|SEIA’s AEO 2007 Reference Case has distillate and jet fuel
averaging 2.0% annual growth over the next 10 years, while gasoline only
grows 1.1%. Furthermore the volume of
increase of distillate and jet fuel together is 1.16 million barrels per day,
which exceeds the 1.02 million barrel per day increase in gasoline.
|SThus, the demand mix is continue to shift somewhat towards
distillate, but not nearly to the degree that Europe is experiencing.
|SThe shift that is of most interest to U.S. refiners is the
shift in supply, particularly the potential increased use of biofuels. While biodiesel is forecast to increase a
small amount over the next 10 years, ethanol use in gasoline is where the
large change is occurring.