›U.S. Gulf Coast, Virgin Islands to supply Latin
›U.S. Gulf Coast, Canada, Virgin Islands to supply U.S. East
–But Europe’s best market
may still be the U.S. – implying strong competition in East
SEven with flat to slightly declining European
transportation product demand, the demand for diesel is projected to
increase, while gasoline demand declines.Additional refinery upgrades to produce more distillate are not
expected to keep up with demand growth.As a result, more imports will be needed, albeit at a lower rate of
increase than in the past decade.
SThe recession’s impact on transportation fuels was less in
Europe than in the U.S.As the economy
recovers, diesel demand will grow again.
SU.S. refiners have demonstrated they can increase
distillate production, and can be an important source of European
imports.India and the Middle East,
both with expanding capacity, are also targeting Europe.All of this may make it less likely Europe
will see the supply situation as tight as it was in 2008.
SThe second bullet summarizes the point made in the last