SAs we think back through the factors that have affected capacity, we are left with much uncertainty about whether or not capacity investments will realize a reasonable return in the future.
	SFor much of the 1990’s returns on refining investments were not attractive.
	SThose returns improved since 2000, but not smoothly or predictably.  Price spikes during the spring and late summer in gasoline, and winter distillate price spikes in the past several years contributed to improved returns, but that is not a predictable environment.