NPRA 2007 Annual Meeting
Diesel Prices Reflected ULSD Transition – But Note ’04 & ’05 
Notes: LSD – Low sulfur diesel; HO – Heating Oil.                                       Source: Bloomberg monthly average spot prices
SNow we turn to prices.  How much of this year’s high diesel prices was caused by the transition to ULSD?  Certainly some of it, but perhaps not as much as some people might think.

SThis chart shows the difference between 500 ppm low-sulfur diesel (LSD) and heating oil.  LSD compared to No. 2 heating oil is shown in red.  Indeed we see a spike in both LSD and ULSD in 2006 as we went into the ULSD transition.  ULSD could have pulled LSD along.  But note that 2004 and 2005 (apart from the hurricane) had significantly higher LSD diesel premiums over heating oil than seen in prior years.  During 2004 and 2005, the diesel-heating oil difference more than doubled from what had been.

SThe increasing diesel value over heating oil seems to reflecting a growing tightness in that market, which we will discuss shortly.

SWhile the difference between ULSD and heating oil can be seen on the chart, it is difficult to interpret the difference between LSD and ULSD prices during this transition.  Local dislocations and the smaller volumes of LSD create short-term variations that may disappear as the market settles down.