European Export Trend Continues in 2009 – But For How Long?
Source: IEA Data Base
SAs European gasoline exports have continued to grow, they have found some other markets beyond the U.S., which remains the primary destination.  But will these other locations continue to absorb more or even the same volumes?  Will European refiners find other locations?

SWe judge some of the locations to be subject to increased competition.  With U.S. capacity in surplus, U.S. refiners on the Gulf Coast may take the Mexican market.  The U.S. has historically exported some gasoline to Mexico from the Gulf Coast region.

SEuropean gasoline exports to the Middle East market could face increased competition from new capacity in India and also from the expansions planned in the Middle East itself.

SAfrica seems to be the market where refining is perhaps in least jeopardy from outside competition, but Middle East expansions could also compete there.

SEuropean refiners will continue to need to export gasoline as they run their facilities for their own regional distillate demand.  They will continue to be a very competitive supplier for the U.S. East Coast, and we do not see these European import volumes to the U.S. being displaced by U.S. Gulf Coast refiners.