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2	WTI Crude Oil Prices: 2001-2009
3	WTI Futures Curves: The Deferred Price Has Also Increased in Recent Years
4	World Oil Consumption Growth Expected to Accelerate in 2008-2009.
5	The Global Oil Market Balance is Expected to Loosen Slightly in 2009.
6	Estimates of Non-OPEC Supply Growth have been Continually Too Optimistic in Recent Years
7	Brazil, Former Soviet Union countries, and the U.S. Expected to Lead Non-OPEC Supply Growth.
8	OPEC Spare Capacity has Remained Low, with Most OPEC Countries Producing at Capacity.
9	OECD Commercial Stocks: from Record Highs to Near-Normal Levels
10	OECD Total Commercial Oil Stocks: About Average Levels This Year
11	U.S. Crude Inventories Expected to be in the Middle of the Normal Range
12	OECD European Commercial Crude Oil Stocks: About Average (Absolute Levels)
13	OECD Pacific Commercial Crude Oil Stocks: Below Average (Absolute Levels)
14	As Spare Capacity Increases in 2009, OECD Days Supply Will Remain Flat
15	Typical Economic Relationship Between Surplus Production Capacity and Price
16	Modeling Crude Price with Fundamentals
17	1980s U.S. Refining Capacity Surplus Disappeared in Last Half of 1990s
18	Seasonal Crude Use Tight in Early Winter
19	U.S. Four-Week Average Finished Gasoline Demand Has Shown Negative Growth This Year
20	U.S. Four-Week Average Total Gasoline Imports Were Lower Than Last Year in March and April
21	U.S. Gasoline Inventories are in the Average Range for This Time of Year
22	Crude Oil and U.S. Gasoline Price Outlook
23	U.S. Four-Week Average Total Distillate Demand Growth Has Also Been Negative
24	U.S. Four-Week Average Total Distillate Imports Are Lower This Year Than the Past 2 Years
25	Distillate Stocks Are Currently at the Bottom of the Average Range
26	New York Heating Oil - Gasoline Price Spread January 2000-present
27	European Distillate Demand Continues to Grow
28	OECD European Commercial Distillate Stocks: Above Average (Absolute Levels)
29	Europe – New York Heating Oil Price Spread January 2000-present
30	Chinese Oil Demand Shows Strong Yearly Growth in Recent Years
31	Much of China’s Oil Demand Growth in Last 2 Years Has Come From Gasoline and Diesel
32	OECD Pacific Commercial Distillate Stocks: Below Average (Absolute Levels)
33	Singapore – Gulf Coast Heating Oil Price Spread January 2000-present
34	2008 First Quarter U.S. Distillate Exports Unusually High
35	U.S. Distillate Price Outlook
36	Conclusion: $100 or $150? The crude outlook remains relatively tight with little supply or demand relief in the very short term. Non OPEC supply lagging demand increases – but supplies on the horizon next year OPEC unwillingness to increase production Inventories indicating tight balances currently But demand is shifting While evidence indicates room still exists for more increases, factors are evolving to move prices back some. (Demand slowing in developed countries, price subsidies being lifted) Watch distillate demand...