Cycles: The Tide Turns, Clouding Trend Paths
•2008 Distillate Anomaly
–Unusually tight distillate market
–Gives glimpse of future
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•Recession hits
–Demand declines
–Utilization declines
–Price declines
–Stocks build
–Expansion plans delayed/cancelled
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Narrow vertical
S2008 was unusual in a number of ways.  The first was an unusually tight distillate market.  It provided insights into the kinds of price behavior we could see from time to time in the future, and it showed us what U.S. refiners could do to meet increasing distillate needs without further investments.

S2008 also came with the recession, which resulted in many market factors reversing.

SThe issue is attempting to determine what will rebound, and what has shifted permanently.