|SAs we think back through the factors that have
affected capacity, we are left with much uncertainty about whether or not
capacity investments will realize a reasonable return in the future.
|SFor much of the 1990ís returns on refining
investments were not attractive.
|SThose returns improved since 2000, but not
smoothly or predictably.† Price
spikes during the spring and late summer in gasoline, and winter distillate
price spikes in the past several years contributed to improved returns, but
that is not a predictable environment.